Consideration of Mid-year report of the Chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa

Consideration of Mid-year report of the Chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa

Date | 31 July 2023

Tomorrow (31 July), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1165th session to consider the mid-year report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa as one of its agenda items.

The session opens with the opening remarks of the Permanent Representative of Senegal to the AU and the Chairperson of the PSC for the month of July, Mohamed Lamine Thiaw. The Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to present the half year report. The representatives of Member States that held elections in the first half of 2023, namely Benin, Djibouti, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone are expected to make statements.

The Chairperson’s mid-year report on elections in Africa is in line with the PSC’s decision at its 424th session of March 2014 to receive regular briefings on national elections in Africa. The last time the Chairperson presented the half year report was during PSC’s 1132nd session in January of this year, covering elections conducted between July and December 2022 and outlooks for 2023. Tomorrow’s briefing is expected to provide updates on the outcomes of elections conducted in the first half of 2023 (January to June) and preview of upcoming elections that are expected to take place in the second half of 2023. It is also expected to reflect on some of the key trends observed in the continent’s electoral and political governance during the period under review.

The review of elections that took place during the last six months will cover the six elections that were organized during this period. Nigeria and Sierra Leone held general elections while Benin, Djibouti, Mauritania, and Guinea Bissau organized parliamentary elections. AU deployed election observers in all these countries except Benin to assess the electoral process.

In Benin’s parliamentary election, which was held on 8 January, the opposition won 28 seats in the 109-seat parliament. This marked the return of the opposition into the parliament after a four-year of absence, which bodes well to the country’s democratic trajectory. On 24 February, Djibouti held its parliamentary election with the ruling coalition amassing 94 percent of the vote. AU’s observers characterized the election as ‘effective, peaceful and orderly’, an election which the main opposition boycotted calling it a ‘sham’.

The most anticipated election during the review period was perhaps the 25 February Nigeria’s general election. According to AU’s preliminary statement, the election was ‘crucial in consolidating democracy, peace and stability’ in the country despite that the election was held in a challenging economic, operational and security context. Bola Tinubu of the ruling All progressives Congress (APC) party was declared winner, though the two main opposition leaders (Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party) filed separate petitions to challenge the outcome of the election citing irregularities. With an overall turnout of 29 % of voters, it is reported that it is the lowest in Nigeria’s democratic history. While the introduction of digital technologies for voter verification and electronic transmission of result forms was welcomed as a critical measure to enhance credibility of the electoral process, it did not function as promised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). According to the report of one of the local observer groups, together with poor communication by INEC, incidents of violence meant to influence the electoral process and allegations of manipulation during collation of votes, the failure of technology reduced from the level of confidence that the elections were expected to garner from the public.

In the parliamentary and local elections held on 13 May in Mauritania, the EI Insaf ruling party registered a sweeping victory, grabbing 107 of 176 seats in the National Assembly, despite complaint from the opposition about rigging. The country is expected to conduct a presidential election in the coming year.

In Guinea Bissau, a coalition of opposition groups, led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), won majority of the seats in the parliament, picking up 54 of the 102 seats. The conduct of the 4 June parliamentary election in a peaceful climate and the concession of defeat by the ruling party contributes positively to the democratization process in a country that has been experiencing political turmoil, including the February 2022 coup attempt and the dissolution of the parliament in May of the same year, and the challenge of organized crime involving drug trafficking.

On the other hand, Sierra Leone’s 24 June multi-tier elections (presidential, parliamentary, and local elections) were marred by ‘politically motivated violence spurred by the general mistrust between the two main political parties’, the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and the All-People’s Congress (APC), according to AU observers. The incumbent President Julius Maada Bio of the SLPP was declared winner with more than 56 percent of the votes – a result rejected by the main rival Samura Kamara. Claiming ‘glaring irregularities’, APC announced its decision not to participate in the governance structure of the country in addition to calling for a rerun of the election.

Map: 2023 African election calendar
Map: 2023 African election calendar

In relation to election outlook for the second half of 2023, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Madagascar, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Liberia, Togo, and Eswatini are among the countries that are expected to organize presidential and/or parliamentary elections. Although Libyan Government indicated readiness to organize general elections (originally scheduled for December 2021) in 2023, it is not clear whether this could happen. Rwanda’s parliamentary election, which was slated for September 2023 is now rescheduled for next year.

Zimbabweans will go to the polls on 23 August to elect their president and members of both houses of the Parliament, with 2 October scheduled for runoff if required. The incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa of the ruling ZANU-PF party will face his main contender, Nelson Chamisa of Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC), who finished second during the 2018 presidential election. Ensuring even playing field for political parties and creating a peaceful environment will remain key for credible elections in Zimbabwe.

26 August is set for Gabon’s general elections where the incumbent President Ali Bongo will seek a third term, facing 14 other presidential candidates. It is to be recalled that in April of this year, the parliament voted to amend the constitution that reduced presidential term from seven to five years and turned the presidential election into a single round.

Madagascar will conduct the first round of the presidential election on 9 November while the second round is expected to take place on 20 December, if required.

DRC is also gearing up for the December 2023 general elections amidst extremely difficult security context, which indeed remains one of the biggest threats to the credibility of the polls. As elections campaign are expected to heat up in the coming months, it is also important to ensure that such campaigns do not escalate tension with neighbouring countries, notably Rwanda. Liberians will also head to the polls in October to elect their next president as well as members of their parliament.

Togo and Eswatini will hold their parliamentary elections in the second half of the year. The timeline for Togo’s election is not confirmed yet, but Eswatini is set to conduct its election in September, which will be interesting to watch as it is going to take place at the backdrop of rising political tension.

Meanwhile, Mali organized a constitutional referendum on 18 June, which was approved overwhelmingly with 97 percent of the vote. The referendum is considered as a critical step towards the 24 February 2024 election and a return to civilian rule, but some critics raises their concern that the new constitution strengthens the role of the President. Although Mali slatted October and November 2023 for the first and second rounds of parliamentary elections, it appears that the timelines are likely to be revised. On the other hand, CAR went ahead with the controversial constitutional referendum on 30 July while suspending the preparations for local elections (the first since 1988), initially scheduled for July, until September of this year. If approved, the new constitution will remove the two-term limit and clear the deck for the incumbent President Faustin Touadera to seek re-election in 2025 for a third-term. This requires the attention of the PSC as the third term bid through contested amendment of constitutional clause on presidential term limits is contrary to the position the AU seeks to advance on third termism as outlined in the Accra Declaration and may trigger instability and worsen the already fragile situation in this country.

The expected outcome of the session is a communique. PSC is expected to adopt the report of the chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa for the period of January-June 2023 and the outlook for second half of the year (July-December 2023). It may congratulate those Member States that successfully conducted elections during the first half of the year while urging them to work on aspects of the electoral process that led to contestations. With respect to AU’s support to Member States, it may urge the Commission to regularly deploy its initiative of the ‘Return Visit’ to make sure that the recommendations of its election observer missions are implemented. In relation to those Member States preparing to conduct their elections in the second half of the year, PSC may urge them to put their utmost efforts towards ensuring the conduct of credible elections in accordance with the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. In light of what transpired in Niger, PSC may take the opportunity to strongly condemn the coup in the country and echo the call of the Chairperson of the AU Commission for the ‘immediate and unconditional return of the felon soldiers to their barracks’. PSC may also reiterate its request for the Commission to expedite the operationalization of the PSC Sub-Committee on Sanctions pursuant to the Declaration adopted by the 16th Extraordinary Session of the AU Summit held in May 2022 in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. As constitutional manipulations have continued to extend term limits, PSC may find it necessary to re-emphasize the need for the AU to finalize and adopt the AU guidelines on the amendment of constitutions in Africa to guide constitutional amendment processes adhere to formal rules and procedures and ensure that such amendments are outcomes of national consensus.


Consideration of the Half Year Report on Elections in Africa: July to December 2022 and outlook for 2023

Consideration of the Half Year Report on Elections in Africa: July to December 2022 and outlook for 2023

Date | 20 January 2023

Tomorrow (20 January), African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1132nd session to consider AU Commission Chairperson’s half year report on elections in Africa.

The Permanent Representative of Uganda to the AU and the stand-in Chair of the PSC for the month of January, Rebeca Amuge Otengo, will deliver opening remarks while the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to present the half year report. The representatives of Member States that held elections in the second half of 2022 and those that are expected to organize elections in the first half of 2023 are expected to deliver statements. The Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) are also among the speakers during tomorrow’s session.

The Chairperson’s half year report on elections in Africa is in line with the PSC’s decision at its 424th session of March 2014 to receive quarterly briefings on national elections in Africa. Since then, PSC has been receiving the report on a regular basis – twice a year since recent times. The last time the Chairperson presented his half year report was during PSC’s 1096th session in August last year, covering elections conducted between January and June 2022. Tomorrow’s briefing is expected to provide updates on the outcomes of elections conducted in the second half of 2022 (July to December) as well as preview of upcoming elections that are expected to take place in the first half of 2023. In addition, the report is expected to reflect on some of the key trends observed in the continent’s electoral and political governance.

Between July and December 2022, eight Member States organized presidential and parliamentary elections. Kenya, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea held general elections while Lesotho, Republic of Congo, Sao Tome and Principe, and Senegal organized parliamentary elections. On the other hand, Tunisia organized a constitutional referendum on 25 July 2022, followed by parliamentary elections in December. AU deployed election observation mission (EOM) in all these countries except for Sao Tome and Principe to assess the electoral process. AU’s newly introduced integrated post-election preventive diplomacy and mediation approach was also employed in the context of Kenya’s election, which proved to be successful in Zambia and The Gambia in 2021.

One of the key positive trends likely to be highlighted by the Chairperson’s report is that all the elections during the reporting period were conducted in a relatively calm political atmosphere, evidencing the deepening and consolidation of democracy in the continent. The peaceful transfer of power in Kenya was particularly notable as it turned the page on its violent electoral history. One factor contributing to the peaceful conclusion of Kenya’s hotly anticipated Presidential election, held on 9 August, was the major shift in terms of candidates’ mobilization strategies where campaigns were largely issue-centred as opposed to ethnicity. Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s recourse to the judiciary over election dispute and his subsequent acceptance of the decision of the court that upheld William Ruto’s Presidential victory is not only a sign of political maturity but also contributed to stave off electoral violence in the country.

Majority of the elections under the reporting period were competitive. Oppositions made significant gains for instance in the parliamentary elections in Angola, Senegal, Sao Tome and Principe. Angola’s MPLA ruling party was declared winner in the most hotly contested 24 August general elections, but opposition (UNITA) received 44 percent of the vote to MPLA’s 51 percent. In Senegal, the President’s coalition narrowly won the 31 July legislative election with 82 seats while the opposition gained 80 seats of the national assembly’s 165. The opposition Independent Democratic Action (ADI) won Sao Tome and Principe’s 26 September legislative elections. Similarly, the newly formed opposition Revolution for Prosperity Party (RFP) won the 7 October parliamentary elections taking 56 of the 80 seats. Yet, in some context, there is a long way to go to make the elections competitive as observed in the case of Equatorial Guinea where the incumbent President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo was re-elected for a sixth term with nearly 95 percent vote.

Some Member States also leveraged technology for voter registration and transmission of results, which indeed contributed to enhance the transparency and integrity of the electoral process. A case in point is Kenya’s 9 August Presidential elections, which introduced additional voter identity verification features in the Kenyan Integrated Election Management Systems (KIEMS) kit to provide for biometric and alphanumeric identification of voters on election day. This change provided the capture and transmission of images of the duly completed presidential election results forms from the polling station to the National Tallying Centre, which made provisional results publicly accessible. Similarly, Nigeria is prepared to deploy technology from voter registration to voter accreditation and result management in the upcoming general elections, boosting public confidence over the credibility of the election. Angola also introduced diaspora voting for the first time, highlighting the importance of ensuring the participation of citizens living abroad in democratic processes.

Africa’s electoral landscape has registered considerable progress, but challenges remain. One of the main challenges observed during the reporting period has been low voter turnout as starkly manifested in the context of Tunisia’s constitutional referendum and parliamentary elections. The election in Tunisia may particularly interest members of the PSC considering the growing concern over the risk of democratic backsliding in that country. The new constitution that was put forward by the President Kais Saied for referendum is believed to provide sweeping power to the President while weakening the legislative and judicial branches of the government. The constitution was approved overwhelmingly but nearly 70 percent of Tunisians did not vote. Even more striking was the 17 December parliamentary elections (first round), witnessing a historical low turnout of 11.22 percent, according to the official figures. Sources indicate that this figure is perhaps the second lowest voter turnout ever recorded worldwide in an election since 1945. The second round is set for 20 January, but the low turnout in the first round could be seen as the harbinger of looming political crisis.

While many African countries are organizing periodic elections in accordance with their constitutions, some countries particularly those that are in political transitions have also failed to meet agreed timelines. Mali, South Sudan, and Sudan were supposed to organize elections in 2023 and complete transitions, but that could not materialize. After missing the planned 24 December 2021 general elections, agreement on alternative election timeframe is not in sight for Libyans as political impasse continued. Guinea Bissau also failed to organize its legislative elections on 18 December 2022, further complicating the political condition of the country.

In relation to election outlook for 2023, Several Member States are expected to hold presidential and/or parliamentary elections. Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Gabon are set to elect their Presidents while countries like Eswatini, Mauritania, Guinea Bissau, Djibouti, Benin are expected to conduct parliamentary elections. On the other hand, Mali is scheduled to organize constitutional referendum this March and its legislative elections around October 2023 to pave the way for the February 2024 Presidential election. Most of these countries are yet to announce the exact date for the elections. However, six of them, namely Nigeria, Benin, Djibouti, Mauritania, Guinea Bissau, and Sierra Leone will hold elections in the first half of 2023. The Chairperson’s half year report is likely to focus on Nigeria’s Presidential election as it is going to happen in few weeks – on 25 February. Bankole is expected to brief members of the PSC about Nigeria’s state of preparedness for the elections based on the report of the Special Pre-electoral Political Mission led by Phumzile MlamboNgcuka, former Deputy President of South Africa and Member of the AU Panel of the Wise, which was deployed by the Commission in November 2022.

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari will stepdown after two-terms in office, further consolidating Nigeria’s democracy and setting good lessons to the region that is experiencing resurgence of coup and third-termism. Election preparation seems on the right track with a surge of new voter registrations, particularly among the youth. In a major shift to previous elections, the upcoming election is also witnessing credible presidential candidates outside the two parties that have been ruling Nigeria since the restoration of democratic rule in 1999. But security threats and the use of technology in some parts of the country are likely to remain key challenges.

The expected outcome is a communique. PSC may congratulate those Member States that successfully conducted peaceful elections during the reporting period. It may particularly welcome the peaceful transfer of power in Kenya. PSC may take note of the evolving culture of holding of regular elections in the continent. PSC is also expected to express its concern over persisting challenges, weakening confidence in elections in delivering democratic change as evidenced, for example, by low voter turnout. PSC may highlight the imperative of addressing such challenge, particularly through undertaking inclusive national dialogue. It may call on those member States preparing to conduct their elections in the second half of the year, to put their utmost efforts towards ensuring the conduct of peaceful, fair, credible, and transparent elections in accordance with the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. PSC may commend the AU Commission for its continued efforts in supporting Member States to hold credible elections, including through the deployment of observation mission. It may also encourage Member States to implement the recommendations provided by the election observation missions to deepen democratic elections in their respective jurisdictions. In that relation, PSC may find it important to remind AU Commission on the need to continue the practice of what is called a ‘Return Visit’ of the election observer team to the country where they observed elections to follow up on the implementation of AUEOM recommendations, which was first employed in November 2021 in the context of Zambia.


Consideration of the Report of the Chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa

Consideration of the Report of the Chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa

Date | 02 August 2022

Tomorrow (02 August), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene its 1096th session to consider the report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa conducted during the first half of 2022.

Following opening remarks of the Permanent Representative of The Gambia to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Jainaba Jagne, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye is expected to make a statement and introduce the report.

The Chairperson’s report on elections in Africa is regularly submitted to the PSC in line with the Council’s request made at its 424th session to receive quarterly briefings on national elections conducted in the continent. In recent years, the report is presented twice a year. Following the report of the Chairperson on elections conducted during the second half of 2021 (July to December 2021), which was considered by the PSC at its 1062nd session convened on 31 January 2022, tomorrow’s briefing is expected to provide updates on elections conducted from January to June 2022 as well as preview of those expected to take place during the second half of 2022.

In the first half of 2022, a major milestone achieved in the conduct of elections in Africa was the finalisation of Somalia’s much delayed parliamentary and presidential elections on 15 May. It is to be recalled that Somalia’s general elections were originally agreed to commence in December 2020 but was not honoured as the then incumbent President sought to extend his term of office plunging the country into a constitutional and political turmoil. On 14 April 2022, senators and members of the parliament were sworn in and on 15 May, they voted for the president and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected as the new president of Somalia, bringing to conclusion the protracted electoral process. The peaceful handover of power from outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo to the elected incoming President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was not only a great achievement for Somalia, but also an exemplary record of democratic practice for the Horn of Africa region where such a tradition is in short supply. Despite its successful completion, the election was unfortunately marred by procedural irregularities and incidents of violence which resulted in multiple civilian casualties. Moreover, the election modality of “one-person-one-vote” incorporated in the provisional constitution could not be implemented in the election of the members of the House of the People. The 30% quota for women in parliament agreed in the September 2020 Electoral Agreement could also not be met with women constituting only 21% of elected members of the parliament. This is a notable decrease from the 24% achieved in the 2016 election, suggesting a concerning regression in efforts aimed at increasing women’s meaningful engagement and participation in politics.

The election of members of the National Assembly of The Gambia was another one of the elections that was anticipated to take place in the first half of 2022. In December 2021, Gambia successfully completed its first Presidential election since the defeat of former President Yahya Jammeh in 2016. As a test for democratic transition, the completion of the presidential election, preceded by political wrangling among various political parties and on the record of the incumbent, was an important milestone for the country. The National Assembly election was conducted against the backdrop of the presidential election and was successfully concluded on 09 April 2022. According to the statement issued by the AU Election Observation Mission (AUEOM) to Gambia on its preliminary findings, the election was conducted under a peaceful atmosphere and in an orderly manner, a standard that is becoming common in describing elections in Africa but qualitatively lower than the standards of ‘free, fair and credible’. A shortcoming noted by the AUEOM was the delay experienced in legal reforms to address gaps in the legal framework for elections, including promotion of women and youth participation through affirmative action. Indeed, the lack of such reforms has contributed to the very low participation of women – out of the 246 candidates nominated to occupy seats in the National Assembly, only 19 were women.

Mali was also among the member States anticipated in the previous report of the AU Commission Chairperson, to conduct general elections during the first half of 2022. In line with the 2020 Transition Charter of Mali, the country was set to conduct general elections on 27 February 2022, putting an end to the transition period. As highlighted in the Chairperson’s previous report, the new political dynamics, following the May 2021 coup, made the 2022 elections timeline infeasible. Based on the recommendations made at the “National Refoundation Conference”, Mali’s transition authorities decided to extend the transition period for over three years of additional period, provoking imposition of sanctions by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). After continuous diplomatic efforts and engagements between Mali’s transition leaders and ECOWAS Mediator for Mali, Goodluck Jonathan, Mali adopted a new transition timetable on 01 July which adjusts the duration of the transition to be 24 months, starting from 29 March 2022. At its 61st Ordinary Session which took place on 3 July 2022, ECOWAS lifted the economic and financial sanctions it imposed against Mali, having regard to the new transition calendar. It did however maintain Mali’s suspension from all ECOWAS decision-making bodies as well as individual sanctions imposed against specific groups and personalities.

During the second half of 2022, three key AU member States are expected to conduct elections – Angola, Kenya and Senegal. Angola is set to have its presidential and legislative elections on 24 August, with reports indicating registration of over 14 million voters expected to head to the polls. President João Lourenço, who will again be running for president, and his party, People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), will be confronting a newly formed opposition coalition, the United Patriotic Front which is led by Costa Junior of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA).

Kenya’s general elections are scheduled to take place on 09 August. While the incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta is standing down after his two terms in office and setting a good example against third-termism for the rest of the continent, the contest between Deputy President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga – now backed by current President Kenyatta – is already creating much tension. Given the country’s recent history of highly contested polls and election violence, the forthcoming elections will be among those that will require close monitoring by relevant actors including the AU. In that spirit, the AU, along with the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the East African Community (EAC), has already deployed a joint high-level pre-election assessment mission to Kenya from 14 to 21 May 2022. Following the invitation by the Kenyan Government, the AU will also be deploying an international election expert mission to observe the general elections.

Following the local elections which took place on 27 January, Senegal’s parliamentary elections were just concluded successfully on 31 July, paving the way for the 2024 presidential election. In the local elections, the presidential party conceded defeat in the capital city, Dakar as well as the southern city of Ziguinchor and confronted tougher competition at the parliamentary elections with the key opposition coalition parties having forged a deal to unite and join forces ahead of the elections. Reportedly, about 7 million voters participated in the parliamentary elections to elect 165 representatives in the National Assembly. A short-term EOM was also deployed by the AU to observe the elections and the findings of the mission are expected to feature in the report of the AU Commission Chairperson for the upcoming reporting period (second half of 2022).

The peaceful as well as credible and transparent conduct of the elections in these three countries will be critical in consolidating electoral processes and advancing democracy in the continent.

Further to the three member States, Libya and Chad are also among those States with 2022 set as their timeline for conducting elections. Libya’s general elections postponed from December 2021 still remain indefinitely postponed despite some proposals having been made with recommended timelines within 2022. The political crisis involving the contestation between the interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh and Fathi Bashagha, appointed Prime Minister by the east-based House of Representatives, punctuated by armed confrontations, continues to undermine progress. It seems most unlikely for the country to hold the elections in 2022. Chad is also expected to conduct national elections in September. However, having regard to the slow transition process, including the delays experienced in setting the date for national dialogue – finally announced to commence on 20 August – which is expected to serve as a precursor for the elections, there is a high likelihood for the transition timeline to be extended.

In addition to reflecting on elections in these and other relevant member States, the Chairperson’s report is also expected to highlight some of the key trends observed in the continent’s electoral and political governance. In that regard, tomorrow’s session is expected to pay attention to the democratic backslide recently experienced due to unconstitutional changes of government in multiple member States and the unique challenges of conducting elections in the context of countries in transition. Election related violence, electoral malpractice, and high political tensions could also be some of the concerning trends that may be highlighted.

The expected outcome of the session is a Communiqué. Council may congratulate those member States that peacefully finalised their elections during the reporting period and encourage their fortified efforts towards ensuring democratic governance in their respective countries and the continent at large. It may also note the conclusion of the protracted elections in Somalia and welcome the peaceful transfer of power from the incumbent to the newly elected President, setting an example for the Horn of Africa region. It may call on those member States preparing to conduct their elections in the second half of the year, to put their utmost efforts towards ensuring the conduct of peaceful, fair, credible and transparent elections in accordance with the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. It may also urge political parties and independent election candidates to make full use of all available legal channels to settle any election disputes that may arise and to refrain from any recourse to election-related violence and to this end urge national electoral bodies and dispute settlement mechanisms to ensure that they abide by and uphold the highest standards to safeguard the integrity of electoral processes and afford all parties reliable and trustworthy avenues for dispute settlement. Council may further commend the AU Commission for the support provided to member States which conducted elections during the reporting period and encourage its further engagement and provision of support to those member States currently preparing to organise elections during the next reporting period.


Consideration of the Report of the Chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa

Elections in Africa

Date | 31 January, 2022

Tomorrow (31 January), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is set to convene its 1062nd session to consider among its agenda items, the report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa conducted during the second half of 2021 (July to December 2021).

Following opening remarks by Permanent Representative of Ghana to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Amma Adomaa Twum-Amoah, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye is expected to make a statement. Representatives of AU member States which conducted elections during the reporting period are also expected to deliver statements.

In line with the request made at its 424th meeting to receive quarterly briefings on national elections conducted in Africa, tomorrow’s session is expected to provide updates on elections held in the continent during the second half of 2021 and provide preview of those expected to take place in 2022. The session will follow the previous briefing presented to the Council at its 1034th session where the outcomes of elections held during the period from January to June 2021 were discussed.

The countries that held elections during the reporting period on which the report of the Chairperson is expected to provide update are Cape Verde, Central African Republic (CAR), Ethiopia, Morocco, Sao Tome and Principe, The Gambia and Zambia. Only in Sao Tome and Principe, where the first round of the presidential elections could not secure a majority vote for any of the candidates, was a second round of elections were held. AU election observer mission was deployed to nearly all of these member States. During the reporting period, in addition to the deployment of short-term election observations the AU has also contributed through the provision of technical and financial support to election management bodies and other relevant actors (in The Gambia and Somalia); undertaking multidimensional needs assessment missions (to Chad, Mali and The Gambia) and deployment of preventive diplomacy missions (to Zambia and The Gambia) as indicated in the Chairperson’s report.

Somalia and Libya were the other two AU member States that were scheduled to organise and conduct both presidential and parliamentary elections in the second half of 2021. While Somalia was able to complete the election for members of the upper house of parliament (the House of the People) by mid-November 2021, the election of members of the lower house, who will in turn be in charge of electing the president jointly with members of the upper house, is still underway. As of 9 January 2022, Somalia’s leaders have reached agreement to complete the ongoing election of lower house members of parliament by 25 February 2022.

Following the signing of the 2020 Ceasefire Agreement, one of the main strides achieved in Libya was the determination of a timeline for general elections, which were scheduled to take place on 24 December 2021. A major precondition for the successful organisation of the elections was the completion of the constitutional framework and electoral laws well ahead of the agreed timeline. It is also to be recalled that at its 997th ministerial session, the PSC welcomed the agreement reached to organise the national elections and requested the AU Commission to deploy AU election observation mission to Libya. However, due to the growing disagreement over legal procedures and the delay in the finalization of list of candidates, the general elections were postponed to 2022. With the new proposed date of 24 January becoming untenable to hold elections, after consultations with presidential hopefuls the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General told reporters that it is very reasonable and possible for Libyans to cast their votes in June 2022.

Chad’s legislative elections, originally scheduled for 13 December 2020 and later postponed for 24 October 2021, were also indefinitely postponed.

Together with the delayed elections in Libya and Somalia, some fourteen AU member states are scheduled to hold presidential and/or parliamentary elections during 2022. Apart from Libya and Somalia, others that also face uncertainties about the timing of elections include Mali and Guinea. Mali’s general elections, which were scheduled for 27 February 2022, may experience delays as the transitional government has recently announced a new electoral roadmap. Given the challenging political and security context, Mali’s transition through the conduct of peaceful and democratic elections will benefit from the AU’s close follow up and timely support including through high-level engagement with relevant Malian stakeholders.

In line with the 6 months’ timetable established by the regional body Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) following Guinea’s military coup of 5 September 2021, Guinea is also expected to conduct general elections in March 2022. While Guinea’s transitional government has finalised the formation of the National Transitional Council (CNT) – the body that determines the electoral calendar, the transitional authorities have already indicated more time may be required for constitutional review and institutional reforms, which makes it unlikely for the elections to be held within the timeline established by ECOWAS.

Some of the other expected elections upcoming in 2022 include the Gambia’s legislative elections which are scheduled to take place in the first half of the year as well as Kenya’s and Angola’s general elections planned for the second half of 2022. As in the past, Kenya’s election is expected to attract particular interest, including in terms of requiring diplomatic measures to ensure that the elections are free from violence and conditions for the acceptance of the outcome of elections by candidates are created.

In addition to elaborating on the elections conducted during the reporting period and providing highlights on upcoming elections, the Chairperson’s report is also expected to capture key emerging trends in Africa’s electoral and political governance. In that regard, the winning of presidential elections in Zambia, Cape Verde, and Sao Tome and Principe, and the securing of majority parliamentary seats in Morocco by opposition parties is a noteworthy progress that may be emphasised in the report. Similarly, a notable decrease in election-related violence, increase in self-funding of elections by respective member States and improved technical management of elections are some of the positive trends that may also be highlighted. As underscored in the Chairperson’s report, there was also a significant increase in voter turnout during the reporting period which is a change from the previous report that indicated about voter apathy as trend that dominated elections in Africa. This development is also indicative of the promotion of popular participation in elections which is an important aspect of democratic processes as stressed by the PSC at its 713th session.

A rather worrying trend that may be reflected is the growing postponement or continuity of postponement of elections in multiple member States despite the commendable commitment to electoral calendars in a number of other member States. Other concerning trends that Council may be briefed about include the increase in hate speech and misinformation, inadequate public services and corruption, intense political tension and instances of election-related violence and resurgence in unconstitutional changes of government.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC may commend all those countries that concluded their elections without major problems and congratulate countries in which the opposition won elections and smooth transfer of power took place. Council may reaffirm its total rejection of unconstitutional changes of government and express its full support for the democratic will of citizens as expressed through free, fair and credible elections. The PSC may also condemn the extension of term limits through flawed constitutional processes which is also triggering popular discontent and protest and eroding the legitimacy of governments. In light of the increasing misuse of social media and the cyber space to spread misinformation specially during election periods, Council may call on member States to continuously engage their citizens by providing credible and factual information in relation to electoral processes and sensitize their citizens to increase their active and informed participation. It may also call on member States with unduly delayed elections to ensure that political actors commit to agreed electoral calendar and elections are held per such agreement to avoid the uncertainty and crisis of legitimacy that delay in the conduct of elections leads to. The Council may also welcome and commend the efforts of the PAPS Department for introducing to the AU election observation system a gender and youth balanced composition of observer missions, an Experts Advisory Panel as well as better interaction between the AU and Regional Economic Communities/ Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) in monitoring elections. Commending the AU Commission for the support provided to member States which conducted elections during the reporting period, Council may appeal to the Permanent Representatives’ Committee (PRC) to allocate increased financial resources to the AU Commission for the continued support in the continent’s electoral processes.


Consideration of the Midyear Report of the Chairperson of the Commission of the African Union on the Elections in Africa (January - June 2021)

Elections in Africa

Date | 23 September, 2021

Tomorrow (23 September) African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1034th session to consider the midyear report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on the elections in Africa.

Following the opening remarks of the PSC Chairperson of the month and Permanent Representative of Chad to the AU, Mahamat Ali Hassan, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to present the midyear report on elections held in the continent. Representatives of member States that organized elections during the period from January to June 2021 may deliver statements.

The midyear briefing is based on PSC’s request, at its 424th meeting held in March 2014, to receive quarterly briefings on national elections in Africa as part of AU efforts towards conflict prevention on the continent. Since then, the Council has been briefed by the AUC on a regular basis. This briefing follows the previous one, which took place during the 982nd meeting in February, to highlight the outcome of elections organized between January and June 2021 and provides an outlook of the elections set to take place between July and December of this year. Apart from providing reviews and outlooks of the elections, the bi-annual briefing is also expected to shed light on key trends in governance, patterns emerged in the conduct of elections, the electoral support and interventions made by the Commission, as well as policy recommendations.

From the 17 presidential and parliamentary elections on the AU calendar for 2021, 11 presidential and parliamentary elections, namely Uganda, Niger (runoff), Cote d’Ivoire, CAR, Congo, Djibouti, Benin, Chad, Cape Verde (parliamentary), Algeria, and Ethiopia) were conducted between January and June 2021. For the second half of the year, seven elections are organized or are expected to take place, which includes Sao Tome and Principe, Zambia, Morocco, Somalia, Cape Verde (presidential), The Gambia and Libya.

In relation to the governance issues in the continent, the midyear report captures four key trends: the increasing appeal for democratic dividends around the continent; the “choiceless” nature of electoral politics; voter apathy; and the persistent challenge of the concentration of power at the centre. These worrying governance trends are further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the quality of elections in the continent. The resurgence of unconstitutional change of government in Africa, which witnessed three military seizure of power this year alone, is also a clear indication of the ‘deepening democratic deficit’ that the continent is facing.

One of the positive developments witnessed in the reporting period likely to be highlighted in the report is Niger’s first-ever democratic power transfer since its independence in 1960, although the attempted coup few days before the presidential inauguration signals the fragility of the democratic gains. The other positive trend is member states ability and will to stick to their electoral calendars despite the enormous challenge posed by COVID-19 pandemic and other political and security issues. Given that the PSC (for instance during its 982nd and 713th meetings) emphasized the importance of mobilizing funds from within the continent with the view to reducing external manipulation and influence, there are encouraging trends in this regard as well. The report indicates that four of the member states that conducted elections during the reporting period ‘primarily financed’ their elections by national funds. The increasing participation of women and youth in the electoral process is another area of positive development though there are still limitations in the participation of the same as candidates.

Despite electoral progress in some member states, challenges to elections in Africa have persisted in the reporting period. Volatile security atmosphere not only dented the credibility of some of the elections but also affected voter turn out. Security threats, political tension, shrinking political space, opposition boycott, and low voter turnout have continued to be worrying trends affecting the elections in some member states. It is worth noting that elections conducted amid intense political climate and high opposition boycott are clear indications of deep-seated divides, highlighting the imperative of political dialogue to accompany elections.

Some elections including the April presidential election in Benin exhibited continued challenge of voter apathy. There is a need to address the factors behind this problem given that voter participation is one key element of credible election. It is to be recalled that the PSC, at its 713th session in August 2017, ‘urged member states to make deliberate efforts towards ensuring and promoting participation in democratic process’.

In relation to the elections that happened in third quarter of the year (covers Sao Tome and Principe, Zambia, and Morocco), of particular interest to the Council is the general elections in Zambia held last month where power has been transferred peacefully to an opposition leader after incumbent Edgar Lungu conceded defeat. The successful transfer of power is a testament to the effective electoral support provided by the AU, which deployed election observation mission to Zambia led by former President of Sierra Leone, Ernest Bai Koroma.

The PSC may also wish to discuss those elections scheduled to take place during the fourth quarter of the year, particularly in Somalia, The Gambia, and Libya. The power tussle between the Prime Minister and the President in Somalia not only risks escalation into an open conflict but also threatened to derail the Presidential election slatted for next month. In Libya, uncertainties are looming on whether the conduct of the parliamentary and presidential elections is feasible within the agreed timeline of 24 December as some of the contested issues (such as the types of elections to hold in December, a referendum on a draft constitution and qualifications to stand as candidate) remains yet unresolved. Given its history of engagement in supporting the transition in Somalia, The Gambia and Libya and the high stakes involved, it is a high time for the AU to utilize all the available tools to keep the electoral process on track.

With respect to the practice and methodology of election observation, AU has deployed short-term election observation and technical missions to all countries that organized elections during the reporting period except for Cape Verde and Algeria (on account of logistical reasons). As highlighted in the Chairperson’s report, in case of Ethiopia, AU deployed a long-term election observation mission in addition to short-term AU Election Observation Missions (AUEOMs). While positive measures have been taken to make AU observation missions more effective and efficient, one important issue worth following up for the PSC is its decision, at its 713th meeting (2017), for the establishment of monitoring and follow-up mechanisms for the implementation of the recommendations of the observation missions. The other issue is on the progress in terms of building synergies with regional mechanisms, particularly through deploying Joint High Level Political Mission (JHLPMs) and championing joint election observation missions, as stressed by the Council during its 653rd session in 2017. The joint deployment of JHLPM in The Gambia and Ghana, as well as AU and ECOWAS co-leading pre-election mission in Niger in 2020 are some of previous experiences for the Commission to build on in this regard.

The expected outcome is a communiqué. It is expected that the PSC would congratulate those member states who successfully conducted their elections during the reporting period. The Council may welcome the growing positive trend of peaceful transfers of power in some member states, notably in Niger and Zambia. However, the Council is also likely to express concerns over persisting challenges of elections including tense political climate, insecurity, opposition boycott, and low voter turnout. In this respect, the Council may encourage member states to take all the necessary steps to create conducive conditions for conducting credible, peaceful and democratic elections. On AU election observation mission, the Council is likely to echo the communique of its 713th meeting in stressing the importance for member states to ensure the implementation of the recommendations of AUEOM.

The Council may also encourage the Commission to build more synergies with regional mechanisms on election related matters, particularly through the deployment of JHLPMs as well as joint election observation missions. In relation to the upcoming elections in Somalia, the Gambia and Libya, the Council may request the Commission to use all the available tools at its disposal to support the election process in these countries, particularly through the deployment of strategic technical support to the electoral management bodies (EMBs) as well as preventive diplomacy and mediation interventions. As elections continue to be conducted within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Council may reiterate its call for member states to ‘expedite the adoption, and there after the implementation of AU Guidelines on Elections in Africa in the Context of COVID-19 pandemic and other Public Health Emergencies’ with the view to ensuring safety and security of people.


VTC Session on AU Guidelines on Elections in the context of COVID-19

Elections in Africa

Date | 29 January, 2021

Tomorrow (29 January) African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will have its 977th session on the AU guidelines on elections in the context of COVID-19 pandemic and other public health emergencies. The session is expected to take place through VTC.

Permanent Representative of the Republic of Senegal, Baye Moctar Diop, will make opening remarks in his capacity as the PSC chair of the month. The Commissioner of the Political Affairs of the AU, Minata Samate Cessouma and Director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), Dr. John Nkengasong, are also expected to brief the Council.

At its 935th meeting convened on 9 July 2020, the PSC requested the AU Commission to provide a regular briefings to the Council on elections in Africa and ‘expedite the development of guidelines for the organization of credible elections, in the context of public health emergencies and humanitarian disasters’. Tomorrow’s session provides the Council the opportunity to follow up on this request and consider ‘African Union guidelines for elections during COVID-19 and other public health emergencies’, which has been developed by the Department of Political Affairs (DPA) of the AU Commission.

In her presentation, Commissioner Samate is likely to mention the May 2020 DPA’s briefing to the Permanent Representatives Committee (PRC) of the AU on the impact of COVID-19 on elections in Africa where the PRC noted the lack of a common guiding framework for the conduct of elections in the context of COVID-19 and other public health emergencies (PHEs). It is also worth recalling that one of the recommendations that culminated from the May 2020 peer-learning consultative meeting of the African Election Management Bodies (EMBs) on Covid-19 and election in Africa, which was convened by the DPA in collaboration with the Association of African Electoral Authorities (AAEA) and EMBs Networks of Regional Economic Communities (RECs), has been for the AU to develop guideline on the issue.

The briefing may shed light on the context that necessitates the preparation of the guideline. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a dilemma to member states that on one hand they need to hold a periodic and credible election, but on the other hand, they have the responsibility to protect lives. Regular, free, fair and transparent election is a democratic imperative, which member states are required to uphold. The briefing, in this regard, is likely to make reference to the 2007 African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance as well as the 2002 OAU/AU Declaration on Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa, which clearly require member states to hold credible and regular elections as a key ingredient of democracy.

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an additional layer of challenge to the already fragile electoral process in Africa. Vibrant and democratic elections usually engage large number of people during political campaign and voting days with the potential to accelerate the spread of the virus, posing a huge health risks. This may discourage voters’ turnout, particularly those in the vulnerable brackets, with a repercussion on the credibility and inclusivity of elections, not to mention the competing priorities that governments face (upholding a democratic imperative at the same time protecting the safety of citizens). In this respect, the guideline alludes to Covid-19’s risk not only to the health of African people but also to the health of democracy.

According to the 2020 elections calendar of the DPA, national elections were slated to take place in seventeen member states. With the outbreak of the pandemic, some countries (such as Burundi, Mali, Malawi, Benin, Guinea, Ghana, Cameroon, Niger, Central Africa) decided to go ahead with the elections as originally planned amid high public risk posed by the pandemic, while others, such as Ethiopia, postponed.

Member states will continue to grapple with COVID-19 related challenges this year as well, as a dozen of African countries are set to hold national elections including Ethiopia, Chad, Libya, Somalia, and the Republic of Congo. Given the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic (particularly concerning how long it is going to last), and the potential for the occurrence of other PHEs, and as elections cannot be postponed indefinitely; it remains imperative to develop a guideline that would help adapting the electoral processes to the new circumstances of what has been referred to as the ‘new normal’. In this context, the guideline is envisaged as a blueprint for member states and EMBs to navigate their way through elections amid COVID-19 and other PHEs that may emerge in the future. As indicated in the guideline, it constitutes a non-binding continental framework for guaranteeing the holding of safe and credible elections by providing ‘a comprehensive practical tool and contextually adaptable directives for electoral administration in contexts of PHEs’.

Samate may also take the opportunity to stress that the guideline is by no means to replace national electoral laws nor is its intention to serve as a binding legislative instrument for AU, RECs or member states. The guideline, rather, clearly states that it is meant to ‘complement existing national laws, rules, regulations and procedures for conducting elections…’ and ‘reinforce the norms and instruments on election at the national, regional and continental levels.’

In her briefing, Samate is also likely to focus on the key aspects of the guideline such as: the strategic considerations for conducting or postponing elections, the implications of COVID-19/PHEs on elections and its mitigation measures, and duties and responsibilities of key stakeholders. It is worth noting that on 22 July 2020 the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR) also issued a statement on ‘Elections in Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic’ recognizing the need to ensure respect for the right to regular, free, fair and credible elections while complying with the public health measures necessary to safeguard the health and life of the public when convening elections during the pandemic.

The briefing by Nkengasong is expected to provide insights on the specific health protocols that need to be followed in the context of elections. As suggested in the draft guideline, these include ensuring observance to COVID-19 protocols (physical distancing, regular hand-washing, use of sanitizers); limiting number of people during political campaigns or civic and voter education as well as ensuring alternative modalities such as virtual platforms; increasing the number of polling centres; and providing longer and staggered voting periods.

Given the restrictions that the COVID-19 public health measures entail on various freedoms related to the holding of elections, the guideline offers guidance on key strategic considerations that should inform member state’s decision on whether to hold or postpone elections during COVID-19/PHEs, while it recognizes this as a constitutional prerogative. In this respect, Samate is likely to highlight two points in her briefing as captured in the guideline. The first is the need for member states to critically engage in assessing its specific context against the existence of enabling environments to deliver democratic, credible and peaceful elections amid COVID-19/PHEs. The second is the importance for member states to ensure that the decision either to hold or postpone elections are always outcomes of consultation, dialogue and consensus among key stakeholders. This should include, underscored in the 22 July Statement of the ACHPR, ensuring observance of applicable constitutional procedures, including judicial certification or review, as has been done, for example in the Central African Republic.

The guideline discusses at length how COVID-19/PHEs could affect the different electoral activities that fall within one of the electoral phases: the pre-election, election and post-election phases. It further suggests key mitigation measures that need be taken into account by EMBs, political parties, CSOs, and other stakeholders to ensure that the pandemic or other PHEs do not compromise the credibility of elections in Africa.

Of a particular interest to PSC in relation to the different mitigation measures could be the viability of electronic voting in the African context. Many have already flagged the risk of political backlash that rushing into electronic voting may entail in countries with no requisite infrastructure. In this connection, the WHO general guideline on election during COVID-19 makes an important caveat that ‘in the Africa setting electronic voting is still a long way to go, so election will have to be through in person voting’. While the AU guideline advices African EMBs to embrace new technology for elections, it emphasizes that national consultation, dialogue, consensus, and mutual trust among all key actors should precede the adoption of the new modality.

The briefing may also touch upon the duties and responsibilities of key stakeholders- notably AU, RECs, member states, EMBs, election observation and monitoring bodies, political parties, and civil societies- in ensuring safe and credible elections in Africa amid COVID-19/PHEs.

Nkengasong is further expected to provide update to the PSC members on the situation of Covid-19 in Africa. It is to be recalled that the Council requested Africa CDC to continue providing regular briefings on the ‘progress, trends and challenges in the fight against COVID-19 pandemic in the continent’ during its 935th session. The director is likely to highlight the recent spike of COVID-19 cases with a second wave of the pandemic hitting the continent, which is further compounded by the emergence of new COVID-19 variants. Despite the efforts to secure vaccines both within the COVAX initiative (which aims to buy and deliver to the poorest countries), an effort recently supplemented by AU’s securing 270 million vaccine doses, the Director may caution the availability of vaccines beyond those on the frontline in the short term. As such, the representative may advice member states to reinforce safety measures, lending hand in emphasizing the importance of implementing the guideline.

The expected outcome is a communique. The PSC is expected to welcome the preparation of the guideline and may wish to commend the efforts of the DPA and others involved in developing the guideline. The Council may acknowledge the importance of the guideline in providing a practical guide for member states, EMBs, civil society organizations, domestic and international observer groups, political parties and other stakeholders on how to conduct safe and credible elections within the context of COVID-19/PHEs, and may decide to adopt the guideline. The Council may further encourage member states and EMBs to give effect to the guideline by developing their own national policy on elections during COVID-19 and other PHEs that are suitable to their contexts. It may also call upon the AU commission, RECs, member states, EMBs, political parties, civil societies, think tanks, domestic and international observers and other stakeholders to engage in popularizing this guideline for its effective implementation. As holding safe and credible elections is first and foremost the responsibility of member states, the PSC may urge them to commit all the means and resources required to ensure that the enforcement of COVID-19/PHEs measures do not compromise the conduct such elections in a free, fair and credible manner.


Briefing on Elections in Africa in the Context of the COVID19 Pandemic

Elections in Africa

Date | 09 July, 2020

Tomorrow (9 July) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to hold its 935th meeting to receive a briefing on elections in Africa in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It is expected that PSC members will conduct the meeting through video teleconference. It is expected that AU Commissioner for Political Affairs Minata Samate Cessouma will brief the Council.

Since the advent of the pandemic in the continent, countries have adopted various measures to curb the spread of the COVID19 pandemic through various social distancing measures, lockdowns and declaration of state of emergency or state of disaster. The nature of the pandemic and the public health response measures are such that they directly affect electoral processes. The COVID19 measures affect not only the logistical preparation for elections but also the exercise of various rights including the convening of political meetings and rallies that are key for communicating the agenda of contesting political parties and for the electorate to express its views on its needs and be informed of the position of the candidates.

On the other hand, electoral processes by their very nature lead to the gathering of people, the convening of political meetings and the staging of rallies. As such, if not conducted with due regard to the social distancing measures, electoral processes can become the ground for the spread of COVID19 and the resultant rise in the morbidity and mortality that the virus causes.

Tomorrow’s briefing on elections will be the first one to be taking place in the context of COVID19 and presents an opportunity for considering how COVID19 affects electoral plans in Africa. It would additionally afford the opportunity to consider on whether and how elections could be held amid the pandemic and the parameters to be observed if they are to be postponed.

According to the AU calendar of elections, there are about 18 planned elections in 2020 in Africa. The Department of Political Affairs is scheduled to provide an overall update on current developments in countries that have recently concluded elections, those that are preparing to undertake elections and those that have decided to postpone elections.

The last time the PSC held a session on elections was at its 869th on 19 August 2019. In the communiqué, the PSC underlined the need for strengthened citizens participation in democratic process and it also requested the finalization of the reports of AU Election Observation Missions in a timely manner and the early planning for the deployment of the AU Election Observation Missions.

During tomorrow’s session, the PSC may assess the challenges COVID19 poses on electoral processes in Africa. More particularly, of interest to the PSC would be an overview on the challenges that have emerged due to the COVID19 pandemic and their impact on holding transparent, fair and free elections in Africa. Considering these issues affords the PSC an important opportunity to provide guidance to member states on how to manage elections in the context of COVID19. This is important in order to ensure that the holding of elections under restricted conditions or postponement of elections due to COVID19 measures would not lead to electoral disputes and instability. The elections that are expected to receive attention include the recently concluded ones in Burundi, Mali, and Malawi as well as the constitutional referendum in Guinea. The briefing may also provide an overview of upcoming elections in Ghana, Burkina Faso, Cote D’Ivoire, and postponed elections in Ethiopia and Chad. The Council may also particularly address countries such as Somalia and Central African Republic that are experiencing fragile transition and instability and are planning elections in 2020.

From the list of countries that held elections or scheduled to hold elections, it is clear that not all of them are on the same standing in terms of the sensitivity of the election for unstable contestation. This means that apart from the general guidance required on how elections may be held in all the countries, there is a need for paying particular attention to the situation of elections in countries with fragile transitions.

The briefing may highlight challenges related to restrictions on mobility. This can have negative impacts on candidates communicating with their supporters and electorates critically engaging with political parties and candidates. As the election in Mali illustrated, the other challenge is also related to the low voter turnout due to fear related to the spread of the pandemic.

The other impact is that it has adversely affected the deployment of independent observers in countries that have held elections this year. Restrictions on international travels means that the AU has not been able to deploy international observers in some of the recent elections held in the context of COVID19. One of the issues that members of the PSC may wish to get information on during the briefing is the adjustments and new changes that the Department of Political Affairs introduced in its provision of support to member states in the context of COVID19.

With respect to the various avenues taken by member states the PSC may address key elements on the processes and procedures of elections. First, for countries that have opted to hold elections, it may urge Africa CDC to develop and adhere to strict safety and public health guidelines to prevent the further spread of the virus. It will be essential for the PSC to urge member states to evaluate their capacity to hold credible and transparent elections while keeping citizens safe. Moreover, these measures have also direct effect on the level of participation of election observers. Hence, the PSC may also request member states to address challenges and provide alternative plans to fill this gap.

Second, with regards to countries that opt to postpone elections, the PSC may urge for the respect of legal processes and political consensus, to prevent instability or charges of unconstitutionality. The PSC may pronounce itself on the need to comply with established constitutional processes when opting for postponing elections. Additionally, consideration should be had for states to build consensus with all the stakeholders including electoral bodies, opposition parties and civil society actors not only to address the legitimacy deficits that may result from postponement of elections but also to ensure that postponement does not lead to political instability. Irrespective of whether member states opt to postpone or hold elections, there is also a need for ensuring that there is greater transparency by governments on their decisions and the process they use for arriving at such decision.

Also, of interest for PSC members is to receive indication from the briefing on countries expected to have highly contested elections and countries expected to hold elections in fragile transitions. These countries require particular attention not only to ensure that COVID19 does not further exacerbates an already volatile situation but also to ensure that contestations surrounding election does not undermine their efforts towards containing the virus. For example, in Malawi, the newly elected government changed the plan for the inauguration of the new president on account of reports of spike in the spread of the virus during the electoral process.

In the context of recent elections, the briefing by DPA may also highlight positive developments including the role of an independent judiciary in the democratization process of countries as demonstrated in the election in Malawi. The briefing may also present best practices that might guide countries that are planning to hold elections.

The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to address the various challenges arising from COVID19 and their effects on planned elections and the electoral process. It may in particular express concern on the negative impacts of COVID19 on holding elections in context that is free from fear and insecurity. With respect to member states that opt for proceeding with scheduled elections, the PSC may urge that they comply with the applicable standards of holding free, fair and credible elections. To this end, it may call on those states to put in place the necessary public health measures including social distancing and hygiene measures during the electoral process. For member states that opt for postponing elections, it may urge them to ensure that proper constitutional procedures are followed and close working relationship and consultations are maintained with all stakeholders in rescheduling the calendar for the elections. The PSC may call on Africa-CDC working with the Department of Political Affairs to develop guidelines on the holding of elections in the context of COVID19. It may request the AU Department of Political Affairs to adjust the provision of its support to member states to the COVID19 environment to ensure that its critical role in the democratization process through supporting electoral processes is not disrupted as a result of COVID19.


Briefing on Elections in Africa

Elections in Africa

Date | 19 August , 2019

Tomorrow (19 August) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will hold its 869th session focusing on elections in Africa. The PSC is expected to receive the Report of the AU Commission Chairperson on Elections in Africa for the period of January to December 2019. It is expected that the Department of Political Affairs will introduce the report to the PSC.

The practice of providing briefings on elections in Africa can be traced back to the Report of the Panel of the Wise entitled ‘Election-related disputes and political violence’ and the 392nd meeting of the PSC. But it was at its 424th meeting that the PSC decided to have a briefing from the Department of Political Affairs (DPA) on elections in Africa on a quarterly basis.

The last time the PSC held this session was at its 815th meeting held on 04 December 2018. From the 18 presidential and parliamentary elections on the AU calendar for 2019, tomorrow’s session is expected to offer a review of the nine presidential and parliamentary elections and one constitutional referendum held on the continent between January and June 2018. The elections expected to receive attention within this context include those held in Nigeria, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Comoros, Benin, South Africa, Malawi, Madagascar and Mauritania as well as the constitutional referendum in Egypt.

Of particular interest would be the trend that the briefing is expected to highlight in terms of not only good practice and challenges observed in conducting elections but also in terms of the monitoring of elections. This may include reference to ‘any cases of election malpractices and shortcomings’ that the communiqué of the 747th meeting of the PSC required AU Electoral Observation Mission reports to highlight for future lessons.

Some of the issues observed in a number of the elections under review include election irregularity, incidents of violence, tense political environment, low voter turnout, change of electoral calendar, uneven playing field for candidates and restrictive environment. Low voter turnout seems to be a feature of most of the elections. While the AU notes that the 2019 general elections in Nigeria registered the lowest turnout of elections held on the continent during the reporting period, there is no statistics on percentage of voter turnout for the elections in Benin. Yet, given the impact of low turnout on quality of elections and voters’ confidence over elections, there is a need for addressing the various factors leading to low voter turnout. The exception to this trend of low voter turnout is that of Guinea Bissau where the turnout of registered voters was 84.69.

Beyond and above voter turnout, issues of participation of some segments of the public particularly women and youth are also highlighted as areas requiring attention. In this respect, it was observed that in South Africa ‘only 18.5% of youth in the 18-19 age bracket registered to vote.’ The AU accordingly observed that ‘t]hese call for serious attention as a significant proportion of first-time voters were apathetic.’

The elections that witnessed tense political environment and major contestations include those in Benin, Comoros and Senegal. In all of these cases, fierce disputes resulted from the introduction of electoral legal reforms on matters of political party registration, term limits, electoral system and increased cost of candidatures. Of these, the country that registered retrogression in its electoral processes is Benin, where the AU observed not only an environment that was exclusive of opposition candidates but also violative of individual liberties. These developments highlight that there is a need for the AU to closely monitor electoral legal reforms and develop standards that should be followed in undertaking such reforms as a means of preventing electoral disputes and violence.

Claims of vote rigging have been observed in the elections in Malawi. Of interest to the PSC in this respect would be the post-election protests that followed allegations of electoral fraud.
The impact of insecurity on the electoral processes also remains as has been the case, for example, in parts of Nigeria. This remains a major issue for the upcoming election in Mali.

In terms of positive developments, Mauritania witnessed the democratic transfer of power to a new elected president, the first in the post-independence history of the country is notable.

From a perspective of election observation practice of the AU, it was noted that the AU was not able to deploy election observation mission to Madagascar. In respect to the practice and methodology of election observation, it would be of interest for the PSC to get update on developments relating to the need that various PSC outcome documents including the communiqué of its 747th session indicated in terms of enhancing the African Union Election coordination mechanisms with other relevant international missions. This includes the coordination with electoral observation missions of regional bodies.

The upcoming elections expected to take place during the third and fourth quarter of 2019 that tomorrow’s session will cover are Algeria, Botswana, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia and Tunisia. The AU has envisaged to deploy election observation mission to all the six countries.

In respect of these elections, it would be of interest for PSC members to know about how the AUC plans to engage not only in terms of deployment of election assessment and observation missions but also in terms of identifying risks of electoral disputes and preventive measures that should be adopted. In respect of early warning on such electoral disputes, the upcoming elections that may in particular be of interest are the elections in Mali (on account of the security situation in the country) and Algeria (on account of the protest events in the country).

The expected outcome of the session is a communique. It is expected to address the various issues arising from the report. It would, among others, highlight the continuing importance of elections in the democratization process of the continent, the need for improving the quality of elections including through ensuring the independent functioning of electoral management bodies and the provision of even playing field, and the importance of resolving existing crisis and conflicts as necessary condition for inclusive and credible elections. Enhancing the role of this briefing to map electoral risks for providing early warning to the PSC highlighting the measures that the AU could take for mitigating the risks through joint work of DPA and PSD would be of particular importance for the work of the PSC. To this end, the outcome could highlight the importance of holding the quarterly briefing timeously. In terms of lessons from the elections in Senegal, Comoros and Benin, the PSC may highlight the need for ensuring that electoral legal reforms follow the requirements of inclusiveness, fairness, transparency and consensus of all political forces as a measure of democratic legitimacy and preventing electoral disputes.


Briefing on Elections in Africa

Elections in Africa

Date | 04 December, 2018

Tomorrow (4 December 2018) the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union (AU) will hold a briefing session on elections in Africa. It is expected that the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Minata Samate Cessouma, will present a briefing to the PSC. The Department of Peace and Security (PSD) is also expected to make a statement.

As highlighted in the program of the month, this is a quarterly briefing. While the practice of providing briefings on elections in Africa can be traced back to the Report of the Panel of the Wise entitled ‘Election-related disputes and political violence’ and the 392nd meeting of the PSC, it was at its 424th meeting that the PSC decided to have a briefing from the Department of Political Affairs (DPA) on elections in Africa on a quarterly basis.

The last time the PSC held this session was at its 747th meeting held on 18 January 2018.

Tomorrow’s briefing is expected to offer a review of the elections held on the continent between January and November 2018. The elections expected to receive attention within this context include those held in Cameroon, eSwatini, Gabon, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Rwanda, Soa Tome and Principe and Zimbabwe. Of particular interest would be the trend that the briefing is expected to highlight in terms of not only good practice and challenges observed in conducting elections but also in terms of the monitoring of elections. This may include reference to ‘any cases of election malpractices and shortcomings’ that the communiqué of the 747th meeting of the PSC required AU Electoral Observation Mission reports to highlight for future lessons.

While some of these elections continue to reflect continuing challenges relating to credibility of elections and confidence of parties in electoral bodies, others such as Madagascar show the importance of regional and continental engagement for addressing disputes relating to the electoral process. In terms of positive developments, the peaceful transfer of power from an incumbent party to a previously opposition party through election witnessed in Sierra Leone is expected to be highlighted as being exemplary. In countries with conflicts such as Mali and Cameroon, a major issue of interest is the implication of conflicts on electoral processes.

In terms of the role of this briefing session to provide early warning on election related disputes, the upcoming elections that the briefing is expected to highlight would in particular be crucial. In this respect, the run-off presidential election in Madagascar is expected to be a major test in terms of peaceful transition of power for a country that remains under the shadow of the political crisis resulting from the 2009 unconstitutional change of government. It is to be recalled that the PSC held a session on the situation in Madagascar on 18 November. With the major actors of the 2009 crisis Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina, facing off in the run-off election, the bitter rivalry between the two have made the stakes in the run-off election higher than the first round of elections.

Another election that will receive the attention of the PSC is the presidential election expected to take place in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The issues relating to the election planned to take place on 23 December, including its timely convening as per the electoral calendar of 5 November 2017, have been subject of deliberation at the 808th session of the PSC held on 19 November. From the perspective of tomorrow’s briefing, what is of interest is an update from the DPA on the request of the PSC’s communiqué from its 808th session for the AU Commission (AUC) ‘to take all necessary measures for to dispatch an electoral observation mission, commensurate with the issues at stake in these elections.’

In terms of the elections expected to take place in the first quarter of 2019, the briefing is expected to cover the general elections in Nigeria, the presidential elections in Senegal and legislative elections in Benin. In respect of these elections, it would be of interest for PSC members to know about how the AUC plans to engage not only in terms of deployment of election assessment and observation missions but also in terms of identifying risks of electoral tensions.

From a perspective of the practice and methodology of election observation, it would be of interest for the PSC to get update on developments relating to the need that various PSC outcome documents including the communiqué of its 747th session indicated in terms of enhancing the African Union Election Observation methodology, reporting and coordination mechanisms with other relevant international missions. This includes the coordination with electoral observation missions of regional bodies.

The outcome of the session is expected to address the various issues arising from the briefing. It would, among others, highlight the continuing importance of elections in the democratization process of the continent, the need for improving the quality of elections including through ensuring the independent functioning of electoral management bodies and even playing field, and the importance of resolving existing crisis and conflicts as necessary condition for inclusive and credible elections. Enhancing the role of this briefing to map electoral risks for providing early warning to the PSC highlighting the measures that the AU could take for mitigating the risks through joint work of DPA and PSD would be of particular importance for the work of the PSC. To this end, the outcome could highlight the importance of holding the quarterly briefing timeously.


Open Session on African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance

Elections in Africa

Date | 22 August, 2018

Tomorrow (22 August) the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will have its second open session. The session will be held under the theme ‘The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance: Challenges and Prospects for Structural Prevention of Conflict’.

The meeting will receive a briefing from the Director for the Department of Political Affairs (DPA), Khabele Matlosa. The focus of the session is a thematic area for which the DPA is responsible.

The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (African Charter) was adopted on 30 January 2007 by the African Union (AU) Assembly. It came into force on 15 February 2012. It is perhaps the most comprehensive instruments of the AU that enshrines the norms, values and standards that embody the aspiration of the African Union for a democratic, inclusive and just continent. So far it is signed by 46 member states and ratified by 31.

The African Charter sits at the heart of the African Governance Architecture (AGA), a set of normative frameworks and institutions that serve as vehicle for the promoting and ensuring respect for the democratic and governance values of the AU. While a state reporting guideline that outlines the details of information that states party to the African Charter should report on regarding the measures that they have taken to realize the obligations they subscribed to under the Charter has been developed, Togo is the only member state that has submitted its initial State report on the implementation of the Charter.

The theme of this session lies at the cross section of the PSC mandate that combines security and democratic governance. Indeed, under Article 7(1)(m) the PSC is explicitly mandated to ‘follow up, within the framework of its conflict prevention responsibilities, the progress towards the promotion of democratic practices, good governance, the rule of law, protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms, respect for the sanctity of human life and international humanitarian law by member states’. Undoubtedly, the African Charter offers the PSC the best framework in the pursuit of delivering on its mandate under this provision.

It is in some ways striking that a periodic review of and systematic reflections on the implementation of this key instrument has not been made a standing agenda item in the working methods of the PSC. This is not only because the African Charter fits squarely in the mandate of the PSC but also on account of the link between the governance challenges facing many parts of the continent and the occurrence of conflict situations on the continent. Indeed, as set out in the concept note for tomorrow’s session, despite the progress registered on the continent where elections are accepted and practiced (albeit unevenly) universally, what informs the session are the worrying trends that include ‘persistence of intra-state conflicts; manipulation of constitutions by incumbents to prolong their stay in power; rampant corruption and illicit financial flows; mismanagement of diversity; militarization of politics; refusal to accept electoral results by candidates, igniting electoral violence; extreme poverty; and human rights abuses and violations.’

This session is thus meant to be ‘an opportunity for its Members and partners to deliberate on the progress and challenges for the effective implementation of ACDEG as a mechanism for structural prevention of conflict’. Apart from examining the role of various sectors of society including the media and civil society organizations, the session importantly seeks to address the role of and gaps in the Charter for structural conflict prevention.

As a point of departure in addressing the issue of the challenges facing the African Charter and its role in structural conflict prevention, it is important to underscore that there is no need for the AU to adopt any protocol to the Charter. Nearly all the issues facing the effective operationalization of the African Charter and its role in structural conflict prevention are associated with its effective institutionalization and implementation by the AU and member states.

In terms of the institutionalization of the African Charter, the first issue is the full ratification of the Charter by all AU member states. The full continental implementation of the African Charter and its promotion by the AU, including by the PSC as instrument for structural conflict prevention, requires its full ratification. Second, despite its direct relevance in the work of the PSC, the African Charter is not properly and systematically applied by the PSC. While the PSC occasionally makes reference to the African Charter, thus far this practice remains ad hoc.

Third, while the elaboration of the state reporting guidelines within the AGA framework is a crucial step in its institutionalization, the lack of submission of reports by state parties to the Charter undermines it. There is thus a need for promoting the submission of reports by states or alternatively the establishment of a mechanism for undertaking such a review. In this regard, it is worthwhile to explore the review compliance of states parties to the Charter with the provisions of the Charter within the framework of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), an innovative mechanism for review of the performance of AU member states vis-à-vis the various commitments that they have made within the framework of various AU instruments including the African Charter. Finally, there remain gaps between the AGA institutions and frameworks and the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) that supports and relies on the PSC. One aspect of this is also the finalization of the draft framework on AU and regional economic communities/mechanisms (RECs/RMs) cooperation on the implementation of the African Charter’s principles.

In terms of its implementation, the African Charter faces the same issues as other AU instruments. First, there is the issue of the domestication of the African Charter in the national legal system and its internalization in practice in the conduct of public affairs. More often than not states parties to the African Charter lack the political mind-set and the mechanisms for ensuring that the conduct of public affairs are guided by and comply with the values, ideals and requirements of the African Charter. Second, from the perspective of the role of the African Charter as structural conflict prevention instrument, it remains unclear whether the new tool on the structural vulnerability assessment of the APSA has as its major component appropriate indicators from the African Charter that serve as framework for a systematic assessment of AU member states structural weaknesses vis-à-vis democracy, elections and governance. Third, there is also the issue of the popularization of the African Charter among wider sections of the public in states parties to the Charter. In this respect, there is a need for ensuring that further attention is given to the work on enhancing public awareness of the African Charter. It is here that the AU, particularly the DPA and the AGA platform, need to establish strategic alliance with the media, civil society organizations and academic and policy research institutions as the key vehicle for promoting the Charter and building constituency at national levels for its adherence.

Fourth, one of there is also the issue effective continental enforcement mechanism. In this respect, a major challenge is the fact that the AU rule on sanctions for breach of AU norms on democratic governance is currently limited in its application to unconstitutional changes of government. The result of this practice is that if the breach of AU norms on democratic governance does not qualify to be unconstitutional change of government, the PSC does not invoke its Article 7(g) power to sanction a member states irrespective of the gravity of the breach. Fifth, the lack of clarity on the question of term limits and notably the application of Article 23 (5) on manipulation of constitutional amendments meant that contestations over third termism has increasingly become a source of political instability and in some instances conflicts.

The foregoing clearly establishes the major challenges that imped the effectiveness of the Charter. From the perspective of the role of the PSC, a major challenge is achieving consensus among its member states. At one level, there is the issue of the fact that there are PSC members that are not parties to the African Charter. Under such circumstances, it is not clear how the PSC can promote and make use of the Charter in pursuit of its mandate. More importantly, there is the perennial issue of sovereignty, which some member states tend to invoke particularly in the realm of democratic governance. Accordingly, part of the honest conversation that the concept note for the session anticipates should address is the imperative of accepting and clearly affirming the application by the PSC of the African Charter as part of the implementation of its mandate, particularly as it relates to prevention of conflicts. Instead of a protocol to the African Charter indicated in the concept note, this and the institutionalization and implementation challenges highlighted above should be the main issues that the expected outcome of the session should focus on. In this respect, apart from deliberating on the development of guidelines on the amendment of constitutions, the PSC should provide for elaboration of guidelines on the application of sanctions for major democratic governance breaches under the African Charter other than unconstitutional changes of government.

While the expected outcome of this session is a statement, in the light of the importance of the theme and its direct relevance for the mandate of the PSC the and its direct relevance for the mandate of the PSC the communiqué apart from addressing issues highlighted above can also establish the theme of this session as a standing thematic agenda of the PSC during which the PSC receives an annual report on the state of democratic governance and threats to peace and security in Africa.