Tomorrow (29 April), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold its 1276^th session for receiving updates on the operations of the AU Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

The meeting will commence with the opening remark of Rebecca Amuge Otengo, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Uganda to the AU and stand-in Chair of the PSC for April 2025. Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) will deliver a briefing.

This is the second meeting of the PSC on AUSSOM during the month. As examined in detail in the edition of Insights on the PSC dedicated to that session, the last session was held on 10 April. During that session, the PSC received an update on the state of operation of AUSSOM with a focus on the status of its funding. With only less than 20% of the funding required for the period of January to June 2025 mobilised, the briefing session revealed that AUSSOM faces major funding shortfalls. While AUSSOM operates under conditions that militate against the moral and operational effectiveness of the mission with a much-reduced troop size of about 11,146, the security situation continues to deteriorate with Al Shabaab on the resurgence.

Tomorrow’s meeting comes following the extraordinary Summit of Heads of State and Governments of the Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) to AUSSOM held in Kampala, Uganda on 25 April. The summit was preceded by a preparatory senior officials and ministers meeting on 22-24 April, which concluded their respective meetings by adopting several recommendations for the summit’s consideration. Subsequently, the summit adopted a communiqué endorsing these recommendations, which are now expected to be submitted to the PSC and the UN Security Council.

The TCCs summit reviewed the security situation in Somalia and assessed the performance of the AUSSOM sector by sector to evaluate its operational effectiveness in combating Al-Shabaab. The TCCs stressed the need to increase troop strength by at least 8,000 additional personnel to address the prevailing security challenges. This proposal, endorsed by the summit, seeks ‘to address the prevailing security situation in Somalia so as not to roll back the hard-earned gains made so far and bridge manpower gaps by having more personnel than before the drawdown.’ Highlighting the gravity of the deterioration of the security situation, beyond the additional troop surge for AUSSOM, the summit also adopted the Minister’s conclusion that it is ‘urgent to consider deploying bilateral troops to augment’ AUSSOM. On its part, the Federal Government of Somalia is expected to ‘recruit community/local defence forces and mobile force in order to hold and consolidate the areas that were liberated.’ All of these are clear admissions that the drawdown of troops during the past years has not been replaced with Somali forces as planned, resulting in major gaps that Al Shabaab has been able to exploit to regain territories. In this context, the summit directed the Chiefs of Defence Forces, together with Somalia, to work out a comprehensive plan to deter, degrade and eliminate Al-Shabaab.

The summit also endorsed the proposal for enhancing air assets and capabilities, as well as strengthening Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), considering the fragmented deployment of AUSSOM TCCs and their limited ability to support Somali Security Forces in conducting mobile operations.

During the meeting, the Somali Federal Government provided an update on the preparedness of its security forces and the progress made in force generation and integration. It reported to the summit that over 20,000 troops had been trained over the past two years, with plans to train an additional 5,000 elite special forces in 2025. Since January 2023, the Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF) have assumed control of 23 forward operating bases (FOBs) from the AU mission. Of these, only one position—Biyo Cade—was recaptured by Al-Shabaab, while the remaining 22 FOBs remain under SNAF control.  At the same time, Somalia’s representative admitted that Somalia is ‘challenged with defeating terrorism and stabilising liberated areas’, while dismissing the portrayal of the country as being in political turmoil. Yet in apparent indication of the role of political cohesion in Somalia, the summit underscored the need for the Somalia Federal Government to strengthen its engagement with Federal Member States and traditional leaders to enhance efforts in the fight against Al-Shabaab. It also emphasised the importance of bolstering civil-military coordination, prioritising humanitarian relief, and implementing quick-impact stabilisation projects in recovered areas to consolidate security gains and foster lasting community trust.

In apparent indication that there is a need for close alignment between the implementation of the mandate of AUSSOM and the political and institutional advancements in Somalia, the summit decided to establish TCCs plus Somalia Peer Review Mechanism at the Heads of State and Government Level chaired by Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni supported by the AU Commission. This is envisaged to serve as an oversight, accountability, coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation of AUSSOM and the Somalia Security and Development Plan (SSDP).

The elephant in the room was the funding challenge facing the mission, particularly the outstanding reimbursements for military and police personnel since January—an issue the TCCs warned is significantly undermining morale and operational effectiveness. At the meeting, it was reported that the total urgent cash requirement to cover the financial costs for the period January to June 2025 is estimated at approximately US$96 million. Thus far, the AU has secured only US$16.7 million, while the mission requires roughly US$15 million per month to meet its obligations. Therefore, the TCCs reiterated that securing predictable and sustainable financing remains a strategic priority to maintain AUSSOM’s operational viability and to ensure continued support for Somali security forces in fully assuming security responsibilities. In this context and in the light of the proposal for the additional 8000 troops surge, they emphasised the urgent need for the AU Commission to develop a comprehensive Resource Mobilisation Strategy.

AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf stated in his remarks that the Commission will spare no effort in mobilising financial resources. He emphasised, however, that saving the mission will require a collective effort from member states and international partners. Youssouf underscored that the security and stability of Somalia is vital not only for the Horn of Africa but also for global peace. The summit welcomed the role of traditional and non-traditional partners to support AUSSOM and the Somali federal government. Recently, China and Japan contributed US$ 1 million and US$ 3 million, respectively, in support of AUSSOM. The AU is urging other partners to follow their example. A donors’ conference was anticipated to take place this month in Doha, Qatar, but there is currently no indication that it will proceed as scheduled.

The TCCs also recommended the allocation of additional resources from the AU Peace Fund to help address the mission’s financial shortfalls. This was the case in 2023, when the AU was authorised to use the Peace Fund’s crisis reserve facility to address the funding shortfall faced by the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)—the predecessor of AUSSOM—particularly with regard to troop allowances. However, given that the largest commitment from the Fund has so far been to AUSSOM, this call for use of additional funds from the Fund may face major pushback from various PSC members who express concern that the Peace Fund risks being used as a funding mechanism for AUSSOM while it is meant to cover the peace and security efforts of the AU across the continent.

Most importantly, the TCCs are placing their hopes on the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2719, which outlines a framework for financing AU-led peace support operations, as a means to address the financial challenges facing AUSSOM. However, Chairperson Youssouf acknowledged reluctance in New York regarding its application. This hesitation stems from the position of the United States, which has communicated to both the UN and the AU that it ‘will not support the application of the UNSCR 2719 framework to AUSSOM when the matter comes before the Security Council on May 15.’ The representative of the US informed the summit in Kampala that the US does not believe that ‘Somalia is the best place to trigger the resolution’ and does not ‘support the implementation of a hybrid implementation model to finance AUSSOM.’ It seems that the AU Commission leadership might travel to Washington, D.C., to engage with the US administration and other relevant stakeholders on this matter. Donald Kaberuka, the High Representative of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on Financing, is also reported to be in the US in search of resolution.

In the meantime, the UN has been working with the AU to conduct an independent strategic review of the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) pursuant to Security Council resolution 2767 adopted on 27 December 2024. The review is meant to facilitate the hybrid implementation of resolution 2719 for AUSSOM starting from 1 July 2025. The two organisations appointed Maman Sidikou of Niger and Neil Cole of South Africa to co-lead the review process. They undertook consultations in Mogadishu, Addis Ababa and New York with the Somali government, TCCs and international partners. They submitted their report by the end of March, but the Secretary-General, following consultations with the AU, requested additional time to finalise the review process by 30 April, which the Security Council granted.

The outcome of the UNSOS review is expected to enable the hybrid implementation of resolution 2719 for AUSSOM starting 1 July, utilising existing resources made available through the rightsizing of UNSOS. Cost savings from this process are anticipated to cover up to 75 per cent of AUSSOM’s estimated US$ 190 million budget, with the remaining funds to be jointly mobilised by the AU and the UN as extra-budgetary resources. However, the review reportedly yielded only US$ 61 million in savings—well below the amount needed to meet the 75 per cent threshold for funding through UN-assessed contributions. This shortfall appears to have prompted the request for an extension, allowing the UN and AU to continue exploring options for additional savings (they are looking at an additional US$ 40 million).

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC may condemn and express concern over the threat to the gains made by AU troops and Somali forces posed by the intensification of attacks in recent months by Al Shabaab, with territorial gains particularly in the Middle and Lower Shebelle. It may, in this regard, underscore the need for reinforcing AUSSOM’s troop levels and capabilities. The PSC may, in this respect, welcome the outcomes of the Kampala summit of TCCs. With respect to the decision of the summit for the additional surge of 8000 troops, the PSC may request the AU Commission to develop a plan on the surge and deployment of the additional troops including on whether they will be deployed under AUSSOM or bilateral basis. With respect to funding, the PSC may welcome the promising outcome of the UNSOS review within the framework of Resolution 2767 and the effort to enable the hybrid implementation through cost-saving from rightsizing of UNSOS. It may express deep concern about the huge financial shortfall facing AUSSOM, undermining the effective operation of the mission. It may remind the international community that AUSSOM, as a mission authorised by the UN Security Council, represents a global public good for maintaining international peace and security, which requires the assumption of full responsibility by the UN and the international community by ensuring predictable, sustainable and reliable funding for AUSSOM. In this respect, it may reiterate its previous decision, stressing the importance of ensuring predictable, sustainable and adequate funding for AUSSOM, including through a dedicated funding mechanism through UN-assessed contributions in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023) as the most suitable mechanism. PSC may commend the funding contributions that some members of the international community made and the continued commitment of others. It may, echoing the Kampala summit, request the AU Commission to develop a comprehensive Resource Mobilisation Strategy, including through pursuing the implementation of Resolution 2719.