Tomorrow (19 February), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene an open session on the ‘Nexus between Climate Change, Peace, and Security in Africa.’

The session commences with opening remarks by Obeida A. El Dandarawy, Permanent Representative of the Arab Republic of Egypt to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for February. This is followed by an introductory remark from the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye. A presentation by Moses Vilakati, AU Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment may also feature. In addition, statements are expected from AU Member States, representatives of the Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs), and representatives of the United Nations Office to the African Union (UNOAU).

This meeting builds on the PSC’s long-standing engagement with the climate-security nexus since its 585^th session in March 2016, through which the Council committed to holding annual deliberations on climate change and peace and security. In the past two years, the PSC has gone further, dedicating two sessions to the theme each year. This will mark the PSC’s 18^th  such session, including its 1301^st Session(September 2025) and 1263^rd Session(March 2025), both of which reaffirmed climate change as a risk multiplier that exacerbates political, socio-economic, and governance vulnerabilities, rather than a direct conflict trigger. Quantifying this effect, recent analysis of data from 51 African countries spanning 1960 to 2023 highlights the profound socioeconomic and political risks linked to rising temperatures. In the continent’s poorest nations, a 1°C increase is associated with a 10-percentage-point higher likelihood of exacerbating existing vulnerabilities, sometimes leading to civil conflict, whereas wealthier countries show no comparable vulnerability. Moreover, higher temperatures are linked to slower economic growth, reducing GDP growth rates by up to 4 percentage points in hotter years relative to cooler ones.

These trends are consistent with global scientific assessments, particularly findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which indicate that Africa is warming faster than the global average and is experiencing increasingly frequent and intense extreme climate events, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and cyclones. Additionally, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reports that climate-related disasters in Africa have increased fivefold over the last 50 years.

The peace and security implications of the combination of political, institutional and development fragilities and tensions on the one hand and this climatic trend are stark. It is this interplay, not climate change in itself, that explains why 12 of the International Rescue Committee’s (IRC) 16 epicentres of crisis, countries marked by intertwined climate vulnerability, extreme poverty, and armed conflict, are in Africa. This underscores the need to prioritise the factors that perpetuate these vulnerabilities, account for climate impacts, and address climate change through broader policy processes.

Climate stress increasingly intersects with armed conflict, weak governance, livelihood loss and displacement, deepening instability in regions such as the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and parts of Western, Central and Southern Africa. As of early October 2025, OCHA reports that severe flooding in South Sudan had affected more than 639,000 people across 26 counties, intensifying competition over land and water already strained by drought and deepening post-conflict fragility. These climate-driven livelihood losses are fueling intercommunal violence and the growth of armed rivalries, reinforcing cycles of insecurity amid rising political tensions among rival political forces in the country.

Yet the relationship between climate and security is not one-directional. War and conflicts, as well as political instability, also contribute to making climatic stresses much more devastating. Thus, on this flip side, the ongoing conflict in Sudan has intensified the effects of prolonged drought, devastating crops and livestock, and gravely eroding livelihoods and survival capacities.

These continent-wide dynamics are increasingly manifesting in specific national contexts, where climate-induced environmental stress directly amplifies localised tensions and entrenched security threats. For instance, recent research indicates that the degradation of land and water has heightened competition between farming and pastoralist communities in Nigeria, and the research further highlights that ‘the clashes over scarce resources now claim more lives annually than the Boko Haram insurgency itself’. The caveat in this respect is that it is not merely the climate change impact in intensifying competition over resources that makes the ensuing clashes deadlier. What made climate-induced inter-communal clashes over scarce resources deadlier is their combination with the widespread availability of small arms and light weapons.

Against this background, the PSC’s previous sessions, particularly the 1301^st session of September 2025, were notable for situating climate change firmly within a broader climate policy framework anchored in development, justice, and equity, focusing on loss and damage, adaptation financing, and the differentiated vulnerabilities of least-developed and conflict-affected African states. In this regard, the Council is expected to discuss the implications of anchoring climate-security responses within a broader justice-oriented framework. This includes ensuring effective implementation of COP29 commitments on adaptation, loss and damage, and associated financing.

Another dimension of the climate-security nexus relates to access to climate finance. As shown below, fragile and conflict-affected countries, which are the most vulnerable to climate change impacts, have the most need for climate finance. However, their risk profile means that they have the least access to climate finance. It is therefore of particular interest for the PSC to reflect on how access to climate finance can be expanded, paying particular attention to fragile and conflict-affected countries.

Tomorrow’s session is also expected to get an update on the work for the finalisation of the Common African Position (CAP) on Climate Change, Peace and Security. It is to be recalled that updates provided during the 1301^st session indicated that the CAP is now expected to be concluded ahead of COP31, reflecting the need for input of member states, deeper consultation and alignment with existing AU frameworks, including the Africa Group of Negotiators. The delay also underscored ongoing political sensitivities, but it also highlights the strategic importance of ensuring Member State ownership and coherence across Africa’s climate and peace architectures. Since the last session and the update from Adoye, the draft CAP was presented at a technical meeting held in Nairobi, Kenya. The technical meeting held in Nairobi, Kenya on 25-27 November 2025 under the title “AU member States Validation Workshop on the Draft Common African Position on the Climate Change, peace and security nexus (CAP-CPS)’ concluded without validating the draft. The outcome statement outlined the five-step process roadmap to finalise the work.

Financing for adaptation is also expected to feature during the session. Despite being among the most climate-vulnerable regions, Africa continues to receive a disproportionately small share of global climate finance; according to the United Nations Development Programme, nearly 90% of climate funding is concentrated in high- and middle-income, high-emitting countries, while fragile states, where climate risks intersect most acutely with conflict and governance challenges, receive the least support. This imbalance is particularly stark in conflict-affected settings, where communities obtain on average only one-third of the per-capita adaptation funding available in non-conflict contexts, and countries facing protracted crises continue to receive lower levels of climate-related Official Development Assistance despite their heightened vulnerability. Against this backdrop, the PSC is likely to revisit the outcome of COP30 in Belém, where nations pledged to triple adaptation funding by 2035, a timetable that many African experts deem too slow given the continent’s acute climate vulnerabilities, and most climate finance remains loan-heavy rather than grant-based, further risking debt stress for African states. The Council is therefore expected to focus on the urgent need to honour existing commitments, reform barriers to accessing climate funds, and acknowledge that the persistent under-financing of adaptation is not merely a development challenge but an escalating driver of fragility, fiscal stress, and long-term peace and security risks across Africa that is not without global consequences.

Loss and damage is another policy issue of urgency expected to feature during tomorrow’s session. With climate-induced floods, droughts and cyclones causing repeated destruction of infrastructure, livelihoods and ecosystems, Africa continues to incur billions of dollars in losses annually. The African Development Bank estimates that climate change already costs African economies 2–5% of GDP each year, for some even reaching double digits. The PSC is thus likely to stress the need for accelerated operationalisation and capitalisation of the loss and damage fund in ways that are responsive to African realities.

Operationally, the session is expected to advance discussions on mainstreaming climate considerations into the AU’s peace and security architecture. This includes integrating climate-conflict indicators into early warning systems, strengthening preparedness and disaster risk reduction, and framing adaptation and governance as peacebuilding strategies. Notably, previous PSC sessions have recognised mobility and transhumance as legitimate adaptation strategies, calling for improved cross-border governance and regional cooperation to reduce climate-induced tensions, an approach of particular relevance to the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Building on this evolving operational focus, the PSC is expected to articulate more concrete follow-up measures, including clearer guidance on implementing climate-security risk assessments in situations under its agenda, strengthening coordination between early warning and response mechanisms, and enhancing collaboration with regional actors to translate these policy commitments into practical preventive and resilience-building actions on the ground.

The session may also revisit the PSC’s earlier call for ensuring that climate-peace and security considerations are fully integrated into continental and global climate policy processes, including the work of CAHOSCC and Africa’s engagement in upcoming multilateral forums such as the G20 and COP31. This remains critical for ensuring that Africa’s concerns around the security dimension of climate and the requisite measures to address the security risks of climate are not marginalised in global policy processes that tend to be increasingly dominated by mitigation and market-based approaches.

The outcome of the session is expected to be a communiqué. The PSC is likely to reaffirm its longstanding position that climate change constitutes a risk multiplier that exacerbates existing political, socio-economic and governance vulnerabilities across Africa and is not a direct cause of conflicts. In this regard, the Council is expected to reiterate its call for the expedited finalisation of the Common African Position (CAP) on Climate Change, Peace and Security within this framework and stress the importance of inclusive consultations, strong Member State ownership, and coherence with existing continental frameworks and Africa’s global climate diplomacy. The PSC may also underline that climate-security engagement should complement, rather than substitute, broader climate policy processes and remain anchored in the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and Africa’s development priorities. The Council is also expected to call for concrete steps to operationalise the mainstreaming of climate considerations into conflict prevention and peacebuilding efforts, including the integration of climate-conflict indicators into the Continental Early Warning System, the development of standardised climate-security risk assessment tools, and stronger coordination between early warning, humanitarian and response mechanisms. In addition, the PSC is expected to express concern over the widening gap between Africa’s climate needs and available financing, and call for scaled-up, predictable and accessible climate finance, particularly in grant form and with particular attention to the needs of fragile and conflict-affected states. PSC may also call for the capitalisation of the loss and damage fund and the adoption of debt suspension clauses when a country is hit by climate-induced disasters. Finally, the PSC is expected to call for enhanced coordination between the AU, Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms, Member States and international partners, and to stress the importance of ensuring that Africa’s climate-security priorities are effectively reflected in global climate negotiations and multilateral processes, including through engagement with continental mechanisms such as the Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change.

Tomorrow (17 September), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene an open session on the ‘Nexus between Climate Change, Peace, and Security in Africa.’

The session commences with opening remarks by Miguel Bembe, Permanent Representative of Angola to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for September, followed by an introductory remark from the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye and a presentation by Moses Vilakati, AU Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment, among others, to provide an update on the outcomes of the 2nd Africa Climate Summit held on 8–10 September 2025 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Additionally, statements will be made by representatives of PSC member states, AU member states, and Regional Economic Communities. It is also anticipated that Amani Africa will deliver a presentation during the session.

Since the PSC’s 585^th session of March 2016, which decided to hold an annual session on climate change, it has held over 16 sessions on climate, peace and security. Tomorrow’s session is the second time that the PSC convenes on the theme of climate, peace and security during the year. Although framed differently, the last PSC meeting constituting the 1263^rd session held in March 2025 was also focused on the link between climate and peace and security, focusing on the challenges climate poses to peace and security. As captured in the analysis of the outcome of the session, the Council identified several key priorities: closing the adaptation financing gap, addressing loss and damage, ensuring a just transition, strengthening African financing mechanisms, and scaling up climate-security initiatives across the continent, including early warning and preparedness.

The PSC is also expected to follow up on its request from its last session on the matter for the AU Commission to expedite the finalisation of the study on the climate, peace and security nexus. It is to be recalled that it was during its 1240^th session on 30 October 2024 that the PSC discussed the Common African Position on Climate, Peace and Security (CAP-CPS). During its last session, the PSC emphasised that the finalisation has to be undertaken ‘following due process, and taking into consideration the contributions from all AU Member States, the African Group of Negotiators, and Regional Economic Communities and Regional Mechanisms for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution (RECs/RMs).’ While this process remains a work in progress, during the 2^nd Africa Climate Summit held on 8-10 September in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, a pre-summit forum on media and climate and peace and security was held and culminated in the adoption of a declaration.

Similar to many of the PSC sessions, including the last one, tomorrow’s session is expected to highlight the ways in which climate affects peace and security. Paradoxically, Africa contributes just 4% of global carbon emissions. Yet, it is one of the parts of the world that bears the brunt of the climate change crisis and its peace and security implications. For example, the International Rescue Committee indicated that seven of the ten countries most at risk from climate-related disasters are situated in Africa; sixteen countries are caught in the intersection of climate vulnerability and armed conflict, representing a staggering 44% of people impacted by natural disasters and 79% of those in humanitarian need. One in four of those countries is in West Africa: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria.

This meeting comes shortly after the Africa Climate Summit 2 (ACS2), which was held last week (8-10 September 2025), in Addis Ababa under the theme ‘Accelerating Global Climate Solutions: Financing for Africa’s Resilient and Green Development.’ The Summit provided a platform for Africa to articulate its climate priorities, while also emphasising the necessity of home-grown solutions that drive adaptation and system-wide transformation in the lead-up to COP30. Of significance in this respect is the focus on financing and Africa’s role in climate action.

The summit adopted ‘Addis Ababa Declaration on Accelerating Global Climate Solutions: Financing for Africa’s Resilient and Green Development,’ which called for Africa-led solutions and fair finance. High-level statements underscored climate justice: AU Chairperson Mahamoud Ali Youssouf insisted that climate finance be ‘fair, significant and predictable,’ while Kenya’s President Ruto emphasised that ‘Africa is a source of solutions.’ Concretely, African development banks and lenders pledged up to USD 100 billion for a green industrialisation drive. The Africa Climate Innovation Compact (ACIC) and the African Climate Facility (ACF) were launched, aiming to mobilise USD 50 billion annually to accelerate African-led innovations in key sectors such as energy, agriculture, transport, water, and resilient infrastructure. The ACIC sets an ambitious goal of delivering 1,000 climate solutions by 2030, targeting to lead transformative climate action by leveraging home-grown science and entrepreneurship.

The ACS2 outcomes, the Declaration and the Compact highlight Africa’s ambition to turn the tide, leveraging its own agency to push global negotiators toward scaled-up, grant-based financing, nature-based solutions, and market reforms ahead of COP30. The PSC is expected to welcome these outcomes of the ACS2 and significantly urge prompt follow-up for translating commitments and ambition to action.

Building on the momentum and commitments made at the ACS2, the PSC session is expected to deepen discussions on the climate, peace, and security nexus by advancing priorities, building on its previous sessions. This includes advancing climate finance priorities to address the conflict risks posed by climate change impacts and to support integrated continental strategies ahead of COP30 negotiations.

The first aspect of the issues of financing is expected to draw attention to the imperative for narrowing down the enormous financing gap for climate action in Africa. It is to be recalled that at COP29 held in Baku in November 2024, leaders agreed to triple the annual global climate finance goal from USD 100 billion to USD 300 billion by 2035 and endorsed carbon trading rules under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Nevertheless, many African nations considered this target insufficient, as they had been pushing for a more ambitious target of USD 1.3 trillion annually. Even then, for tomorrow’s session, a lot of the emphasis is expected to be placed on the necessity of those most responsible honouring existing financing commitments. What makes this particularly pressing is the major policy changes in global development financing. Major funders have announced aid cuts: the OECD projects overall ODA could drop 9 -17% in 2025, with bilateral aid to Africa outside of North Africa possibly falling 16 -28%. This is expected to accentuate existing fiscal pressures facing African countries, which are facing a loss of an increasing percentage of their GDP to climate-induced disasters and in efforts to respond to such disasters.

Related to the issue of financing is loss and damage. As a continent where the increasing frequency and ferocity of climate events are resulting in increasing loss and damage, the imperative of capitalisation at an expanded scale and operationalisation of the loss and damage fund cannot be overemphasised.

Also, of concern for tomorrow’s session from a climate, peace and security nexus perspective is the question of access to climate finance. This concerns the need for easing the conditions and processes for accessing climate funds, particularly for fragile and conflict-affected countries facing increasing climate stress. Available statistics show that African countries, particularly those most affected by climate, fragility and conflict, receive the least climate funding on account of the prohibitive nature of the conditions of access to existing climate funds for these countries.

The other aspect of the session may focus on how to take the agenda of climate change and security forward, both at a global and continental level. This necessitates attention to integrating climate adaptation and resilience into peace and security frameworks, including strengthening early warning systems with climate-conflict indicators, to fostering support for building resilience for the most vulnerable regions of the continent in key social and economic sectors such as agriculture and rural economy, and promoting regional cooperation to build the capacity of vulnerable populations as well as explore ways to embed climate considerations into peacebuilding and development strategies.

Additionally, it may follow up on the decision of its 1114^th session that called for the inclusion of discussions on climate and security in the agenda of the meetings of the AU Assembly Committee of African Heads of States and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC). A necessary corollary to this is the need for ensuring the full integration of the climate, peace and security nexus in climate policy processes. This is a prerequisite for ensuring that the security dimension of climate change is fully factored in policy initiatives across the mitigation, adaptation, financing, loss and damage and transition streams of the COP processes.

The expected outcome of tomorrow’s PSC session is a communiqué reaffirming the imperative of enhanced cooperation among AU institutions, Member States, RECs, and partners to mainstream climate change into peace and security strategies, strengthen early warning systems, and improve climate communication for disaster preparedness at local, national, regional, and continental levels. The PSC is expected to reiterate its earlier request for the finalisation of the study on the climate, peace and security nexus, while welcoming efforts to advance the agenda through, among others, the adoption of the pre-summit declaration on media, climate, peace and security. Regarding financing, the PSC is likely to reiterate Africa’s demand for scaled-up climate finance, including grants for adaptation and loss and damage, while endorsing Member States’ positions from ACS2, such as the $100 billion green investment pact and the $50 billion African Climate Innovation Compact, and urging partners to close the remaining USD 3 trillion gap. The Council may further call on development banks, the private sector, and national governments to deliver on these commitments, emphasising the need for translating existing commitments into action. Finally, the PSC, echoing its 1114^th session, may also call for ensuring the full integration of the climate, peace and security nexus in climate policy processes as a necessary condition for addressing the peace and security implications of climate across all the work streams of the COP processes.

Tomorrow (6 March), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene its 1263^rd session to discuss ‘Climate Change: Challenges to Peace and Security in Africa.’

Following opening remarks by Mohammed Arrouchi, Permanent Representative of Morocco to the AU and the Chairperson of the PSC for March, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to make a statement. In addition, the AU Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment may also deliver a statement. A representative of the UN may also make a statement.

The PSC last convened a session dedicated to climate change, peace, and security during its 1240^th session on 30 October 2024 to discuss the Common African Position on Climate, Peace and Security (CAP-CPS). The consultation was intended to create a shared understanding among PSC members of the intricate nexus between climate change, peace, and security in Africa while gathering feedback to refine the Common African Position. Emphasising the importance of the CAP-CPS as a guiding framework, the session highlighted the necessity for effective collaboration among the AU, regional stakeholders, national governments, and international partners. In tomorrow’s session, the PSC may follow up on progress toward finalising the CAP-CPS for timely adoption, particularly in light of upcoming international events such as the 2025 G20 Summit in South Africa and the UN Climate Conference (COP30) scheduled for 10-21 November 2025 in Belém, Brazil.

Climate change continues to pose a significant threat to regional peace, security and development. The impacts of climate change, such as forced migration, food insecurity and economic disruptions, have the potential to exacerbate existing conflicts and introduce new vulnerabilities. Floods, cyclones, droughts and other climate-related shocks continue to severely affect the African continent. The effects of climate change continue to threaten regional peace, security and development. With rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme weather events, human health, food and water security, and socio-economic development continue to be threatened. Ironically, Africa contributes just 4% of global carbon emissions despite being the continent that suffers the most from climate change. The International Rescue Committee indicated that seven of the ten countries most at risk from climate-related disasters are situated in Africa; sixteen countries are caught in the intersection of climate vulnerability and armed conflict, representing a staggering 44% of people impacted by natural disasters and 79% of those in humanitarian need. One in four of those countries are in West Africa: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria.

In 2024, the Sahel region experienced devastating floods, which resulted in significant loss of life and destruction of cropland. Nearly 400 people died in Niger, and more than 1.5 million others were affected by floods triggered by last year’s torrential rains. A further 405 were injured, and more than 200,000 households – amounting to 1,526,653 people. Still, in the same year, it was reported that the Southern Africa region experienced its worst drought in over 100 years. The 2023/24 rainy season triggered widespread drought conditions across the region, driven by the El Niño climate phenomenon of 2023–2024, which was officially declared by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in July 2023, marking the first major El Niño event since 2018–2019. This declaration followed observations of sustained warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. Concurrently, elevated temperatures exacerbated water stress, compounding challenges for regional food security.

Another important issue worth considering in tomorrow’s deliberation is climate financing. As major European donors scale back assistance and climate financing, African governments face increased pressure to invest in disaster response capacities and identify alternative funding sources. President Donald Trump’s 2025 budget proposal, on the other hand, to reduce the U.S. humanitarian aid by 42% threatens to cripple Africa’s capacity to recover from climate-driven catastrophes, including the intensified droughts, cyclones and flash floods that have displaced over 15 million people across the continent since 2023. This policy shift seeks to slash foreign aid budgets by over 90%, specifically targeting the elimination of multiyear contracts and grants that do not align with the ‘America First’ agenda. This would result in a USD 54 billion reduction in overseas development and aid programs, disproportionately impacting African nations already reeling from intensified droughts and floods linked to climate change.

It should also be recalled that one of the key outcomes of COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November 2024, was the decision to triple climate finance for developing countries, raising the annual target from USD 100 billion to USD 300 billion by 2035. Nevertheless, many African nations considered this target insufficient, as they had been pushing for a more ambitious target of USD 1.3 trillion annually. Through the adoption of the ‘New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG),’ it was decided, among other things, that ‘the new collective quantified goal on climate finance will support the implementation of developing country Parties’, inter alia, nationally determined contributions, national adaptation plans and adaptation communications, including those submitted as adaptation components of nationally determined contributions; contribute to increasing and accelerating ambition; and reflect the evolving needs and priorities of developing country Parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and have significant capacity constraints, such as the least developed countries and small island developing States.’ To this end, the urgency to enhance resilience against climate-related disasters has never been more critical. African nations must now prioritise building robust infrastructure and systems to manage and mitigate the impacts of these events. Additionally, seeking innovative funding avenues, such as public-private partnerships, regional cooperation and international collaborations, will be essential to ensure preparedness and sustainable development in the face of climate challenges.

This PSC session, therefore, aims to highlight the imperative for collaborations and coordination among security, humanitarian, development and climate actors to develop effective responsive and preventative strategies which will bolster and fortify community resilience in the face of escalating climate impacts. It is expected that the session will not only provide a shared understanding among PSC Members of the complex nexus between climate change, peace and security in Africa but also a platform for the identification of opportunities to address climate-related security risks in Africa. The PSC may also take this opportunity to reiterate its recurrent request to the Chairperson of the Commission to appoint an AU Special Envoy for climate change and security.

The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communiqué. The PSC may underline the imperative of enhanced cooperation and collaboration in advancing the Climate, peace and security nexus between and among the AU institutions, Member States, RECs/REMs and other like-minded stakeholders. In this regard, it may highlight the importance of Member States, RECs/RMs and AU partners to actively pursue integrated approaches to boost climate change resilience and to pay particular attention to prevention and further strengthening the humanitarian-development nexus, as well as to improve communication on climate change phenomena such as drought, cyclones and floods with a view to effectively ensuring disaster preparedness and risk reduction at local, national, regional and continental levels. It is also expected that the Council will underscore the importance of the AU Commission to mainstream climate change in all its activities, particularly in early warning and prevention of climate change-related violent conflicts. Additionally, the PSC may highlight the need for the AU Commission and Member States to share experiences and best practices in addressing the adverse effects of climate change and instituting holistic national planning for development that addresses climate adaptation. It may also request the Commission to expedite the finalisation of the Common African Position on Climate Change, Peace, and Security and submit it for consideration and adoption.

Tomorrow (30 October), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1240^th session to hold consultations on the Common African Position vis-à-vis climate change, peace and security (CAP-CCPS).

The session is expected to commence with opening remarks from Mohamed Omar Gad, Permanent Representative of Egypt to the AU and chair of the PSC for October, followed by statements from Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS). Representatives from the African Group of Negotiators and the Department for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment (DARBE) may also deliver statements during the session.

It is recalled that PSC’s 774^th session of May 2018 requested the Commission to undertake a study on the nexus between climate change and peace and security in the continent. This was further emphasised in the 1051^st session held in November 2021, during which the PSC urged the Commission to expedite the finalisation of a climate-related security risks assessment study to define the varying security impacts of climate change on the African continent while taking steps towards mobilising a common African position towards climate change and security. Moreover, the 35^th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly held in February 2022 requested the Commission to expedite the finalisation of a climate-related security risk assessment study, in consultation with Member States as well as to expeditiously develop a Common African Position on the nexus between Climate, Peace and Security in preparation for the COP27.

In response, the Commission, in collaboration with its partner Adelphi, conducted the Africa Continental Climate Security Risk Assessment (ACRA), which provides an in-depth analysis of key climate-security risks from a continental perspective and emerging good practices to address them based on regional assessments. This study has since informed the preparation of the chairperson’s report on climate change, peace and security nexus, which serves as a basis for developing a Common African Position on the topic.

In November 2023, at its 1184th session, the PSC received the ACRA study and the Chairperson’s report. The session welcomed the preliminary findings and requested the Commission to consolidate the ACRA study and the Chairperson’s report into a comprehensive document, stressing the importance of advancing a Common African Position on Climate Change, Peace and Security. It is worth noting that one of the key recommendations of the ACRA study and the Chairperson’s report is the adoption of a CAP on the Climate Change, Peace, and Security Nexus to amplify Africa’s collective voice and response.

The Commission, building on the key findings from two pivotal reports, has crafted a draft Common African Position on Climate Change, Peace, and Security (CAP-CCPS), marking a significant step toward a unified African response to climate-related peace and security risks. To enhance this draft, the Commission organised a three-day consultation from 27 to 29 August 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya. This event gathered diverse stakeholders, including Member States, Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs), the African Climate Commission, civil society organisations, African researchers, academics, experts, and other regional actors to engage in discussions. The consultation culminated in the completion of the draft CAP-CCPS.

With the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) approaching, scheduled in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November, tomorrow’s session serves as an occasion for the PSC to consider and enrich the draft CAP-CCPS. This would not only shape AU’s position on climate change, peace, and security but also provide a strategic guide for the AU, RECs/RMs and Member States to speak with one voice on the global stage. It also reinforces Africa’s leadership, underscored by a significant growth in dedicated institutions and cross-sectoral collaboration mechanisms established in recent years to address climate-related peace and security risks.

In tomorrow’s session, Bankole is expected to emphasise some of the key aspects of the CAP-CCPS, particularly highlighting the intersections of climate change, peace, and security in Africa. One of the insights of the CAP in this regard is how climate change exacerbates competition over natural resources such as land, water, and forests. When combined with existing socio-economic and political tensions, this competition can escalate into violent conflict, as seen in farmer-herder clashes. It also highlights how the vagaries of climate change in several regions of the continent impact agricultural productivity, destabilising essential resources like food, water, and energy. This disruption often leads to price hikes and shortages that can inflame existing grievances, potentially driving political instability.

Additionally, the CAP highlights the impact of climate-induced migration, especially the increased mobility from rural to urban areas. When urban centres are unable to provide adequate services for this influx, tensions between communities may arise, contributing to social friction. Climate-related hardships, particularly in regions where state institutions are weak, further create opportunities for non-state armed groups, such as militias, terrorists, and criminal organisations, to exploit governance deficits, recruit members, and, in some cases, weaponise natural resources, as observed in the Lake Chad region and Somalia.

The CAP addresses the geopolitical dimensions of climate-related peace and security risks, noting that external policies on food systems, trade, and energy shape the drivers of climate insecurity and affect Africa’s capacity to adapt to climate shocks. It further underscores that vulnerable groups—including women, youth—and African island states face disproportionate risks from climate change, amplifying the need for particular attention and strategies.

The CAP also outlines key responses to ameliorate the impacts of climate change on peace and security. It calls for conflict-sensitive and peace-positive climate strategies, advocates for progress on the loss and damage funding mechanism—particularly to address economic losses from greenhouse emissions for which Africa contributes little—and urges African leadership in global adaptation goals which are critical for peace and security. Despite contributing less than 4% of global emissions, Africa faces pressure to pursue low-carbon development. As a critical element of resilience in the face of climate change, safeguarding the development interests and needs of Africa focusing on just transition and balancing climate action and socio-economic advancement including through the utilisation of the natural resource endowment of the continent is also a major policy imperative for the continent, beyond loss and damage. The CAP emphasises integrating adaptive approaches across sectors, enhancing climate-conflict data collection, and promoting knowledge exchange. Additionally, it advocates for mainstreaming climate considerations into early warning systems, peace operations, and peacebuilding efforts, building partnerships, increasing climate awareness, and domesticating international frameworks to strengthen capacity. Recognising existing initiatives, the CAP highlights the need to integrate climate consideration into stabilisation strategies. Identifying the special needs and unique vulnerabilities of some African states is further emphasised, with emphasis on the imperative of tailored strategies for these countries.

The CAP outlines key recommendations for its implementation. Emphasising the integration of climate change, peace, and security into the PSC discussions and decisions, it recommends strengthening the AU climate security cluster, jointly run by the Departments of PAPS and Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment (DARBE), as a central coordinating body for climate-security mechanisms. In addition, it advises the AU Commission to collaborate closely with the Joint Liaison Group—a group that shares and collects information on the operations and work programmes of the three Rio conventions: the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)—to integrate climate, peace, and security considerations into these Conventions, ensuring context-specific mitigation and adaptation mechanisms.

For effective CAP implementation, the document highlights, understanding climate impacts on vulnerable groups is essential to develop an inclusive, strategic action plan with a focus on representation, coordination, and clear communication. It also calls for active coordination within the AU Commission and among AU departments and bodies—such as DPAPS, the AU Assembly and the Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC), the African Ministerial Conference on Environment (AMCEN), and African Group of Negotiators on climate change (AGN)—through a dedicated channel to track progress, changing vulnerabilities, and advancements in climate-security strategies.

The CAP further recommends policy steps across national, regional, and continental levels. Nationally, Member States should identify potential climate-conflict areas and enact preventive policies. Regionally, RECs should prioritise policies for the effective management of transboundary resources. At the continental level, the AU is urged to adopt the CAP promptly and incorporate its recommendations into policies and decision-making, solidifying its leadership in addressing the climate-security nexus.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to provide recommendations for consideration to the development of the CAP-CCPS. It may encourage Member States, RECs/RMs, and the AU to leverage this framework as a guiding document in upcoming climate negotiations and to strengthen Africa’s united voice on climate issues. The communiqué could include key highlights of the CAP, such as the climate-related security risks and responses to address these risks. The PSC may emphasise the  importance of strengthening the AU climate security cluster as a coordinating body for climate-security efforts, integrating climate considerations into all AU activities—especially in early warning and the prevention of climate-related conflicts—enhancing coordination among stakeholders and ensuring inclusivity and addressing the unique needs of vulnerable groups and African island states. The PSC may reiterate the importance of greater investment in risk prevention and resilience-building, including improved access to finance, investments in absorption capacities, and the rapid operationalisation of the loss and damage fund. It may also call for a significant increase in climate financing to address Africa’s special needs and circumstances.

* The discussion in this edition of ‘insights on the PSC’ is based on an earlier draft of the CAP-CCPS, as the latest version had not been circulated to the PSC Members at the time of publication.

Tomorrow (7 November), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1184^th session at the ambassadorial level. The session involves a briefing on the African Continental Climate Security Risk Assessment Report on Climate Change, Peace and Security Nexus, and the Report of the Chairperson of AUC on the Study on the Nexus between Climate Change, Peace and Security in Africa.

Tomorrow’s session is expected to start with open segment and proceed to closed segment. Following the opening statement by Abdi Mahamoud Eybe, the Permanent Representative of the Republic of Djibouti who is also the Chairperson of the PSC for the month of November, it is expected that the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, will deliver his remarks. It is also expected that statements will be delivered by Josefe Leonel Correla Sacko , the AU Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment (ARBE)and a representative of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change. An expert from the Office of the Chairperson will then present the Report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on the Study of the Nexus between Climate Change, Peace and Security in Africa.

The nexus between climate change, peace and security gained the attention of the PSC since its 585^th session on 30 March 2016. Introduced into the agenda of the PSC for the first time at that session under the theme, “Climate Change: State fragility, peace and security,” the issue of climate, peace and security has since received increasing attention in the work of the PSC. In the various communiqués and statements of the PSC adopted on this theme, it has identified climate change as ‘threat multiplier’ to the peace and security situation in the continent and/or potential exacerbator of ‘existing vulnerabilities, tensions and conflicts.’ In order to further deepen its consideration of the subject, the PSC requested the development of the African Continental Climate Security Risk Assessment Report on Climate Change, Peace and Security Nexus and the Report of the Chairperson of AUC on the Study on the Nexus between Climate Change, Peace and Security in Africa.

It was at its 774^th session held on 21 May 2018 that the PSC requested the study on the nexus between climate change, peace and security in Africa. Additionally,  during its 984^th session of 9 March, 2021, which was held at the Heads of State and Government level, the PSC expressed its anticipation of the study. Subsequently, the PSC requested the expedited completion of the study during its 1079^th session on 21 April, 2022. This urgency was reiterated during the PSC’s 1114^th session on 18 October, 2022. It is also recalled that the AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government requested the expedited finalization of the climate-related security risk assessment study during its 35^th ordinary session on 6 February, 2022. All of these are indicative that the study on the nexus between climate change and peace and security is long overdue.

While the initial request on the study was pending, it was during the 1051^st session of the PSC, held on 26 November 2021, that the African Continental Climate Security Risk Assessment Report featured in the deliberations of the PSC. Recognizing the urgent need to understand the diverse security implications of climate change across the continent, the PSC requested the AUC to expediate the finalization of the report, consulting with Member States in the process. The PSC, as per the session’s Communique, views the report as a stepping stone towards consolidating a common African position on climate change and security. The risk assessment report is based on the consultative workshop on Climate Security Risk Assessment methodology that was held in March 2023. The findings of this assessment report are expected to be included in the AUC Chairperson’s report on the Study of the Nexus between Climate Change, Peace and Security in Africa.

Informed by the risk assessment report, the Chairperson’s report is expected to highlight and expand upon the various concerns previously brought up in the PSC sessions regarding the nexus of climate change, peace and security. These concerns are primarily rooted in the reality that Africa is the region most susceptible to climate change. One issue of particular concern is the impact of climate change in the reduction of available water, pasture and cultivatable land. This heightened scarcity of these natural resources on which large number of people depend for their livelihoods and survival  has led to intensified competition for pastoral land between herders and  farmers as well artisanal fishers in the Sahel and Western Africa, an increase in cattle rustling in Easter Africa and conflict over scarce water resource in Central Africa regions.

Additionally, as climate change alters weather patterns, traditional rainfed agricultural practices are becoming less viable, especially in regions such as the Sahel, Western and Eastern Arica where populations heavily depend on agriculture-based livelihoods. In addition to changing weather patterns, these outcomes are compounded by complex socio-economic, political and governance issues that affect the production and price of food, aggravating the threat of climate change to human security. It has also been observed that in some countries the soaring food price is a catalyst for protests and riots, as it inflates existing grievances.

The Chairperson’s report may also highlight how scarcity of resources and climate change-induced catastrophes inadvertently benefit terrorist and armed groups. Such groups seize upon the desperation and instability caused by environmental crises and the inequitable nature or insufficiency of governments’ response to those disasters to strengthen their numbers. A prime example is Boko Haram in Western Africa. For people whose lives and livelihoods were threatened by the impacts of climate change, they position themselves as a beacon of providers of alternative source of support, livelihood security, promising safety, stability, and access to vital resources for vulnerable communities.

Migration and displacement due to climate change disasters is another concern expected to be reflected in the Chairperson’s report. As droughts, erratic rainfall, and rising sea levels continue to impact communities, more people are forced to leave their homes in search of safer environments. In East Africa, the United Nations High Commissioner (UNHCR) for Refugees released a report in November 2023 indicating that 2.3 million people had been internally displaced in Ethiopia and Somalia. The UNHCR has also reported  that as of 31 March 2023 there were almost 11.71 million internally displaced persons in East Africa and the Great Lakes Region. While the data is clear that conflicts account for the substantial majority of cases of forced displacement, the contribution of climate change to displacement has over the years been on the rise. With respect to migration, a recent survey of 6,000 people in West and Central Africa found that 49% of the respondents cited environmental issues as a factor in their decision to migrate. For receiving countries and communities, migration and displacement frequently results in competition for resources, strained infrastructure, and social unrest, at times escalating into violence within the communities hosting migrants.

On the contrary, the displacement of communities and the disruption of agriculture and food production in conflict-affected areas can lead to deforestation and land degradation as people rely on natural resources for survival. Hence, the Chairperson’s report is expected to highlight the flip side of the climate-security nexus. The instability caused by ongoing conflicts can hinder efforts to implement sustainable environmental policies and implement mitigation and adaptation measures to the challenges of climate change. This has been observed in incidents, such as the recent collapse of dam in Libya and the ongoing cases of human suffering in South Sudan. Additionally, the exploitation of natural resources, such as oil and minerals, to finance armed conflicts can further exacerbate environmental degradation. This is particularly evident in Central Africa, Sahel and North Africa, as seen in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the exploitative extraction of the vast resources of the country are fuelling conflicts.

The report may also focus on island nations, as it was requested by the PSC to ‘pay particular attention on the plight of island Member States’ in undertaking the study. These countries, which are often already at a disadvantage due to their small size and remoteness from the global interconnected economic system, face urgent and existential challenges posed by climate change. These challenges include rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and ocean acidification. The environmental changes not only lead to displacement and resource competition but also contribute to maritime insecurity and the depletion of marine resources, threatening human security in these countries.

Additionally, another element expected to be emphasised in the report is the disproportionate impact of climate change and conflict on vulnerable members of society including the poor, children, women and persons with disabilities particularly from marginalized sectors of the population.

The Chairperson’s report is also expected to highlight the climate financing gap for African States. Despite their acute climate-related risks, most African nations struggle to access the necessary funds to implement mitigation and adaptation measures. While African states access to climate funds remains poor, those fragile and conflict affected countries face further access challenges. According to a United Nations Development Program (UNDP) report, extremely fragile states received an average of $2.1 per person per year in adaptation financing between the years 2010-2017, compared to $161.7 per person for non-fragile states.

Tomorrow’s session may also emphasize the imperative for narrowing down the enormous financing gap for climate action in Africa, as rightly noted by the African Development Bank Group President Akinwumi Adesina, a lack of adequate financing for tackling climate change in Africa has become dire and is ‘chocking’ the continent. Apart from exploring new sources of funding, there are two aspects of the financing issue that deserve attention. The first is for the commitments relating to financing adaptation measures in developing countries to be honoured.  The second critical aspect of this requires the easing of the conditions and processes for accessing climate funds.

Moreover, the report is expected to present the relationship between conflict and climate change in Africa as a complex and interlinked issue, with far-reaching consequences for both human security and the environment. Putting this into perspective, the report may highlight on best practices in terms of innovative mechanisms to address climate-related security risks, early warning systems and cross-sectoral cooperation at national and regional levels. It is also expected that the report will provide recommendations pertaining to financing, governance, coordination and partnership.

Building on its decision from its 1114^th session and the initiative of the COP27 presidency on having the peace and security dimension into the agenda of the COP processes, the PSC may call for climate and security as one of the thematic areas in COP policy processes and request the AU and its member states to ensure that the security dimension is also fully integrated across the mitigation, adaptation, financing, loss and damage and transition streams of the COP.

The outcome of the session is expected to be a communique. The PSC is expected to commend the chairperson for the Study on the nexus between climate change and peace and security in Africa. The PSC may request that climate sensitive analysis is used for all AU peace and security initiatives across the African Peace and Security Architecture to ensure that such initiatives are tailored to address the implications of climate change. Council may also request the AU Commission to develop a Common African Position (CAP) on the nexus between climate change, peace and security based on the study of the Chairperson for the forthcoming COP 28 in United Arab Emirate (UAE), planned for November 2023. In light of this, The PSC may emphasize the importance of Member States presenting a unified position at global forums, guided by the Committee of African Heads of States and Governments on Climate Change (CAHOSCC) and the African Ministerial Conference on Environment (AMCEN). In this regard, the PSC may also express its support to the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) in advancing Africa’s priorities in climate change negotiations and promoting comprehensive and effective responses to climate change impacts at the national, regional, and continental levels. Additionally, the PSC may underscore the importance of accelerating the implementation of the AU Climate Change and Resilience Development Strategy and Action Plan. The PSC may further underscore the importance for the AU to support the efforts of Member States to enhance their national intervention for climate change resilience, mitigation and adaptation including through building early warning, preparedness and response capacities. The PSC may also draw attention to mobilizing targeted intervention for building resilience for the most vulnerable regions of the continent such as Sahel and Horn of Africa in key social and economic sectors such as agriculture and rural economy.

Tomorrow (31 August), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene its 1172^nd session to receive updates on the impact of climate change on peace and security.

Following opening remarks by Willy Nyamitwe, Permanent Representative of Burundi and the Chairperson of the PSC for August, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye is expected to make a statement. AU Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment, Josepha Sacko, may also deliver a statement. A representative of the UN may also make a statement.

Since the PSC’s 585^th session of March 2016, which decided to hold annual sessions on climate change, the PSC held nearly a dozen sessions to discuss issues of concern related to climate change. PSC last met on the theme during its 1114^th session last October at Ministerial level, which specifically addressed the issue of ‘building resilience and adaptation for food security in African Island States towards COP27’. In the light of the wide range of decisions that the PSC adopted on this theme, an important aspect of tomorrow’s session could be a review of the decisions and their implementation as well as the identification of action plan for the follow up of those decisions that are awaiting implementation.

Tomorrow’s session is taking place ahead of the inaugural Africa Climate Summit, which will be held from 4-6 September 2023 in Nairobi, Kenya, under the theme ‘Driving Green Growth and Climate Finance Solutions for African and the World’. Accordingly, of immediate interest for this session is to explore how best to advance the climate and security agenda as part of the Africa Climate Summit. Depending on how this session informs the African Climate Summit, it can also position the AU and its participation in the 28^th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), set to take place between November and December 2023.

As part of this session, it is worth recalling the growing impact of climate change particularly in the developing world including Africa, considering that 17 out of 20 countries most affected by climate change are in Africa despite the fact that Africa contributes the least to global greenhouse gas emissions. The adverse impacts of climate change in Africa are reflected in how climate induced extreme whether events affect not only the lives and livelihoods of increasingly large number of people on the continent and curtail progress in achieving development goals but also the governance, security and stability dynamics of affected populations and societies.

The PSC in tomorrow’s session is expected to build on its earlier decisions. In a major development that aims to bring the security dimension of climate change to the center of policy processes on climate, its 1114^th session called for the inclusion of discussions on climate and security in the agenda of the meetings of the AU Assembly Committee of African Heads of States and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC) – a committee that provides political leadership and strategic guidance on the continent’s engagement on climate change. During the COP27 hosted in Egypt in November 2022, for the first time the issue of the climate security nexus featured during COP.  Apart from various side events and high-level events in which the climate-security nexus took centre stage, the COP27 Presidency presented the Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace (CRSP).

Building on its decision from its 1114^th session and the initiative of the COP27 presidency, the PSC may not only call on the Africa Climate Summit to declare the designation of climate and security as one of the thematic areas in COP policy processes and ensure that the security implications of climate are duly accounted for so that the security dimension is also fully factored in policy initiatives across the mitigation, adaptation, financing, loss and damage and transition streams of the COP processes.

Understandably, how the security implications of climate change can be addressed as part of the COP processes is something that may be decided as part of the COP negotiation by the states parties. However, the PSC may request that the outcome document of the Africa Climate Summit includes a dedicated segment to the security implications of climate change. As proposed by Amani Africa in its statement on ‘the climate and security nexus in preparation of COP27’, this may involve the establishment of a thematic focus and a dedicated expert group on climate and security on the COP negotiations, which would enable a continuous and robust policy engagement and consultation on climate and security that will make COP processes agile and effectively responsive to various dimensions of the climate crisis.

The other decision that the PSC could build on is from its summit level 984^th session, which decided on the establishment of African Union Fund on climate change. Tomorrow’s session may discuss how to concretize the establishment of this fund particularly having regard to the existence of the Africa Climate Change Fund under the Africa Development Bank (AfDB). Considering that an important aspect of the focus of the African Climate Summit is climate finance solutions, tomorrow’s session may also emphasize the imperative for narrowing down the enormous financing gap for climate action in Africa. As rightly noted by the African Development Bank Group President Akinwumi Adesina, a lack of adequate financing for tackling climate change in Africa has become dire and is ‘chocking’ the continent. Apart from exploring new sources of funding, there are two aspects that deserve attention in this respect. The first is for the commitments relating to financing adaptation measures in developing countries to be honoured.  The second critical aspect of this requires the easing of the conditions and processes for accessing climate funds. Available statistics show that African countries particularly those most affected by climate, and fragility and conflict receive the least funding on account of the prohibitive nature of the conditions of access for these countries.

The other aspect of the session may focus on how to take the agenda of climate change and security forward both at a global and continental level while strengthening its own structures to effectively respond to the scourge. Apart from integrating climate in the various engagements that the PSC has with the UN Security Council and the European Political and Security Committee building on the last thematic focus of the consultative meeting of the PSC with the UN Peacebuilding Commission, attention may be drawn to mobilizing support for building resilience for the most vulnerable regions of the continent in key social and economic sectors such as agriculture and rural economy.

The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communiqué. PSC is expected to express concern over the rising climate-linked disasters and their implication over the peace, security, stability, and development of the continent. In that regard, it may reiterate its call for the Commission to continue and enhance the identification and mobilization of support to Member States in building national resilience and address the adverse impacts of climate change. PSC may welcome the convening of the inaugural Africa Climate Summit in September in line with decision of the 36^th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly and may urge participants to pay attention to the security implications of climate change in Africa. In relation to the various initiatives and decisions adopted in previous sessions and cognizant of the need for a systematic follow-up to their implementation, PSC may request the Commission to submit a comprehensive report in the next PSC session on the theme, highlighting the status of the implementation of each decision, and action plan on follow up of those decisions pending implementation. As COP28 negotiations will kick off in few months, PSC may urge relevant AU stakeholders, notably the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) to make thorough preparation to ensure that the continent’s interests and priorities are taken onboard in the negotiation process and in this respect to add to the negotiation process the proposed establishment of a dedicated thematic focus on the peace and security implications of climate to help inform how best this agenda can be taken forward in COP processes.