Re-energising Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa

Re-energising Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa Date | 23 September 2025

Tomorrow (24 September), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1303rd session in New York, on the margins of the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, at the level of Heads of State and Government, to deliberate on the theme ‘Re-energising Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa.’

The Chairperson of the PSC for September 2025, Angola’s President João Lourenço, will preside over the session and deliver the opening statement, followed by an introductory statement from Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Chairperson of the AU Commission. António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN), is also expected to deliver a statement. Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), may deliver a presentation on strategies for effective conflict resolution in Africa.

The session appears to be Angola’s signature event during its chairship of the PSC in September. The theme of this session resonates well with President Lourenço’s role as AU Champion for Peace and Reconciliation and his pivotal mediation in the conflict in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo through the Luanda Process. It is expected that tomorrow’s deliberation will present an opportunity for Heads of State and Government to reassess the AU’s conflict resolution efforts and reflect on critical lessons and best practices for enhancing the PSC’s mandate in this area.

The session comes at a critical moment for the AU and its conflict prevention and resolution mandate. Conflicts across the continent are surging, spreading geographically, and causing devastating human and socio-economic impacts. At the same time, the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA)—AU’s framework for promoting peace, security and stability—has struggled to provide effective responses. In crises ranging from Libya and Sudan to tensions between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, external actors have increasingly assumed a lead role in peace efforts, while the AU has increasingly assumed a marginal role. This decline in African agency is unfolding against a wider backdrop of intensifying global rivalries, the erosion of multilateralism, and the expanding involvement of foreign actors in African conflicts or crises. These developments highlight the urgent need to recalibrate APSA and restore the AU’s role as a leading actor in resolving conflicts on the continent.

These developments make tomorrow’s session particularly significant. A key focus of the deliberations of the session is therefore expected to be how to reverse the downward spiral in AU’s role in conflict prevention and resolution and explore ways and means of advancing effective conflict prevention and resolution strategies and interventions. As a summit-level meeting of the PSC, the outcome of this meeting could also set the framework and inform the ongoing APSA review process.

One aspect of the deliberation is expected to highlight the challenges undermining the AU’s conflict prevention and resolution role. Several interlinked factors stand out, the first being the lack of strategic leadership. In earlier years, the AU demonstrated its ability to initiate credible mediation. The High-Level Implementation Panel on Sudan and South Sudan is a good example as an AU conflict resolution mechanism that highlights the key elements of a successful peace process: strong PSC direction, capable and committed mediators, sustained engagement and robust wider continental and international support. In 2012, it produced a roadmap so credible that even the UN Security Council endorsed it and helped to pull Sudan and South Sudan from the brink of a full-blown war. By contrast, recent AU efforts— Such as the one on Sudan—have been fragmented and ineffective. Despite multiple continental and regional initiatives, no single credible peace process has emerged, resulting in duplication, lack of sustained effort and a strategy that garnered the commitment of key Sudanese political and armed actors and the support of regional and international actors.

The AU once drew strength from putting in place processes that focus on political dialogue, mediation, and negotiation. This has gradually given way to a performative issuance of statements expressing concern or calling for peace and a tendency to focus on securitised peace operations and peace enforcement instruments—resource-intensive and often ill-suited to the complex socio-political dynamics driving most of the continent’s conflicts, particularly in the context of terrorism and violent extremism.

Over the years, the AU has also become more reactive, with interventions typically coming only after conflicts escalate. Inconsistencies in how the AU addresses conflict or crisis situations and applies its norms have also eroded its credibility. Structural setbacks to the Continental Early Warning System due to the removal of the conflict prevention division housing it following AU institutional reforms, the weak link between early warning and early action, and the lack of confidence in AU processes and political denialism of Member States in the face of looming crises have further obstructed timely responses.

There is also a coordination and policy coherence gap between the AU and the Regional Economic Communities and Mechanisms (RECs/RMs), even though the PSC Protocol envisages RECs/RMs as integral parts of the APSA. Despite efforts to strengthen coordination through agreed modalities for enhanced engagement, the current state of collaboration remains far from effective. In practice, the absence of strong coordination has often led to competing or fragmented initiatives in response to conflicts and crises on the continent. This was evident in the case of Sudan, where both the AU and the regional bloc IGAD launched parallel mediation tracks in the early days of the conflict. Such uncoordinated efforts undermine coherence and hinder launching a credible, unified peacemaking initiative, while providing space for foreign actors to step in and fill the vacuum.

Another challenge relates to the rapidly changing security dynamics on the continent, which have grown increasingly complex over the years. Between 2013 and 2023, conflict incidents more than doubled, with sharp spikes after 2019. While coups and interstate tensions have resurfaced, terrorism has emerged as the most pressing threat. Conflicts are increasingly driven by non-state actors in contexts marked by governance crises, organised crime, climate shocks, and disruptive technologies.

The AU’s role has also been further eroded by foreign interference. Africa has become a theatre of renewed global rivalries, with external actors backing factions and shaping political outcomes.

Tomorrow’s deliberation will additionally explore ways of addressing these challenges and identify strategies for repositioning the APSA and restoring Africa’s agency in conflict prevention and resolution. There is a pressing need for the AU to rebuild its agency through credible peacemaking processes and the restoration of the primacy of diplomacy as the main conflict and governance crises management and resolution tool. In this context, AU and its PSC should provide technically sound and diplomatically robust strategic guidance and oversight to peacemaking initiatives, while ensuring effective coordination with all relevant actors. Member States, for their part, should reaffirm their commitment to AU instruments and work collectively. At the same time, the AU Commission should strengthen its relationship with Member States and restore trust through the impartial delivery of its responsibilities and the provision of credible technical input.

Conflict prevention should also be placed at the core of AU’s peace and security work by strengthening the credibility of early warning, enhancing the profile, standing, and working methods of the Panel of the Wise, and increasing the use of non-intrusive and discrete preventive diplomacy. Conflict resolution, meanwhile, should be based on a clear strategy tailored to each situation, backed by adequate technical, diplomatic, and financial resources. Similarly, the AU needs to shift from a security-heavy posture toward a comprehensive approach that restores the primacy of politics. Given that many conflict dynamics are increasingly transregional and often require the engagement of more than one REC/RM, a more effective and conflict-sensitive working arrangement is needed—one that leverages and prioritises coordination between the AU and the concerned RECs/RMs and incentivises co-leadership and joint action rather than the tension-inducing principle of subsidiarity.

The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to welcome the ongoing APSA review. The Council may reaffirm the importance of reclaiming the AU’s agency and credibility in conflict prevention and resolution. It may underscore the need to restore diplomacy as the primary tool of conflict management and call on the AU Commission to focus its attention on the enhanced use of the diplomatic tools of persuasion, consensus building and mobilisation of support for conflict prevention and resolution. It may also call for consistent application of AU norms and even-handed response to conflicts and crises. The PSC may also reaffirm the commitment of the AU and its member states to the principle of non-indifference and the imperative of protection of civilians. It may emphasise that appointments for preventive or peace-making efforts prioritise gravitas, diplomatic skills and a track record of commitment to peace-making. The PSC may also call upon foreign actors to refrain from interfering in the continent’s conflicts, stressing that such interference is exacerbating the humanitarian toll and complicating their resolution. In addition, the PSC may urge Member States and RECs/RMs to reaffirm their commitment to the principles and norms of the AU. Finally, it may emphasise the importance of strong collaboration and coordination with regional and international actors in resolving conflicts on the continent, while underscoring that all peacemaking initiatives respect the AU’s leading role and leverage and respect the AU’s norms.

For a more detailed discussion on re-energising conflict prevention and resolution in Africa, please refer to our latest Policy Brief on the subject.