Tomorrow (13 November), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1245^th session to consider the Post-Election Situation in Mozambique, as an emergency session prompted by the post-election violence in Mozambique.

Following the opening remarks from Jean Léon Ngandu Ilunga, Permanent Representative of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to the African Union (AU) and Chairperson of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the AU for November 2024, Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Department will brief the Council based on AU election observation mission. The session is also expected to receive statements from Tanzania – as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Chair of the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Affairs and a representative of SADC. The Republic of Mozambique, as the country concerned, is also expected to deliver a statement.

This session is convened in response to the escalating post-election violence currently unfolding in the country. On 9 October 2024, Mozambique held its general elections to elect the president, 250 members of the Assembly and members of the 10 provincial assemblies. The election pitted the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO), which dominated the political landscape of the country for 47 years, against the historically main opposition (Mozambican National Resistance) RENAMO and the new party the Optimistic Party for the Development of Mozambique (PODEMOS), formed around dissenting FRELIMO members and support the presidential candidacy of Venâncio Mondlane, who broke away from RENAMO. PODEMOS has managed not only to change the historical domination of the two parties that fought in Mozambique’s 16-year civil war, the ruling FRELIMO and the opposition RENAMO, but also to rally significant support from the public, particularly the youth.

Following the election, there have been reports of a lack of transparency in the tabulation and counting of election results. Election observers reported incidents of ballot box stuffing, intimidation, and questionable vote counting. Mondlane claimed that he won the election based on reports of party agents and exit polls. As he and PODEMOS were planning to challenge the elections, on 19 October , Elvino Dias, Mondlane’s legal advisor, and Paulo Guambe, a spokesman for PODEMOS, were shot dead in Maputo. This was a major incident that made an already tense environment explosive, triggering protests. Pursuing a legal avenue, Mondlane filed an appeal with the Constitutional Council to challenge the results on 21 October 2024, claiming his party received 53% of the votes.  That same day, police violently dispersed a press conference and protests led by Mondlane near the site of the killings. Subsequently, Mondlane himself fled the country due to safety concerns.

On 24 October 2024, Mozambique’s National Electoral Commission (CNE) announced that the ruling FRELIMO party, with its leader, Daniel Chapo, had won the presidential election, securing a 70.67% majority. On 25 October, the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) to Mozambique issued a Press Statement stating that ‘the results announcement by the CNE has not dispelled the EU EOM’s concerns regarding the transparency of the counting and tabulation process.’ In the face of various allegations of irregularities and the killings that took place, CNE’s announcement of the results became another flashpoint. This situation precipitated weeks of widespread protests in the capital, Maputo, and other cities. Mozambican authorities imposed restrictions on internet access and blocked social media sites in an apparent attempt to curb the spread of information and organise protests.

The security forces responded to the protests with deadly force. According to medical groups, at least ten people were killed as of 29 October as a result of the excessive use of force by security forces against protestors. The confrontation between protestors and security forces has persisted into the following weeks. The latest round of protests took place on 7 November. According to Reuters, ‘the fatalities (reported in the latest round of protests on 8 November) add to at least 18 people killed in earlier protests since the 9 October poll, which the opposition claims was rigged. Some groups have given a higher toll, with Mozambique’s Centre for Democracy and Human Rights reporting 34 deaths overall.’

The post-election violence in Mozambique has triggered concerns of regional ramifications. As a result, South Africa has closed its main border with the country due to safety concerns. Zimbabwe has also reportedly closed its borders. The AU Commission Chairperson issued a statement on 21 October condemning the killing of Mr Dias and Mr Gambe and calling on the Mozambican authorities to undertake the necessary investigation and bring perpetrators to justice. Noting that he continues to closely monitor the aftermath of the conduct of the elections, the Chairperson expressed ‘deep concern of the reported cases of post-election violence and in particular the recent killings.’

It is to be recalled that the PSC undertook a field mission to the country from 28 – 31 July 2024. The mission’s general objective was to gather first-hand information on the prevailing political, security, economic and humanitarian situation in the country. Although much attention was paid to the security situation in Cabo Delgado province, the PSC Delegation was also given an update, by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, on the preparations for the general elections. From the Field Mission Report adopted by the PSC, no indication of risks of electoral challenges was recorded. The PSC availed its support with ‘the technical assistance of the AU towards the successful organisation of general elections in October, including through the deployment of an AU Election Observer Team.’

For members of the PSC, one of the key issues is how to contain the persisting post-election crisis and violence in the country. In this respect, the PSC may give consideration to deploying preventive diplomacy to Mozambique to engage the various stakeholders towards finding ways of addressing the contestation over the validity of the outcome of the 9 October elections. The various incidents of violence including the use of deadly force by security forces are also of concern for the PSC.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC may express concern over the post-election violence in Mozambique and urge security forces to exercise utmost restraint while calling disaffected members of the public to exercise their rights peacefully including through pursuing appropriate legal channels without risking the situation escalating further. The PSC may also reiterate the AU Commission Chairperson’s call for an independent investigation into the killings that took place on 19 October and the many fatalities reported since then. The PSC may also ask the AU Commission Chairperson, working closely with SADC, to deploy a robust preventive diplomacy mission to Mozambique. It may also call on the Mozambiquan authorities, concerned opposition parties and members of the public to extend full cooperation to the efforts of the AU and SADC to find a peaceful resolution to the post-election crisis and violence.

*Post Script: The plan for the session did no longer hold and the session did not proceed.