Consideration of the Report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on Countering Terrorism in Africa
Date | 22 October 2024
Tomorrow (23 October), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1235th session at an ambassadorial level to consider the report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on counter-terrorism. The session is envisaged to be held virtually.
Following the opening remarks by Mohamed Gad, the Permanent Representative of the Arab Republic of Egypt and Chairperson of the PSC for the month of October, the Commissioner of the Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Bankole Adeoye, will introduce the report of the Chairperson of the AUC on continental efforts in the prevention and combating of terrorism in Africa. Lallali Idriss Lakhdar, Acting Director of the Africa Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism (ACSRT) is expected to make a presentation on trends in the threat of violent extremism and terrorism on the continent which will be followed by a statement from Representative of the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) and Representative of the African Union Mechanism for Police Cooperation (AFRIPOL).
The report of the Chairperson aligns with the decision made by the Assembly (/AU/Dec.311 (XV)) during its 15th Ordinary Session in July 2010. The Assembly requested the Commission to provide regular reports on the progress of counterterrorism efforts and cooperation in Africa. Furthermore, the PSC, in its 249th session in November 2010, urged the AU Commission to submit reports and briefings on the state of terrorism in Africa, as well as the efforts of the AU, Regional Economic Communities/Mechanisms and member States to combat this issue.
The PSC last reviewed the AU Commission Chairperson’s report on counter-terrorism and related issues during its 1182nd session on 27 October 2023. The Council, based on the report of the Chairperson, highlighted troubling trends of terrorism and violent extremism on the continent including the geographical spread of terrorism across the continent, particularly in the Sahel region, alongside the rising risk of its expansion into the coastal states of West Africa. Echoing Amani Africa’s Special Report on the topic, underscored the imperative of prioritising political solutions alongside military and security interventions. It further emphasised the need for ‘context-specific interventions’ tailored to address specific security, governance, development and humanitarian needs of the affected countries and regions.
Tomorrow’s session offers the opportunity for the PSC to follow on the implementation of decisions from its previous session including: the establishment of the AU Ministerial Committee on Counter-Terrorism (AUMCCT), the operationalisation of the African Counter-Terrorism Coordination Task Force (A2CTF), activation of the PSC Sub-Committee on Counter-Terrorism, operationalisation of the Special Fund on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism and Violent Extremism in Africa, pursuant to Decision [Assembly/AU/Dec.614(XXVII)], conduct field research for purposes of gathering empirical evidence for policy response on the nexus between Transnational organised Crime (TNOC) and Terrorism and institute an annual roundtable on the alternative approaches countering terrorism and preventing violent extremism, tapping into the expertise local actors.
As pointed out in our various research outputs including our landmark special research report, Africa has experienced a major spike in not only the proliferation of conflicts involving terrorist groups but also in their impact and geographic spread. According to the African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism (ACSRT), Africa witnessed a staggering 400% increase in attacks and a 237% rise in deaths between 2012 and 2020. According to the 2024 Global Terrorism Index (GTI), for the first time in 13 years, a country other than Afghanistan or Iraq has topped the GTI, with Burkina Faso now ranked first. Mali and Niger remain among the most affected by terrorism as well. The Sahel continues to hold the status of being the epicentre of terrorism not only in Africa but also globally.
Data from multiple sources highlights three key trends in terrorism across Africa. The first is the alarming increase in the number of terrorist attacks. Nowhere is this more pronounced than in the Sahel region, where terrorism has surged dramatically over the past 15 years. The number of attacks has surged by 1,266% during 2023.
The second, equally concerning, is the rising number of fatalities resulting from these attacks. The same data source shows that deaths from attacks have skyrocketed by an astounding 2,860%. By the end of 2023, data from the Africa Centre on the Study and Research on Terrorism (ACSRT), now known as the African Union Counter Terrorism Centre (AUCTC), revealed a 99% increase in terrorist attacks and a 53% rise in terrorism-related deaths compared to the previous year. On average, the data recorded eight terrorist attacks and 43 terrorism-related deaths per day during this period.
The third trend highlights the persistence of the geographic spread of terrorism, particularly in the Sahel and the West African coastal states. In terms of regional distribution, West Africa remains the most affected region on the continent, recording 1,455 attacks resulting in 8,409 deaths in 2023. This trend persisted into the second quarter of 2024, with, data from AUCTC showing that West Africa accounted for 45% of all attacks and 62% of the total deaths in Africa. East Africa ranks second, with 688 recorded attacks leading to 3,654 deaths. In contrast, North Africa was the least affected region in 2023.
According to the latest data from the AUCTC, the five countries most affected by terrorist attacks during the second quarter of 2024 (April-June 2024) were Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Somalia, Mali, and Cameroon in decreasing order. The most active terrorist groups on the continent include Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), Al-Shabaab, Islamic State West Africa (ISWAP), Boko Haram, and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF).
While no region of the continent is spared from conflicts involving terrorist groups, apart from the dire situation in the Sahel, particularly troubling, as noted by the President of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission is the expansion of terrorism into the coastal states of West Africa, including Benin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire. Additionally, as these groups extend their reach towards the Gulf of Guinea, there is concern about a dangerous convergence of piracy and terrorism emerging.
Given the rise in the frequency and geographical spread of terrorism, it has become clear that the overreliance on hard security response measures is not delivering the expected outcomes. If anything, it has exacerbated the situation through its adverse impacts including abuses and collateral damages it inflicts on affected communities. This necessitates that the policy response achieves a shift towards enhancing and focusing on using non-security measures targeting the governance, institutional, socio-economic, environmental and development issues that create the conditions for the emergence and expansion of conflicts involving terrorist groups.
Beyond the geographic spread and growing prevalence of terrorist activities, the threat has become increasingly complex due to the interplay of geopolitics, external actors, and the breakdown of regional order in the Sahel and West Africa. Apart from the collapse of the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (FC-G5S), a subregional arrangement initially composed of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger, the three Sahelian states of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali announced their withdrawal from ECOWAS.
The other issue that the Chairperson’s report may also highlight is the phenomenon of foreign terrorist fighters, including the growing profile of ISIS in some regions. There are reports that the Islamic State’s Somalia Province has attracted attention due to reports of its global connections, including supplying funds to ISIS global networks. For terrorist groups in Somalia, the other major concern that emerged in the course of 2023/2024 is the possibility of close operational coordination, particularly between Al Shabaab and the Huthis in Yemen, who are in possession of weapons that have dramatically changed the security dynamics on the Red Sea.
As in the past, one other issue that has increasingly received attention in the Chairperson’s recent reports is the relationship between terrorism and transnational organised criminal networks. Among the terrorist groups operating in West Africa, the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimeen (JNIM), the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), and the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) are known for taking advantage of such networks including for financing their activities and the recruitment of new members. In areas with predominantly informal economies, limited state resources and presence, and pervasive corruption, terrorist groups find it easy to levy taxes with little opposition from locals. This is particularly observed in territories experiencing the insurgence of JNIM and ISWAP.
The consideration of Chairperson’s report is also expected to consider how terrorist groups operating in Africa are increasingly leveraging advanced technologies to mobilise support, recruit, undertake reconnaissance operations and carry out their attacks. Organisations such as al-Shabaab and ISWAP have adapted to the digital era by utilising a variety of tools and platforms to plan, communicate, and organise their operations. Some terrorist groups, for example, as highlighted in relation to the Lake Chad Basin region, Boko haram, have sought to use drone technology for surveillance and weapon delivery. The ISWAP for instance has increased its use of vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIED). Attention should also be paid to the risk of such actors employing cyber warfare tactics to disrupt crucial infrastructure and communication networks.
Tomorrow’s session would also serve as an opportunity for reviewing the efforts made by the AU, its Member States, and RECs/RMs to contain the spread of and enhance concerted efforts in the face of the transnational and transregional character of the threat. As it did last time, the Chairperson’s report further emphasises that the predominant responses have been of a military nature, and ongoing attacks have resulted in increased militarisation of states’ reactions.
The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to express its concern over the continuing scourge of terrorism and violent extremism. The PSC may also request member states to enhance the implementation of applicable AU instruments and Decisions, specifically the 1999 Convention on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism and the 50th OAU/AU Anniversary Solemn Declaration. Furthermore, the PSC is expected to stress the need for efforts to combat transnational organised crime, especially the proliferation of illicit arms, including through enhanced intelligence-sharing mechanisms, border management cooperation, and control. The PSC may also reiterate its previous decision on the need to address the root causes of terrorism, including poverty and marginalisation, the weak or absence of presence of the state and legitimate local governance infrastructures, which create the conditions for the emergence and expansion of terrorism. It is important to collaborate with Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) and AU Organs to build community resilience and promote long-term recovery through post-conflict reconstruction and development programs.