Confronting Instability in Africa, Rebuilding Agency in a Fractured World: Why Africa Must Rethink Its Peace Architecture Now

Confronting Instability in Africa, Rebuilding Agency in a Fractured World

Why Africa Must Rethink Its Peace Architecture Now

Date | 9 March 2026

Désiré Assogbavi

Advisor at the Open Society Foundations

Across Africa, what once appeared as isolated crises are now merging into a broader continental conflict belt stretching from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, through Sudan and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and increasingly toward parts of coastal West Africa.

These conflicts are complex and interconnected (see here). Violent extremism, unconstitutional changes of government, transnational crime, communal tensions, and intensifying geopolitical competition are combining to reshape the continent’s security landscape, representing the ‘crystalisation of new era of insecurity’.

A Peace Architecture Designed for Another Era

Over the past two decades, the African Union has built one of the most ambitious regional security frameworks in the world, the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), anchored on the Peace and Security Council (PSC), AU’s premier standing peace and security decision-making body. APSA is made up of the Panel of the Wise, the Continental Early Warning System, the African Standby Force and the Peace Fund and represented the most significant step towards the realization of the longstanding quest for Pax-Africana.  Yet today’s crises look very different from those of the early 2000s.

Conflicts are now more transnational, and more intertwined with economic and environmental pressures. Security responses alone cannot address conflicts whose roots lie in governance failures, demographic pressure, economic fragility, and climate stress. It is now long overdue that the tools that are deployed for addressing twenty‑first century crises fully embrace and systematically integrate the full range of governance, institution building and development instruments as envisaged in both the PSC Protocol and the Solemn African Common Position on Defense and Security.

The decision by African leaders to convene an Extraordinary Summit on Conflicts later this year in Luanda therefore represents a critical opportunity, not just to discuss ongoing wars, but to rethink how Africa organizes and pursues its collective security.

The Structural Drivers of African Conflicts

Africa’s conflicts cannot be understood purely through a military or security lens.

Governance deficits remain central. Weak institutions, contested political transitions, and declining public trust in the state create fertile ground for instability. Youth marginalization is also reshaping political dynamics. Africa is the youngest region in the world, with roughly 60 percent of its population under the age of 25.

Economic fragility and rising debt pressures reduce governments’ capacity to invest in social stability. At the same time, climate pressures are intensifying competition over land, water, and natural resources in fragile regions.

Taken together, these drivers show that peacebuilding must link governance, development, and economic transformation. They also signify the necessity of sustained high-level collective push for the reform of international financial system.

Critical Minerals, Strategic Competition, and Conflict Risks

Another structural factor that deserves far greater attention is the growing connection between critical minerals and conflict dynamics in Africa. The global energy transition has sharply increased demand for minerals such as cobalt, lithium, manganese, graphite, rare earths, and platinum group metals, many of which are concentrated in African countries.

This surge in demand is turning parts of Africa into frontlines of global geo-strategic competition. In countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and parts of the Sahel, mineral-rich regions are increasingly exposed to armed group activity, illicit trade networks, and external geopolitical interests seeking to secure supply chains. Without strong governance frameworks, the race for these resources’ risks reinforcing patterns long associated with the ‘resource curse,’ where wealth beneath the soil fuels instability rather than prosperity.

Illicit mineral trafficking already finances armed groups in several conflict zones. In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, control of mining sites and smuggling routes continues to sustain armed movements, inter-state tensions and criminal networks. Similar risks are emerging in other regions where weak state presence, corruption, and fragile institutions intersect with rapidly rising mineral demand. For this reason, the upcoming Extraordinary Summit on Peace and Security in Luanda should also examine the security implications of Africa’s critical mineral boom. If managed strategically, these resources could help finance development, industrialization, and economic transformation across the continent. But if governance remains weak, the global scramble for minerals could deepen local grievances, empower armed actors, and intensify geopolitical rivalry on African soil.

The challenge therefore is not simply about resource extraction. It is about building governance systems that prevent mineral wealth from becoming a driver of conflict. This includes strengthening transparency, ensuring local communities benefit from resource revenues, securing mining areas from armed exploitation, and promoting regional cooperation against illicit mineral trafficking.

In this sense, the debate on peace and security cannot be separated from Africa’s broader economic transformation agenda. How Africa governs its critical minerals may become one of the defining security questions of the next decade.

Africa in the Middle of Global Power Competition

Africa’s conflicts are increasingly shaped by external geopolitical dynamics (See here). Global powers are expanding their presence across the continent as security partners, investors, or strategic competitors.

The question is not whether Africa should work with international partners. The real question is who sets the strategic direction. Africa must remain firmly in the driver’s seat of its own conflict resolution processes.

The Need to Redefine Unconstitutional Change of Government & Adopt an effective Sanction Regime

Since 2020, Africa has experienced several military coups, concentrated largely in the Sahel. The African Union’s primary response, suspension from AU activities, has not been sufficient to deter unconstitutional changes of government.

Africa therefore needs a stronger and more credible sanctions regime including against coup administrations that return to power through self-organized elections.

Today, democracy in Africa is threatened not only by soldiers entering presidential palaces, but also by leaders quietly rewriting the rules of the game. This happens through manipulation of constitutions and the gradual capture of democratic institutions. In several countries, constitutional amendments have been used to remove or weaken presidential term limits, allowing incumbents to prolong their stay in power while maintaining the appearance of legal legitimacy. Electoral processes themselves are sometimes undermined through the politicization of electoral commissions, the misuse of state resources, or restrictions on opposition and civil society. In this context, defending constitutional order must go beyond reacting to military coups alone. The African Union and our regional economic communities must also address what could be described as ‘constitutional coups’, situations in which the letter of the law is manipulated to undermine its democratic spirit. Protecting constitutional governance therefore requires stronger norms, more credible political pressure, and a renewed commitment to democratic accountability across the continent.

Preventing Conflicts Before They Explode

Preventive diplomacy remains one of the most underutilized instruments within the African Union system (see here and here). Strengthening the political authority and operational capacity of the AU Commission (as extensively outlined in the final part of African Union floating adrift) could significantly improve the continent’s ability to prevent crises before they escalate.

Making the Extraordinary Summit Matter

The upcoming Extraordinary Summit on Peace and Security in Angola represents an important moment. But its success will depend on whether it avoids the trap of business as usual. Communities living in conflict‑affected areas, women peacebuilders, youth networks, civil society organizations, and traditional mediation structures must be included in the conversation. Across Africa, local communities possess rich traditions of mediation and reconciliation that should be integrated into continental peace strategies.

In closing

Peace and security are no longer standalone policy domains. They are deeply connected to governance legitimacy, economic resilience, and geopolitical shifts.

The upcoming Extraordinary Summit offers an opportunity to rethink how Africa organizes its collective security and rebuilds strategic agency in a fragmented world.

Africa does not need incremental adjustments. It needs bold thinking, institutional renewal, and political leadership capable of confronting the new realities of instability on the continent.