Tomorrow (27 November), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene its 1247^th session to receive a briefing on continental early warning and security outlook. This briefing is expected to be delivered by the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA); the African Union Mechanism for Police Cooperation (AFRIPOL) and the AU Counter Terrorism Centre (AUCTC) – formerly African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism (ACSRT)).

Following opening remarks from Jean Léon Ngandu Ilunga, Permanent Representative of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for the month of November, Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) Department, is expected to make a statement. It is also expected that Executive Secretary of CISSA, Jackson V. Hamata will make a statement. Representatives of AFRIPOL and AUCTC are also expected to deliver briefings.

This session is meant to present an early warning analysis focusing on the political, security and socio-economic dynamics shaping and informing existing and emerging conflict and security conditions on the continent. However, instead of the Continental Early Warning System established under Article 12 of the PSC Protocol, this session is being organised around the work of CISSA, AUCTC and AFRIPOL. This tends to limit the scope of analysis of threats to the domain of intelligence and crime, hence state-centric hard security issues. The implication of this is that it does not account for risks of conflict eruption or expansion involving political, social, economic and environmental issues. This once again underscores the need for anchoring the CEWS in a dedicated structure in the Department of PAPS consistent with Article 12 of the PSC Protocol. In this context, in the communiqué it adopted when it held its last session on this subject, the PSC underscored the imperative of ‘a robust and fully functional CEWS to effectively pre-empt and mitigate conflicts’ and further called for ‘enhanced inter-agency collaboration, technological advancement, capacity building and increased political engagement and advocacy aimed at fostering a cohesive CEWS.’ It would be of interest for members of the PSC to seek an update from the AU on the follow-up on this decision from the PSC’s 1208^th session.

The last time the PSC convened a substantive session on this subject was on 16 April 2024 during its 1208^th session on the ‘Joint Briefing by CISSA, ACSRT and AFRIPOL on unblocking obstacles to effective Continental Early Warning System (CEWS).’ It should also be recalled that in paragraph 11 of the communiqué, the Council requested the Commission to undertake a number of measures and report to the Council before the end of the year 2024, to unblock obstacles and ensure effective early warning and response.

There is a need for paying increasing attention to intercommunal conflicts that constitute the majority of non-state conflicts in Africa. This necessitates enhancing the development and use of peace and security tools tailored to addressing such non-state conflicts. Of interest in this respect are the need for enhancing the mapping of intercommunal conflicts and their trends through the Continental Early Warning system. It also necessitates the enhanced use of interventions that target the impacts of climate change, enhance peaceful dispute resolution mechanisms between diverse communities and deliver livelihood enhancing and other adaptation support.

During tomorrow’s session CISSA, AUCTC and AFRIPOL will provide updates and briefings on trends relating mostly to terrorism and violent extremism, transnational organised crime such as cybercrimes, human trafficking and such other security threats as arms proliferation. It is worth noting that these conditions are exacerbated by maritime insecurity and piracy affecting. Additionally, there are growing tensions between states, a resurgence of Cold War-like geopolitical rivalries and a significant governance deficit. Political inequities and corruption along with rising cost of living and rampant unemployment are leading to your led mass protests and political instability. This year parts of the continent have also faced health threats from the Marburg and Mpox pandemics. The continent also faces prolonged humanitarian crises, forced displacement and the weaponisation of sexual and gender-based violence. Compounding these issues are tensions over access to and illegal exploitation of natural resources, climate insecurity as a threat multiplier and emerging challenges related to new technologies and cybersecurity.

It is expected that in tomorrow’s session, the AUCTC will give an overview of the terrorism situation in Africa since its last briefing, with a regional focus and factors contributing to this. The proliferation and entrenchment of terrorist and violent extremist groups throughout Africa have turned various regions into hotspots of instability, making the continent one of the most severely affected by terrorism worldwide. As highlighted in a recent Amani Africa analysis on counterterrorism, Africa has seen a significant surge in both the proliferation of conflicts involving terrorist groups and their impact across the continent. The 2024 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) revealed that, for the first time in 13 years, a country other than Afghanistan or Iraq has taken the top spot, with Burkina Faso now ranked first. Mali and Niger also remain heavily affected by terrorism. The Sahel continues to be recognised as the epicentre of terrorism, not only in Africa but globally. According to the ACSRT Report, ‘a decade ago, the Lake Chad Basin was the focal point of the violent extremist threat, comprising 13,670 annual fatalities—67 per cent of the reported fatalities across the continent. North Africa was second, with 3,650 fatalities. Today, annual deaths in the Lake Chad Basin have declined almost fourfold from that high-water mark (though still above 3,600) while North Africa has the least reported fatalities of any of the five active regions.’ In addition, also a decade ago, ‘the Sahel was the region facing the fewest deaths linked to violent extremism. Today it is the region with the most fatalities, a distinction it has held for the past 3 years. It is reported that Somalia has arguably encountered the most persistent and severe violent extremist threat on the continent over the past decade. Currently, the Sahel and Somalia together account for over 80 per cent of all violent extremist-related fatalities on the continent.

It should also be recalled that the PSC during its 1237^th meeting, requested the Commission to report back to Council, by the first quarter of 2025, on the steps taken to establish and operationalise the PSC Sub-Committee on Counter-terrorism. It is also expected that tomorrow’s session will give an update following Council’s previous request to AUCTC to ‘undertake a study on youth indoctrination and the prevention of the risks of radicalisation and violent extremism among young people…’

Another element that is expected to feature in tomorrow’s discussion is an overview of transnational organised crime by AFRIPOL. It covers not only criminal activities involving trafficking of various kinds but also the proliferation of drug trafficking and counterfeit pharmaceutical products but also cybercrimes accompanying the expansion and increasing reliance on new communication technologies including mobile banking. The main interest in receiving these updates for the PSC lies in the interface between these criminal activities and conflicts and their implications in corrupting political activities and undermining state authority.

According to Amani Africa’s, Towards a New Agenda for Peace and Security in Africa: New Security Threats and the Future of the Peace and Security Council, one of the new security threats in Africa arises from the expansion of the use of emerging technologies. It is expected that tomorrow’s session will give an overview of the emerging technologies vis-à-vis peace and security. It should be recalled that the 2024 Africa Cyber Threat Assessment Report by the INTERPOL underscored the alarming rise of cybercrime across Africa, identifying it as one of the continent’s most rapidly emerging threats. The rising use of digital technologies, such as mobile banking, has intensified the region’s susceptibility to cyber threats. The influx of new users the shift of governments and other organisations to digital technologies and the weaknesses of current protective measures against the constantly evolving methods of cyberattacks have resulted in a rise in successful cyberattacks across the African continent. According to Check Point, ‘the number of cyberattacks on enterprises in Africa increased by 20% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year.’ These developments highlight the need for enhancing capabilities for preventing and mitigating cyber-attacks and crimes at the national level.

Beyond the foregoing, it would be of major interest for the PSC to consider in its discussions the impacts of climate change on peace and security. Beyond exacerbating intercommunal violence, such as the conflicts between herding and farming communities in parts of West Africa and the Sahel due to intensified competition for increasingly scarce resources, climate-induced weather events—including droughts and flooding in the Horn of Africa—continue to devastate large segments of the population across the continent.  These climatic challenges not only strain the continent’s humanitarian response capacity but also severely hinder the abilities of states and multilateral bodies to manage existing security issues and conflicts effectively.

The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a Communiqué. The council is likely to express deep concern, over the persistence and escalation of peace and security threats in the Continent, both, man-made and natural. The PSC may reiterate its decision from its 1208^th session on the imperative of ‘a robust and fully functional CEWS to effectively pre-empt and mitigate conflicts’. In this regard, it may call for the need for anchoring the CEWS in a structure dedicated to CEWS. The PSC may reiterate the commitment under the Dar es Salaam Declaration, adopted on 25 May 2024 at the High-Level Colloquium in commemoration of the 20th anniversary of the PSC to enhancing the PSC’s conflict prevention mandate, including by responding swiftly to early warning signs of looming conflicts and crises. The PSC may also reiterate the need for follow up on the request made during the Cairo Retreat held in October 2018 for the establishment of a ‘trigger mechanism and indicators’ to facilitate early action. The PSC may also underscore the need for a dedicated structure for CEWS in PAPS as critical to compliance with the PSC Protocol as envisaged in Article 12 of the PSC Protocol. It may encourage CISSA, AUCTC and AFRIPOL to enhance their coordination with states and initiatives for cross-border measures for tracking and foiling transnational criminal networks and activities.  The PSC might also take note of concern for both emerging and ongoing peace and security threats in Africa. It may emphasise the need for the AU to implement deliberate and targeted strategies addressing the various threats to peace and security on the continent.