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	<title>Unconstitutional change of Governments Archives - Amani Africa</title>
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		<title>Informal Consultation with Member States in Political Transition</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultation-with-member-states-in-political-transition/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Feb 2026 07:52:13 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Popular Uprisings and Unconstitutional Changes of Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unconstitutional change of Governments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=22824</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>26 February 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultation-with-member-states-in-political-transition/">Informal Consultation with Member States in Political Transition</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wpb-content-wrapper"><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-0"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter double-top-padding single-bottom-padding one-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="empty-space empty-half" ><span class="empty-space-inner"></span></div>
<div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h1 class="font-555555 fontsize-189933 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-color-165108-color" ><span><strong>Informal Consultation with Member States in Political Transition</strong></span></h1></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 26 February 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Tomorrow (27 February), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will hold an informal consultation with countries in political transition—namely Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mali, Niger and Sudan.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This meeting will be the latest in the PSC’s series of informal consultations, introduced into its working methods in April 2023 following the 14<sup>th</sup> Retreat on Working Methods in November 2022. Grounded in Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol, the mechanism enables direct engagement with representatives of Member States suspended from AU activities due to unconstitutional changes of government (UCG). Tomorrow’s session is expected to take stock of progress and outstanding challenges since the late 2025 consultation, in light of evolving regional dynamics.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The PSC scheduled an informal consultation on Sudan early in the month, with Sudan ahead of the PSC ministerial session held on 12 February 2026 on the situation in Sudan. While there is no public record of whether the PSC held such an informal consultation, the Foreign Minister of Sudan was present and made a statement at the opening segment of the 1330<sup>th</sup> meeting of the PSC dedicated to the situations in Sudan and Somalia.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>Sudan's Foreign Minister at the 1330th session of the PSC</figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-1" data-row="script-row-unique-1" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-1"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-2"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter single-top-padding single-bottom-padding one-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Two notable developments are notable in relation to countries in transition. First, military coups in Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar have kept the number of states under suspension unchanged despite the lifting of the suspension of Gabon. Second was the lifting of Guinea’s suspension from the AU, notwithstanding concerns regarding compliance with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), which renders perpetrators of UCG ineligible to contest elections organised to restore constitutional order. At its <a href="https://papsrepository.africanunion.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/a6789671-ed25-4445-8af3-388e01dbc48a/content">1325<sup>th</sup> meeting</a> on 22 January 2026, the PSC determined that the political transition in Guinea had culminated in ‘the successful organisation of the presidential election on 28 December 2025’ and consequently lifted the suspension. Yet, this step did not change the number of states under suspension in 2026 from the number in 2024.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">What was problematic with respect to the decision to lift suspension of Gabon and Guinea, thereby endorsing the legitimisation of coup makers through election, was not simply PSC’s lack of consideration of Article 25(4) of ACDEG. It was rather the PSC’s repeated inability to explicitly state that the provision of the AU norm on non-eligibility of those who participated in unconstitutional changes of government for elections organised for restoring constitutional order remains part of the AU anti-coup norm, and it stands by that provision. This issue took the spotlight during the 39<sup>th</sup> Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly when the Chairperson of the AU, Angola’s President Jõao Manuel Lourenço, during the opening session of the Assembly in his address, pointed out.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-3" data-row="script-row-unique-3" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-3"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-4"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter double-top-padding no-bottom-padding double-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="uncode-single-media  text-left"><div class="single-wrapper" style="max-width: 100%;"><div class="tmb tmb-light  tmb-media-first tmb-media-last tmb-content-overlay tmb-no-bg"><div class="t-inside"><div class="t-entry-visual"><div class="t-entry-visual-tc"><div class="uncode-single-media-wrapper"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-22826" src="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-AU-Member-States-Under-Suspension-and-Political-Transition.jpeg" width="1200" height="1010" alt="" srcset="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-AU-Member-States-Under-Suspension-and-Political-Transition.jpeg 1200w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-AU-Member-States-Under-Suspension-and-Political-Transition-300x253.jpeg 300w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-AU-Member-States-Under-Suspension-and-Political-Transition-1024x862.jpeg 1024w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-AU-Member-States-Under-Suspension-and-Political-Transition-768x646.jpeg 768w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-AU-Member-States-Under-Suspension-and-Political-Transition-350x295.jpeg 350w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" /></div>
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<p style="text-align: justify;">While informal consultations have now become regularized as a format of PSC meeting, it remains far from clear that their potential and value is adequately explored. One issue with the informal consultations is how to use them beyond just being a platform for the exchange of information. The critical test for the value of the informal exchange is whether it facilitates improved understanding and relationship between the AU and the countries in transition, and how the insights gleaned from the consultations help to improve and advance a more effective AU policy engagement in the countries in transition.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">What additionally limits the value of the informal consultation in its current design is the fact that it does not afford tailored discussion on the specificities of each country&#8217;s situation. The transitional dynamics of the different countries are unique to each and deserve dedicated attention for advancing a more effective policy reflective of and responsive to the needs of each. Best practice from the UN Security Council suggests that, unless it is for thematic issues, country situations are dealt with individually, even in informal meetings. In this respect, the inclusion in the program of work for February 2026 of an informal consultation dedicated to Sudan sets a good example in taking the use of informal consultations to the next level.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Another challenge, not unrelated to the above, witnessed during 2025 was the lack of participation on the part of representatives of some of the member states to engage in some of the informal consultations. For example, it was the lack of confirmation of participation by the representatives of some of the member states that led to the cancellation of the planned informal consultation in November 2025. Tomorrow’s informal consultation provides an opportunity for taking stock of what worked and how to improve this engagement for enhancing effective policy engagement of the AU in support of both implementation of reform processes for transition and efforts towards achieving peace in Sudan and containing the terrorist menace in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">During tomorrow’s informal consultation, representatives of the affected countries are expected to provide an update on the transitional process of each of their respective countries.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As noted in the analysis in the <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition/">Insight</a> for the December 2025 informal consultations, a central challenge in relation to the AES is how the AU and ECOWAS can integrate the restoration of constitutional order into a broader stabilisation and state authority expansion strategy, supported by a jointly developed and deployed security mechanism. These concerns resonate with warnings issued at the UN Security Council <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2025/sc16226.doc.htm">meeting</a> last November, where ECOWAS Commission President Omar Alieu Touray described terrorism as an ‘existential threat’ to West Africa, while President Julius Maada Bio, Sierra Leone’s President, Chair of ECOWAS and UNSC President for November, <a href="https://x.com/Presidency_SL/status/1990862349453172789">outlined</a> the need for engaging directly with Sahel states, rebuilding trust, and supporting nationally owned transitional processes. Stating that the time is ‘for bold and coordinated action,’ he proposed an ECOWAS-AU-UN compact for peace and resilience in the Sahel as an instrument for addressing the grave situation facing the Sahel and viewing the AES not as an adversary but as a partner that can complement ECOWAS and AU.  The informal consultation may serve as an opportunity to discuss with AES states for taking these outlines forward.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In relation to Madagascar, tomorrow’s informal consultation will present an opportunity to hear from the representative of Madagascar on the progress made in the development of a transitional roadmap and the inclusivity of the process for elaborating the roadmap. Madagascar had earlier <a href="https://english.news.cn/africa/20251211/de9fdaf0c1914368b4492b5067e9e506/c.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com">launched</a> a National Consultation on 10 December 2025 to advance constitutional reform toward a Fifth Republic through a six-month, inclusive, nationwide process. It may additionally consider how the AU, working in close coordination with SADC, in accordance with the communiqué of its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1313.comm_en.pdf">1313<sup>th</sup> meeting</a> on 20 November, can enhance its engagement for ensuring that the reforms necessary for preventing the recurrence of coups in Madagascar are crafted and implemented as part of the transitional process. The consultation may thus additionally consider how the AU, working in close coordination with SADC, in accordance with the communiqué of its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1313.comm_en.pdf">1313<sup>th</sup> meeting</a> on 20 November, can enhance its engagement for ensuring that the reforms necessary for preventing the recurrence of coups in Madagascar are crafted and implemented as part of the transitional process.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">With respect to Guinea-Bissau, the consultation is expected to assess the extent to which steps taken by the military junta towards creating inclusive political conditions towards the development of a transitional roadmap for the restoration of constitutional order. It is expected that the representative of Guinea-Bissau will provide an update on the steps taken. These may include the formation of a transition government, the allocation of three ministerial posts each to the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde and the political group led by Fernando Dias Da Costa (the leading candidate in the November election), the appointment of 10 representatives from the two blocs to the National Transition Council, the release of political prisoner and the withdrawal of the request for the departure of the ECOWAS Stabilization Support Mission. However, it is worth noting that opposition leaders <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2026/02/03/guinea-bissau-opposition-leaders-refuse-offer-to-join-government/">decline</a> participation. Subsequently, the transitional authorities <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/22/guinea-bissau-sets-election-date-following-last-years-coup">announced</a> that legislative and presidential elections would be held on 6 December 2026, with Horta Inta-a asserting that ‘all the conditions for organising free, fair and transparent elections have been met.’ Given that the transitional charter issued in early December barred him from contesting the polls, the PSC members may use the opportunity of the informal consultation to applaud this step as a measure that ensures compliance with Article 24(5) of the ACDEG and urge its compliance.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">On Sudan, there has been no major development since the PSC meeting of 12 February as far as the transitional process is concerned. Tomorrow’s informal consultation, however, will afford the representative of Sudan to reflect on the outcome of the PSC ministerial session on Sudan held early in the month.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Similar to prior consultations, tomorrow’s session is not anticipated to produce an outcome document.</p>
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</div><p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultation-with-member-states-in-political-transition/">Informal Consultation with Member States in Political Transition</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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		<title>Informal consultation with countries in transition</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2025 10:12:18 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Popular Uprisings and Unconstitutional Changes of Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unconstitutional change of Governments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2025]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=22357</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>16 December 2025</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition/">Informal consultation with countries in transition</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wpb-content-wrapper"><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-6"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter double-top-padding single-bottom-padding one-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="empty-space empty-half" ><span class="empty-space-inner"></span></div>
<div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h1 class="font-555555 fontsize-189933 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-color-165108-color" ><span>Informal consultation with countries in transition</span></h1></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 16 December 2025</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Tomorrow (17 December), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will hold an informal consultation with countries in transition—namely Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, and Sudan.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This will be the fourth such informal consultation since the PSC introduced this format into its working methods in April 2023, following its 14<sup>th</sup> Retreat on Working Methods in November 2022. The informal consultation was established to enable direct engagement with representatives of countries suspended from AU activities due to unconstitutional changes of government. It drew on Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol. Tomorrow’s consultation is expected to examine progress made and challenges encountered in ongoing transitions since the last consultation in March 2025.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Two notable developments have occurred since the previous consultation. First, military coups in Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar have expanded the list of countries undergoing political transitions to seven. Second, the lifting of Gabon’s suspension from the AU despite the fact that the elections did not comply with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG) on the ineligibility of perpetrators of unconstitutional changes of government in elections organised to restore constitutional order. As noted in our <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/April-Monthly-Digest-2025.pdf">April 2025 Monthly Digest</a>, Nguema’s participation and victory, in clear violation of ACDEG, and the subsequent lifting of Gabon’s suspension without the PSC affirming its full commitment to Article 25(4), is not without consequences for AU’s purported policy of zero tolerance to coups. It signalled to coup makers and members of the military in other African countries that the PSC may be ‘willing not to insist on full compliance with AU norms if they opt for speeding up the ‘restoration’ of constitutional order as long as they hold elections.’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Not surprisingly, Guinea’s coup leader and interim president, Mamady Doumbouya, is poised to follow Gabon’s path as the country prepares for elections. The PSC is likely to discuss technical and financial support for credible elections and, echoing its 1284<sup>th</sup> session, emphasise the importance of inclusivity in Guinea’s political process. In this respect, Guinea’s representative is expected to highlight progress toward the ‘restoration’ of constitutional order, particularly the September 2025 constitutional referendum and the general elections scheduled for 28 December 2025 and the electoral support the country needs. These elections are meant to conclude Guinea’s transition period. However, Doumbouya formally entered the presidential race in early November—reneging on his earlier pledge not to run. The PSC, during its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1284-PSC-Field-Mission-Report-Guinea-en.pdf">field mission</a> to Conakry in May and its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1284.comm_en.pdf">1284<sup>th</sup> session</a>, urged the transition authorities to honour their commitment to complete the transition by December 2025, but stopped short of reminding them of the prohibition under Article 25(4) of ACDEG against coup leaders contesting elections. With Doumbouya now a candidate—and his victory highly probable—the PSC may follow the exact approach it applied to Gabon, unless the regional body, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), raises concern. Under the circumstances, whether or not the coup leaders in other countries will run for elections is now a matter of their choice and is not expected to face any opposition from the AU for non-compliance with Article 24(5) of ACDEG.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Similarly, Sudan’s representative may raise the issue of lifting the country’s suspension, citing the May 2025 appointment of Kamil al-Tayeb Idris as civilian Prime Minister by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chair of the Transitional Sovereign Council and head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Following the appointment, it is to be recalled that the Chairperson of the AU Commission welcomed it as ‘a step towards inclusive governance.’ However, the appointment of the Prime Minister was not a result of national dialogue, nor did it involve the participation of Sudanese political and social forces. Indeed, discussions around the lifting of Sudan’s suspension remain premature under the prevailing circumstances, where the deteriorating security situation does not allow for an inclusive political process, there is no national dialogue and a clear pathway for the eventual convening of elections. These steps have ‘<em>supposedly’ become</em> the basic requirements the AU expects before lifting sanctions. Recent precedents of the Council suggest that sanctions can be lifted as long as a country organises a national dialogue and elections, even when the very actors who carried out a coup freely participate in those elections. It has become an acceptable shortcut around ACDEG. Additionally, the representative of Sudan may encourage the PSC to have a field mission to Port Sudan. In the light of recent developments including the fall of El Fasher, the last remaining major city in Darfur and the Heglig oilfield, into the hands of the para militaryRapid Support Forces, marking the <em>de facto</em> partition of Sudan and killing of civilians and the attack and the recent killing of UN Peacekeepers, the discussion may centre on deploying a mechanism for humanitarian and civilian protection in El Fasher and identifying credible pathways for accelerating efforts for peace as well as implementing the previous decisions of the PSC on the situation in Sudan.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Similarly, the situation in Madagascar is expected to feature in the consultation, given the military takeover that unfolded. In October 2025, a faction of the Madagascar Armed Forces led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina seized power amid mass protests in the capital Antananarivo, ousting President Andry Rajoelina and prompting the AU to suspend Madagascar’s membership for violating the Union’s zero-tolerance policy on unconstitutional changes of government. The PSC, at its 1305<sup>th</sup> and subsequent emergency sessions, condemned the coup, reaffirmed its rejection of any unconstitutional seizure of power, and called on all Malagasy actors, civilian and military, to exercise restraint, engage in inclusive dialogue, and work towards a peaceful and lawful resolution within constitutional frameworks. In its recent session held on 20 November, the Council emphasised the need for coordinated AU-SADC efforts, including high-level missions and strengthening the AU Liaison Office on the ground to support mediation, reconciliation, and stabilisation. The PSC also placed strong emphasis on the need for enhanced coordination and division of labour among the AU, SADC, and the Indian Ocean Commission, while calling on the AU Commission and partners to provide financial and technical support for the electoral management body and the drafting of a new constitution, and to extend support through the Africa Facility to Support Inclusive Transitions (AFSIT), conditional on the implementation of the Transition Road Map. These issues are likely to feature in tomorrow’s consultation with countries in transition, particularly the extent to which regional and continental coordination mechanisms are effectively aligned in supporting the country’s transition to a democratic order. Meanwhile, in the remaining countries—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—relations with the regional bloc ECOWAS remain strained, as the three states continue consolidating their alliance through the confederation established in 2024. It is becoming increasingly clear that the security situation gets in the way of and provides a pretext for the lack of focused progress in the transition process. In Mali, the National Transitional Council adopted a bill on 3 July 2025 revising the Transitional Charter, granting General Assimi Goïta a renewable five-year term as President of the Transition ‘until peace is restored.’ Similarly, in Burkina Faso, the transition period was extended for another five years, starting in July 2024—the year initially planned for its conclusion. The new charter, signed by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, also allows him to contest in the elections. Niger has taken a similar path. A national conference on rebuilding the country in February 2025 decided that the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP), which seized power in July 2023, would remain in power for five years without any clear timeline for elections.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Council is therefore expected to reiterate the concerns expressed during its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1304.comm_en.pdf">1304<sup>th</sup></a> ministerial session on 30 September 2025, which noted with ‘deep concern’ the ‘slow pace of political transition processes’ and urged the transitional authorities to accelerate inclusive transitions, engage all stakeholders, and facilitate genuine political dialogue. It may also again call on these authorities to adhere to their respective transitional roadmaps and operationalise joint transition monitoring committees.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">While the issue of progress in the transition process may be the focus of the session, this cannot be separated from and is deeply tied to the possibility of arresting the deepening and widening threat facing these countries. A major issue for tomorrow’s session is <strong>the question of how AU and ECOWAS overhaul their approach by integrating the quest for restoration of constitutional order into a wider stabilisation and state authority expansion strategy backed by a security mechanism they develop and deploy together with the Sahel countries to address the existential threat facing these countries.</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As such, tomorrow’s consultation needs to both situate the discussion on transition in these countries within the insecurity facing them and consider the kind of role the AU and ECOWAS bring to the counterterrorism efforts of these countries. Similar to Sudan and unlike Gabon and Guinea, the push for progress in the transitional process cannot be abstracted out of the pressing issue facing these countries, which is the terrorism menace that has grown to become an existential threat to these countries. A clear illustration of this involves the recent developments in Mali, with the capital Bamako under imminent threat and cut off from supply routes. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has expanded operations from the north and centre into the western and southern regions of Mali. Its fuel blockade since September has caused severe shortages, power cuts, and economic paralysis in Bamako and other cities, triggering public unrest and <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/october-trends-and-november-alerts-2025">fears</a> of broader instability. Weekly fuel deliveries have <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/october-trends-and-november-alerts-2025">reportedly</a> fallen from 1,000 to 200 tankers. Facing mounting pressure, General Goïta has replaced several senior military officials, including the deputy chief of staff of the armed forces, the head of military security and the ground forces’ chief of staff, highlighting internal strains within the regime.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The PSC is also expected to discuss the AU’s recent intensified diplomatic engagement with these Sahelian countries and explore ways to enhance coordination. In May, the AU Commission Chairperson met representatives of the three countries in Addis Ababa to explore renewed engagement. This was followed by a visit from Angola’s Minister of External Relations—delivering a message from President João Lourenço, the current AU Chairperson—reaffirming the AU’s commitment to Sahel stability and counterterrorism efforts. In July, the AU Chairperson appointed President Évariste Ndayishimiye of Burundi as Special Envoy for the Sahel. Angola also proposed hosting a summit on the Sahel in Luanda, welcomed by the PSC during its 1304<sup>th</sup> session. Additionally, former Gambian Foreign Minister Mamadou Tangara was appointed as Special Representative for Mali and the Sahel, and Head of the AU Mission in Mali and the Sahel (MISAHEL). The PSC also decided to establish a Task Force to support counterterrorism in the region and called for a field visit by Special Envoy Ndayishimiye to engage directly with the transitional authorities. In this context, the informal consultation could provide an opportunity to discuss how to advance these initiatives and follow up on the decision of PSC and ECOWAS during their annual consultative meeting last May ‘to develop a security cooperation framework involving the AU and ECOWAS engagement with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, in order to more effectively address insecurity in the West Africa Region.’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In addition to the three Sahelian countries, a further concern is the widening pattern of governance instability across West Africa. This includes the recent coup d’état in Guinea-Bissau and the attempted coup in Benin, developments that underscored the growing threat of unconstitutional changes of government and prompted ECOWAS to declare a state of emergency. As such, the consultation is expected to consider the situation in Guinea-Bissau following the coup d’état of 26 November, which unfolded just before the release of the results of the presidential runoff between incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and his main challenger, Fernando Dias, on 26 November. In a statement issued during the crisis, prior to Senegal’s confirmation that it had granted Embaló asylum, the military announced that the President and several senior officials were “under the control” of the High Military Command. In response to the coup, the AU convened a PSC session on 28 November, during which it condemned and rejected the unconstitutional change of government and decided to <strong>immediately suspend Guinea-Bissau from participation in all AU activities, organs, and institutions until constitutional order is restored</strong>. The Council further requested the AU Post-Conflict, Reconstruction and Development (PCRD) Centre in Cairo, in collaboration with UN peacebuilding institutions, to engage relevant national stakeholders in Guinea-Bissau to support development activities aimed at preventing further relapses into political crisis. In addition, the PSC mandated the Chairperson of the Commission to establish an <strong>inclusive AU monitoring mechanism</strong>, in collaboration with ECOWAS and other relevant stakeholders, to closely follow developments on the ground, particularly the implementation of ECOWAS and PSC decisions. At the sub-regional level, the <strong>68<sup>th</sup> Ordinary Session of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government</strong>, held in Abuja on 14 December, rejected the transition programme announced by Guinea-Bissau’s military authorities and called for a swift return to constitutional order. The Authority warned of <strong>targeted sanctions</strong> against individuals obstructing the process and mandated the ECOWAS Chair to lead a high-level delegation to Guinea-Bissau to engage the junta.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">On the other hand, the representative of Sudan is expected to update the PSC on the recent developments in the conflict in Sudan, including the fall of El-Fasher—the last major SAF stronghold— to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 26 October, and on reports of attacks on civilians and mass killings committed during and after the takeover. During the <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1308.comm_en.pdf">emergency meeting</a> held in Sudan on 28 October, the PSC ‘strongly’ condemned the ‘criminal activities against Sudanese civilians and the grave violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, perpetrated by the paramilitary RSF’. The emergency session further requested the AU Commission to regularly monitor and report heinous crimes committed in Sudan, develop proposals on how to address them to prevent their further escalation, develop a plan for the protection of civilians, and make recommendations to the PSC within three weeks. It also requested the Special Envoy on the Prevention of Genocide and Other Mass Atrocities to urgently undertake a fact-finding mission to Sudan and report back to the Council with recommendations within three weeks. While meeting these deadlines may prove challenging, tomorrow’s consultation could consider ways Sudan might facilitate the implementation of these tasks.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As with previous consultations, tomorrow’s engagement is not expected to result in an outcome document.</p>
<p>
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		<title>Informal Consultation with Member States in Political Transition (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Sudan)</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultation-with-member-states-in-political-transition-burkina-faso-guinea-mali-niger-sudan/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2025 09:33:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Popular Uprisings and Unconstitutional Changes of Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unconstitutional change of Governments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2025]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=22071</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>12 November 2025</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultation-with-member-states-in-political-transition-burkina-faso-guinea-mali-niger-sudan/">Informal Consultation with Member States in Political Transition (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Sudan)</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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<div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h1 class="font-555555 fontsize-189933 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-color-165108-color" ><span><strong>Informal Consultation with Member States in Political Transition (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Sudan)</strong></span></h1></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 12 November 2025</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Tomorrow (13 November), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will hold an informal consultation with countries in political transition—namely Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Sudan.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This will be the fourth such informal consultation since the PSC introduced this format into its working methods in April 2023, following its 14<sup>th</sup> Retreat on Working Methods in November 2022. The informal consultation was established to enable direct engagement with representatives of countries suspended from AU activities due to unconstitutional changes of government. It drew on Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol. Tomorrow’s consultation is expected to examine progress made and challenges encountered in ongoing transitions since the last consultation in March 2025.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">One notable development since the previous consultation was the lifting of Gabon’s suspension from the AU despite the fact that the elections did not comply with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG) on the ineligibility of perpetrators of unconstitutional changes of government in elections organised to restore constitutional order. As noted in our <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/April-Monthly-Digest-2025.pdf">April 2025 Monthly Digest</a>, Nguema’s participation and victory, in clear violation of ACDEG, and the subsequent lifting of Gabon’s suspension without the PSC affirming its full commitment to Article 25(4), is not without consequences for AU’s purported policy of zero tolerance to coups. It signalled to coup makers and members of the military in other African countries that the PSC may be ‘willing not to insist on full compliance with AU norms if they opt for speeding up the ‘restoration’ of constitutional order as long as they hold elections.’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Not surprisingly, Guinea’s coup leader and interim president, Mamady Doumbouya, is poised to follow Gabon’s path as the country prepares for elections. The PSC is likely to discuss technical and financial support for credible elections and, echoing its 1284<sup>th</sup> session, emphasise the importance of inclusivity in Guinea’s political process. In this respect, Guinea’s representative is expected to highlight progress toward the ‘restoration’ of constitutional order, particularly the September 2025 constitutional referendum and the general elections scheduled for 28 December 2025 and the electoral support the country needs. These elections are meant to conclude Guinea’s transition period. However, Doumbouya formally entered the presidential race in early November—reneging on his earlier pledge not to run. The PSC, during its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1284-PSC-Field-Mission-Report-Guinea-en.pdf">field mission</a> to Conakry in May and its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1284.comm_en.pdf">1284<sup>th</sup> session</a>, urged the transition authorities to honour their commitment to complete the transition by December 2025, but stopped short of reminding them of the prohibition under Article 25(4) of ACDEG against coup leaders contesting elections. With Doumbouya now a candidate—and his victory highly probable—the PSC may follow the exact approach it applied to Gabon, unless the regional body, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), raises concern. Under the circumstances, whether or not the coup leaders in other countries will run for elections is now a matter of their choice and is not expected to face any opposition from the AU for non-compliance with Article 24(5) of ACDEG.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Similarly, Sudan’s representative may raise the issue of lifting the country’s suspension, citing the May 2025 appointment of Kamil al-Tayeb Idris as civilian Prime Minister by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chair of the Transitional Sovereign Council and head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Following the appointment, it is to be recalled that the Chairperson of the AU Commission welcomed it as ‘a step towards inclusive governance.’ However, the appointment of the Prime Minister was not a result of national dialogue, nor did it involve the participation of Sudanese political and social forces. Indeed, discussions around the lifting of Sudan’s suspension remain premature under the prevailing circumstances, where the deteriorating security situation does not allow for an inclusive political process, there is no national dialogue and a clear pathway for the eventual convening of elections. In the light of recent developments including the fall of El Fasher, the last remaining major city in Darfur, into the hands of the para military Rapid Support Forces, marking the <em>de facto</em> partition of Sudan, the discussion may centre on deploying a mechanism for humanitarian and civilian protection in El Fasher and identifying credible pathways for accelerating efforts for peace as well as implementing the previous decisions of the PSC on the situation in Sudan.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Meanwhile, in the remaining countries—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—relations with the regional bloc ECOWAS remain strained, as the three states continue consolidating their alliance through the confederation established in 2024. It is becoming increasingly clear that the security situation gets in the way of and provides a pretext for the lack of focused progress in the transition process. In Mali, the National Transitional Council adopted a bill on 3 July 2025 revising the Transitional Charter, granting General Assimi Goïta a renewable five-year term as President of the Transition ‘until peace is restored.’ Similarly, in Burkina Faso, the transition period was extended for another five years, starting in July 2024—the year initially planned for its conclusion. The new charter, signed by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, also allows him to contest in the elections. Niger has taken a similar path. A national conference on rebuilding the country in February 2025 decided that the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP), which seized power in July 2023, would remain in power for five years without any clear timeline for elections.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Council is therefore expected to reiterate the concerns expressed during its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1304.comm_en.pdf">1304<sup>th</sup></a> ministerial session on 30 September 2025, which noted with ‘deep concern’ the ‘slow pace of political transition processes’ and urged the transitional authorities to accelerate inclusive transitions, engage all stakeholders, and facilitate genuine political dialogue. It may also again call on these authorities to adhere to their respective transitional roadmaps and operationalise joint transition monitoring committees.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">While the issue of progress in the transition process may be the focus of the session, this cannot be separated from and is deeply tied to the possibility of arresting the deepening and widening threat facing these countries. A major issue for tomorrow’s session is <strong>the question of how AU and ECOWAS overhaul their approach by integrating the quest for restoration of constitutional order into a wider stabilisation and state authority expansion strategy backed by a security mechanism they develop and deploy together with the Sahel countries to address the existential threat facing these countries. </strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As such, tomorrow’s consultation needs to both situate the discussion on transition in these countries within the insecurity facing them and consider the kind of role the AU and ECOWAS bring to the counterterrorism efforts of these countries. Similar to Sudan and unlike Gabon and Guinea, the push for progress in the transitional process cannot be abstracted out of the pressing issue facing these countries, which is the terrorism menace that has grown to become an existential threat to these countries. A clear illustration of this involves the recent developments in Mali, with the capital Bamako under imminent threat and cut off from supply routes. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has expanded operations from the north and centre into the western and southern regions of Mali. Its fuel blockade since September has caused severe shortages, power cuts, and economic paralysis in Bamako and other cities, triggering public unrest and <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/october-trends-and-november-alerts-2025">fears</a> of broader instability. Weekly fuel deliveries have <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/october-trends-and-november-alerts-2025">reportedly</a> fallen from 1,000 to 200 tankers. Facing mounting pressure, General Goïta has replaced several senior military officials, including the deputy chief of staff of the armed forces, the head of military security and the ground forces’ chief of staff, highlighting internal strains within the regime.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The PSC is also expected to discuss the AU’s recent intensified diplomatic engagement with these Sahelian countries and explore ways to enhance coordination. In May, the AU Commission Chairperson met representatives of the three countries in Addis Ababa to explore renewed engagement. This was followed by a visit from Angola’s Minister of External Relations—delivering a message from President João Lourenço, the current AU Chairperson—reaffirming the AU’s commitment to Sahel stability and counterterrorism efforts. In July, the AU Chairperson appointed President Évariste Ndayishimiye of Burundi as Special Envoy for the Sahel. Angola also proposed hosting a summit on the Sahel in Luanda, welcomed by the PSC during its 1304<sup>th</sup> session. Additionally, former Gambian Foreign Minister Mamadou Tangara was appointed as Special Representative for Mali and the Sahel, and Head of the AU Mission in Mali and the Sahel (MISAHEL). The PSC also decided to establish a Task Force to support counterterrorism in the region and called for a field visit by Special Envoy Ndayishimiye to engage directly with the transitional authorities. In this context, the informal consultation could provide an opportunity to discuss how to advance these initiatives and follow up on the decision of PSC and ECOWAS during their annual consultative meeting last May ‘to develop a security cooperation framework involving the AU and ECOWAS engagement with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, in order to more effectively address insecurity in the West Africa Region.’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">On the other hand, the representative of Sudan is expected to update the PSC on the recent developments in the conflict in Sudan, including the fall of El-Fasher—the last major SAF stronghold— to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 26 October, and on reports of attacks on civilians and mass killings committed during and after the takeover. During the <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1308.comm_en.pdf">emergency meeting</a> held in Sudan on 28 October, the PSC ‘strongly’ condemned the ‘criminal activities against Sudanese civilians and the grave violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, perpetrated by the paramilitary RSF’. The emergency session further requested the AU Commission to regularly monitor and report heinous crimes committed in Sudan, develop proposals on how to address them to prevent their further escalation, develop a plan for the protection of civilians, and make recommendations to the PSC within three weeks. It also requested the Special Envoy on the Prevention of Genocide and Other Mass Atrocities to urgently undertake a fact-finding mission to Sudan and report back to the Council with recommendations within three weeks. While meeting these deadlines may prove challenging, tomorrow’s consultation could consider ways Sudan might facilitate the implementation of these tasks.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As with previous consultations, tomorrow’s engagement is not expected to result in an outcome document.</p>
<p>
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		<title>Informal consultation with countries in political transition</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Mar 2025 06:33:29 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Popular Uprisings and Unconstitutional Changes of Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2025]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unconstitutional change of Governments]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=20602</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>17 March 2025</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-political-transition-5/">Informal consultation with countries in political transition</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
]]></description>
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<div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h1 class="font-555555 fontsize-189933 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-color-165108-color" ><span><strong>Informal consultation with countries in political transition </strong></span></h1></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 17 March 2025</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Tomorrow (18 March), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will hold an informal consultations with Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan at the ambassadorial level.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Informal consultation with countries undergoing political transitions was incorporated into the PSC’s repertoire of working methods following its decision during the 14th Retreat on Working Methods, held in November 2022. The conclusions of the retreat introduced these consultations as a mechanism to facilitate direct engagement with representatives of countries suspended from participation in the AU due to unconstitutional changes of government, in line with Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol. Since then, two such consultations have been held in April and December 2023.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The last time the PSC held informal consultations with countries in political transition was in December 2023. Since then, the PSC convened its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1212.comm_en-political-transition-in-Burkina-Faso-Gabon-Guinea-Mali-and-Niger.pdf">1212th</a> session on 20 May 2024 as a formal meeting to receive updated briefings on the political transitions in Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, and Niger. The PSC also conducted a field mission to Gabon in September 2024. Tomorrow’s session presents an opportunity for the PSC and countries in political transition to exchange views on the latest developments and provides a platform for candid discussions on concerning trends affecting the restoration of constitutional order in these countries.</p>
<p>
</div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-8" data-row="script-row-unique-8" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-8"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-9"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter no-top-padding no-bottom-padding single-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="uncode-single-media  text-left"><div class="single-wrapper" style="max-width: 100%;"><div class="tmb tmb-light  tmb-media-first tmb-media-last tmb-content-overlay tmb-no-bg"><div class="t-inside"><div class="t-entry-visual"><div class="t-entry-visual-tc"><div class="uncode-single-media-wrapper"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-20096" src="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU.png" width="1132" height="637" alt="" srcset="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU.png 1132w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU-300x169.png 300w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU-1024x576.png 1024w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU-768x432.png 768w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU-350x197.png 350w" sizes="(max-width: 1132px) 100vw, 1132px" /></div>
					</div>
				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>Map: countries in political transition suspended from the AU</figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-9" data-row="script-row-unique-9" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-9"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-10"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter single-top-padding single-bottom-padding one-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">During tomorrow’s informal consultation it is expected that some of the representatives of the affected countries will raise concerns on how suspension from the AU continues to affect effective engagement of the AU. It is worth recalling that one of the reasons for the use of the informal consultation is to provide a platform for engagement between the PSC and the affected countries. As a manifestation of the fact that suspension does not sever AU’s responsibilities towards affected countries, the PSC undertook missions to some of these countries. In September 2024, the PSC undertook a mission to Gabon. The following month, the PSC spent a day in Port Sudan on a field visit as well.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Yet, it remains unclear how these engagements have changed the dynamics of AU’s role in relation to these countries. For example, in the case of Sudan, it appears that the expectation from Port Sudan was for the lifting of Sudan’s suspension. Indeed, this issue was put on the agenda of the PSC during its session on 9 October. After debating the matter, a divided PSC adopted a principled position of upholding the suspension. This is not surprising, considering that there is no political process in Sudan to warrant the lifting of the country’s suspension from AU activities.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This outcome affirms that the effort to improve AU’s engagement in these countries cannot be reduced to the narrow issue of the lifting of suspension. Principally, the expectation, also from earlier experiences, is that the AU deploys and maintains robust diplomatic engagement focusing as relevant on two areas. First, this involves instituting a dedicated mechanism to work with the national actors on the transitional process on a sustained basis. <strong>When the AU suspends a state from its activities, its responsibility for sustained engagement becomes higher than usual.</strong> Second, the AU is rightly expected to initiate and deploy all the relevant policy measures to address the peace and security challenges facing these countries. <strong>For a long time, the focus on the unconstitutional change of government has overshadowed the imperative for the AU to elevate its policy action to address the security threats facing, most notably, the Sahelian countries in transition.</strong> This has led to charges of AU being absent in having an active role with respect to the existential threat facing these countries. A case in point is the fact that the AU has not for a long time filled the position of the head of its mission in Mali and Sahel (MISAHL), which has been vacant since the departure of Mamane Sidikou in mid-2023.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Indeed, with respect to the countries in the Sahel, the PSC itself, at its 1212<sup>th</sup> session, rightly expressed concern about ‘the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel region due to the activities of terrorist and insurgent groups, and the attendant dire humanitarian situation.’ Despite this concern and the fact that the persistence of conflicts involving terrorist groups is at the core of the security and institutional crises facing Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, the PSC, once again, failed to consider concrete steps for helping to address, this principal challenge. Putting a spotlight on this lack of meaningful action, the AU Commission Chairperson, in his address to the AU Assembly on 17 February 2024, posed the following rhetorical questions: ‘How should we stop watching terrorism ravage some of our countries without doing anything? How can we accept just watching African countries destroyed, and entire regions engulfed by tremors and tsunamis, without doing anything significant?’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In terms of instituting a dedicated mechanism to work with national authorities for facilitating transitional processes, it can be discerned from the outcome of the 1212<sup>th</sup> session of the PSC that the AU neither deployed effective mechanisms nor ensured the effective functioning of existing ones. As a result, the PSC reiterated its request for the AU Commission ‘to appoint a High-Level Facilitator at the level of sitting or former Head of State to engage with the Transitional Authorities.’ Additionally, taking note of ‘the leadership vacuum within the African Union Mission for Mali and Sahel (MISAHEL)’ at a time when the AU needs active engagement in these countries, the PSC requested ‘the Chairperson of the AU Commission to ensure the nomination of a High Representative, which remains a crucial interface in ensuring collective oversight between the Commission, Council, and the Countries in transition.’ The AU Commission Chairperson failed to act on this demand and his term came to an end, leaving MISAHEL without a leader.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">One notable and positive development that emerged since the 1212<sup>th</sup> PSC meeting is the decision of the AU to use the Crisis Reserve Facility of the Peace Fund to provide symbolic funding for supporting the efforts of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali in the fight against terrorist groups with allocation of $ 1 million to Burkina Faso and $ 500,000 each to Niger and Mali.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In terms of enhancing AU’s role in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, the AU may build on this recent support and <strong>adopt a Sahel stabilisation strategy supported by the activation of the </strong><strong>decision to deploy 3000 troops to the Sahel made by the AU Assembly at its 33</strong><strong><sup>rd</sup></strong><strong> Ordinary Session [Assembly/AU/Dec.792(XXXIII)] in February 2020</strong>. It is a good time to have such a strategy and deployment considering the decision of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali as the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS) to deploy a new regional 5000 strong force to fight against terrorism.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">It is expected that some of the representatives of the countries concerned may put a spotlight on the lack of consistency of the AU in applying the rules on unconstitutional changes of government. This may become a key area of contestation, particularly as it relates to the eligibility of the coup makers for elections that may be held for restoring constitutional order. Despite the fact that the PSC affirmed the AU rule that the members of the Transitional Military Council in Chad are ineligible for election, the Chairman of the Council, Mahamat Idriss Déby, oversaw an orchestrated national dialogue and constitutional referendum that enabled him to run for elections, ultimately being declared the winner of the 6 May 2024 presidential election. The PSC’s failure to enforce its principles and decisions against the eligibility of military authorities in elections has put the AU in the difficult position of not being able to uphold this principle with respect to military leaders in other countries in transition, as highlighted by the 16 September 2024 edition of <em>Amani Africa’s </em><a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/is-the-african-union-failing-countries-in-complex-political-transition-insights-from-the-peace-and-security-councils-recent-session/"><em>Ideas Indaba</em></a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Another issue likely to receive attention in tomorrow’s engagement is the duration of the transition period. In Burkina Faso, the transitional timeline initially agreed to come to an end by 2 July 2024 has been extended by an additional five years. Similarly, Mali’s agreed timeline with ECOWAS for a February 2024 transition has been postponed indefinitely. In Niger, no clear transition timeline has been announced, though the junta proposed a three-year period. Guinea, which had committed to organising elections by the end of 2024 under a 24-month transition agreement with ECOWAS, also failed to meet this deadline. In Sudan, the prospect of a return to civilian rule has become a distant luxury as the ongoing conflict plunges the country into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Meanwhile, Gabon’s transitional government has set 12 April 2025 as the date for the presidential election to end military rule, which has been in place since August 2023. Earlier this month, military leader General Brice Oligui Nguema announced his intention to run for President in the upcoming election. <strong>The variations in the specific political, institutional and security context of these countries also underscore that a generalised approach to AU’s role in respect to these countries would be inadequate and unfit and require a policy approach tailored to the specificities of each.</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Tomorrow’s informal consultation is also expected to touch on the issue of the severing of ties by three central Sahel countries with ECOWAS, dealing a major blow to AU’s ideal of regional integration. On 15 December, during its <a href="https://www.ecowas.int/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/FINAL-Communique_ENG-1_241216_173334.pdf">66th ordinary session</a>, ECOWAS approved the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger (who formed their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES abbreviated in French) from the regional bloc, effective 29 January 2025. However, it also decided to institute a six-month transitional period (29 January–29 July 2025) for these countries, leaving the door open for them to reverse their decision. In a step that signals the determination of the countries to exit ECOWAS, the three states unveiled a new common passport of the Confederation of Sahel States, which is expected to come into circulation the same day the exit from ECOWAS takes effect. <strong>That the separation of AES states from ECOWAS took effect is an indictment on the AU’s role of advancing regional integration, underscoring its inability, if not failure, to play the role of mediating between the two</strong>.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">No outcome document is expected from tomorrow’s informal engagement.</p>
<p>
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</div><p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-political-transition-5/">Informal consultation with countries in political transition</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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		<title>Informal consultations with countries in political transition</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jan 2025 07:42:54 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Popular Uprisings and Unconstitutional Changes of Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unconstitutional change of Governments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2025]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=20095</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>26 January 2025</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/informal-consultations-with-countries-in-political-transition/">Informal consultations with countries in political transition</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wpb-content-wrapper"><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-11"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter double-top-padding single-bottom-padding one-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="empty-space empty-half" ><span class="empty-space-inner"></span></div>
<div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h1 class="font-555555 fontsize-189933 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-color-165108-color" ><span><strong>Informal consultations with countries in political transition *</strong></span></h1></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 26 January 2025</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Tomorrow (27 January), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will hold informal consultations with countries in political transition at the ambassadorial level.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Informal consultations with countries undergoing political transitions were incorporated into the PSC’s repertoire of working methods following its decision during the 14<sup>th</sup> Retreat on working methods, held in November 2022. The conclusions of the retreat introduced these consultations as a mechanism to facilitate direct engagement with representatives of countries suspended from participation in the AU due to unconstitutional changes of government, in line with Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol. Since then, two such consultations have been held in April and December 2023.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The last time the PSC held informal consultations with countries in political transition was in December 2023. Since then, the PSC convened its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1212.comm_en-political-transition-in-Burkina-Faso-Gabon-Guinea-Mali-and-Niger.pdf">1212th</a> session on 20 May 2024 as a formal meeting to receive updated briefings on the political transitions in Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, and Niger. The PSC also conducted a field mission to Gabon in September 2024. Tomorrow’s session presents an opportunity for the PSC and countries in political transition to exchange views on the latest developments and provides a platform for candid discussions on concerning trends affecting the restoration of constitutional order in these countries.</p>
<p>
</div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-11" data-row="script-row-unique-11" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-11"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-12"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter no-top-padding no-bottom-padding single-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="uncode-single-media  text-left"><div class="single-wrapper" style="max-width: 100%;"><div class="tmb tmb-light  tmb-media-first tmb-media-last tmb-content-overlay tmb-no-bg"><div class="t-inside"><div class="t-entry-visual"><div class="t-entry-visual-tc"><div class="uncode-single-media-wrapper"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-20096" src="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU.png" width="1132" height="637" alt="" srcset="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU.png 1132w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU-300x169.png 300w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU-1024x576.png 1024w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU-768x432.png 768w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-of-countries-in-political-transition-suspended-from-the-AU-350x197.png 350w" sizes="(max-width: 1132px) 100vw, 1132px" /></div>
					</div>
				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>Map: countries in political transition suspended from the AU</figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-12" data-row="script-row-unique-12" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-12"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-13"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter single-top-padding single-bottom-padding one-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">During tomorrow’s informal consultation it is expected that some of the representatives of the affected countries will raise concerns on how suspension from the AU continues to affect effective engagement of the AU. It is worth recalling that one of the reasons for the use of the informal consultation is to provide a platform for engagement between the PSC and the affected countries. Since the introduction of this format, the engagement between the PSC and these countries has shown improvements. In September 2024, the PSC undertook a mission to Gabon. The following month, the PSC spent a day in Port Sudan on a field visit as well.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Despite these improvements, it remains unclear how these engagements have changed the dynamics of the AU’s role in relation to these countries. For example, in the case of Sudan, it appears that the expectation from Port Sudan was for the lifting of Sudan’s suspension. Indeed, this issue was put on the agenda of the PSC during its session on 9 October. After debating the matter, a divided PSC adopted a principled position of upholding the suspension. This is not surprising, considering that there is no political process in Sudan to warrant the lifting of the country’s suspension from AU activities.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This outcome affirms that the effort to improve AU’s engagement in these countries cannot be reduced to the narrow issue of the lifting of suspension. Principally, the expectation, also from earlier experiences, is that the AU deploys and maintains robust diplomatic engagement focusing as relevant on two areas. First, this involves instituting a dedicated mechanism to work with the national actors on the transitional process on a sustained basis. When the AU suspends a state from its activities, its responsibility for sustained engagement becomes higher than usual. Second, the AU is rightly expected to initiate and deploy all the relevant policy measures to address the peace and security challenges facing these countries. <strong>For a long time, the focus on the unconstitutional change of government has overshadowed the imperative for the AU to elevate its policy action to address the threats facing, most notably, the Sahelian countries in transition.</strong> This has led to charges of AU being absent in having an active role in respect to the existential threat facing these countries. A case in point is the fact that the AU has not for a long time filled the position of the head of its mission in Mali and Sahel (MISAHL), which has been vacant since the departure of Mamane Sidikou in mid-2023.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Indeed, with respect to the countries in the Sahel, the PSC itself, at its 1212<sup>th</sup> session, rightly expressed concern about ‘the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel region due to the activities of terrorist and insurgent groups, and the attendant dire humanitarian situation.’ Despite this concern and the fact that the persistence of conflicts involving terrorist groups is at the core of the security and institutional crises facing Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, the PSC, once again, failed to consider concrete steps for helping to address this principal challenge. Putting a spotlight on this lack of meaningful action, the AU Commission Chairperson, in his address to the AU Assembly on 17 February 2024, posed the following rhetorical questions: ‘How should we stop watching terrorism ravage some of our countries without doing anything? How can we accept just watching African countries destroyed and entire regions engulfed by tremors and tsunamis without doing anything significant?’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In terms of instituting a dedicated mechanism to work with national authorities for facilitating transitional processes, it can be discerned from the outcome of the 1212<sup>th</sup> session of the PSC that the AU neither deployed effective mechanisms nor ensured the effective functioning of existing ones. As a result, the PSC reiterated its request for the AU Commission ‘to appoint a High-Level Facilitator at the level of sitting or former Head of State to engage with the Transitional Authorities.’ Additionally, taking note of ‘the leadership vacuum within the African Union Mission for Mali and Sahel (MISAHEL)’ at a time when the AU needs active engagement in these countries, the PSC requested ‘the Chairperson of the AU Commission to ensure the nomination of a High Representative, which remains a crucial interface in ensuring collective oversight between the Commission, Council, and the Countries in transition.’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">One notable and positive development that emerged since the 1212<sup>th</sup> PSC meeting is the decision of the AU to use the Crisis Reserve Facility of the Peace Fund to provide symbolic funding for supporting the efforts of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali in the fight against terrorist groups with an allocation of $ 1 million to Burkina Faso and $ 500,000 each to Niger and Mali.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In terms of enhancing the AU’s role in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, the AU may build on this recent support and <strong>adopt a Sahel stabilisation strategy supported by the activation of the </strong><strong>decision to deploy 3000 troops to the Sahel made by the AU Assembly at its 33</strong><strong><sup>rd</sup></strong><strong> Ordinary Session [Assembly/AU/Dec.792(XXXIII)] in February 2020</strong>. It is a good time to have such a strategy and deployment, considering the decision of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to deploy a new regional 5000-strong force to fight against terrorism.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">It is expected that some of the representatives of the countries concerned may put a spotlight on the lack of consistency of the AU in applying the rules on unconstitutional changes of government. This may become a key area of contestation, particularly as it relates to the eligibility of the coup makers for elections that may be held for restoring constitutional order. Despite the fact that the PSC affirmed the AU rule that the members of the Transitional Military Council in Chad are ineligible for election, the Chairman of the Council, Mahamat Idriss Déby, oversaw an orchestrated national dialogue and constitutional referendum that enabled him to run for elections, ultimately being declared the winner of the 6 May 2024 presidential election. The PSC’s failure to enforce its principles and decisions against the eligibility of military authorities in elections has put the AU in the difficult position of not being able to uphold this principle with respect to military leaders in other countries in transition, as highlighted by the 16 September 2024 edition of <em>Amani Africa’s </em><a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/is-the-african-union-failing-countries-in-complex-political-transition-insights-from-the-peace-and-security-councils-recent-session/"><em>Ideas Indaba</em></a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Another issue likely to receive attention in tomorrow’s engagement is the duration of the transition period. In Burkina Faso, the transitional timeline initially agreed to come to an end by 2 July 2024 has been extended by an additional five years. Similarly, Mali’s agreed timeline with ECOWAS for a February 2024 transition has been postponed indefinitely. In Niger, no clear transition timeline has been announced, though the junta proposed a three-year period. Guinea, which had committed to organising elections by the end of 2024 under a 24-month transition agreement with ECOWAS, also failed to meet this deadline. In Sudan, the prospect of a return to civilian rule has become a distant luxury as the ongoing conflict plunges the country into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Meanwhile, Gabon’s transitional government has set 12 April 2025 as the date for the presidential election to end military rule, which has been in place since August 2023. <strong>The variations in the specific political, institutional and security context of these countries also underscore that a, generalised approach to AU’s role with respect to these countries would be inadequate and unfit and require a policy approach tailored to the specificities of each.</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Tomorrow’s informal consultation is also expected to touch on the issue of the severing of ties by three central Sahel countries with ECOWAS, dealing a major blow to AU’s ideal of regional integration. On 15 December, during its <a href="https://www.ecowas.int/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/FINAL-Communique_ENG-1_241216_173334.pdf">66th ordinary session</a>, ECOWAS approved the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger (who formed their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES abbreviated in French) from the regional bloc, effective 29 January 2025. However, it also decided to institute a six-month transitional period (29 January–29 July 2025) for these countries, leaving the door open for them to reverse their decision. In a step that signals the determination of the countries to exit ECOWAS, the three states unveiled a new common passport of the Confederation of Sahel States, which is expected to come into circulation the same day the exit from ECOWAS takes effect. <strong>That the separation of AES states from ECOWAS may take effect is an indictment on the AU’s role of advancing regional integration, underscoring its inability, if not failure, to play the role of mediating between the two</strong>.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">No outcome document is expected from tomorrow’s informal engagement.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong><em>*Post Script: The session was postponed indefinitely. </em></strong></p>
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		<title>Presentation of the Report of the Inaugural Meeting of the PSC Sub Committee on Sanctions</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/presentation-of-the-report-of-the-inaugural-meeting-of-the-psc-sub-committee-on-sanctions/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Aug 2024 07:32:39 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Popular Uprisings and Unconstitutional Changes of Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unconstitutional change of Governments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2024]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=19180</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>14 August 2024</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/presentation-of-the-report-of-the-inaugural-meeting-of-the-psc-sub-committee-on-sanctions/">Presentation of the Report of the Inaugural Meeting of the PSC Sub Committee on Sanctions</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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<div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h1 class="font-555555 fontsize-189933 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-color-165108-color" ><span><strong>Presentation of the Report of the Inaugural Meeting of the PSC Sub Committee on Sanctions</strong></span></h1></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 14 August 2024</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Tomorrow (15 August), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1227<sup>th</sup> session to receive the report of the inaugural meeting of the PSC Sub-Committee on Sanctions.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Permanent Representative of Botswana to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for August 2024, Tebelelo A. Boang, is expected to deliver the opening remarks, followed by statements from the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye. Michael Wamai, an expert from Uganda to the AU and Chairperson of the Sub-Committee for the month of June 2024, is anticipated to present the report of the inaugural meeting of the Sub-Committee on Sanctions.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This session is convened in line with the decision made during the inaugural meeting of the PSC Sub-Committee on Sanctions (SCS) on 12 June 2024, in which the Sub-Committee agreed that the Chairperson for June, Michael Wamai, would present the Summary Record of the meeting to the PSC for consideration.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The PSC SCS was launched in June, fifteen years after the PSC first decided to establish it during its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/178.comm-election-and-governance-issues.pdf">178<sup>th</sup></a> session in March 2009. This decision was made pursuant to Article 8(5) of the PSC Protocol, which empowers the Council to create subsidiary bodies to perform its functions. Despite the 2009 decision, momentum for operationalising the Sanctions Committee only accelerated in recent years, largely due to the resurgence of military coups across the continent since 2021. With six Member States currently suspended from AU activities due to unconstitutional changes of government (UCG), it appears that the AU’s anti-coup norms—once praised for reducing the occurrence of UCGs in Africa—are now facing significant challenges, raising doubts about their effectiveness.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>The inaugural meeting of the PSC Sub-Committee on Sanctions, 12 June 2024 (source: @AUC_PAPS)</figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-15" data-row="script-row-unique-15" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-15"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-16"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter single-top-padding single-bottom-padding one-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Although the PSC has the option to impose a range of sanctions beyond suspension, the most common form of sanction that the PSC adopted over the years remains suspension. During its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/15th-PSC-Annual-Retreat-Conclusions-EN.pdf">15<sup>th</sup> retreat</a> on its working methods, held in Tunis, Tunisia in November 2023, the PSC recognised various challenges in the implementation of AU sanction regimes. These include: disparities between the AU and some RECs/RMs on the application of sanctions regimes, non-compliance by some neighbouring countries in the implementation of sanctions imposed by the PSC, and lack of enforcement mechanisms. In response to these challenges, recent years have seen renewed efforts to reactivate and operationalise the PSC SCS. For instance, PSC’s 1061<sup>st</sup> session, the ACCRA Declaration on UCG in March 2022, and the 16<sup>th</sup> extraordinary session of the AU Assembly on terrorism and UCG, held in May 2022, called for the operationalisation of the Sub-Committee on sanctions. Particularly significant was PSC’s <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/1100.comm_en.pdf">1100<sup>th</sup></a> session, which directed the Committee of Experts (CoE) to develop the Terms of Reference (ToR) for the SCS.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Against the background of the repeated calls for the operationalisation of the SCS, the AU Commission organised training to enhance the capacity of the PSC CoE on sanctions in Accra in September 2022, which enabled the development of ToRs for the PSC SCS while outlining modalities for operationalising the Sub-Committee. The ToRs were further developed during the retreat of the CoE in Zanzibar held in May 2023 and were considered by the PSC during its 15<sup>th</sup> retreat on working methods in Tunis, Tunisia, in November 2023.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>Key decisions and milestones in the operationalisation of the PSC Sub-Committee on Sanctions</figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-17" data-row="script-row-unique-17" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-17"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-18"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter single-top-padding double-bottom-padding one-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The SCS, comprising the fifteen expert-level members of the PSC, is envisaged to serve as a technical Sub-Committee to assist the PSC on matters relating to sanctions within the framework of Articles 7(g) and 8(5) of the PSC Protocol. According to the ToRs, the chairperson of the Sub-Committee will align with the monthly rotational chairship of the PSC and the PSC Troika to ensure continuity. While the ToRs do not specify the exact frequency of meetings, the Sub-Committee agreed during its inaugural meeting in June to convene at least once a month and additionally as needed, as determined by the PSC. The ToRs also stipulate that the Sub-Committee will provide the PSC with at least quarterly reports on its activities and the implementation of specific sanctions measures.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">During tomorrow’s session, Michael Wamai is expected to brief the PSC on the key outcomes of the inaugural meeting. As noted in our <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/without-purse-or-sword-what-is-the-peace-and-security-council-sanctions-sub-committee-worth/">policy brief</a>, one of the critical contributions of the Sub-Committee lies in restoring some level of the lost credibility of AU’s anti-coup norm faced, due to PSC’s failure to apply the norm consistently as highlighted by the case of Chad, by ensuring consistent application by the PSC.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In this regard, a key outcome of the inaugural meeting was its emphasis on the imperative of uniformly applying AU normative instruments and measures against Member States that experience UCG, avoiding selective or case-by-case approaches. This is particularly important given the setback the PSC faced after its handling of the military takeover in Chad in April 2021, in which the Council not only failed to label the military’s seizure of power as UCG but also fell short of imposing sanctions as per its instruments and well-established practice. It was also unable to enforce its decision barring the leader of the Transitional Military Council not to take part in the 6 May 2024 Presidential elections, setting <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/amani-africa-dispatch-chads-6-may-election-pose-new-dilemmas-to-the-au-with-serious-implications-to-other-cases/">a dangerous precedent</a> for similar situations in Mali, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Niger, and Sudan.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Furthermore, given the lack of clarity surrounding the processes and criteria for lifting sanctions—and the potential for this ambiguity to cause policy divergence with RECs/RMS, as evidenced in the cases of Sudan and Gabon with IGAD and ECCAS, respectively calling for lifting of suspension before conditions were met—the inaugural meeting underscored the need to develop robust sanctions implementation, monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, as well as a universally applicable procedure for imposing and lifting sanctions.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Considering the uncertainties surrounding the return to constitutional order in many African countries undergoing political transitions, the inaugural meeting also emphasised the need for the Sub-Committee to devise practical measures to address situations of prolonged or stalled transitions. It also stressed the importance of continuing the practice of holding informal consultations with these countries, providing a platform to update progress toward restoring constitutional order.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Another key outcome of the inaugural meeting, likely to be highlighted during tomorrow’s session, is the Sub-Committee’s request for the AU Commission to conduct a comprehensive study on the effectiveness of sanctions as a deterrent against UCG. A follow-up on this remains crucial, given that the efficacy of AU actions against coups depends on a clear appreciation of the sources of influence and leverage of the AU. The meeting also stressed the importance of assessing the impact of sanctions on the broader public in Member States experiencing UCG and submitting the findings to the PSC.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Amani Africa’s policy brief further notes that the ‘effective functioning of the Sub-Committee also depends on the extent to which its works draws on and is informed by solid independent technical analysis and advise.’ In this context, the Sub-Committee, during its inaugural meeting, underlined the need for regular capacity-building training for its Members, and the importance of collaborating with entities such as CISSA, AFRIPOL and INTERPOL. Reactivating other PSC Sub-Committees with a complimentary mandate was also deemed essential for fulfilling its functions effectively. However, as the policy brief argues, it is imperative to accompany the Sub-Committee with an independent expert body on AU Response to UCGs for the provision of objective and in-depth technical advisory and support on the basis of independent assessment and analysis that helps the Sub-Committee to navigate the complex political dynamics relating to situations of UCG.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The SCS is now operational, with its first task—assigned during the PSC Summit on 21 June 2024—to identify external actors supporting Sudan&#8217;s warring parties and propose containment strategies within three months. However, the Sub-Committee’s success in fulfilling its mandate will largely depend on its technical capacity and the degree of political support it receives from the AU.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The session’s outcome remains uncertain, but it seems the Sub-Committee aims to have the report of its inaugural meeting adopted through a communiqué. The PSC is expected to welcome the launch of the Sub-Committee on Sanctions as a significant step in strengthening its institutional framework to address unconstitutional changes of government in the continent. In adopting the inaugural meeting report, the PSC is expected to highlight key outcomes, including a request for the AU Commission to conduct a comprehensive study on the effectiveness of the AU’s sanctions regime, the development of robust mechanisms for implementing, monitoring, and evaluating sanctions, and the establishment of a universally applicable procedure for imposing and lifting sanctions. The PSC may stress the importance of equipping the Sub-Committee with the necessary technical and financial resources to effectively fulfill its mandate, while also reminding the Sub-Committee to submit at least quarterly reports on its activities, in accordance with its Terms of Reference.</p>
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