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		<title>Negotiating War and Rethinking Mediation in Africa in a New Era of Conflicts and Global Disorder</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/negotiating-war-and-rethinking-mediation-in-africa-in-a-new-era-of-conflicts-and-global-disorder/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2026 18:31:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Ideas Indaba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=23819</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>8 July 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/negotiating-war-and-rethinking-mediation-in-africa-in-a-new-era-of-conflicts-and-global-disorder/">Negotiating War and Rethinking Mediation in Africa in a New Era of Conflicts and Global Disorder</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
]]></description>
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<h1><strong>Negotiating War and Rethinking Mediation in Africa in a New Era of Conflicts and Global Disorder </strong></h1>
<p>
</div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 8 July 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-0" data-row="script-row-unique-0" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-0"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-1"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>Abdul Mohammed</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I have sat across from men who command armies, knowing that some of them were responsible for the very violence we were trying to stop.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">There is a particular silence that fills such rooms. It is not the silence of diplomacy. It is the silence of moral tension — the unspoken awareness that peace, if it is to be achieved, may require engaging those whose actions have made peace necessary in the first place.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This is the uncomfortable truth at the heart of modern conflict mediation. It is what Pierre Hazan described as ‘negotiating with the devil.’ In many places such as the Horn of Africa today, it is not a metaphor. It is a daily reality.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Yet the challenge confronting mediators today extends beyond the moral dilemma of negotiating with armed actors. What we are witnessing in various conflict settings in the continent and beyond including across Sudan and the wider Horn is something more profound and more consequential: a growing structural mismatch between mediation as it is currently practiced and the realities it is meant to address.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Mediation in a fragmented geopolitical landscape</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The world in which modern mediation evolved has fundamentally changed.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The assumptions that once underpinned international peacemaking — shared norms, coherent multilateral leadership, and a broadly agreed international order — are steadily eroding. In their place is a far more fragmented and competitive geopolitical landscape, one in which conflicts have become increasingly regionalized, internationalized, and economically embedded.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Nowhere is this more evident than in the Horn of Africa.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The region is no longer experiencing isolated national crises. It is increasingly evolving into an interconnected regional system of conflict shaped by cross-border armed networks, external intervention, fragmented sovereignties, war economies, ideological polarization, and intensifying geopolitical competition along the Red Sea corridor.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Sudan illustrates this reality in its starkest form.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Sudan is no longer simply a country at war. It is a state and society being hollowed out. Its institutions are collapsing, its cities are being destroyed, and millions have been displaced by a conflict whose consequences increasingly transcend Sudan itself. The war has become deeply entangled with broader regional rivalries and international strategic interests.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">And yet, for all the urgency surrounding Sudan, the path to peace partially runs through the very actors who are sustaining the war.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Mediation in a changing conflict landscape </strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/africa-in-a-new-era-of-insecurity-and-instability-the-2024-review-of-the-peace-and-security-council-2/">new era of conflicts and insecurity</a> characterized by shifts in the nature and drivers of conflicts presents further challenge to the current model of mediation. Contemporary conflicts are no longer primarily about seizing state power or achieving decisive military victory.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">They increasingly resemble wars of permanence—open-ended struggles sustained by political fragmentation, economic incentives, and geopolitical rivalry. As the conflicts in the Lake Chad basin and the Sahel show, some of today’s conflicts tend to be transnational, entangled with regional and international criminal and economic networks.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Today’s wars have also become more intractable and easier to wage due to the profound changes in the means of warfare. In many conflict settings from Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel to DRC and Sudan, <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/african-union-floating-adrift-as-a-new-era-of-insecurity-entrenches-in-africa-anarchy-is-loosed-upon-the-world-the-2025-review-of-the-peace-and-security-council-2/">drones have become the weapon of choice</a>, signaling further rapid evolution with the emergence of AI-enabled warfare technologies in a normative context designed for earlier technologies.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Digital technologies have become the dominant information platform that shape not only the conflict environment but also the mediation landscape.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Mediation in the current and emerging context thus needs to adapt to these new and changing conflict dynamics.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The uncomfortable moral realities of ending conflicts</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This remains the central dilemma of mediation. The men who can stop the war are often the same men fighting it.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">It is tempting to believe that peace can be built by excluding such actors — that legitimacy alone can substitute for power. But experience suggests otherwise. Wars do not end because we morally isolate those who wage them. They end when those actors are brought, however reluctantly and imperfectly, into a political process capable of reshaping their incentives and constraining their violence.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This is not a comfortable proposition. Nor should it be.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Every mediation effort forces a version of the same question: Is it better to engage and risk legitimizing violent actors, or to refuse engagement and risk prolonging the war?</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">There are no clean answers. Only consequences.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In much of the Horn of Africa, power is not exercised primarily through formal institutions. It is embedded in networks of patronage, coercion, economic extraction, and armed mobilization. Alex de Waal has described this as a ‘political marketplace,’ where loyalties are transactional, alliances are fluid, and violence itself becomes a tool of political bargaining.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Peace processes that fail to engage these underlying realities often collapse under the weight of their own assumptions. Agreements may appear coherent on paper while remaining disconnected from the actual structures that sustain conflict.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This is one of the defining weaknesses of much contemporary mediation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Too often, mediation has shifted from shaping political outcomes to managing diplomatic processes. Meetings proliferate. Statements multiply. Tracks expand. Yet leverage weakens and coherence declines.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The result is the paradox increasingly visible across many conflicts today: more mediation, but less peace.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Horn of Africa vividly illustrates this crisis.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Different actors pursue different initiatives through overlapping and sometimes competing tracks. Regional organizations, international institutions, bilateral powers, and external geopolitical actors often engage simultaneously without strategic alignment.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The multiplication of forums has not necessarily produced greater effectiveness. In some cases, it has deepened fragmentation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This is not merely an operational problem. It reflects a deeper transformation in the international system itself.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Mediators must negotiate a fiercely contested diplomatic environment</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The era in which mediation could rely on relatively coherent multilateral consensus is fading. What is emerging instead is a far more contested diplomatic environment shaped by geopolitical rivalry, transactional partnerships, declining trust in institutions, and the growing influence of middle and regional powers.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">For mediators, this creates a new level of complexity. It is no longer enough to navigate the conflict itself. One must also navigate the competing interests of those seeking to shape the conflict’s outcome.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This emerging reality is most evident in the Red Sea corridor. Gulf powers, global powers, regional actors, and non-state networks increasingly intersect across the Horn in ways that blur the line between domestic conflict and wider geopolitical competition. Proximity to the Middle East has transformed the Horn into part of a wider and deeply interconnected security arena.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Mediation frameworks, however, have often failed to evolve accordingly.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Many still operate according to assumptions rooted in an earlier era — one in which conflicts were more localized, mediation tracks more centralized, and multilateral authority more coherent. But today’s wars, economically embedded and digitally amplified, do not lend themselves to this conventional approach.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This demands a fundamental rethinking of mediation itself.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The challenge is not simply to improve mediation processes. It is to redefine mediation politically, strategically, and institutionally for an entirely different era of conflict.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Three deficits increasingly define contemporary mediation efforts.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Key challenges facing modern mediation</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">First, there is a deficit of political strategy.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Mediation has too often become procedural rather than transformational. Process has become a substitute for strategy. Yet mediation that is disconnected from a clear political understanding of power, incentives, and end states risks becoming performative rather than consequential.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Second, there is a deficit of coherence.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Multiple actors engage without alignment, weakening leverage and creating opportunities for conflict actors to exploit divisions among mediators themselves. Fragmented diplomacy frequently mirrors the fragmentation of the conflicts it seeks to resolve.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Third, there is a deficit of legitimacy.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Formal peace processes often remain disconnected from societal realities and civilian constituencies most affected by war. Inclusion is frequently symbolic rather than meaningful, while local actors capable of sustaining peace remain marginalized.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">These deficits are particularly dangerous in contexts such as Sudan, where the collapse of state structures risks generating prolonged fragmentation with regional consequences extending far beyond national borders.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>The ongoing tensions between peace and justice</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">At the same time, mediation confronts another enduring tension: the relationship between peace and justice.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Victims of conflict do not speak in abstractions about stabilization. They speak about accountability, dignity, recognition, and historical grievance. They demand not only the cessation of violence but also justice for the violence already committed.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Yet here too mediation encounters difficult realities.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Actors who fear immediate accountability are often unwilling to negotiate. Insisting on maximalist justice demands at the outset may, in some circumstances, foreclose opportunities to stop the violence itself.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This does not mean justice should be abandoned. It means justice must be sequenced carefully within broader political transitions.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Mahmood Mamdani has long argued that violence in Africa is often rooted not merely in individual criminality but in deeper political structures and historical systems of exclusion. Sustainable peace therefore requires more than prosecutions alone. It requires transforming the conditions that continuously reproduce violent conflict.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In practical terms, this means prioritizing the cessation of violence while preserving pathways toward accountability, institutional reform, reconciliation, and political transformation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">It is not a perfect approach. But in the midst of war, perfection is rarely available.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">And this is precisely where African agency becomes indispensable.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">It is such normative and socio-political imperatives that informed and animate the African Union Transitional Justice Policy. It is premised on both the necessity of justice and accountability and the recognition that wars are extraordinary events that are not amenable to the application of systems of justice that are designed for normal and peace times.</p>
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</div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-1" data-row="script-row-unique-1" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-1"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-2"><div class="row limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column text-small" ><p><em>Abdul Mohammed, Senior Fellow of Amani Africa, is a former United Nations Senior Political Advisor and head of the Sudan Mediation office and a former senior official of the AU HIP and senior advisor to IGAD</em></p>
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</div><p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/negotiating-war-and-rethinking-mediation-in-africa-in-a-new-era-of-conflicts-and-global-disorder/">Negotiating War and Rethinking Mediation in Africa in a New Era of Conflicts and Global Disorder</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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		<title>The US plan to unplug the UN Support Office in Somalia, the last straw that may break the African Union’s peace operation</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/the-us-plan-to-unplug-the-un-support-office-in-somalia-the-last-straw-that-may-break-the-african-union-s-peace-operation/</link>
					<comments>https://amaniafrica-et.org/the-us-plan-to-unplug-the-un-support-office-in-somalia-the-last-straw-that-may-break-the-african-union-s-peace-operation/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2026 12:46:17 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Ideas Indaba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=23815</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>5 July 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/the-us-plan-to-unplug-the-un-support-office-in-somalia-the-last-straw-that-may-break-the-african-union-s-peace-operation/">The US plan to unplug the UN Support Office in Somalia, the last straw that may break the African Union’s peace operation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
]]></description>
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<h1>The US plan to unplug the UN Support Office in Somalia, the last straw that may break the African Union’s peace operation</h1>
<p>
</div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 5 July 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-3" data-row="script-row-unique-3" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-3"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-4"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">On 1 July, the United States (US) Mission to the African Union (AU) (USAU) informed the AU that when the renewal of the mandate of the African Union (AU) Support and Stabilisation Mission (AUSSOM) comes up in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in December 2026, the US would not support the renewal of the mandate ‘if it includes UNSOS (UN Support Office in Somalia) or any UN logistical and operational support.’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This announcement represents a death knell for a mission that already faces an existential crisis. Yet, depending on how the end of AUSSOM is managed and the level of greater responsibility that Somali leaders are willing to assume, safeguarding the fundamentals of the security gains and avoiding disorganised exit are not impossible.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">AUSSOM is the latest iteration of AU’s long-running and largest peace support operations, which came into existence nearly two decades ago in March 2007. Operating in an environment where the UN was unable and unwilling to deploy, the mission, as the primary security entity for the maintenance of international peace and security in Somalia, received UN logistics support from UN assessed contributions since 2009, delivered through the UN Support Office for AMISOM (UNSOA) until 2015 and UNOAS successor, UNSOS, from November 2015 to date.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">UNSOS provides a <a href="https://unsos.unmissions.org/en/support-to-aussom">wide range of supplies</a> critical to the functioning of the mission, ranging from life support and operational services, fuel and maintenance, movement and transportation support to reimbursement of contingent self-sustainment costs, all of which are critical to the survival of the mission. Arguably, in the face of the huge financial deficit facing AUSSOM, it is not clear how the mission can survive without these critical supplies from UNSOS.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em>An operation that registered substantial gains, with immeasurable price, that Somalia struggles to consolidate  </em></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">AUSSOM and its predecessor missions made substantial contributions in Somalia. Most importantly, they paved the way for the re-establishment of state institutions and authority across a large swath of territory. This was realised by wresting control of such territories from the armed militant terrorist group, Al Shabaab, with several thousand women and men that served under the AU flag for advancing international peace and security paying an immeasurable price with their lives and limbs.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">After 19 years, Somalia’s failure to mobilise and deploy security forces capable of consolidating the territorial gains secured by the AU mission at the required scale and pace has resulted in a mission creep, as the AU’s operation had to cover for the responsibilities of both Somalia and the international community. As pointed out in an earlier <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/will-the-possible-end-of-the-au-mission-in-somalia-open-new-opportunities-for-peace/">analysis</a>, the result is that the military approach has come to take primacy and the prolonged presence of the AU peace operation is used to perpetually shortchange the required investment in a political strategy and the effective rebuilding of Somali security forces.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">With the mission rendered incapable of pursuing a realistic mission exit plan that can be implemented within agreed timelines, it found itself in the unenviable position of continuing its operations against Al Shabaab not only in the absence of a workable political strategy but also with ever-shrinking sources of funding.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The announcement by the US has come at a time when financial, operational and political sustenance of the mission has increasingly become a major area of policy concern on the part of the AU, as revealed in <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/April-Monthly-Digest-2026.pdf">the analysis of the 1342<sup>nd</sup></a> session of the Peace and Security Council (PSC).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Financially, despite the conservative $166.5 million budget of the mission for the June 2025 to July 2026 period, only a fraction of the budget was raised, even after various efforts. To make matters worse, AUSSOM inherited substantial debt from its predecessor, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Outstanding arrears owed to TCCs from 2022 to 2024 amount to <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/update-briefing-on-the-status-and-operations-of-the-au-support-and-stabilisation-mission-in-somalia/">$93.9 million</a>. The mission had to find ways of accommodating the $130 million reduction from the approved UNSOS budget of $520 million for the financial year June 2025 to July 2026.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Not surprisingly, this was one of several areas of major concern that the PSC expressed during its most recent meeting relating to AUSSOM during its 1342<sup>nd</sup> session. Expressing <strong>deep concern </strong>over the lack of predictable, adequate, and sustainable financing for AUSSOM, the PSC recommended the use of part of the interest accrued from the AU Peace Fund investment, including the Crisis Reserve Facility (CRF), to ‘substantially’ contribute to addressing funding gaps in the mission’s 2025 and 2026 budgets.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Following the communication from the US and the resultant near unviability of AUSSOM without UNSOS, any amount of such manoeuvre on the part of the AU is unlikely to save the mission beyond December 2026.</p>
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</div><div class="uncode-single-media  text-left"><div class="single-wrapper" style="max-width: 100%;"><div class="tmb tmb-light  tmb-media-first tmb-media-last tmb-content-overlay tmb-no-bg"><div class="t-inside"><div class="t-entry-visual"><div class="t-entry-visual-tc"><div class="uncode-single-media-wrapper"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="wp-image-23790" src="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2-4.png" width="829" height="469" alt="" srcset="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2-4.png 829w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2-4-300x170.png 300w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2-4-768x434.png 768w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2-4-350x198.png 350w" sizes="(max-width: 829px) 100vw, 829px" /></div>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>1342nd Meeting of the PSC on ‘The Report of the Joint AU-FGS-UN Progress against Benchmarks and AUSSOM’s Configuration Plan,’ 28 April 2026. (Source: X @AUC_ PAPS)</figcaption></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Politically and strategically, the slow pace of mobilisation and deployment of Somali security forces has been the centre of major concern. When the summit of troop-contributing countries (TCCs) was held in Kampala in April 2025, this led the summit to propose the TCCs plus Somalia Peer Review Mechanism as an oversight, accountability, coordination, monitoring and evaluation of AUSSOM and the Somalia Security and Development Plan. However, this proposal was left out of the final outcome of the summit due to opposition from Somalia.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This persisting lack of the requisite progress in organizing, building and deploying security capability for taking over responsibility led the PSC at its 1342<sup>nd</sup> session to once again urge the government ‘to enhance force generation, regeneration and capacity building, including the recruitment of Community/ Local Defence Forces (LDFs), and mobile forces to hold areas, and undertake operations as part of the clear, hold and build strategy, so as to preserve the gains made and as an overarching factor to inform the exit strategy.’ Recognising the inadequacies on the part of Somalia in holding areas liberated from Al Shabaab, the PSC additionally urged the Government ‘to support effective stabilisation programs in the areas liberated from Al Shabaab…as well as the establishment of effective state institutions.’ <a name="_Toc230902640"></a></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">These issues correspond with the explanations the US gave for its position that the USAU communicated to the AU in its letter of 1 July 2026. The US stated that ‘[d]espite more than a decade of international support, Somalia has been unable to sustain progress against al-Shabaab, take ownership of its security functions, or undertake serious security sector reform.’ It went on to state that ‘[i]nternal rivalries and political infighting continue to undermine the fight against al-Shabaab and ISIS, and the benefits of international support will remain limited until Somalia&#8217;s leaders unite to address the country&#8217;s security and governance challenges.’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><em>The options for AUSSOM policy makers </em></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">It is anticipated that the letter from the US could trigger the convening of an urgent meeting of the TCCs and the PSC. On 3 July, AU’s Peace Support Operations Division (PSOD) convened ‘<a href="https://x.com/AUC_PAPS/status/2073140631967297822">an information briefing</a>’ for the Defence Attachés of the TCCs and Police Contributing Countries (PCCs) of AUSSOM.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Ironically, the US letter may end up being the catalyst for the implementation of the call that the PSC made including during its 1342<sup>nd</sup> session ‘for the Commission to urgently convene a meeting of the AUSSOM TCCs/PCCs at the level of Chiefs of Defence Forces, to discuss on the proposed three options, including their implications on the sustainability of AUSSOM and its operations; and to submit detailed report with their recommendations for Council’s consideration.’ However, the new dynamics that the US letter introduced are sure to necessitate the updating of the options prepared in 2025.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In terms of the next course of actions, the first of the steps that could be taken is to develop a contingency plan for an orderly exit of AUSSOM. The remaining six months should provide the window that the AU could use for revising and implementing the exit plan of the mission.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">To avoid major reversal of the gains secured by AU operations, the AU along with the UN and TCCs/PCCs as well as host country would need to develop a plan for a short transitional arrangement of providing security support beyond December 2026. Parallel to that, consideration should be given to enable Somalia in how to leverage the growing bilateral support from countries such as Turkey that Somalia has come to rely on more heavily (see <a href="https://adf-magazine.com/2025/05/turkey-deploys-more-forces-to-help-in-al-shabaab-fight/">here</a> and <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-deploys-f-16-jets-somalia">here</a>) for filling in some of the vacuum that the departure of AUSSOM may induce. This is also likely to include mobilisation of support for the sustenance and possible expansion by some of the TCCs of AUSSOM of their bilateral deployment.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">However, such a shift from a multilateral to a bilateral arrangement would not resolve the fundamental issues that inhibited the translation of the security gains that the AUSSOM and its predecessor missions secured into strategic success in Somalia.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Thus, beyond managing the consequences of the end of UNSOS, the notice that the US gave could be used as an opportunity for the much-needed shift of the primary focus of AU support to be on <strong>the primacy of politics</strong> in the search for resolving the crisis in Somalia. This would mean adopting as part of the existing plan a strategy for transitioning AUSSOM into a political mission in the same way the AU transitioned its mission in Mali into the AU Mission in Mali and the Sahel (MISAHL).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">While the US plan to unplug UNSOS would cripple AUSSOM and induce a short-term policy crisis, paradoxically, it may also end up being the catalyst for ending the complacency and opening up space for putting in place a workable peace plan that both commands the firm support and commitment of various Somali political and social forces and ensures the sustained and well-paced mobilisation and deployment of national security forces for taking over security responsibility. Indeed, such a shift, along with the prioritisation of political strategy, may induce Somalia’s political and social forces to extend far greater support for and invest more resolutely in prioritising national reconciliation and inclusive political settlement than advancing partisan self-interest, thereby perpetually outsourcing national responsibility.</p>
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		<title>Africa Must Rise Against the Normalization of War</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/africa-must-rise-against-the-normalization-of-war/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2026 15:53:35 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Ideas Indaba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=23779</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>2 July 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/africa-must-rise-against-the-normalization-of-war/">Africa Must Rise Against the Normalization of War</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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<h1>Africa Must Rise Against the Normalization of War</h1>
<p>
</div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 2 July 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-5" data-row="script-row-unique-5" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-5"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-6"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>By Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>Convener and Chairperson, Beijing+30 African Women&#8217;s Movement</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Africa is in danger of becoming accustomed to war.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">What would have shocked the conscience of the continent a generation ago is increasingly being treated as routine. Daily reports of bombed villages, displaced populations, massacred civilians, sexual violence, starvation, collapsing states, and endless humanitarian crises no longer generate the urgency they deserve.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The tragedy is not only that war is spreading, and Africa is in <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Africa-in-a-New-Era-of-Insecurity-and-Instability-The-2024-Review-of-the-Peace-and-Security-Council.pdf">a new era of conflict and insecurity</a>. The greater tragedy is that war is becoming normalized.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">From Sudan to the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, from the Sahel to parts of the Horn of Africa, violence is increasingly becoming a defining feature of political life itself. Armed conflict is no longer appearing as an exception to politics; in too many places it is becoming a substitute for politics.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Africa today confronts a profound and dangerous reality: war is increasingly becoming systemic, self-sustaining, and in some places permanent.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Many of the continent’s contemporary conflicts are also increasingly shaped by external interference and geopolitical competition. Local conflicts are becoming entangled with regional and international rivalries, giving rise to proxy wars that often outlive their original causes. External sponsorship, competition for strategic influence, and access to resources can prolong violence, complicate peace efforts, and transform local conflicts into seemingly endless wars. In too many places, Africa is paying the human cost of struggles that extend far beyond its borders.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The return of war is not simply a security challenge. It is an existential challenge to Africa’s future. It threatens every major aspiration Africans have articulated for themselves—from Agenda 2063 and regional integration to democratic governance, economic transformation, poverty reduction, social justice, and women’s empowerment.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Across the continent, conflicts are becoming more fragmented, more regionalized, and more resistant to traditional approaches to peacemaking.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In too many places, war has become an economic system, a method of governance, a pathway to political power, and a means of negotiating access to state resources. For some actors, peace has become a threat while war has become an opportunity.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Even more troubling is the changing status of civilians. In many contemporary conflicts, civilians are no longer unfortunate victims caught between warring parties. They are increasingly becoming deliberate targets (see <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/Prioritising-Protection-of-Civilians-in-Peace-and-Security-Diplomacy-in-Sudan-Challenges-and-Options.pdf">here</a>).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">No group bears the burden of Africa’s wars more heavily than women and children.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Women carry responsibilities that extend far beyond their own survival. They become caregivers, providers, protectors, and custodians of communities under conditions of extraordinary hardship. They face displacement, loss of livelihoods, hunger, sexual violence, forced migration, and the collapse of essential social services. Yet, they remain significantly underrepresented in the political decisions that determine war and peace.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Children are perhaps the greatest victims of all. Millions are growing up amid violence, displacement, interrupted education, hunger, and profound psychological trauma. Many have never known a society at peace.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The destruction of civilian life is no longer merely collateral damage. It is increasingly part of the logic of war itself.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Entire societies are being traumatized. Communities that have lived together for generations are being torn apart. Reconciliation becomes more difficult. State-building becomes more fragile. Democratic transitions become more elusive. Development becomes impossible.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Africa’s peace institutions are under immense strain. Existing approaches are not matching the scale of the challenge. Conflict prevention remains weak, mediation efforts are fragmented, and civilian protection remains inadequate.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Most importantly, leadership for peace is becoming increasingly scarce, while leadership for war often appears more visible.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">It is against this backdrop that the Beijing+30 African Women’s Movement is advancing the Women for Peace in Africa Initiative.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Peace is too precious to be left to governments and formal institutions alone. Sustainable peace requires the active participation of citizens, women’s organizations, youth movements, faith communities, intellectuals, traditional leaders, humanitarian actors, and civil society. The defense of peace must become a shared societal responsibility.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The initiative recognizes that sustainable peace requires organized civic leadership capable of defending civilians, promoting accountability, supporting mediation efforts, strengthening social cohesion, and generating public pressure for political solutions.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Africa has reached a moment when silence is no longer an option. The scale of suffering demands action. The erosion of peace demands leadership. The future of the continent demands a broad-based civic movement committed to ensuring that war does not become a permanent feature of African political life.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The defense of peace must once again become a continental cause.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Africa must rise against the normalization of war.</p>
<p>
</div><div class="uncode_text_column text-small" ><p><em>This article previously featured in The Sunday Times. Geraldine Joslyn Fraser-Moleketi, the Convenor of the Beijing +30 Women’s Movement, is the Chairman of the Thabo Mbeki Board of Trustees.</em></p>
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		<title>Celebrating an Enduring Voice for Africa in a Time of Uncertainty</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/celebrating-an-enduring-voice-for-africa-in-a-timeof-uncertainty/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2026 21:25:43 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Ideas Indaba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=23729</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>18 June 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/celebrating-an-enduring-voice-for-africa-in-a-timeof-uncertainty/">Celebrating an Enduring Voice for Africa in a Time of Uncertainty</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wpb-content-wrapper"><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-7"><div class="row unequal col-half-gutter no-top-padding single-bottom-padding one-h-padding full-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light font-555555"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell" ><div class="uncont no-block-padding col-custom-width" style=" max-width:996px;" ><div class="empty-space empty-single" ><span class="empty-space-inner"></span></div>
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<h1>Celebrating an Enduring Voice for Africa in a Time of Uncertainty</h1>
<p>
</div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 18 June 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-7" data-row="script-row-unique-7" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-7"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-8"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>Abdul Mohammed</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">At a time when Africa confronts multiple and overlapping crises—devastating wars, democratic uncertainty, economic pressures, geopolitical competition, and an increasingly fragmented international order—it is fitting to pause and celebrate one of the continent’s most consequential leaders and thinkers.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The 84<sup>th</sup> birthday of President Thabo Mbeki on 18 June offers a valuable opportunity to reflect on the kind of leadership this time demands and how African can exercise agency in order both to limit the adverse impacts of these challenges but also create conditions for addressing them. For he is not only a former President of South Africa but also one of the principal architects of contemporary Pan-Africanism. For more than four decades, he has helped shape continental debates on governance, development, peace, integration, and Africa’s place in the world.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">For many Africans of my generation, Thabo Mbeki represents a rare combination of statesman, intellectual, strategist, and Pan-African visionary. He belongs to a generation of leaders who understood that political liberation was only the beginning of Africa’s journey. The greater challenge was transforming independence into development, political sovereignty into agency, and aspiration into institutions.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">His presidency coincided with one of the most transformative periods in Africa’s contemporary history. The establishment of the African Union, the advancement of NEPAD, the creation of the African Peer Review Mechanism, anchored on the articulation of the African Renaissance in advancing contemporary Pan-Africanism all bore his intellectual imprint. He challenged Africans to reject narratives of dependency and victimhood and instead embrace responsibility, dignity, and self-confidence.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Compared to his peers, what makes him standout is that Mbeki consistently treated ideas as instruments of transformation. He invested in thought as much as action. Whether through speeches, essays, ANC Today, or countless public engagements, he sought to elevate political discourse and encourage Africans to think strategically about their future.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This unique trait of Mbeki comes to full view on the occasion of the launch of an important and timely book, The Two Sudans by Alex de Waal. The book documents one of the most complex and far-reaching mediation efforts undertaken by the African Union under President Mbeki’s leadership as Chair of the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel for Sudan and South Sudan. It offers valuable insight into the challenges of peacemaking in deeply divided societies and stands as a testament to Mbeki’s patient, principled, and determined pursuit of African-led solutions to conflicts on the continent.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">What has always distinguished Mbeki is his unwavering commitment to African solutions to problems in Africa. His mediation work presents a compelling testament to this commitment.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I had the privilege and honor of working closely with President Mbeki as Chief of Staff of the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel for Sudan and South Sudan. For nearly a decade, I witnessed his leadership at close quarters. Those years remain among the most rewarding, intellectually stimulating, and professionally fulfilling years.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Working with him was an education in leadership.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">He approached mediation with extraordinary seriousness. Every document was read. Every argument was examined. Every historical detail mattered. He understood that sustainable peace requires more than ceasefires and agreements. It requires understanding history, identity, institutions, grievances, and aspirations.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The book, The Two Sudans, provides valuable insight into that period. It captures the depth of Mbeki’s engagement and his determination to pursue a genuinely African-led mediation process. His work demonstrated that peacebuilding requires patience, rigor, intellectual honesty, and political courage.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">What stands out most was his discipline and strategic focus. He never sought publicity. He sought solutions. He believed that mediation was a responsibility to the people affected by conflict rather than a platform for diplomatic recognition.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">While differed in style, but he shares important characteristics with Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Both took ideas seriously. Both understood the importance of institution-building. Both were committed to transforming Africa’s position in the world. Both believed that Pan-Africanism required practical expression through policy, development, integration, peacebuilding, and strategic engagement with global realities.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Both were deeply intellectual yet intensely practical. Neither was interested in slogans or superficial politics. They believed that ideas must translate into policy, institutions, and measurable outcomes. They approached governance as a serious undertaking requiring discipline, preparation, and strategic clarity. Above all, they shared a conviction that Africa must become an active architect of its own destiny rather than a passive subject of global power politics. They both understood that Africa’s destiny requires the transformation of the socio-economic realities of the mass of the people.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Their generation understood that Pan-Africanism was not simply an aspiration; it was a practical project of state-building, regional integration, peace-making, and economic transformation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">They represented a practical Pan-Africanism—one rooted not in rhetoric but in action and deep commitment to the needs and interests of the mass of the people.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Today, that tradition of intellectually grounded and strategically engaged leadership is increasingly rare. The continent faces immense challenges that require strategic thinking, historical perspective, and moral courage. The wars in Sudan, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Sahel, and elsewhere have exposed weaknesses in both continental and international systems. At the same time, intensifying competition among global powers is reshaping Africa’s strategic environment.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">On these issues, Mbeki’s voice remains indispensable.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Long before discussions of multipolarity became fashionable, he argued that Africa must strengthen its own institutions and strategic capabilities in order to navigate shifts in the global balance of power. His reflections on global governance, multilateral reform, development, and sovereignty remain remarkably relevant today.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">His recent interventions against xenophobia and Afrophobia in South Africa are equally important. At a moment when economic hardship and social tensions risk fueling hostility toward migrants, Mbeki has reminded South Africans that the source of the social and economic ills afflicting South Africans are not people from other parts of the continent, who stood with them during the anti-apartheid struggle. He has consistently argued that attacks on fellow Africans betray the very values upon which democratic South Africa was built.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">That moral consistency has been one of the defining features of his public life.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">His continuing engagement is also reflected in recent collections of his writings and letters, including those drawn from ANC Today. These writings reveal a leader still deeply concerned about governance, political ethics, democratic accountability, and the future of the liberation movement that shaped modern South Africa.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">History will continue to debate aspects of his presidency, as it should. That is inevitable for any consequential leader. Yet no serious assessment of modern Africa can ignore the scale of his contribution.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">At a time when leadership for peace appears increasingly scarce and leadership for conflict often dominates headlines, Mbeki’s example offers an important reminder. He has consistently demonstrated that political leadership must be anchored in principle, patience, and long-term vision. Throughout his public life, he has defended dialogue over confrontation, institutions over personalities, and strategic thinking over political expediency. Africa’s current crises underscore the continued relevance of these values.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">For those of us fortunate enough to have worked alongside him, President Mbeki’s legacy is not confined to history books or institutional achievements. It lives on in the lessons he imparted, the standards he set, and the enduring belief that Africa can and must shape its own future.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">At eighty-four, many in Africa are delighted to have him as one of the continent’s most important voices—a statesman whose influence extends beyond office, beyond country, and beyond generation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As we wish you a happy 84<sup>th</sup> birthday, President Thabo Mbeki, may your continued wisdom, intellectual courage, and unwavering commitment to Africa continue to inspire those who believe that another Africa remains possible.</p>
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		<title>From Optimism to AI Realism: The African Union Peace and Security Council on AI and Peace and Security</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/from-optimism-to-ai-realism-the-african-union-peace-and-security-council-on-ai-and-peace-and-security/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 15:15:24 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Ideas Indaba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=23707</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>10 June 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/from-optimism-to-ai-realism-the-african-union-peace-and-security-council-on-ai-and-peace-and-security/">From Optimism to AI Realism: The African Union Peace and Security Council on AI and Peace and Security</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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<h1>From Optimism to AI Realism: The African Union Peace and Security Council on AI and Peace and Security</h1>
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</div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 10 June 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-9" data-row="script-row-unique-9" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-9"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-10"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>Solomon Ayele Dersso, PhD, Founding Director, Amani Africa</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>Previne Habu, Researcher, Amani Africa</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its application across various fields are unfolding at a speed that has outpaced the development of appropriate guardrails both at national and multilateral levels. In Africa, the emergence of AI was greeted with enthusiasm and its adoption is accelerating across Africa. Despite the transformative impact of AI on how societies function across various fields and its potential to help overcome some of the structural constraints for development, the experience with AI, including in parts of the world at the forefront of its development and adoption, has also revealed major downsides.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Both the pace of advancement of AI and the various risks and issues identified with its adoption in various areas of social, economic, security and governance fields have prompted policy debates, including in multilateral forums.  As a multilateral platform that is known for its norm entrepreneurship, the African Union (AU), particularly its Peace and Security Council (PSC), took an interest in AI, with the PSC focusing on its implications for governance and peace and security.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Initially, reflecting the prevailing early enthusiastic discourse on digital technology and AI, PSC’s take on the subject was characterised by what experts call techno-optimism. Thus, its first meeting on AI during the <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1214.comm_en.pdf">1214<sup>th</sup></a> session came across as an AI optimist. This was reflected in its enthusiastic expression of its expectation of the contribution of AI ‘towards the promotion of peace, security, stability, democracy and development in Africa, as well as in accelerating global development and the achievement of the aspirations of AU Agenda 2063 and the UN Agenda 2030 on Sustainable Development Goals.’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Certainly, the potential of AI to make such a contribution is not totally misplaced. Reports show that AI is projected to contribute between $2.9 trillion and $4.8 trillion to Africa’s economy by 2030, creating substantial opportunities for the continent’s predominantly youthful population. From agriculture and healthcare to education and finance, key sectors are poised for profound transformation as AI-driven innovations reshape production, service delivery, and governance systems.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Yet, the reality is also that, as new technology that is disruptive and in the process of continuous refinement, not only is AI not free from risks, but also its impact on various areas of the lives of societies and individuals is not without downsides. The prevailing optimism surrounding its transformative potential, particularly in Africa, warrants careful scrutiny. This is particularly important given the lack of consideration of the realities of parts of the world, such as Africa, in the design and development of AI systems, the algorithmic bias associated with most AI systems, the regulatory gaps, and the safety and human rights compliance risks.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">For Africa, there are other factors that complicate the adoption of AI, including regional disparities and structural constraints such as technical gaps, infrastructural limitations, including pressure on the use of electricity (on a continent with nearly half of its people without access to electricity and an uneven data governance regime. Relatedly, the policy engagement of the AU and its member states including through the PSC need to pay particular attention to key issues, including data protection, bridging the digital divide, strengthening capacities to adapt and develop AI solutions suited to African realities, closing regulatory and technical gaps, safeguarding vulnerable groups, and ensuring the responsible use and human control in the use of AI in the military domain. Also, of significance is ensuring coherence and preventing emerging risks of policy fragmentation across the AU system.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The latest ministerial session of the PSC, its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1339.comm_en.pdf">1339<sup>th</sup> meeting</a>, held on 16 April 2026, on the theme ‘Artificial Intelligence: Governance, Peace and Security,’ marked the start of the PSC’s shift from optimism to realism. While the session built on previous PSC’s engagement of the nexus between AI, governance, peace and security in Africa, particularly its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1214.comm_en.pdf">1214<sup>th</sup> Meeting</a> held on 13 June 2024 and its <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1267.comm_en.pdf">1267<sup>th</sup> meeting</a> held on 20 March 2025, it approached the subject with a sense of realism while still cognisant of its enormous potential. Accordingly, the PSC emphasised the imperative for Africa to shape, develop, and control its own AI technologies in order to guarantee the continent’s sovereignty across the entire AI ecosystem. Recognising the strategic importance of digital independence, the PSC underscored the need to safeguard Africa’s digital and data sovereignty. It emphasised the importance of developing AI systems in African languages as a means of promoting inclusivity, preserving cultural heritage, and strengthening social cohesion.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In terms of governance of AI, the PSC emphasised that the development and deployment of AI technologies must be guided by the principles of transparency, accountability, inclusivity, ethical governance, benefit- sharing, social cohesion, and full respect for international law. It further advocated for the progressive development of context-specific and adaptable AI governance and regulatory frameworks or charters aligned with international humanitarian law and the principle of meaningful human control. Having regard to Africa’s place in the global AI systems, the Council stressed the need to strengthen Africa’s participation in global norm-setting processes through coordinated continental positions and strategic engagement within multilateral platforms.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>AUPSC 1339th Meeting on 'Artificial Intelligence: Governance, Peace and Security in Africa,' 16 April 2026. (Source X @AUC_PAPS)</figcaption></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The 1339<sup>th</sup> session, per the <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/1339.comm_en.pdf">communiqué</a>, reflected a discussion that was strategically ambitious and geopolitically informed with regard to Africa’s stance in the evolving global AI landscape. This clearly sets a useful foundation for shaping a more productive engagement that enables the harnessing of the benefits of AI in advancing Africa’s priorities while also seeking to put in place arrangements for limiting, if not avoiding, the perils and downsides of this disruptive yet transformative technology.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As the PSC and the AU take the policy engagement forward, some of the developments that merit closer scrutiny include the rapid evolution of AI-enabled warfare capabilities and the emergence of drones as weapons of choice in several conflict settings across Africa. As such, first, greater consideration could be given to the risks associated with lethal autonomous weapons systems, AI-driven and autonomous drone warfare, and algorithmic targeting.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Second, it will be imperative for the AU and the PSC to examine the huge environmental implications of expanding AI infrastructure. The growing energy requirements of data centres and the increasing demand for water resources associated with AI development raise important sustainability concerns, particularly in a continent already facing significant climate vulnerabilities and energy deficits.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Third, the Council could consider the potential socio-economic consequences of AI-driven automation. Given Africa’s large youth population, persistent unemployment challenges, and fragile labour markets, the implications of automation for employment, livelihoods, and social stability deserve greater policy attention.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Finally, while the 1339<sup>th</sup> meeting highlighted the importance of including women and youth in AI governance processes, the PSC may wish to strengthen its approach through a more comprehensive human rights framework. Such a framework, apart from ensuring integration of safeguards for protection of vulnerable groups and key sectors of society, could address emerging concerns related to biometric surveillance, the misuse of facial recognition technologies, data privacy, and the proliferation of digital authoritarian tools.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">There is also a need to address the risk of policy fragmentation within the AU system in view of the multiple initiatives in various parts of the AU. This underscores the need to have an AU-wide AI governance framework that is coherent across AU institutions and firmly grounded in existing African normative and legal instruments, particularly human and peoples’ rights standards, as well as continental frameworks on data protection and cybersecurity. The PSC should explore how the commitments made by Member States through the ratification of the AU Malabo Convention can be leveraged to strengthen AI governance and promote the safe, responsible, and peace-advancing use of AI across Africa.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The turn to AI realism that the 1339<sup>th</sup> session marked could signify a useful baseline framework that all AU bodies and member states at the national level could draw on for informing their policy approach relating to AI.</p>
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		<title>South Sudan’s Unfinished Transition: The Search for Common Ground</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/south-sudans-unfinished-transition-the-search-for-common-ground/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 08:56:04 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Ideas Indaba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=23687</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>9 June 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/south-sudans-unfinished-transition-the-search-for-common-ground/">South Sudan’s Unfinished Transition: The Search for Common Ground</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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<h1>South Sudan’s Unfinished Transition: The Search for Common Ground</h1>
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</div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 9 June 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-11" data-row="script-row-unique-11" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-11"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-12"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-6 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ></div></div></div></div></div><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-6 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-weight: normal;">By: Dr. Francis Deng and Dr. Amir Idris</span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt;">Dr. Francis Deng</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-weight: normal;"> is Sudan’s former Ambassador to the Scandinavian countries, Canada, and the United States, and State Minister for Foreign Affairs, and South Sudan’s first Permanent Representative to the UN</span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt;">Dr. Amir Idris</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-weight: normal;"> is a professor of African history and politics in the Department of History at Fordham University, New York. His latest book is <i>Race, Ethnicity, and Violence in South Sudan</i> (2024)</span></h2>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">South Sudan’s transition remains unfinished, not only because of weak institutions, repeated political crises, and a lack of political will, but also because the country has yet to agree on a shared common ground. At the heart of the problem is a deeper question: what kind of state, system of governance, and form of citizenship should define South Sudan?</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">It is more accurate to describe South Sudan not as a failed state, but as a country with an unfinished transition. The structures of a state are there. Government institutions exist, administrative systems function, and legal frameworks are in place. However, what is missing is a shared foundation that can make these structures work in a democratic, responsive, and legitimate way.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">This is not just a theoretical argument. It is grounded in the country’s own experience, through the Revitalized Peace Agreement, the National Dialogue, and the constitution-making process. Across all these efforts, one pattern is clear: a persistent gap between formal agreements and real consensus, between international support and national ownership, and between elite decision-making and the expectations of ordinary citizens.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">South Sudan has not collapsed as a state. What remains incomplete is the transition toward a fully functioning, accountable, and legitimate political system. The principles, institutional culture, and governance practices needed for democracy are still weak or missing. The state has a skeleton, but it lacks the strength to function effectively. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">In this context, expectations of credible elections in December 2026 are difficult to sustain. Elections are not simply about procedures. They depend on trust, accountability, inclusion, and the rule of law, all of which remain fragile. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">If South Sudan’s transition is unfinished, then the question is: what is holding it back?</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">One major obstacle is the absence of common ground. Over the years, national initiatives have often worked against each other instead of reinforcing one another. The peace process and the National Dialogue became competing projects rather than complementary ones. Each side questioned the legitimacy of the other. Some saw the peace process as foreign-driven and biased toward opposition groups, while others viewed the National Dialogue as a government-led effort to consolidate power. Attempts were made to bridge these divides. Some opposition groups joined, others withdrew. The result was not consensus, but continued fragmentation, evidence of how fragile trust remains and how deep political and ethnic divisions continue to shape the country.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">More broadly, political leaders have engaged in parallel processes without building a shared national framework. These initiatives have too often become arenas of competition over power and resources, rather than genuine efforts to build unity and reconciliation.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The Revitalized Peace Agreement itself reflects this problem. While leaders projected unity at the signing, serious disagreements remained unresolved. Many sought to avoid appearing obstructive before international mediators while maintaining fundamentally different positions on key issues such as power-sharing and resource distribution. The result was an agreement that was formally accepted but lacked deep national commitment. The ongoing challenges in implementation, and the continued emergence of new initiatives, highlight the gap between what is agreed on paper and what happens in practice.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Equally troubling is the expectation that external actors should finance basic elements of peace implementation. Requests for food, uniforms, and equipment for cantonment sites point to a deeper issue: peacebuilding is often treated as an international responsibility rather than a national obligation. Without ownership, peace agreements risk becoming external projects rather than national commitments.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The same pattern appears in the constitution-making process. New bodies are formed, members are appointed, and workshops are held, often funded by external donors, but real progress remains slow. There is also heavy reliance on foreign experts applying general models that may not reflect South Sudan’s realities. But a constitution cannot be imported. It must reflect the values, history, and experiences of the people. It requires broad participation and must speak directly to the country’s challenges. It should express a collective national will, not simply meet technical standards. Despite international support for South Sudan’s independence, the country has yet to convene a truly sovereign national constitutional conference to define its shared future. Political and military elites have not delivered the transition to democracy.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Another major weakness lies in the exclusion of ordinary citizens. Peace and constitutional processes have focused overwhelmingly on political elites, on power-sharing, positions, and security arrangements, while the broader population remains on the margins. Yet many of the country’s conflicts are local: disputes over land, cattle, resources, and representation. These conflicts persist even when national agreements are signed. As a result, elite peace deals do not always translate into peace in people’s daily lives. A sustainable transition requires broader participation. Peace cannot come only from agreements among leaders; it must reflect the needs and concerns of communities across the country.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Transitional justice presents another unresolved challenge. South Sudan must balance accountability with reconciliation as it confronts its violent past and the painful memories it continues to carry. While international approaches often emphasize punishment, many African traditions focus on healing and restoring relationships. The country will need a system that brings these approaches together, one that delivers justice while also promoting national healing. The central lesson is clear: South Sudan’s unfinished transition is, at its core, a crisis of shared vision and national ownership.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Moving forward requires more than institutions and agreements. It requires a common understanding of the values that should guide the state. It requires leadership that prioritizes inclusion, equality, and human dignity. It requires using national resources, especially oil, to support development, particularly in agriculture. It requires decentralizing governance, so communities have a greater voice. And it requires investing in infrastructure, especially roads, to connect the country and strengthen national unity.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Above all, it requires shifting from externally driven processes and elite bargains to a truly national project shaped by the people of South Sudan. Until that happens, until leaders and citizens find common ground on governance, justice, inclusion, and development, the transition will remain unfinished. Only then can South Sudan turn its formal structures into a functioning democracy capable of delivering peace, dignity, and prosperity for all.</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><em>The content of this article does not represent the views of Amani Africa and reflect only the personal views of the authors who contribute to ‘Ideas Indaba’</em></p>
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		<title>At a fragile moment for the African Union’s support to the country, Somalia’s weakest link strikes, again</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/at-a-fragile-moment-for-the-african-unions-support-to-the-country-somalia-s-weakest-link-strikes-again/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 06:53:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Ideas Indaba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=23702</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>8 June 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/at-a-fragile-moment-for-the-african-unions-support-to-the-country-somalia-s-weakest-link-strikes-again/">At a fragile moment for the African Union’s support to the country, Somalia’s weakest link strikes, again</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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<h1>At a fragile moment for the African Union’s support to the country, Somalia’s weakest link strikes, again</h1>
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</div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 8 June 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-15" data-row="script-row-unique-15" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-15"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-16"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>Zekarias Beshah, Senior Researcher, Amani Africa</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>Solomon Ayele Dersso, PhD, Founding Director, Amani Africa</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The weakest link in Somalia’s quest to end the protracted conflict is the fragmentation and infighting between the political elites of the country. The constitutional revision process and the conduct of elections have become major sites of power struggle and confrontation between rival political elites, although these are not the only sites of confrontation between these elites.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/briefing-on-the-situation-in-somalia/">Five years ago</a>, the expiry of the terms of parliament and the president in December 2020 and February 2021 respectively, without any political consensus on the time and modality of elections plunged Somalia into a constitutional crisis and political uncertainty. In a development that mimicked the resultant violent confrontation of April 2021, Somalia’s weakest link struck again as political leaders failed to agree on a constitutional amendment and the modality for holding parliamentary and presidential elections.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Photo curtesy: The Somali Digest </figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-17" data-row="script-row-unique-17" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-17"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-18"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">On 3 June, fighting erupted in Mogadishu between government forces and armed groups loyal to opposition leaders near the residences of former Prime Minister Hassan Khaire and former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. The clashes occurred ahead of a planned protest scheduled for 4 June against the one-year extension of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term, which opponents argue expired in mid-May. The confrontation continued into 4 June before subsiding following mediated talks.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>Former Somalia President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (left) and former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khayre (right), both prominent opposition figures in Somalia’s current political crisis.</figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-19" data-row="script-row-unique-19" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-19"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-20"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The latest violence is the culmination of months of growing tensions between the FGS and opposition forces organised under the Somali Future Council—a coalition established in October 2025 by the leaders of Puntland and Jubaland, together with other opposition figures, to coordinate positions on major national issues, including constitutional amendment, notably those relating to electoral reform and the role of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) vis-à-vis Federal Member States (FMS).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Five years ago, Somalia plunged into political and security turmoil after the lower house of Somalia’s parliament adopted a bill extending its own term of office and that of the President and President Farmajo’s assenting of the bill into a ‘Special Election Law’ purporting to return Somalia to a one-person one-vote electoral model. The latest eruption of political showdown and armed confrontation in Mogadishu followed, as in April 2021, the adoption by Somalia’s bicameral Federal Parliament of amendments to the 2012 Provisional Constitution, among others, extending the terms of the Federal Parliament and the President from four to five years and introducing a highly contested direct electoral system. Just like former President Farmajo, President Mohamud did exactly what he opposed five years ago and signed the constitutional amendments into law on 8 March. As in 2021 (which sought to extend elections by two years), the constitutional changes extended the incumbent president’s tenure by one year beyond its expiry on 15 May and <a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/drc-m23-rwanda-somalia-fgs-sfc-sudan-rsf-saf-africa-file-may-14-2026?utm_campaign=22139245-FDP_NLR%20CTP%20Africa%20File&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_p4-kXQhwApWnJEC9b-Uxe5U2II5t-U_ufEna6sl_DmZ5_Nxy_y9tqfw098lBcpzcBj_bCv8pZnkwm7SaS8E1iW06wQg&amp;_hsmi=418854447&amp;utm_content=418854447&amp;utm_source=hs_email#Somalia">postponed</a> federal elections until 2027.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As in 2021, opposition groups have strongly rejected the constitutional changes. They argued that the changes were adopted unilaterally and without the broad political consensus required for such fundamental reforms. Consequently, they do not recognise the extension of President Mohamud’s mandate and maintain that his constitutional term ended in May.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The political impasse that these amendments and Mohamud’s continuation in power after the expiry of his term in May eventually escalated into armed confrontation, when opposition groups sought to stage protests on 4 June. It was against this backdrop that the opposition sought to organise demonstrations in Mogadishu on 4 June, but the deployment by the Government of security forces to the residences of the former Prime Minister and former President amid rising tension tipped the situation into armed confrontation.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>Smoke rises over a residential area of Howl Wadaag in Mogadishu after reports of mortar strikes on 4 June 2026. Photo curtesy: AFP/Getty Images</figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-21" data-row="script-row-unique-21" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-21"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-22"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The confrontation has alarmed both domestic and international actors because of the risk that the escalation could spiral into a broader and less controllable conflict. Such an outcome would have profound implications for Somalia’s fragile stability and could undermine years of hard-won security gains achieved in the fight against Al-Shabaab. There are growing concerns that the militant group could exploit political divisions and security vacuums created by the crisis to expand its influence and operational reach.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">International and regional actors responded swiftly to the violence. The Chairperson of the African Union Commission <a href="https://x.com/_AfricanUnion/status/2062470250403123204/photo/1">called</a> on all parties to cease hostilities immediately, exercise maximum restraint, protect civilians, and avoid actions that could further escalate tensions. The Chairperson also urged Somali stakeholders to resolve their differences through dialogue and established constitutional mechanisms. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) <a href="https://igad.int/igad-calls-for-immediate-de-escalation-to-protect-somalias-stability-and-future/">called</a> for de-escalation to protect Somalia’s stability and future. Similarly, the United Nations Secretary-General <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/notes-correspondents/2026-06-04/note-correspondents-somalia">issued</a> a statement, underscoring the urgent need for all stakeholders to resume dialogue and identify a way forward to preserve the progress Somalia has achieved over recent years.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Although the immediate violence appears to have subsided following intense mediation efforts by traditional leaders and international actors, the underlying political disagreements remain unresolved, leaving open the possibility of renewed escalation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Beyond the immediate security implications, the crisis constitutes a major test of Somalia’s state-building project, the resilience of its institutions, and the maturity of political actors in managing disputes before they evolve into wider conflict. The developments also warrant close attention from international partners, particularly the AU, which has deployed peace support operations in Somalia since 2007 and secured substantial, albeit fragile, security gains through the sacrifice of the lives and limbs of thousands.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The timing of the crisis is particularly concerning given the challenges facing the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). The mission is currently grappling with significant political, operational, and financial constraints as it seeks to preserve security gains and support the gradual transfer of security responsibilities to Somali forces.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">For years, Somali political actors have continued to defer the assumption of full responsibility, as they continue to outsource security responsibility with their heavy reliance on AU-led security support. Despite notable progress, Somalia, on account of the weakest link in the equation for its stability, has yet to develop the level of institutional and security capacities necessary to fully assume responsibility for its own security. The latest political confrontation, if not resolved promptly, undermines confidence about progress for achieving a level of organisation and capability of Somalia&#8217;s security institutions for them to assume full security responsibility.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The crisis also reinforces a broader lesson for the AU: security interventions alone cannot provide a sustainable solution to Somalia’s challenges. Without an accompanying political strategy capable of addressing the underlying causes of instability and fostering political consensus, even significant security achievements remain vulnerable to reversal. AU’s interest and role are not just that of any third party. It has a direct and major stake in what is unfolding in Somalia and as such cannot afford to simply limit its engagement for de-escalating the situation and securing agreement on the holding of elections at the level of issuing statements.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">First, as <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/993rd-meeting-on-somalia.22.04.2021.pdf">it did during the April 2021 political crisis</a>, the AU Peace and Security Council could convene an emergency session to provide strategic guidance and adopt firm and principled policy decisions for urgent consensus on the holding of elections. In 2021, the PSC condemned the extension of the mandate of the president and the parliament. Second, the Chairperson of the AU Commission could undertake a high-level diplomatic mission to Mogadishu to engage directly with key stakeholders and encourage a negotiated resolution to the crisis. Third, the AU could work with IGAD, the United Nations, and international partners with leverage on Somali political actors—including the United States and Türkiye—to establish a coordinated mediation framework aimed at establishing a consensual and mutually acceptable arrangement for holding elections, while creating conditions for a broader political settlement that permanently ends Somalia’s weakest link.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In the short term, one of the intriguing questions is whether the incumbent, President Mohamud, would succeed in what his predecessor, former President Farmajo, tried and failed five years ago. This will determine the trajectory of the political dimension of Somalia&#8217;s protracted conflict.</p>
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</div><p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/at-a-fragile-moment-for-the-african-unions-support-to-the-country-somalia-s-weakest-link-strikes-again/">At a fragile moment for the African Union’s support to the country, Somalia’s weakest link strikes, again</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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		<title>Beyond the Flag-Off: Building a Sustainable Maritime Security Architecture in the Gulf of Guinea</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/beyond-the-flag-off-building-a-sustainable-maritime-security-architecture-in-the-gulf-of-guinea/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 11:39:16 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Ideas Indaba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=23658</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>4 June 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/beyond-the-flag-off-building-a-sustainable-maritime-security-architecture-in-the-gulf-of-guinea/">Beyond the Flag-Off: Building a Sustainable Maritime Security Architecture in the Gulf of Guinea</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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<div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h1 class="font-555555 fontsize-189933 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-color-165108-color" ><span><strong>Beyond the Flag-Off: Building a Sustainable Maritime Security Architecture in the Gulf of Guinea</strong></span></h1></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 4 June 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>Tefesehet Hailu, Senior Researcher, Amani Africa</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">On 1 June 2026, leaders and naval representatives from six Gulf of Guinea states gathered in Lagos, Nigeria, for the ceremonial flag-off of the Combined Maritime Task Force (CMTF), marking a historic milestone in Africa&#8217;s efforts to develop a standing, ready-to-deploy maritime security capability. The six Gulf of Guinea countries that pioneered the task force are Côte d&#8217;Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>Source: <a href="https://kanempress.org/president-tinubu-s-renewed-hope-agenda-steers-nigerian-navy-to-african-naval-supremacy-as-shettima-leads-new-maritime-security-frontier-at-70-nigerian-navy-emerges-africas-strongest-sea-force-as/">KANEM Press</a></figcaption></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Coming only weeks after the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) considered the operationalisation of the CMTF at its 1346<sup>th</sup> session on 15 May 2026, the ceremony represented the most tangible manifestation yet of a process that began with the PSC&#8217;s call for a maritime task force in 2021. The flag-off not only signalled the transition of the CMTF from a conceptual framework into an operational mechanism, but also reflected growing continental recognition that maritime security has become an indispensable pillar of Africa&#8217;s peace, security, trade, and development agenda. The ceremony further underscored Nigeria&#8217;s leadership role in advancing regional maritime security and aligned with broader efforts under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu&#8217;s Renewed Hope Agenda to strengthen maritime governance and security cooperation across the Gulf of Guinea.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">A central focus of the PSC&#8217;s deliberations was the assessment of progress toward operationalising the CMTF as Africa&#8217;s first standing and ready-to-deploy maritime force. The Council welcomed a series of developments that have steadily transformed the initiative from a political aspiration into an emerging operational reality. These included the adoption of the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) by ten Gulf of Guinea countries, the endorsement by the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government of Nigeria&#8217;s offer to host the headquarters, and Nigeria&#8217;s commitment to provide key operational assets, including three ships, one helicopter, eight vehicles, and temporary headquarters facilities in Lagos.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The subsequent flag-off ceremony on 1 June provided visible evidence that the CMTF has entered a new phase of development. While largely symbolic, the ceremony demonstrated that participating states are increasingly prepared to move beyond declarations of intent toward practical implementation. Viewed within the broader trajectory of PSC engagement on maritime security, the ceremony represents the culmination of a gradual institutional evolution: from the Council&#8217;s initial call for a Maritime Task Force during its 1012<sup>th</sup> session in 2021, through the formal endorsement of the CMTF in 2025, to the operational readiness milestones recorded in 2026. The challenge now will be ensuring that the momentum generated by the flag-off translates into sustained operational capability, regular deployments, and measurable improvements in maritime security outcomes.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Although piracy incidents in the Gulf of Guinea have declined significantly in recent years, the PSC correctly recognised that the region&#8217;s maritime security challenges have become increasingly diverse and complex. The reduction in piracy should not obscure the persistence of other forms of maritime criminality that continue to undermine regional stability and economic development. Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, oil theft, trafficking in narcotics and arms, maritime-linked organised crime, and environmental crimes have emerged as some of the most significant threats confronting the region.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Particularly noteworthy is the growing recognition of the linkages between maritime insecurity and broader regional instability. Criminal networks increasingly operate across maritime and terrestrial domains, connecting illicit economies in the Gulf of Guinea with conflict dynamics in the Sahel. The southward expansion of violent extremist groups into northern areas of coastal states such as Benin, Togo, Ghana and Côte d&#8217;Ivoire has further blurred traditional distinctions between maritime and inland security threats. This evolving threat landscape reinforces the rationale for the CMTF not merely as a counter-piracy mechanism, but as a broader instrument to address transnational maritime threats that increasingly intersect with regional peace and security challenges.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The PSC&#8217;s discussions also reflected a growing appreciation that maritime security is not solely a security concern but a strategic development imperative. The Gulf of Guinea remains one of Africa&#8217;s most important maritime regions, facilitating the overwhelming majority of international trade for West and Central African coastal states while serving as a critical source of energy exports and marine resources. The Council&#8217;s emphasis on the relationship between maritime security, the Blue Economy, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the 2050 Africa&#8217;s Integrated Maritime Strategy (2050 AIMS), and the Lomé Charter illustrates a more integrated understanding of maritime governance within continental development priorities.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Beyond its regional significance, the CMTF may also represent an important test case for strengthening the maritime dimension of the African Standby Force (ASF). As the AU continues to seek practical mechanisms for enhancing operational readiness, interoperability, and rapid deployment capabilities, the CMTF could provide valuable lessons for future maritime operations under the African Peace and Security Architecture. In this regard, the initiative&#8217;s success or failure will have implications that extend far beyond the Gulf of Guinea.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Despite the positive developments celebrated during the Lagos flag-off ceremony, questions surrounding sustainability remain largely unresolved. The communiqué reiterated the need for predictable financing, equitable burden-sharing, and collective ownership, yet stopped short of identifying concrete funding arrangements or operational cost-sharing mechanisms. This omission is particularly significant given that inadequate resources and inconsistent political commitment were identified within the CMTF&#8217;s own CONOPS as key factors limiting the effectiveness of existing maritime security arrangements under the Yaoundé Architecture.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The heavy reliance on Nigeria&#8217;s political leadership, naval assets, and logistical support demonstrates commendable regional leadership while also highlighting a structural vulnerability. Unless broader contributions are secured from participating states, there is a risk that the CMTF could become overly dependent on a single state&#8217;s capabilities. The true measure of success following the flag-off ceremony will therefore not be the symbolism of the launch itself, but rather whether participating states translate their political commitments into sustainable financial contributions, force-generation commitments, and operational participation. Without such collective ownership, the CMTF risks replicating many of the same institutional and resource constraints that have historically limited regional maritime security initiatives.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In a nutshell, the flag-off of the CMTF in Lagos on 1 June 2026 represents a landmark achievement for African-led maritime security cooperation. It also demonstrates the growing political commitment among Gulf of Guinea states to address maritime insecurity collectively. Yet the ceremony should be viewed as the beginning rather than the culmination of the process. The ultimate test of the CMTF will lie not in its establishment but in its sustainability, operational effectiveness, and ability to generate measurable security outcomes. Success will require predictable financing, equitable burden-sharing, robust coordination with the Yaoundé Architecture, harmonised legal frameworks, and continued political support from AU member states. If these challenges are addressed, the CMTF has the potential not only to strengthen security in the Gulf of Guinea but also to serve as a model for future AU-led maritime operational mechanisms and contribute to the development of the maritime dimension of the African Standby Force. If not, the Task Force risks becoming another ambitious institutional initiative that struggles to move beyond symbolic significance.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><em>The content of this article does not represent the views of Amani Africa and reflect only the personal views of the authors who contribute to ‘Ideas Indaba’</em></p>
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</div><p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/beyond-the-flag-off-building-a-sustainable-maritime-security-architecture-in-the-gulf-of-guinea/">Beyond the Flag-Off: Building a Sustainable Maritime Security Architecture in the Gulf of Guinea</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Last Serious African Mediation? Reflections on and lessons from the AUHIP Experience and the Meaning of African Political Agency</title>
		<link>https://amaniafrica-et.org/thelast-serious-african-mediation-reflections-on-and-lessons-from-the-auhip-experience-and-the-meaning-of-african-political-agency/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:51:29 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>2 June 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/thelast-serious-african-mediation-reflections-on-and-lessons-from-the-auhip-experience-and-the-meaning-of-african-political-agency/">The Last Serious African Mediation? Reflections on and lessons from the AUHIP Experience and the Meaning of African Political Agency</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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<div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h1 class="font-555555 fontsize-189933 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-color-165108-color" ><span><strong>The Last Serious African Mediation?<br /></span><span>Reflections on and lessons from the AUHIP Experience and the Meaning of African Political Agency</strong></span></h1></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 2 June 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><strong>Abdul Mohammed</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Africa and the African Union (AU) have rich mediation experiences from the post-election crisis in Kenya (2007/2008) to the civil war in Darfur, Sudan to draw from for restoring the peacemaking and mediation leadership that the AU lost. The release of the book titled <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501786563/the-sudans/#bookTabs=1"><em>The Sudans</em></a> by Alex de Waal and Willow Berridge providing the most comprehensive and detailed data and analysis on one of AU’s most sustained and impactful mediation process.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">There are moments in history when institutions are not merely bureaucratic creations but expressions of political conviction. The African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) was born in such a moment.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">To understand the significance of the AUHIP experience—and why its lessons matter urgently today—it is necessary to recall the Africa that gave rise to it.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The AUHIP emerged at the zenith of a remarkable era in which the continent’s organizations were invigorated: the transformation of the Organisation of African Unity into the African Union, the emergence of New Economic Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), and the construction of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). Across Africa, leaders, intellectuals, diplomats, liberation veterans, civic formations, and policy thinkers were engaged in profound reflection on Pan-Africanism and African agency in a changing world.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This was not merely institutional reform. It was an attempt to redefine Africa’s political Destiny and agency.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">New norms and principles were adopted. The Peace and Security Council was established. Mediation became a strategic political instrument rather than an <em>ad hoc</em> diplomatic exercise. The ‘primacy of politics’ was embraced as a guiding doctrine for conflict prevention and resolution. Africa committed itself, at least normatively, to leave no conflict unattended.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The phrase ‘African solutions to African problems’ was widely invoked during this period. Unfortunately, it is often misunderstood today. It never meant excluding international actors or retreating into continental isolation. Rather, it meant that Africans themselves had to assume responsibility for defining the political nature of their crises and shaping the frameworks for their resolution. International partnership remained essential, but African political ownership had to provide the strategic direction.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Sudan became one of the first and most consequential tests of this new African doctrine.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Darfur conflict erupted in 2003 just as the APSA was taking shape. Indeed, Darfur was among the earliest agenda items confronted by the newly established PSC of the AU, leading to the adoption of several far-reaching decisions, including the deployment of a mission to protect civilians and oversee the ceasefire reached among the belligerents, as well as the launching of a political process to achieve a lasting settlement (see <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/on-why-darfur-deserves-a-special-attention/">here</a>).</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>PSC’s Engagement on Sudan and Specific Sessions addressing the situation in Darfur, 2004 up to end of May 2023</figcaption></div><div class="uncode_text_column text-small" ><p><em>Taken from Amani Africa&#8217;s Ideas Indaba article titled Why Darfur deserves a special attention, published on 22 June 2023</em></p>
</div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">At that moment, the crisis was being actively defined externally—by international advocacy groups, humanitarian campaigns, major powers, and competing geopolitical narratives. The dominant global framing of Darfur as genocide shaped international diplomacy, which resulted in the referral of the Sudan situation to the International Criminal Court and the indictment, years later, of President Omar al-Bashir But the AU recognized something important: unless Africa itself defined the political character of the crisis, it would never be able to contribute meaningfully to its resolution.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">That was the significance of the July 2008 PSC decision to establish the African Union High-Level Panel on Darfur (AUPD). Chaired by former President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and composed of former President Abdulsalami Abubakar of Nigeria and former President Pierre Buyoya of Burundi, the Panel later evolved into the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel’s first and most important decision was deceptively simple: it resolved to define the problem.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I remember vividly how seriously this was taken. Defining the problem was not treated as a rhetorical exercise. It was understood as the very foundation of mediation itself. A wrongly defined conflict inevitably produces a wrongly designed peace process.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel therefore embarked upon one of the most extensive consultative exercises ever undertaken in African mediation. For more than forty days, it travelled throughout Darfur, speaking with people from all walks of life: armed movements, displaced communities, tribal leaders, women’s groups, civil society organizations, intellectuals, native administrations, youth groups, religious leaders, and ordinary citizens.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This was not diplomacy confined to hotels and conference halls. It was political listening as method.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The consultations were enabled by the joint AU–United Nations peacekeeping operation, UNAMID, particularly through the Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and Consultation mechanism. At the time, I was serving within the political structures supporting these processes and was directly involved in coordinating aspects of this engagement before later being seconded fully to the Panel itself, where I eventually served as Chief of Staff.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">What struck me most was the seriousness with which mediation was approached—not as technical facilitation, but as political responsibility. The Panel assembled exceptionally competent African and international experts who worked collectively to support a political process rooted in African norms, principles, and institutional legitimacy. There was a belief that mediation required intellectual depth, historical understanding, political sensitivity, and strategic patience.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">And above all, there was humility before the complexity of Sudan itself.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The consultations ultimately produced a definition of the Darfur crisis that differed significantly from prevailing international narratives. The Panel concluded that Darfur was not an isolated problem detached from Sudan’s wider political history. It was ‘the Sudanese crisis in Darfur.’ In other words, Darfur reflected deeper structural failures of governance, marginalization, exclusion, unequal development, and the unresolved management of diversity within the Sudanese state.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This distinction mattered enormously because it changed the logic of conflict resolution itself.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">If Darfur was fundamentally a Sudanese political crisis, then the solution could not be reduced merely to humanitarian management, military containment, or negotiations among armed actors. There could be no stand-alone solution for Darfur. It required a broader political transformation of Sudan.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel also proposed one of the most innovative recommendations in African mediation at the time: the establishment of a hybrid court to address questions of justice and accountability. But the Sudanese government hesitated to embrace this aspect of the recommendations. This reluctance proved consequential.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">When the report was presented to a special summit of the PSC in Abuja in October 2009, the discussions among African heads of state were remarkable. Several leaders argued that for the first time, Africa had produced its own coherent political definition of a major continental conflict and that the methodology itself (extensive consultation with affected people and the various conflict actors) should guide future African conflict resolution efforts.</p>
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</div><div class="uncode-single-media  text-left"><div class="single-wrapper" style="max-width: 100%;"><div class="tmb tmb-light  tmb-media-first tmb-media-last tmb-content-overlay tmb-no-bg"><div class="t-inside"><div class="t-entry-visual"><div class="t-entry-visual-tc"><div class="uncode-single-media-wrapper"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-23616" src="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2-28.jpg" width="720" height="335" alt="" srcset="https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2-28.jpg 720w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2-28-300x140.jpg 300w, https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2-28-350x163.jpg 350w" sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" /></div>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>President Thabo Mbeki in Ain Siro in Darfur along with some of the members of his team including Alex de Waal, Zakari Ahmed and Ali Haroun, AU Translator Photo curtesy of Alex de Waal Worl Peace Foundation</figcaption></div><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The AUHIP pivoted from the Darfur file toward another historic responsibility: accompanying the implementation of the outstanding matters of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and helping manage the approaching referendum on self-determination for the people of southern Sudan.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel had defined the Darfur issue through consultation with the people of Darfur. This was different: the Panel was mandated to facilitate the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in completing an agenda that had already been agreed. But the next stage demanded forward thinking, and the Panel defined the purpose of the post-referendum North-South negotiations around a central concept: the creation of’“two viable states.’ As extensively documented in the Two Sudans, this became the organizing political framework of the mediation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel understood clearly that if the referendum resulted in separation—as increasingly appeared inevitable—the task of mediation was not merely to manage partition administratively, but to ensure that both Sudan and South Sudan emerged as viable states capable of coexistence and future cooperation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Every issue—citizenship, borders, oil, the disputed territory of Abyei, security arrangements, economic cooperation—was approached through the lens of whether it would contribute to stability, viability, and long-term coexistence between the two states.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel constantly challenged the parties to think politically. The mediation sought not merely to broker deals, but to legitimize political thinking itself as a tool of statecraft and as a method of mediation.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">On the eve of the referendum, as documented in details in the Two Sudans, President Thabo Mbeki delivered two seminal lectures—one at the University of Khartoum and another at the University of Juba. In both, he reminded leaders and citizens alike that if the people of South Sudan voted for independence, this would not produce one Arab country and one African country. Rather, it would produce two African countries, both carrying responsibilities toward Pan-African cooperation, coexistence, and integration.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Another important lesson from the AUHIP experience was the disciplined integration of international actors into the mediation process under African political leadership.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The United Nations, IGAD, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway—the Troika—were all closely integrated into the mediation framework. They contributed expertise, political leverage, technical support, and diplomatic backing. But critically, this occurred within a coherent political architecture led by the Panel.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">This avoided the parallel mediation tracks and fragmentation that plague many contemporary peace processes today.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel also took seriously its responsibility to regularly brief the AU PSC in detail. These substantive engagements enabled the Council to understand the complexity of the issues and adopted informed communiqués and decisions that strengthened the mediation process.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As a result, the PSC and the UN Security Council frequently operated in close coordination, issuing complementary statements and resolutions in support of the mediation effort.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As Chief of Staff of the AUHIP, I witnessed firsthand the remarkable commitment of the African and international experts who supported the process. They worked tirelessly, often under enormous pressure, and brought out the best in one another through collective purpose and discipline.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The resulting agreements were extraordinarily detailed and comprehensive—arguably among the most sophisticated political agreements ever produced in mediation history on the continent.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">One aspect of the Panel’s work that remains especially vivid in my memory was President Mbeki’s practice during moments of crisis in the negotiations.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Whenever the process reached difficult impasses, President Mbeki would write lengthy and deeply thoughtful letters to President Omar al-Bashir, President Salva Kiir, and the two parties’ respective chief negotiators. These letters reminded the leaders of their historic responsibilities, outlined the difficulties confronting the mediation, proposed pathways forward, and insisted upon a central principle: that responsibility for peace ultimately belonged to the Sudanese parties themselves, not to the mediators.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I often reflect on those letters today. They represented mediation not simply as facilitation, but as sustained political engagement and ethical persuasion.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Among those who played an indispensable role in supporting the work of both the AUPD and the AUHIP was the late Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi. As Chair of IGAD and as a sitting African head of government deeply invested in peace and stability in the region, Prime Minister Meles provided exceptional political support to the mediation effort. During moments of serious stalemate and tension, his interventions were often decisive. He engaged directly with the leadership of both Sudan and South Sudan and with the chief negotiators, offering ideas and political pathways that helped unlock difficult impasses. His support for the Panel was exemplary and reflected a profound understanding of mediation as strategic African statecraft.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Tragically, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi passed away before the completion of the negotiations. In recognition of his immense contribution, the two parties and the chief mediators agreed to dedicate the agreement signed between Sudan and South Sudan in his honor. It was a deeply emotional and symbolic moment that reflected the respect he had earned across the process. The resultant full confidence of the two countries in Ethiopia led to the unprecedented and historic development in which Ethiopia was invited to serve as the only troop contributing country for the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Looking back today, I increasingly believe the AUHIP represented the high-water mark of an era when Africa attempted to practice mediation as serious political statecraft. What made this mediation practice standout was how it built and nurtured collective strategic leadership through leveraging AU’s normative and policy instruments, constantly galvanized the consensus and support of member states and successfully sustaining international alignment. It was also exemplary in being anchored on a political strategy pursued through the policy leadership of the PSC and the political and technical stewardship of the AUHIP.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Unfortunately, many of the lessons from that period were not sustained. Over time, fragmentation returned.  Collective strategic leadership faded. Competing mediation initiatives proliferated. Geopolitical competition intensified. The coherence that once existed between African institutions and international actors gradually weakened. Respect for shared norms diminished and multilateral frameworks disregarded. This is the context in which contemporary mediation is taking place.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The central lesson of the AUHIP experience remains profoundly relevant: sustainable peace cannot emerge unless mediators possess the political courage and intellectual discipline to define conflicts honestly, engage societies broadly, and insist upon political solutions rooted in legitimacy and ownership.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Ownership means that the parties themselves take the credit and win the plaudits, not the mediator. That is one reason why it has taken more than a decade for this book to be published—none of those involved wanted to rush to claim the limelight.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Dag Hammarskjöld once observed that multilateral institutions were not created to take humanity to heaven, but to save it from hell. The AUHIP exemplifies the seriousness with which African institutions carried such responsibilities at that time.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel also benefited enormously from the exemplary support and facilitation of the African Union Commission itself. Under the leadership of Chairperson Jean Ping and subsequently Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, along with Commissioner for Peace and Security Said Djinnit and his successor Ramtane Lamamra, El-Ghassim Wane, then Director of the Peace and Security Department, and senior staff, such as Dawit Toga played crucial roles.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">All in all, the AU mobilized its political, diplomatic, and technical capacities in support of the Panel’s work, without fretting about control or taking credit. The commitment of various AU actors reflected a period when the AU approached mediation not as peripheral diplomacy, but as a central strategic responsibility. This responsibility was not seen as a matter of personal choice or discretion of particular leaders of the AU Commission but is discharged as mandatory pan-African public role and by actively seeking and harnessing the contribution of all those whose role advances the cause of peace.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel also received dedicated and indispensable support from key international and regional partners, highlighting the collective nature of the exercise. Haile Menkerios and the late Nicholas Haysom, both serving as representatives of the United Nations Secretary-General, provided critical political and diplomatic backing throughout the process. Key UN staff included Vladimir Zhagora and Muin Shreim. Ambassador Lissane Yohannes, representing IGAD, the late Ambassador Princeton Lyman, the Special Envoy of the United States, and Mohamed Yonis, Head of Administration of UNAMID, all played vital roles in sustaining and supporting the mediation effort at crucial moments.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Panel’s support team was the nerve centre of the work of the Panel. As Chief of Staff of the AUHIP, I attest with deep appreciation the extraordinary dedication and professionalism of the colleagues who formed part of the Panel’s support team. Among them were Paatii Ofosu-Amaah, Barney Afako, Alex de Waal, Allan Pillay, Sani Atsu, Neha Erasmus, Pauline Odera, Laura James, Sarah Nouwen, Chris Luckham, Boitshoko Mokgatlhe, Ambassador Mahmoud Kane, Ali Hassan, Fiona Lortan, Mukoni Ratshitanga, Mashood Issaka, Eric Abibo N’gandu, Sergine Gakwaya, Meron Genene and many others whose tireless efforts, intellectual rigor, and collective sense of purpose were indispensable to the success of the Panel.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501786563/the-sudans/#bookTabs=1"><em>The Sudans</em></a> by Alex de Waal and Willow Berridge captures and documents this African mediation journey with exceptional richness and depth. The book is fundamentally about the work of the Panel itself and the broader political and mediation experience surrounding Sudan and South Sudan as well as the lessons from that experience.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The book documents the mediation experience, the negotiations, and the broader African political journey surrounding Sudan and South Sudan with sophistication and humanity. It is not merely a dry institutional account or technical documentation of negotiations. It captures the human drama, the tensions, the personalities, the political dilemmas, and the immense complexity of mediation itself. Much of what I have reflected upon in this essay is captured in the book in extraordinary detail and richness.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Alex de Waal himself was deeply involved in the work of the Panel and contributed immensely across multiple dimensions of the mediation process. No one could have documented this experience with the same depth of understanding.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">As Chief of Staff of the AUHIP, I bear witness to the seriousness, commitment, and integrity with which this work was undertaken. For that reason, I believe <em>The Sudans</em> will stand as one of the most important contributions to the literature of mediation and African political history for many years to come, not least of all by availing authoritative source of reference on the exemplary contribution of the Panel to translating AU norms and processes into mediation practice.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><em>The content of this article does not represent the views of Amani Africa and reflect only the personal views of the authors who contribute to ‘Ideas Indaba’</em></p>
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</div><p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/thelast-serious-african-mediation-reflections-on-and-lessons-from-the-auhip-experience-and-the-meaning-of-african-political-agency/">The Last Serious African Mediation? Reflections on and lessons from the AUHIP Experience and the Meaning of African Political Agency</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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		<title>African Union’s financing envoy calls for financing sovereignty as AU plans an extraordinary ministerial session</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amani Africa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 14:45:29 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Ideas Indaba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2026]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>26 May 2026</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/african-unions-financing-envoy-calls-for-financing-sovereignty-as-au-plans-an-extraordinary-ministerial-session/">African Union’s financing envoy calls for financing sovereignty as AU plans an extraordinary ministerial session</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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<h1>African Union’s financing envoy calls for financing sovereignty as AU plans an extraordinary ministerial session</h1>
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</div><div class="clear"></div></div><div class="vc_custom_heading_wrap "><div class="heading-text el-text" ><h2 class="font-555555 fontsize-182326 fontheight-131383 fontspace-160099 font-weight-600 text-accent-color" ><span>Date | 26 May 2026</span></h2></div><div class="clear"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-27" data-row="script-row-unique-27" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-27"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-28"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The question of financing is taking centre stage in the policy discussions on the African Union’s (AU) role in peace and security. It is in this context that the Eminent Panel of Experts on the review of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the AU Champion on Institutional Reform proposed to increase the capitalisation of the Peace Fund from its current $400 million to $1billion, although this did not receive the enthusiastic support of AU member states.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In addition to the near existential financial crisis afflicting the AU Stabilisation Support Mission to Somalia (AUSSOM), the financing challenge facing the AU can also be drawn from the fact that the lion’s share of the peace and security fund of the AU in 2025 was not from member states contributions.  When it comes to member states&#8217; contribution to peace operations, the lack of progress in meeting the Johannesburg target of 25% becomes even more glaring. The July 2024 Executive Council decision <a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/decisions/44091-EX_CL_DEC_1265_-_1278_XLV_E.pdf">(EX.CL/Dec.1265(XLV)</a> carrying the 2025 budget indicated that ‘peace support operations with a budget of US$52,929,131’ was ‘funded by International Partners.’</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In the context of the major shifts in the nature of international relations involving, among others, the drying up of traditional sources of financing, enhanced self-reliance has become a strategic imperative. This was highlighted in the context of Donald Kaberuka’s recent engagement with the AU. Last March, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) <a href="https://x.com/AUC_PAPS/status/2031391518049661037?s=20">held</a> consultations with Donald Kaberuka, the AU Special Envoy on Sustainable Financing for the Union and Financing for Peace in Africa. Kaberuka informed member states that times have changed and Africa needs to adapt accordingly. On the preceding day, the High Representative also <a href="https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20260309/auc-chairperson-received-au-special-envoy-sustainable-financing-union">met</a> with the Chairperson of the AU Commission.</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>PSC’s engagement with Donald Kaberuka, AU High Representative on Financing the Union and the Peace Fund, 10 March 2026. (Source: X @AUC_PAPS)</figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-29" data-row="script-row-unique-29" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-29"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-30"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">During his engagement with the PSC, Kaberuka underscored the imperative for the AU to rely more decisively on its own financing mechanisms, including the Peace Fund, while expanding partnerships with the private sector and African financial institutions.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">He also emphasised the importance of equitable access to UN-assessed contributions through fair burden-sharing arrangements to support African-led peace operations. While this proposition is in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2719, it is worth recalling that as far as AU-led PSOs authorized under Chapter VII by the UN Security Council is concerned emphasis should be put on the legal and institutional responsibility of the UN for bearing the cost of such mission with AU and its member states bearing the burden that is paid with the lives and limbs of troops and the financial costs associated with the mobilization of such troops.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">While its sustainability remains to be seen, the Peace Fund Secretariat has initiated efforts to source funds from such sources as the private sector and African financial institutions, as well as high-net-worth individuals. Thus, high-level pledging events convened in 2024 and 2025 mobilised some commitments. For instance, in 2024, Afreximbank pledged <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7221198776512774144/">$210 million</a> over three years, while Standard Bank Group and Ethiopian Airlines committed $1 million each. In 2025, additional contributions were secured from institutions such as Africa Reinsurance (Africa Re) (<a href="https://www.afreximbank.com/african-leaders-unite-to-mobilise-african-investment-and-financing-for-implementing-agenda2063/">$1 million</a>), United Bank for Africa (UBA) (<a href="https://newscentral.africa/uba-donates-500000-to-au-peace-fund-to-strengthen-africas-stability/">$500,000</a>), and the African Trade &amp; Investment Development Insurance (ATIDI). Despite these contributions, available resources remain inadequate to meet the continent’s growing peace and security needs.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Across his engagements at the AU in March, Kaberuka stressed the broader objective of strengthening the Union’s financial sovereignty, particularly in light of shifting geopolitical dynamics that are placing increasing strain on the financial position of multilateral institutions. In his X <a href="https://x.com/DonaldKaberuka/status/2031988846251164019">post</a>, Kaberuka further noted that while international solidarity remains important, the AU should fund itself, characterising the financing challenge as ‘longstanding’ but now requiring resolution.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">One of the important avenues for advancing the aspiration of self-financing lies in the implementation of decision AU/Dec.605(XXVII) of July 2016, which instituted the 0.2% import levy on eligible imports as a sustainable financing mechanism for the Union. However, progress in this regard has been limited. In 2018, the AU <a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/pages/35739-file-financing_the_union_6.pdf">reported</a> that only 16 Member States were implementing the Kigali Decision on the 0.2% levy; by 2025, that number had <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/the-funding-of-the-au-from-member-states-is-a-farce-mo-ibrahim/?print=print">increased</a> by only one.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The dismal state of progress in meeting the Kigali targets is not without consequences. As the Deputy Chairperson of the AU Commission pointed out in her address to the opening of the 50<sup>th</sup> ordinary session of the Permanent Representatives Committee (PRC) of the AU on 9 June 2025, apart from perpetuating heavy reliance on external funding and thereby deferring the ambition of ownership, the funding challenge significantly ‘constrained the AUC’s capacity to effectively implement the decisions of the Policy Organs and strategic priorities.’ Additionally, this funding constraint, Haddadi pointed out, ‘has significantly hindered the effective implementation of security and safety standards.’</p>
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				</div></div></div></div><figcaption>AU Commission Deputy Chairperson, Selma Malika Haddadi, while opening the 50th session of the PRC on 9 June 2025 </figcaption></div></div></div></div></div></div><script id="script-row-unique-31" data-row="script-row-unique-31" type="text/javascript" class="vc_controls">UNCODE.initRow(document.getElementById("row-unique-31"));</script></div></div></div><div data-parent="true" class="vc_row row-container" id="row-unique-32"><div class="row one-top-padding one-bottom-padding one-h-padding limit-width row-parent"><div class="wpb_row row-inner"><div class="wpb_column pos-top pos-center align_left column_parent col-lg-12 single-internal-gutter"><div class="uncol style-light"  ><div class="uncoltable"><div class="uncell no-block-padding" ><div class="uncont" ><div class="uncode_text_column" ></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In addition to the adverse impacts of the funding challenges to AU’s mandate, Kaberuka’s engagements took place against the backdrop of <a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/decisions/46188-Assembly_Decisions_31_March_E.pdf">decisions</a> adopted by the AU Assembly at its 39<sup>th</sup> Ordinary Session on financing the Union. The Assembly adopted several key measures aimed at strengthening the Union’s financial sustainability. Among others, it:</p>
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<li>Requested the High Representative for Financing the Union, with the support of the Commission, to undertake further consultations with Member States to strengthen consensus on key strategic financing issues.</li>
<li>Requested the High Representative to expedite consultations on progress made in the overall financing of the Union.</li>
<li>Directed the Executive Council to convene an Extra-Ordinary Session, bringing together Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Ministers of Finance of Member States to strengthen the Financing of the Union and the Peace Fund, in line with Decision Assembly/AU/Dec.687 (XXX) of January 2018, not later than November 2026.</li>
<li>Requested the AU High Representative for Financing the Union to present a report to the above-mentioned Extraordinary Session of the Executive Council.</li>
<li>Decided to leverage internal financial resources and the support of African Financial Institutions to complement Member States’ contributions in financing the priority programmes of Agenda 2063.</li>
<li>Directed the Executive Council to invite Chief Executive Officers of African Financial Institutions to participate in the Extraordinary Session to consider funding modalities for the priority programmes of Agenda 2063.</li>
<li>Requested the Chairperson of the Commission and the AU High Representative for Financing, in close consultation with the Bureau of the Assembly, the PSC and the three African Members of the UN Security Council (A3+), to re-engage and advocate for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023) on predictable and sustainable financing for AU-led Peace Support Operations (PSOs).</li>
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<p style="text-align: justify;">It remains to be seen if this upcoming executive council extraordinary session will adopt a decision that fundamentally changes the current funding trajectory of the AU.</p>
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</div><p>The post <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org/african-unions-financing-envoy-calls-for-financing-sovereignty-as-au-plans-an-extraordinary-ministerial-session/">African Union’s financing envoy calls for financing sovereignty as AU plans an extraordinary ministerial session</a> appeared first on <a href="https://amaniafrica-et.org">Amani Africa</a>.</p>
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