Tomorrow (6 March), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene its 1263^rd session to discuss ‘Climate Change: Challenges to Peace and Security in Africa.’

Following opening remarks by Mohammed Arrouchi, Permanent Representative of Morocco to the AU and the Chairperson of the PSC for March, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to make a statement. In addition, the AU Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment may also deliver a statement. A representative of the UN may also make a statement.

The PSC last convened a session dedicated to climate change, peace, and security during its 1240^th session on 30 October 2024 to discuss the Common African Position on Climate, Peace and Security (CAP-CPS). The consultation was intended to create a shared understanding among PSC members of the intricate nexus between climate change, peace, and security in Africa while gathering feedback to refine the Common African Position. Emphasising the importance of the CAP-CPS as a guiding framework, the session highlighted the necessity for effective collaboration among the AU, regional stakeholders, national governments, and international partners. In tomorrow’s session, the PSC may follow up on progress toward finalising the CAP-CPS for timely adoption, particularly in light of upcoming international events such as the 2025 G20 Summit in South Africa and the UN Climate Conference (COP30) scheduled for 10-21 November 2025 in Belém, Brazil.

Climate change continues to pose a significant threat to regional peace, security and development. The impacts of climate change, such as forced migration, food insecurity and economic disruptions, have the potential to exacerbate existing conflicts and introduce new vulnerabilities. Floods, cyclones, droughts and other climate-related shocks continue to severely affect the African continent. The effects of climate change continue to threaten regional peace, security and development. With rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme weather events, human health, food and water security, and socio-economic development continue to be threatened. Ironically, Africa contributes just 4% of global carbon emissions despite being the continent that suffers the most from climate change. The International Rescue Committee indicated that seven of the ten countries most at risk from climate-related disasters are situated in Africa; sixteen countries are caught in the intersection of climate vulnerability and armed conflict, representing a staggering 44% of people impacted by natural disasters and 79% of those in humanitarian need. One in four of those countries are in West Africa: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria.

In 2024, the Sahel region experienced devastating floods, which resulted in significant loss of life and destruction of cropland. Nearly 400 people died in Niger, and more than 1.5 million others were affected by floods triggered by last year’s torrential rains. A further 405 were injured, and more than 200,000 households – amounting to 1,526,653 people. Still, in the same year, it was reported that the Southern Africa region experienced its worst drought in over 100 years. The 2023/24 rainy season triggered widespread drought conditions across the region, driven by the El Niño climate phenomenon of 2023–2024, which was officially declared by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in July 2023, marking the first major El Niño event since 2018–2019. This declaration followed observations of sustained warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. Concurrently, elevated temperatures exacerbated water stress, compounding challenges for regional food security.

Another important issue worth considering in tomorrow’s deliberation is climate financing. As major European donors scale back assistance and climate financing, African governments face increased pressure to invest in disaster response capacities and identify alternative funding sources. President Donald Trump’s 2025 budget proposal, on the other hand, to reduce the U.S. humanitarian aid by 42% threatens to cripple Africa’s capacity to recover from climate-driven catastrophes, including the intensified droughts, cyclones and flash floods that have displaced over 15 million people across the continent since 2023. This policy shift seeks to slash foreign aid budgets by over 90%, specifically targeting the elimination of multiyear contracts and grants that do not align with the ‘America First’ agenda. This would result in a USD 54 billion reduction in overseas development and aid programs, disproportionately impacting African nations already reeling from intensified droughts and floods linked to climate change.

It should also be recalled that one of the key outcomes of COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November 2024, was the decision to triple climate finance for developing countries, raising the annual target from USD 100 billion to USD 300 billion by 2035. Nevertheless, many African nations considered this target insufficient, as they had been pushing for a more ambitious target of USD 1.3 trillion annually. Through the adoption of the ‘New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG),’ it was decided, among other things, that ‘the new collective quantified goal on climate finance will support the implementation of developing country Parties’, inter alia, nationally determined contributions, national adaptation plans and adaptation communications, including those submitted as adaptation components of nationally determined contributions; contribute to increasing and accelerating ambition; and reflect the evolving needs and priorities of developing country Parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and have significant capacity constraints, such as the least developed countries and small island developing States.’ To this end, the urgency to enhance resilience against climate-related disasters has never been more critical. African nations must now prioritise building robust infrastructure and systems to manage and mitigate the impacts of these events. Additionally, seeking innovative funding avenues, such as public-private partnerships, regional cooperation and international collaborations, will be essential to ensure preparedness and sustainable development in the face of climate challenges.

This PSC session, therefore, aims to highlight the imperative for collaborations and coordination among security, humanitarian, development and climate actors to develop effective responsive and preventative strategies which will bolster and fortify community resilience in the face of escalating climate impacts. It is expected that the session will not only provide a shared understanding among PSC Members of the complex nexus between climate change, peace and security in Africa but also a platform for the identification of opportunities to address climate-related security risks in Africa. The PSC may also take this opportunity to reiterate its recurrent request to the Chairperson of the Commission to appoint an AU Special Envoy for climate change and security.

The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communiqué. The PSC may underline the imperative of enhanced cooperation and collaboration in advancing the Climate, peace and security nexus between and among the AU institutions, Member States, RECs/REMs and other like-minded stakeholders. In this regard, it may highlight the importance of Member States, RECs/RMs and AU partners to actively pursue integrated approaches to boost climate change resilience and to pay particular attention to prevention and further strengthening the humanitarian-development nexus, as well as to improve communication on climate change phenomena such as drought, cyclones and floods with a view to effectively ensuring disaster preparedness and risk reduction at local, national, regional and continental levels. It is also expected that the Council will underscore the importance of the AU Commission to mainstream climate change in all its activities, particularly in early warning and prevention of climate change-related violent conflicts. Additionally, the PSC may highlight the need for the AU Commission and Member States to share experiences and best practices in addressing the adverse effects of climate change and instituting holistic national planning for development that addresses climate adaptation. It may also request the Commission to expedite the finalisation of the Common African Position on Climate Change, Peace, and Security and submit it for consideration and adoption.