Tomorrow (19 December), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to hold its 1253^rd session at a ministerial level on the situation in Somalia and the Post-ATMIS Security Arrangements.

The session is set to commence with the opening remark of Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Djibouti and chairperson of the Peace and Security Council for December. Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs Peace and Security Department, is expected to make a statement and provide updates on the requests from the 1225^th session of the PSC. The PSC may also receive an update from Mohamed El-Amine Souef, the Special Representative of the AU Commission Chairperson for Somalia and Head of ATMIS, and Donald Kaberuka, High-Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission for the Peace Fund.

Since the last PSC meeting in October, there have been several major developments in terms of the political and security situation in Somalia, the tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, as well as the discussion around the deployment of AUSSOM, the successor mission to ATMIS whose mandate expires by the end of December. The Commission has circulated a briefing note to AUPSC members which covers these developments.

Despite the progress Somalia has been registering, the political situation in Somalia has worsened recently with rising tensions between the Federal Government and the Jubaland State following the organisation of regional elections by the latter, which saw the re-election of President Ahmed ‘Madobe’ for a third term. This followed the regional parliament’s July decision to amend the constitution and remove the term limit. In November, the Somali parliament approved the necessary bills in this regard. However, the federal government’s efforts are opposed by two federal member states, namely Puntland and Jubaland. Since January 2023, Puntland declared its intention to act independently until the finalisation of a new Somali constitution.  Jubaland also severed ties with Mogadishu following mounting tensions with the federal government. The situation subsequently led to an armed confrontation between the federal government forces and the Jubaland regional forces in Ras Kamboni, the southernmost tip of Somalia in lower Juba bordering Kenya.

In terms of the post-ATMIS security arrangements, there are two major issues that require urgent resolution to make progress in wrapping up the exit of ATMIS and rolling out the commencement of AUSSOM. The first of these concerns the funding of AUSSOM. It is to be recalled that the PSC, at its 1225th session, requested the AU Commission to hold extensive consultations with the UN, EU and all strategic partners and report back on the financing of AUSSOM. At the same time, the Security Council, pursuant to resolution 2748 adopted on 15 August, requested the UN and the AU to develop a mission design and financing options for AUSSOM and submit their recommendations by November 15. The AUPSC, through its 1238th communiqué, expressed its preference for a dedicated funding mechanism for AUSSOM through UN-assessed contributions within the framework of resolution 2719 on the financing of AU-led peace support operations, as the best option to secure sustainable funding for the mission to avoid the perennial challenges faced by AMISOM/ATMIS.

The joint UN-AU report, submitted to the UNSC on November 26, after some delay from the original 15 November deadline to allow for the finalisation of consultations, recommended a hybrid implementation of resolution 2719 to support AUSSOM. This would entail a reconfigured and rightsized UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), which will continue to be financed through UN-assessed contributions, providing logistical support to AUSSOM. Additionally, it proposed that 75 per cent of the AUSSOM troop reimbursements would be covered by UN-assessed contributions.

There is broad agreement within the Security Council on the deployment of the AUSSOM to sustain the gains in Somalia and avoid a security vacuum.  Nevertheless, there are divergent views regarding how the mission should be financed, with the US arguing that it is premature to apply resolution 2719 in the case of Somalia. In this regard, it has circulated a non-paper outlining its position on the matter, proposing a two-year bridging mechanism to allow more time to put in place the necessary conditions for the implementation of the resolution. The US has also indicated that it will consider all options, including vetoing any resolution that might prematurely trigger resolution 2719 on Somalia.

Following the submission of the UN-AU joint report, the UK, the penholder on Somalia, developed a draft text and started consulting behind the scenes. However, the initial draft text, which was considered a pre-zero draft, seemed to treat the timelines outlined in the joint AU-UN Roadmap on Resolution 2719 as preconditions rather than milestones that guide the implementation of Resolution 2719. The AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat wrote a letter to the three African members of the Security Council (A3 plus – Algeria, Mozambique and Sierra Leone, as well as Guyana) explaining the AU’s position on the matter. The EU members in the Security Council also appear to be very much supportive of the AU position given the fact that the EU has been a major financial partner for AMISOM/ATMIS for the past 17 years and wants other partners to share the burden.

The UK subsequently circulated a revised text to Council members as a zero draft, which endorses the AUPSC decision to replace ATMIS with AUSSOM and authorises the new mission for 12 months. It also requests the Secretary-General to implement, within existing resources made available by the rightsizing of UNSOS, the framework established by resolution 2719 (2023) to AUSSOM from 1 July 2025, including access to United Nations assessed contributions in line with the recommended financing option in the Joint Report. This is meant to coincide with phase 2 of the mission as envisaged in its Concept of Operations adopted by the AUPSC in August.

The UK convened the first round of negotiations on 12 December, and not surprisingly, there was major disagreement with the financing options. It did not apparently receive the support of both EU members and the US. It appears that there are also ongoing discussions behind the scenes, including at the highest levels, with the US insisting on its red lines. In this context, the UK has apparently proposed the following options for the consideration of Council members.

1. Option ‘a’ in the Joint Report: continuation of the status quo financing model.
2. Option ‘b’ in the Joint Report: funding through the framework established by resolution 2719 (2023) under a ‘two-budget’ model (i.e. applying 2719 to AUSSOM alone).
3. Option ‘c’ in the Joint Report: funding exclusively through voluntary contributions via a trust fund.
4. Funding through the framework established by resolution 2719 (2023) under a ‘one-budget’ model (i.e. applying 2719 to both AUSSOM and UNSOS).
5. Establishment of a new funding mechanism whereby the payment of a proportion of troop stipends is included as an additional category of support provided by UNSOS.
6. A subvention from the UN to the AU to pay for additional costs involved in AUSSOM.

The UK circulated a revised version of the text on 16 December, putting the relevant operative paragraphs on the financing issue in brackets for further discussion. Although the resolution’s adoption was initially scheduled for 18 December, negotiations are expected to drag on until the end of the month. Tomorrow’s ministerial session provides a particular opportunity for members to receive all relevant updates in this regard and provide the necessary guidance to the A3 plus in the Security Council to advance the common African position more forceful in the ongoing Security Council negotiations to secure a clear and unambiguous commitment on the financing of AUSSOM based on the recommendations of the joint UN-AU report.

The second issue for tomorrow’s session relates to the liquidation of ATMIS, the composition and structure of the AUSSOM, and the requisite enablers it requires. A meeting of ATMIS troop-contributing countries was convened by Somalia (instead of the AU) in Mogadishu in early December, which brought together representatives of all TCCs except Ethiopia. This meeting focused on reviewing the state of the exit of ATMIS and the requirements for transition to AUSSOM. It is to be recalled that the PSC, at its 1225th session, tasked the AU Commission to undertake consultations with TCCs, host country and other stakeholders ‘on the implications of Phase 3 drawdown of ATMIS in order to avoid any security vacuum during the transition to the AUSSOM.’

In terms of finalising preparations for AUSSOM, the PSC through its 1238^th session directed ‘Chairperson of the African Union Commission to liaise with the Federal Government of Somalia, as the host country, on the composition of the Mission.’ Since then, the Commission invited expressions of interest from all AU Member States. It has received responses from the current TCCs of ATMIS including Ethiopia and from Egypt as new contributing country. Consultations are to be held with the host country on the basis of the expression of interest the Commission received.

Considering that one of the major issues for finalising an agreement on the composition of AUSSOM is the dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somalia, during the October session, the PSC requested ‘the Chairperson of the African Union Commission working in close cooperation with the relevant Regional Economic Communities and Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs), and other stakeholders, to use all available preventive diplomacy tools to urgently find an amicable/peaceful solution to the differences between the Federal Republic of Somalia and the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.’ Earlier this month, a major positive development arose in mediating between the two countries through the facilitation of Türkiye.

Following the earlier two rounds of negotiations held at the level of Foreign Ministers, the Turkish-mediated talks between Somalia and Ethiopia recently took place in Ankara at the level of Heads of State and Government, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan facilitating the talks. The outcome was the 11 December Ankara Declaration, in which the two leaders, among other things, agreed to ‘closely work together to finalise mutually advantageous commercial arrangements and sustainable access to and from the sea under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia.’ Following the Declaration, technical discussions are expected to begin between the two countries, facilitated by Türkiye, before the end of February 2025. AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, as well as other bilateral and multilateral partners, have welcomed the breakthrough achieved during the Ankara talks. The expectation is that this will now help resolve the issue regarding the fate of Ethiopian troops in Somalia.

Tomorrow’s session comes less than two weeks before the end of the timeline for the termination of ATMIS and the start of AUSSOM. As the foregoing analysis highlights, despite the progress made thus far, there remain outstanding steps for the proper exit of ATMIS and its replacement with AUSSOM. Indications are that the need to avoid the emergence of a security vacuum and ensure a proper transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM would necessitate the adoption of a transitional timeline during which the outstanding steps for full operationalisation of AUSSOM would be concluded. The PSC has, in this respect, two options. The first option is a technical rollover for ATMIS beyond the 31 December deadline. The second option is to declare the commencement of AUSSOM starting 1 January 2025 while continuing the necessary work for finalising the operational transition of ATMIS to AUSSOM on the ground.

Both of these options, while not being ideal, have the advantage of avoiding vacuum and allowing further time to finalise the remaining tasks. Additionally, both of them have implications for funding options. In this respect, the PSC may during tomorrow’s session consider a range of options. One of the options is to affirm the funding option of the joint UN-AU report, thereby calling for the use of Resolution 2719. The second option is to use the existing funding arrangement along with the mobilisation of further funds from AU and partners to cover the costs for the transition period. The third option involves the combination of the second option and to requesting the UNSC to make a decision, as part of the resolution it is currently considering, committing to the application of 2719 at the end of the interim period during which the necessary preparations for the operationalisation of 2719 for AUSSOM will be finalised.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. It is expected that the PSC may underscore the importance of preserving the peace and security gains achieved through AMISOM and ATMIS and reiterate the commitment of the AU to support the fight against Al Shabaab. The PSC may express concern about recent security incidents between the Federal Government and Jubaland and urge that they address their differences peacefully to avoid the risk of the situation leading to security setbacks. The PSC may also welcome the Ankara Declaration that Ethiopia and Somalia adopted and urge them to build on the declaration for normalising their relations. The PSC may also note the efforts of the AU Commission in undertaking consultations and urge that these consultations are finalised for reporting to the PSC on the structure of AUSSOM. In the light of the limited time left for finalising the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM and the need for finalising outstanding tasks and steps in this respect, the PSC may decide to adjust the timelines under the AUSSOM CONOPs as adopted during its 1225^th session and call for a technical rollover of a maximum of six months. The PSC may also reaffirm its earlier decision from its 1238^th session on the use of Resolution 2719 as the main option for funding AUSSOM to ensure predictable and sustaining funding, thereby avoiding the financial crisis that afflicted ATMIS, undermining its effectiveness. While reaffirming its decision for the use of funds from the AU as outlined in the communiqué of its 1238^th session and its determination to mobilise additional funds from others, including partners, on the basis of the consultations being undertaken through Kaberuka, it may adopt the use of the current funding sources during the transitional period along with the convening of pledging conference to fill the funding shortfalls and request the UNSC firmly to clearly commit to the use of Resolution 2719 as the major source of funding of AUSSOM within the framework of the joint UN-AU report at the end of the interim period during which the necessary preparations for the operationalisation of 2719 for AUSSOM will be finalised.