In light of these requests, the session tomorrow is expected to provide the Council with an update on its request for the development and submission of the CONOPs. As such the focus of tomorrow’s session will be based on the informal session held in July and thus predominantly focus on the work done by the AU Commission in producing CONOPs based on the requests from both the PSC and UNSC. To develop the new CONOPS, it is reported that nine members from the AU Commission held a four-day consultation in Mogadishu with the Federal Government of Somali (FGS) and key partners between 14-17 July. The consultations included discussion among the senior leadership team of ATMIS officials, the FGS, representatives of ATMIS Troop-Contributing Countries (TCCs) and international partners who consist of members from the Core Security Partner Groups (CSPG). Based on the press release of the engagements in Mogadishu, the consultations covered key elements of the CONOPs and were used for informing the development of the CONOPs.

The CONOPs has 17 major parts: principles; assessment of the situation in Somalia; key assumptions; mandate; political directive; strategic end state; operational end state; exit strategy; major risks; component-specific tasks; mission composition and structure; mission phases; command, control and coordination mechanism; strategic management and control; operational and administrative processes; key performance benchmarks; and Mission support. Among the principles is AU leadership, which in an earlier version of the draft CONOPs envisaged the central role AU would play in the strategic management and oversight of the new mission. Under this, the initial draft of the CONOPs envisaged a comprehensive approach to PSOs focusing on the provision of support to security, stabilisation, and state-building processes through a multidimensional AU PSO deployment with civilian, police, and military components.

While FGS is against a multidimensional mandate that also attributes political mandate to the mission, indeed, reducing the mission’s role to only fighting and a military component leads to fragmentation and disconnect between military and other stabilisation and political processes key to the success of the mission. Such fragmentation exposes mission personnel to grave peril and undermines the effectiveness of the mission. PSC’s reflections on opposition to the multidimensionality of the mission thus require careful consideration. This can be informed by the PSC’s 1217^th session decision that the mission needs to have must be given a strong political mandate, with scope, size, posture, composition, and duration. It is also worth mentioning that the PSC’s 1217 session additionally ‘emphasised the importance of peace-building and the post-conflict reconstruction and development component to Somalia and in the mandate of the new post-ATMIS mission.’

Much of the components of the CONOPs reflect continuity. As with ATMIS, the exit strategy for the post-ATMIS mission is premised on the effective implementation of the Somalia Stabilisation and Development Plan (SSDP). More specifically, it is predicated on the achievement by Somalia Security Forces (SSF) of a level of capability for taking over security responsibility from the AU mission, the erosion of Al Shabaab’s capacity to a point where it no longer poses serious threats, and most notably the consolidation of national political cohesion and settlement and the expansion of state authority through enhanced legitimate local governance structures that deliver public services. All of these considerations depend on the capacity of first and foremost the FGS and generally the wider Somalia political and social forces to shoulder effectively their part of the responsibility much better than they have done in recent years.

In terms of composition, it is envisaged that the post-ATMIS mission will be made up of 11,911 personnel, comprising 85 civilians, 11,146 military and 680 police personnel, deployed in 4 Sectors. One of the issues for tomorrow’s session in terms of the composition of the mission is whether it will be constituted from existing troops or will be constituted with new troops and troop-contributing countries (TCCs). The FGS is advancing a position that the mission has to be new and not a re-hatting of ATMIS. It is to be recalled that the PSC hinted that the new mission may need to build on ATMIS when it stated in the communiqué of its 1217^th session that there is a need for harmonisation of the exit of ATMIS ‘with the follow-on mission, including the harmonisation of TCCs, to ensure that there is no security gap between 31 December 2024 and 1 January 2025.’ This can be realistically achieved if the nucleus of the follow-up mission is constituted by retaining ATMIS troops.

The implementation of the mission envisages three phases and pre and post-mission phases. The pre-mission phase is the transitional phase involving the completion of ATMIS phases and the parallel preparation of the reorganisation of the areas of operations and troop deployments. As such it runs for the duration of the last two phases of ATMIS, namely Phase III and Phase IV which is envisaged to conclude on 31 December 2024. In this context, the PSC may benefit from a discussion of the current progress of the ATMIS drawdown as it will influence the final composition of a new post-ATMIS Arrangement. With regards to the amalgamation of the four phases of ATMIS drawdown and the formation of new missions, the PSC’s outcome document highlighted the need for careful coordination between the exit of ATMIS and the follow-on mission that will replace it.

The other three phases are envisaged to be implemented from 01 January 2025 to 31 December 2026, 01 January 2027 to 31 December 2028 and 01 January 2029 to 31 December 2029. Accordingly, the post-ATMIS mission is expected to run for a period of four years. Then, there is a post-mission phase involving the liquidation of the mission.

Of particular strategic significance for tomorrow’s session, in addition to the details of the CONOPS, is the financing of the post-ATMIS mission. Considering the financing shortfalls that frustrated the effective functioning of ATMIS, the importance of finding predictable and sustainable funding for the mission cannot be overemphasised. It is to be recalled that in the communique of its 1217^th session, the PSC requested ‘that a dedicated funding mechanism, through UN assessed contributions in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023) …be established to guarantee the financial stability of the mission.’ The adoption of a CONOPs that has the support of all stakeholders, including the host country and members of the UNSC, will be crucial, if not a sufficient condition, for AUSSOM to be a test case for the application of 2719. In this regard, the earlier the preparatory processes are thoroughly carried out, the higher the chances for facilitating the processes for the adoption of a UN Security Council Resolution authorising UN-assessed contributions for the mission within the framework of Resolution 2719. Considering that this process may not be completed by 1 January 2025 and that the funding from UN assessed contribution may not exceed 75%, it would be of interest for PSC members to reflect on the mobilisation of funds both for the period until the finalisation of the adoption of UNSC resolution authorising UN assessed contributions (provided that no major UNSC member opposes it) and for meeting the balance beyond the 75 per cent.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to welcome the preparation and presentation of the CONOPS as per the Council’s request. The PSC may condemn the recent attacks in the Lower Shabelle region as well as the attacks on ATMIS and Somali Security Forces over the past month. On the phased drawdown of ATMIS, the PSC may also welcome the efforts by ATMIS and FGS in handing over crucial forward operating bases (FOBS) to the Somali Security Forces. However, the PSC may reiterate the need for ATMIS and the FGS to follow the revised timeline set for the third phase drawdown. The PSC may endorse the CONOPs subject to amendments and request the submission of the CONOPs to the UNSC ahead of 2 August 2024. It may press on the FGS the need for it to shoulder its part of the responsibility by ensuring the generation of forces with adequate capacities and at a number for the success of the Mission in supporting SSF and in SSF ultimately taking over full security responsibilities. Regarding sustainable funding for the post-ATMIS mission, the PSC may reiterate its previous request for the AU Commission and UN Secretariat to develop options for funding for the new mission within the framework of UN Res 2719.