Tomorrow (28 October), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1308^th session to receive an update on the situation in South Sudan.

The meeting will be chaired by Tebelelo Boang, Permanent Representative of Botswana to the AU and the Chairperson of the PSC for October. Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) will make the introductory remarks. Statements are then expected to be delivered by representatives from South Sudan; South Africa (as Chairperson of the AU Ad Hoc High-Level Committee on South Sudan (C5); Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); Chairperson of the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (R-JMEC); and the representative of the United Nations Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). The most recent engagement of the PSC on South Sudan took place during its 1302^nd session, held on 19 September 2025. However, the session did not introduce any substantively new or different measures compared to the Council’s previous communiques on South Sudan. During that session, the Council issued a press release urging the Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU) to redouble its efforts toward the full implementation of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). The PSC also called for the organisation of a genuine, “all-inclusive South Sudanese national political dialogue leading to a national reconciliation process that would culminate in the successful conduct of democratic elections in December 2026”.

Since early 2025, the PSC’s engagements on South Sudan (1297^th, 1283^rd, 1270^th, and 1265^th Sessions) have unfolded amid escalating political and security instability. Since clashes erupted in March between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and armed groups linked to the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), the fragile peace established under the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) has been severely undermined. This incident triggered the most serious crisis since the signing of the 2018 peace agreement, with hostilities spreading across Upper Nile, Jonglei, Unity States, Central Equatoria, and Western Equatoria, causing extensive civilian displacement and loss of life.

The political and security situation in South Sudan has sharply deteriorated following the detention of senior officials, mainly First Vice President Riek Machar; the emergence of splinter factions; the deployment of Ugandan troops; and intensified military operations by the SSPDF against SPLM/A-IO and allied groups. Machar’s arrest effectively paralysed the RTGoNU, which the PSC previously described as a ‘blatant violation of the R-ARCSS.’ The crisis further escalated when Machar and eight other senior members of the SPLM/A-IO were charged on 11 September with murder, treason, crimes against humanity, and other serious offences linked to a White Army attack in Nasir County. Subsequently, Machar was temporarily suspended from the vice presidency pending his trial. Since Machar was placed under house arrest, multiple envoys seeking to meet Machar, including former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga in March and a delegation from the AU in April, have reportedly been denied access. As such, it is expected that during tomorrow’s session, the PSC is expected to receive an update on detention and legal processes concerning Riek Machar and other SPLM-IO detainees.

Beyond Machar’s detention, a series of political manoeuvres by President Kiir has further consolidated executive power while weakening coalition inclusivity. Since March, Kiir has undertaken extensive reshuffles by presidential decree, replacing senior officials, including the Chief of Defence Forces, the Chief Justice, the Central Bank Governor, and several state governors, moves the SPLM/A-IO has condemned as unilateral. The appointment of his daughter, Adut Salva Kiir, to a senior position has fueled perceptions of growing nepotism and entrenched patronage within the government, raising concerns about governance legitimacy and the monopolisation of state institutions by loyalist networks. Furthermore, President Kiir’s reconstitution of the high-level ad hoc committee overseeing the implementation of the R-ARCSS, which excluded former SPLM/A-IO representatives and instead incorporated members aligned with the Par Kuol splinter faction, has raised significant concern. The committee is mandated to oversee the implementation of all aspects of the R-ARCSS, except for provisions related to the permanent ceasefire and transitional security arrangements. Observers note that this move appears to signal an attempt to reshape the peace architecture in favour of the SPLM’s political dominance.

These political manoeuvres by President Kiir have significantly heightened tensions, triggering intense clashes between government forces and opposition groups, particularly in Upper Nile, Jonglei, Central Equatoria, and Western Equatoria, and resulting in substantial casualties and widespread displacement. The humanitarian situation has consequently worsened, with the UN (OCHA) reporting that, in addition to the existing two million internally displaced persons, more than 497,000 people were newly displaced between January and September 2025, approximately 321,000 due to conflict and 175,000 due to flooding. In response, the UN Human Rights Commission has urged the African Union and the UN Security Council to take decisive action to prevent further escalation. UNMISS, on the other hand, has reported increasing restrictions on humanitarian access and attacks on aid workers, warning of a potential collapse of life-saving services in the most affected regions. Exacerbating these challenges, according to OHCHR, systemic corruption among South Sudanese leaders continues to undermine governance and humanitarian interventions, deepening the crisis. It is therefore expected that the PSC’s deliberations will focus on the severe humanitarian repercussions resulting from the escalating political and security crisis.

Another key issue expected in tomorrow’s session, in view of the foregoing conditions, is the implementation of the R-ARCSS amid worsening humanitarian and governance conditions. In previous sessions, the PSC has also emphasised that the R-ARCSS remains the only viable framework for lasting peace, calling for investigations into violations of the R-ARCSS and warning that peace spoilers will be held accountable. The Revitalised Joint Monitoring Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), body monitoring the R-ARCSS, reported during the reporting period that the country faces a serious and growing risk of the unravelling of the 2018 peace agreement and relapse back to full-blown war. In the report it released this month, the Commission urged the RTGoNU to ‘urgently resolve the current political and security impasse and return to full and inclusive implementation of the R-ARCSS.’ Given the clear warning on the fast-growing risk of the deteriorating situation plunging the country back to large-scale national civil war, the PSC is expected to receive updates on the imminency of the risk and the ways and means and opportunities for reversing this risk.

On 11–12 August, the PSC conducted a field visit to South Sudan to assess the deteriorating political and security situation, review progress on the R-ARCSS, and discuss preparations for the 2026 elections. On 7 October, the RJMEC held an extraordinary meeting in Juba, warning that rising tensions and stalled implementation had increased the risk of a relapse into conflict unless urgent corrective action is taken. On 12 September, the UN Security Council(UNSC) unanimously adopted Resolution 2791 (2025), extending the Sudan sanctions regime, including targeted sanctions and the arms embargo, along with the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 12 October 2026, to align both timelines. Subsequently, on 13 October, the AU Commission Chairperson appointed Abdiwelli Ali as the AU Special Representative and Head of Mission to South Sudan, while important it does not dispense with the PSC’s earlier June call for the AU Chairperson’s sustained engagement with President Salva Kiir and regional leaders, fostering inclusive dialogue, facilitating the release of political detainees, and promoting full implementation of the R-ARCSS.

In tomorrow’s session, the PSC is also expected to follow up on its previous decisions aimed at advancing the implementation of key transitional provisions of the R-ARCSS. Specifically, the Council will likely assess progress on its earlier encouragement to the Trilateral Mechanism (AU, IGAD, and UN) to work closely with the RTGoNU in reactivating the Government–Trilateral Joint Task Force (JTF) to expedite the implementation of pending provisions, including the constitution-making and electoral processes. Furthermore, the PSC is expected to review the extent of progress made in operationalising transitional justice mechanisms, following its reiterated call for the RTGoNU to collaborate with the AU Commission’s Office of the Legal Counsel (OLC) in finalising the guidelines for establishing the Hybrid Court of South Sudan and defining modalities for truth, reconciliation, compensation, and reparation processes.

The expected outcome is a communique. The PSC is expected to express concern on the deteriorating political and humanitarian conditions and condemn continued violations of the R-ARCSS. It may also condemn the violence against civilians and humanitarian workers and call for credible investigations and accountability mechanisms. The PSC may also express concern over the stalled implementation status of the R-ARCSS. In this regard, the Council is expected to call for the acceleration of transitional security arrangements, particularly the unification and deployment of the Necessary Unified Forces, as well as institutional preparations for the election. Furthermore, the Council may reiterate that the R-ARCSS remains the most viable framework for sustainable peace and stability in South Sudan and may urge both parties to recommit to the permanent ceasefire and transitional roadmap. The PSC could also call for the release of all political detainees, restoration of political dialogue, and full reactivation of the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (CTSAMVM) to ensure compliance with the ceasefire. The PSC may echo RJMEC’s call on the RTGoNU to urgently resolve the current political and security impasse and return to full and inclusive implementation of the R-ARCSS. In addition, the PSC may reiterate its request for the AU Commission to maintain sustained engagement, including possibly appointing a High-Level Envoy to work jointly with IGAD, the C5, and the Trilateral Mechanism to facilitate direct dialogue between Kiir and Machar.