Tomorrow (28 October), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will meet to receive an update on the situation in Somalia and the arrangements following the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).

The session is expected to commence with an opening statement from Mohamed Omar Gad, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Egypt to the AU and chair of the Peace and Security Council for October. Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs Peace and Security Department is expected to make a statement and provide updates on the requests from the 1225^th session of the PSC. The PSC may also receive an update from Mohamed El-Amine Souef, the Special Representative of the AU Commission Chairperson for Somalia and Head of ATMIS, and a  statement from the representative of the Inter Governmental Authority on Development.

On 1 August, the PSC at its 1225^th adopted the Concept of Operations (CONOPs) for the new mission expected to replace ATMIS when its current mandate expires by the end of December 2024, to be known as the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). In the communiqué it adopted, the PSC reiterated its request to the AU Commission to undertake consultations, in collaboration with the Troop/Police Contributing Countries (T/PCCS), FGS, and UN and report back to the Council by the end of September 2024, on the implications of Phase 3 drawdown of ATMIS to avoid any security vacuum during the transition to the AUSSOM. The PSC also requested the AU Commission to hold extensive consultations with the UN, EU and all strategic partners and report back on the financing of AUSSOM.

Tomorrow’s session is coming in pursuit of the above requests from PSC’s 1225^th session. It serves as a bridge to the 15 November UN Security Council meeting on the Secretary-General’s report called for under resolution 2748.

As the focus of PSC’s requests from its 1225^th session indicates developments since then, the discussion on AUSSOM has been dominated by two main issues. The first is how to secure predictable and sustainable funding for the mission which has complex financial and logistical arrangements with the UN providing a logistical support package and the EU supporting the mission’s military, civilian and police components. The EU has been calling for other bilateral and multilateral partners to share the financial burden after having supported the mission for the past 17 years. ATMIS has been in major financial shortfall almost from the start of the mission in 2022. In 2023, The AU had to re-channel some $20 million from various unspent budget lines and use the limited funds of its Crisis Reserve Facility of the Peace Fund to cover part of the financing gap in ATMIS troop reimbursement.

To avoid the financial uncertainty that afflicted ATMIS, AU seeks to secure support on resolving the issue of predictable and sustainable funding in the context of finalising preparations for the successor mission, AUSSOM, and UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2719 on the financing of AU led peace support operations using UN assessed contributions. It is to be recalled that in the communique of its 1217^th session, the PSC requested ‘that a dedicated funding mechanism, through UN assessed contributions in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023) …be established to guarantee the financial stability of the mission.’ Highlighting AU’s clear policy position on this, the PSC in the communiqué following its 1225^th meeting held on 1 August underscored ‘the need for a dedicated funding mechanism through UN assessed contributions in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023), in order to avoid the perennial financial challenges faced by previous missions.’

On 15 August, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 2748, extending the ATMIS authorisation until 31 December and requested the Secretary-General to report on the overall mission design and financing options for AUSSOM by 15 November jointly with the AU Commission Chairperson and in consultations with Somalia and international partners. Accordingly, the UN Secretariat and the AU Commission have been working closely to carry out this decision. A Joint UN-AU team visited Somalia from 24 September to 1 October to undertake the necessary consultations with the Somali stakeholders, ATMIS troop-contributing countries, and international partners. This mission covered all the various work streams beyond financing including mission design, command and control and mission support. It is expected that the PSC may receive an update on the findings of the mission.

On 10 October, the Security Council held a private meeting to receive updates on the UN and the AU on their joint work. The Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations, Martha Pobee; the AU High Representative for the Peace Fund, Donald Kaberuka and the Special Representative of the AU Commission Chairperson for Somalia and Head of ATMIS, Mohamed El-Amine Souef briefed Council members.

While there appears to be broad agreement among Security Council members on the need for an ATMIS successor mission to preserve the security gains in Somalia, there is a divergence of views on the financing options. Particularly, the US has been arguing that it is premature to authorise the new mission in Somalia under resolution 2719. In this regard, it proposed a bridging mechanism to address the financing issue for the next two years. The US sent a delegation to Addis Ababa to discuss this matter with the AU officials. The UK, the penholder on Somalia, has been very much supportive of authorising AUSSOM under resolution 2719. However, it appears to have revised its position in view of the US’s strong position on the matter and to support the US-proposed bridging mechanism for at least one year.

On the question of where the bridging budget comes from, the US seems to be trying to persuade the EU. It appears in this respect that this issue was broached during the meeting (with the EU delegation to the AU) of the delegation of the US that visited Addis Ababa. While the EU is adamant that others should step up, it seems that it may be amenable to consider the bridging proposal on condition that there is a guarantee for predictable and sustainable funding after one year. At any rate, the EU position will have implications for the upcoming negotiations in November on the authorisation of the new mission by the Security Council. China and Russia have been supportive of the new mission and its authorisation under resolution 2719 as this is supported by the host country, Somalia and the AU. China particularly tends to highlight the responsibility of traditional partners to continue supporting Somalia and its mission. However, the EU and its members usually push back by arguing that both traditional and non-traditional partners must share the financial burden.

While the UN Secretariat and the AU Commission are expected to provide options as part of their upcoming report in November pursuant to resolution 2748, their preferred option appears to be resolution 2719. The AU seems to have argued at the Security Council private meeting that there is no reference to a bridging mechanism in resolution 2719. In the context of the 18^th joint annual consultative meeting between the PSC and the UNSC, instead of AU’s preference for the use of Resolution 2719, reference is made, within the framework of UNSC Resolution 2748 (2024), ‘to the request for a range of options for financing AUSSOM including but not limited to support by international partners, by the framework established by resolution 2719, other suitable alternatives, or some combination of options.’

The second issue is the prevailing tension between Somalia and Ethiopia which is overshadowing the discussion on AUSSOM. Somalia has made it clear that it will not allow Ethiopian troops to be part of AUSSOM unless Ethiopia retracts the memorandum of understanding it signed with Somaliland on access to the sea and the establishment of a naval base. Turkey tried to mediate between the two countries in a bid to ease tensions and two rounds of talks were held including in Ankara. However, the third round of talks could not take place in the face of the escalating tensions between the two countries.

Following the PSC’s decision to establish the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) during its 1225^th session on 1 August when Egypt’s proposal to be a troop-contributing country was welcomed in the PSC communiqué, Somalia’s intention to replace Ethiopian forces has made the post-ATMIS process a major regional flashpoint. This was apparently in full display at the Security Council private meeting on 10 October where the delegations from the two countries had a tough exchange in front of Peace Security Council members.  Somalia went on a diplomatic offensive to mobilise support for its position. It signed a bilateral defense agreement with Egypt, which pledged to contribute troops to AUSSOM. In its 1 August Communique, the AUPSC welcomed Egypt’s offer to contribute to the elements of AUSSOM. In a tripartite summit in Asmara on 10 October, the Presidents of Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt also announced the establishment of a new alliance.

Ethiopia expressed concerns about these developments and their ramifications for regional peace and security. Ethiopia maintained that it had not been consulted on the development of the CONOPs for the new mission and insisted on the need for the AU to engage TCCs. As a matter of past practice, the AU consults the TCCs before submitting CONOPs to the AUPSC for its consideration and adoption. In this case, it did not do so to avoid unnecessary friction between Somalia and Ethiopia at the meeting. Instead, it seems to have consulted the TCCs bilaterally. Nevertheless, Ethiopia took advantage of a Conference it hosted in Addis Ababa on 17 October 2024 to convene a ministerial meeting of ATMIS TCCs. The meeting discussed the deployment of AUSSOM and stressed the need to consult with TCCs on AUSSOM’s mission design. Somalia and the African Union did not participate in the meeting. In apparent reaction to the Addis Ababa meeting, Somalia started bilaterally engaging with the TCCs at the highest level. President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud visited Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya and Uganda as part of this diplomatic engagement.

Partners appeared to be worried about the prevailing tension between Somalia and Ethiopia. They are trying to signal both countries to tone down the rhetoric. In their bilateral engagement with Mogadishu, they seem to be urging Somalia to reconsider its decision about the future of Ethiopian troops given the significant role they played and continue to play in the fight against Al-Shabaab. On the other hand, they seem to be pressing upon Ethiopia to respect Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This issue did not directly feature during the 18^th joint annual consultative meeting between the PSC and the UNSC. However, the joint communique of the consultative meeting made reference to the reaffirmation of the two council’s support for the unity, territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of Somalia.

While the discussion on the financing options is important, the tension between Ethiopia and Somalia appears to have the potential to upend upcoming discussions on the authorisation of AUSSOM. In light of all these developments, tomorrow’s meeting will be decisive for the future of AUSSOM.

The expected outcome of the session is a communique. It is expected that the PSC may underscore the importance of preserving the peace and security gains achieved through AMISOM and ATMIS and reiterate the commitment of the AU to support the fight against Al Shabaab. The PSC may also underscore the need for predictable, sustainable and flexible financing of AUSSOM and in this respect reiterate its emphasis from its 1225^th session on the need for using Resolution 2719. The PSC may underscore that there should be a clear agreement on predictable and adequate source of financing AUSSOM if resort is not to be made to the use of resolution 2719. The PSC may also reiterate the encouragement it expressed in the communique of its 1225^th session for the Federal Government of Somalia and ATMIS T/PCCs to work together towards ensuring a smooth transition from ATMIS to the new Mission.