Today (13 October 2025), at 3:00 PM, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene an emergency session to consider the political unrest in Madagascar. This 1305th session of the PSC has been called following the escalating tensions and signs of a military coup in the wake of the widespread protests that gripped the island nation for the past few weeks.

The session will be chaired by Tebelelo Boang, Permanent Representative of Botswana to the AU and the AU PSC Chairperson for October, and will feature opening remarks from the Chairperson of the PSC. Mahmoud Youssouf, Chairperson of the AU Commission, is expected to make an introductory remark. As Madagascar is also the current chairperson of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), apart from the representative of Madagascar, who will make a statement as a concerned country, the PSC is also expected to receive a statement from SADC. During the closed segment of the session, the Representative of the Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission in Madagascar is expected to make a presentation to the PSC.

The meeting follows alarming developments in the country, where soldiers have reportedly joined mass anti-government protests, and an elite military unit has declared that it is assuming control of parts of the armed forces. The situation, described by the Malagasy presidency as an ‘attempted illegal seizure of power,’ marks one of the most serious political ruptures in Madagascar since the 2009 military-backed change of government.

News outlets reported that the current unrest was initially triggered by widespread frustration over chronic power and water outages, compounded by rising living costs, unemployment, and public disillusionment with governance. What began as localised, youth-led protests in late September quickly evolved into a nationwide movement calling for greater accountability and political reform. It attracted the support of opposition politicians. Despite the fact that President Andry Rajoelina dissolved the government and appointed a general as the Prime Minister (read as an attempt to maintain the military’s allegiance) and called for dialogue, the effort did not placate protestors who insisted on his departure from power. Tensions escalated dramatically over the weekend of 11–12 October, when members of the elite CAPSAT unit, the same corps implicated in previous coups, marched alongside demonstrators in Antananarivo and entered symbolic public spaces such as May 13 Square. Their support for the protestors, reportedly welcomed by some protesters, has blurred the line between civilian unrest and exploitation of the situation by some in the army, hence heightening fears of a potential coup.

The state’s response has been increasingly heavy-handed, with security forces employing live ammunition and tear gas to disperse demonstrators. The UN reported that over 22 people were killed, a number the government contested. Civil society groups and international media report dozens of fatalities, while hospitals in the capital struggle to treat casualties amid growing shortages. The government has justified its actions as necessary to preserve order, but its credibility has been further eroded by the visible divisions within the security establishment and by mounting accusations of repression. As part of the stabilisation measures, it may be of interest for the PSC members to call for an end to the use of excessive force by security forces and for people to exercise their rights to peaceful protest without resort to violence.

Regional and international actors, including SADC and the AU Commission, have voiced grave concern over the situation, urging restraint and respect for human rights. In a statement released on 27 September, SADC expressed deep concern over violent protests in Madagascar and offered full support and solidarity to the government and people of Madagascar, commending the government’s commitment to restoring peace and stability. The statement also called on all stakeholders to exercise calm, restraint, and engage constructively and peacefully to resolve differences in the interest of national unity and reconciliation. On 12 October, the AU Commission Chairperson issued a statement emphasising adherence to the Lomé Declaration and the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, calling on all parties to demonstrate responsibility and patriotism to preserve the country’s unity, stability, and peace within constitutional and institutional frameworks.

The crisis reveals deep-seated structural fragilities in Madagascar’s political order. It underscores the volatile nexus between socioeconomic hardship, governance deficits, and eroding civil–military boundaries. If left unchecked, the situation could slide into protracted instability, with severe implications for the broader Indian Ocean region. Already, curfews, internet restrictions, and disrupted flights point to a rapidly deteriorating security environment that could undermine Madagascar’s fragile economic recovery and displace populations toward neighbouring islands and mainland southern Africa.

For the PSC, the immediate challenge lies in containing the crisis before it hardens into a full-fledged coup or civil conflict. As such, the Council is expected to deliberate on deploying preventive diplomacy measures, including the dispatch of a high-level AU mission to engage with the government, opposition leaders, and civil society representatives. Such a mission could serve to create conditions for facilitating dialogue and facilitating reform measures for addressing the grievances of the public, particularly the youth.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC may express grave concern over the deteriorating political and security situation in Madagascar. The PSC is also expected to condemn the use of excessive force and guarantee independent investigations into the deaths of civilians. It may also call for restraint by all actors, including the need for protestors to observe rules on the right to peaceful protest. The PSC may reaffirm the AU’s zero-tolerance policy for unconstitutional changes of government. The Council may also reaffirm its support for SADC’s mediation efforts and request the AU Commission Chairperson to coordinate closely with SADC to promote a peaceful and credible electoral process. In this regard, the PSC may endorse AU-SADC-led joint mediation to bring the government, protest representatives (including youth leaders), political parties, and civil society into an urgent dialogue to address immediate grievances and to agree on a roadmap for political and socio-economic reforms and deepening democratic processes. Additionally, the PSC may call for inclusive dialogue among political actors to address grievances related to the electoral process. It may encourage the government to guarantee civic and political freedoms, including freedom of expression and assembly, in the run-up to the elections. The PSC may also call on the security forces to maintain their impartiality and restrain from actions that undermine conditions for dialogue and addressing the grievances of the public.