Tomorrow (4 June), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1351^st session to receive updates on the situation in Guinea.

The session will commence with opening statement by Nasir Aminu, Permanent Representative of Nigeria to the AU and Stand-in Chair of the PSC for June, followed by introductory remarks from Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS). Statements are also expected from the representative of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as the relevant Regional Economic Community, and from Guinea as the concerned Member State.

The last time the PSC met to discuss Guinea was during its 1325^th session, held on 22 January, against the backdrop of the presidential election of 28 December 2025, which saw the participation and election of Mamadi Doumbouya, who led the 2021 military coup, with 86.72 percent of the vote. Following the election, it is to be recalled that the Chairperson of the AU Commission and the AU Election Observation Mission called for the lifting of Guinea’s suspension from the AU. Accordingly, during its 1325^th session, the PSC decided to lift Guinea’s suspension and invited the country to immediately resume participation in the activities of the Union. ECOWAS subsequently followed suit by lifting sanctions on Guinea on 28 January and deciding to fully reintegrate the country into all the regional bloc’s decision-making organs and regional integration activities.

Tomorrow’s session comes on the heels of the legislative and local elections held on 31 May, during which Guineans went to the polls to elect 147 members of the National Assembly as well as municipal councillors in the country’s 342 communes.  However, concerns persist regarding the democratic and political trajectory Guinea is taking under Doumbouya’s leadership, amid growing fears of the emergence of a de facto one-party state and increasing political repression. In March, Guinea’s Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization dissolved 40 political parties, including three major opposition groups — the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), the Rally of the Guinean People (RPG), and the Union of Republican Forces (UFR) — which had already been suspended since August 2025. The Government justified the measure as a necessary step, arguing that the parties had failed to comply with legal and financial requirements. Critics, however, condemned the move as a decisive step toward the consolidation of a one-party state and the effective elimination of organised political opposition. Observers further warn that the dissolution of these parties is likely to affect the composition of municipal councils and parliament, thereby increasing the risk of one-sided political institutions, weakening checks and balances, and undermining the quality of democratic governance.

Meanwhile, political and democratic space has reportedly continued to shrink amid an escalating crackdown on protests, as well as allegations of enforced disappearances and abductions targeting government critics and, in some cases, their relatives. In May, UN human rights experts expressed grave concern over the alleged abduction and enforced disappearance of three children and an adult in Conakry, half a year ago, in what appeared to be a targeted reprisal against prominent Guinean artist and human rights advocate Elie Kamano, who lives in exile. The experts stated that ‘the abduction and subsequent enforced disappearance of children as a means of punishing or pressuring a parent or relative is an act of exceptional cruelty.’ These incidents do not appear to be isolated cases, but rather part of a broader pattern of abductions and enforced disappearances involving government critics.

In March, security forces reportedly abducted the mother and sister of former Industry Minister Tibou Kamara, who served under former President Alpha Condé. In June last year, Mohamed Traore — a Guinean lawyer, former President of the Guinean Bar Association, and former member of the National Transitional Council — was reportedly abducted and assaulted. In January this year, Nene Oussou Diallo, a member of the opposition UFDG party’s national executive bureau, was also reportedly abducted. Prominent civil society leader Abdoul Sacko likewise went missing in February and was later found bearing injuries and signs of torture. Oumar Sylla and Mamadou Billo Bah, two leading anti-junta activists, have also remained missing since July 2024.

These developments run counter to the expectations expressed by both the PSC and ECOWAS for inclusive governance, reconciliation and national cohesion in Guinea’s post-transition period, and point instead to a trajectory of democratic backsliding. They are also likely to have had a direct impact on the legislative and local elections by leaving the political field to operate at the expense and to the exclusion of opposition parties and dissenting voices.

Guinea finds itself in this situation is due in no small part to the disregard by the AU and ECOWAS of foundational anti-coup principle of non-eligibility of coup makers for elections. This principle, enshrined in Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), is meant to forestall the misuse of elections by coup makers for legitimizing what is essentially an unconstitutional act, thereby to safeguard the political space necessary for a more credible and democratic electoral process. The fact that both the AU and ECOWAS enabled the disregard of the principle of non-eligibility and legitimized entities that came to power through coup set the scene for the government to deepen its grip on power through repressive means as events in Guinea and developments in Chad attest. The key question that the situation in Guinea raises for the PSC is whether it can respond to the conditions that can precipitate military coup and unconstitutional changes of government proactively or react belatedly when these conditions lead to unconstitutional changes of government. How would the PSC respond if the emerging trend of governing through authoritarian and repressive means lead to the overthrow Guinea’s current government through another coup?

The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to take note of the holding of the legislative and municipal council elections on 31 May 2026. It may also state that it looks forward to the report of the election observation mission that the AU fielded to the country. The PSC may call for corrective measures to be taken, including the restoration of the operation of opposition political parties, in view of the political environment in which these elections were held and the exclusion of much of the political opposition from participation. It may also call for initiatives for institutionalizing political pluralism including through respect for and protection of freedom of association that requires the free organization and operation of opposition political parties and media freedom as critical conditions for preventing unconstitutional changes of government. The PSC may also express concern over reported trends of abductions and enforced disappearances targeting government critics, and stress the need for credible and impartial investigations, while recalling the Government of Guinea’s national, regional, and international human rights obligations. It may reiterate the imperative of consolidating democracy and good governance. Finally, the PSC may task the Panel of the Wise to undertake a mission and report back to the Council within three months.