Tomorrow (11 April), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to convene for its 1273^rd meeting for an ‘Update on the Status of the Operations of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).’

The meeting will begin with opening remarks by Rebecca Amuge Otengo, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Uganda to the AU and stand-in Chair of the PSC for April 2025. Thereafter the PSC will receive introductory remarks from Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS).

Tomorrow’s session came at short notice following a quick shift on the programme, as the session was initially scheduled to happen on 17 April. This session also comes as an Extra-Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Governments of the Troop Contributing Countries to AUSSOM is being organised to take place on 23 to 25 April 2025 in Entebbe, Uganda. A summit which was initially planned to take place on 15 April 2025, but following a note verbale addressed to the AU Commission on 31 March from Uganda, it had to be rescheduled.

Tomorrow’s session is expected to discuss AUSSOM’s financial status for military, police, civilian and operational components for the period January to June 2025 as well as ATMIS’s outstanding liabilities for TCCs. AUSSOM faces a critical funding challenge for the period January to June 2025, with a total cash requirement of $90.4 million to support military, police, civilian and operational components. Military costs dominate at $78.5 million, driven by troop allowances and compensation, while police and civilian components add $8.1 million and $3.3 million, respectively, and operational costs total $0.4 million. Against this backdrop, committed funding stands at $16.7 million from China, the AU Peace Fund, Japan and Korea, covering just 18.5% of the need, leaving a $73.7 million shortfall. Additionally, the liquidation ATMIS incurs of $1.7 million in liabilities, of which $1 million remains unfunded, bringing the total urgent cash requirement to $92.1 million. An unspecified pledge from the United Kingdom offers hope, but immediate action is needed to bridge this gap and ensure operational continuity. Compounding the issue, outstanding liabilities from ATMIS owed to TCCs for 2022–2024 total $93.9 million, including Uganda ($34.5 million), Kenya ($15.7 million), Ethiopia ($17.2 million), Djibouti ($8.3 million) and Burundi ($18.1 million).

Since the beginning of 2025, this will be the first meeting on AUSSOM since the official transition of the AU mission from ATMIS to AUSSOM on 1 January 2025. During its last convening, the 1253rd meeting was held on 19 December 2024 on ‘Briefing on the Situation in Somalia and Post-ATMIS Security Arrangements.’ As observed in the Monthly Digest on the PSC for December, ‘funding uncertainties remain a significant barrier to the full operationalisation of AUSSOM.’ The PSC thus stressed ‘the importance of ensuring predictable, sustainable and adequate funding for the AUSSOM, including through a dedicated funding mechanism through UN-assessed contributions in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023), as the most suitable mechanism for providing adequate, predictable and sustainable funding, in order to avoid the perennial financial challenges faced by previous Missions.’ Equally important was its appeal to the UN Security Council ‘to consider the financing option, on the hybrid application of the framework established under resolution 2719(2023), as the only practicable solution for AUSSOM, for the mission to fulfil its mandate and support the implementation of the Somalia Security Sector Development Plan (SSDP).’ When endorsing AUSSOM CONOPs and authorising the mission’s deployment under Resolution 2767, the UNSC went some distance towards positively responding to this request of the PSC. It thus requested the UN Secretary-General to implement “the hybrid implementation” of the framework established by Resolution 2719 (2023) to AUSSOM starting from 1 July 2025, including access to United Nations assessed contributions not exceeding 75 percent of AUSSOM’s annual budget. But this is made contingent on report to be submitted to the UNSC by 1 May 2025 detailing ‘the progress made in preparations for the implementation of the framework established by Resolution 2719 to AUSSOM under the “hybrid implementation” and confirmation by the Council of ‘the request to the Secretary-General in this paragraph through a Security Council decision, taking into account the report requested in paragraph 43 to this resolution, by 15 May 2025.’

It is to be recalled that the US abstained from Resolution 2767. With the Trump administration’s firm stand on cutting down costs and withdrawing from UN entities, the door that Resolution 2767 opened for applying 2719 to AUSSOM under the hybrid implementation no longer seems open. Unless conditions change and the Trump administration shows willingness to support the application of 2719 to AUSSOM on the basis of Resolution 2767, AUSSOM would face an even bleaker financial future beyond June 2025. As such and ahead of the summit of AUSSOM troop contributing countries one of the issues expected to feature during tomorrow’s session is whether there is a plan b regarding the financing of AUSSOM outside of the application of 2719 and what the implications of the absence of any such viable alternative plan for the sustainability of the mission post June 2025.

Tomorrow’s session would provide an opportunity for the PSC to assess the preparations for putting in place the report requested under Resolution 2767. It is expected that the AU Commission will provide an update in this respect. The PSC may also receive update on its request to the Commission to ‘draw up a roadmap, in collaboration with the UN for resource mobilisation to fill the funding gap of 25% for AUSSOM as directed by resolution 2719, including the possibility of convening a pledging conference…’ and ‘to present the AUSSOM Budget to the PSC for consideration and onward transmission following due process through the PRC Sub-Committee on General Supervision and Coordination on Budgetary, Financial and Administrative Matters (GSCBFM) and F-15 Technical Experts in order to use part of the interest accrued from the AU Peace Fund investment and the Crisis Reserve Facility (CRF) to contribute to the financing of the AUSSOM in line with paragraph 11, of Communique [PSC/PR/COMM. 1236 (2024)] adopted at the 1236^th PSC meeting held on 22 October 2024.’

What also makes this consideration of the financial uncertainties of AUSSOM pressing is the recent escalation of the threat that Al-Shabaab poses ’s persistent threat, with the group adapting through asymmetric warfare and maintaining control over parts of southern Somalia. The mission’s success and effectiveness hinge on the SSF’s ability to hold territory, which faced setbacks in recent months. Geopolitical rivalries and Somalia’s lack of political consensus continue to complicate AUSSOM’s operations. There has been skepticism as the mission has been criticised as inheriting ATMIS’s unresolved issues, including limited mobility and logistical constraints.

The expected outcome of the session is a summary record.  The PSC is likely to express grave concern over the continued threat posed by Al Shabaab to peace and security in Somalia and the region and condemn all the attacks against Somali security forces and ATMIS forces. It is expected to encourage all Somali political stakeholders to prioritise the country’s national interests and immediately resume inclusive dialogue on all outstanding national issues through the framework of the National Consultative Council (NCC). The council may also reiterate its request for the AU Commission to continue extensive engagements with strategic partners and potential new donors to ensure adequate, predictable and sustainable funding and other forms of support for the AUSSOM. It may encourage the AU Commission working in consultation with Somalia and TCCs as well as interested stakeholders such as EU to work on a plan B in the highly likelihood of the UNSC declining to adopt a decision authorising the use of UN-assessed contributions under Resolution 2719. The PSC may also call on the AU Commission to present options regarding the various scenarios on the funding of AUSSOM in order to enable the PSC to make informed decisions.