Update on the political transition and security situation in Guinea-Bissau
Update on the political transition and security situation in Guinea-BissauDate | 17 May 2026
Tomorrow (18 May), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1347th session to receive an update on the political transition and security situation in Guinea-Bissau.
The session will proceed in two segments. In the opening segment, an opening statement will be delivered by Nasir Aminu, Permanent Representative of Nigeria to the AU and Chair of the PSC for May, followed by introductory remarks by Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS). Patrice Émery Trovoada, AU Special Envoy for Guinea-Bissau, is also scheduled to brief the Council, while the representative of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is expected to make a statement. Ovídio Manuel Barbosa Pequeno, Special Representative of the Chairperson of the AU Commission to Guinea-Bissau will make presentation during the closed segment.
This will be the second time the PSC meeting on the situation in Guinea-Bissau in less than three months, with the previous meeting having been convened on 5 March during its 1333rd session. At that session, the PSC took note of the adoption of a Transitional Roadmap for the restoration of constitutional order, which provides for a one-year transitional period culminating in elections scheduled for 6 December 2026. In this context, the PSC urged the full, timely, inclusive, and transparent implementation of the roadmap in accordance with the agreed timelines, in order to create the necessary conditions for the successful organisation of credible elections. The PSC also called on the interim authorities in Guinea-Bissau to immediately and unconditionally release Mr Domingos Simões Pereira and all other political detainees, and to respect the fundamental rights and freedoms of all citizens of Guinea-Bissau. In addition, the Council directed the AU Commission to sustain engagement with the transitional authorities, including through the provision of technical support to the National Election Commission, while stressing the importance of an inclusive national dialogue involving all political movements, civil society, women, and youth. Furthermore, the Council also expressed its anticipation for the AU-ECOWAS joint assessment mission and decided to undertake a field mission to the country during the course of 2026.
As noted in our Monthly Digest for March 2026, the PSC’s focus appears to have shifted from the position it adopted at its 1315th session — where the Council specifically urged the military leaders to allow the completion of the electoral process disrupted by the military coup of 26 November 2025 — towards supporting the country’s progression towards the envisaged elections in December 2026. Against this background, tomorrow’s engagement is expected to focus on ways of steering the country towards a timely, inclusive, transparent, and credible electoral process, while also assessing recent political and security developments that have taken place since the Council’s last session in March.
Political repression appears to have worsened following the November 2025 military coup, with conditions for media freedom and civil liberties also deteriorating. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights characterises the political environment in the country since the coup as reflecting a ‘progressive reduction in civic and democratic space.’ It has been noted that members of the opposition and human rights defenders have been arbitrarily detained, assaulted, harassed and intimidated, that demonstrations have been dispersed, and that radio stations have been suspended.
Two recent developments in particular underscore this characterisation of worsening political repression and the shrinking of political space, with serious implications for the creation of an enabling environment for the upcoming elections.
The first is the killing of Vigário Luís Balanta, a civil society activist and critic of Guinea-Bissau’s military authorities. His body was found on 31 March 2026 on the outskirts of Bissau, reportedly bearing signs of torture. The killing triggered protests in the capital following his funeral, which were subsequently dispersed by police. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed shock at the killing and called for an urgent, thorough, and impartial investigation and for those responsible to be brought to justice through fair trial proceedings. It further reiterated concerns that members of the opposition and human rights defenders have been arbitrarily detained, assaulted, harassed and intimidated, and that demonstrations have been dispersed.
The second concerning development is the reported crackdown on media outlets, particularly radio stations, allegedly linked to issues of licensing fees. The PSC may also wish to follow up on the status of Domingos Simões Pereira, leader of the opposition PAIGC, who was detained following the coup and, although reportedly released in late January, is still said to remain under house arrest.
As the elections are now less than seven months away, robust high-level diplomatic engagement by the AU Commission is imperative to keep the transition on course and ensure the successful completion of the transitional process through the holding of timely elections in a politically conducive environment. While the appointment of a Special Envoy for Guinea-Bissau by the Chairperson of the AU Commission is an encouraging step towards sustaining diplomatic engagement with the country and accompanying it throughout the transition period, this should also be complemented by high-level political engagement, including a mission to the country at the level of the Chairperson of the Commission or the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, aimed at creating conditions conducive to competitive elections. Such engagement would be particularly effective if undertaken jointly with ECOWAS, in order to maximise leverage on the transitional authorities and ensure coherent messaging by both organisations.
Moreover, as highlighted during the PSC’s 1333rd session, there is a need for the AU to provide technical support to strengthen the capacity of institutions relevant to the conduct of credible elections, including the National Electoral Commission and the independence of the Supreme Court, which serves as the ultimate judicial authority overseeing the electoral process in the country. To translate this into concrete action, the PSC may consider requesting the AU Commission to dispatch a technical assessment mission to Guinea-Bissau to evaluate the electoral environment and identify priority support needs.
Another issue of interest to the Council could be ensuring that the upcoming elections are conducted in line with the AU’s anti-coup norms, particularly article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), which prohibits perpetrators of unconstitutional changes of government from participating in elections organised to restore constitutional order. This issue is particularly significant in light of the recent trend within the Council of retreating from strict adherence to article 25(4), as reflected in the lifting of sanctions on Gabon and Guinea in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite elections in both countries conducted in apparent contravention of this provision. The PSC also omitted reference to the provision during its recent sessions on Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar held in March 2025. It is recalled that the AU Chairperson for 2025, Angola’s President João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço, emphasised during the 39th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly in February 2026 that the restoration of constitutional order cannot be deemed complete where those who seize power unconstitutionally subsequently organise elections and legitimise their rule through electoral victory. In this regard, it remains important for the Council to stress the continued relevance of this provision and to clearly remind the transitional authorities of their ineligibility to participate in the upcoming elections.
The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communiqué. The PSC may emphasise the importance of creating political conditions conducive to credible elections in Guinea-Bissau, as a prerequisite for the successful completion of the transition process. It may further underline the need to respect fundamental human rights and the rule of law in the country. In this regard, and echoing the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, the Council may express concern over the deteriorating civic and democratic space following the November 2025 military coup. It may also condemn the brutal killing of civil society activist Vigário Luís Balanta and call for an urgent, thorough, and impartial investigation into the killing, as well as the prosecution of those responsible. The PSC may further reiterate the importance of strengthening electoral institutions and ensuring the independence of the Supreme Court in order to safeguard the integrity of the upcoming December elections. In this context, the Council may request the AU Commission to dispatch a technical assessment mission to evaluate electoral conditions and identify the necessary support needs. While emphasising the imperative of sustained and coordinated diplomatic engagement with the transitional authorities to ensure a successful transition, the PSC may request the Commission to undertake a high-level political mission led by the Chairperson of the Commission or the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, in coordination with ECOWAS. It may also follow up on its previous decision to undertake a field mission by specifying a clear timeline, as well as by establishing an AU monitoring mechanism to effectively track developments in the country.