Tomorrow (22 January), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene a session to consider the situation in Guinea.

The session will commence with an opening statement by the Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Jean-Léon Ngandu Ilunga, Permanent Representative of the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the AU, followed by a statement from Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS). Guinea’s representative may also deliver a statement following the closed session.

The session takes place against the backdrop of recent developments marking the formal conclusion of Guinea’s transition following the September 2021 military coup. These developments culminated in the presidential election held on 28 December 2025. The coup leader, General Mamadi Doumbouya, was declared the winner with 86.72 per cent of the vote following the proclamation of the final results by the Supreme Court on 4 January 2026, and was subsequently sworn in as President on 17 January.

In a communiqué released on 4 January, the Chairperson of the AU Commission, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, extended his ‘warmest congratulations’ to the President-elect of Guinea. He commended the Guinean people for demonstrating political maturity through peaceful participation in the electoral process, and called on the AU and the international community to assess the situation in the country with a view to lifting the sanctions imposed on Guinea. He stated that such a step would reflect the progress achieved and help create favourable conditions for the implementation of the roadmap aimed at rebuilding and modernising the state for the well-being of the Guinean people.

A similar position was reflected in the Preliminary Statement of the AU Election Observation Mission, led by former President of Burundi and member of the AU Panel of the Wise, Domitien Ndayizeye. The Mission concluded that the election was conducted in a ‘peaceful, orderly and credible environment, consistent with relevant international standards and the national legal framework.’ On this basis, it recommended that the AU consider lifting the sanctions imposed on Guinea as a gesture of increased solidarity, to encourage the acceleration and successful completion of structural reforms, support national reconciliation, and create a conducive environment for forthcoming elections as drivers of social stabilisation and democratic consolidation.

Tomorrow’s session thus unfolds in the context of these calls by the Chairperson of the Commission and the AU Election Observation Mission for the lifting of the sanctions imposed by the PSC at its 1030th session of 10 September 2021, following the unconstitutional change of government in the country. Mirroring the approach taken in the case of Gabon—where suspension was lifted after a presidential election despite its inconsistency with the AU’s anti-coup norm barring coup perpetrators from contesting elections—the PSC is expected to lift the sanctions and bring Guinea back into the AU fold.

Guinea was suspended by the PSC on 10 September 2021 from participation in all AU activities following the military coup of 5 September 2021 led by the current President, General Mamadi Doumbouya. Since then, the political transition in the country experienced delays, notwithstanding the two-year transition period agreed between Guinea and the regional bloc, ECOWAS, in October 2022. However, in 2025, Guinea took steps to complete the political transition.

A constitutional referendum was held on 21 September 2025, laying the foundation for the entry into force of a new Constitution adopted by the people and promulgated on 26 September. The Constitution amended the legal framework to allow members of the ruling military authorities to stand as candidates and extended the presidential term to seven years, renewable once. A new Electoral Code was also adopted and promulgated on 27 September 2025. On 28 December, Guinea organised the presidential election, a key milestone in the political transition and a major step toward the restoration of constitutional order in the country.

The PSC conducted a field mission to Guinea on 30 and 31 May 2025, during the chairship of Sierra Leone, to encourage the authorities to complete the transition. During the mission, it is recalled that the Guinean authorities requested that the AU consider lifting sanctions following the constitutional referendum in September, in order to facilitate re-engagement with the international community and access to vital partnerships for socioeconomic development. However, both the report of the field mission and the communiqué adopting it alluded that the conduct of the presidential election in December—rather than the constitutional referendum—would mark the formal end of the transition and trigger the lifting of sanctions.

In the communiqué adopted at its 1284th session, the PSC requested the AU Commission to engage with the Guinean transition authorities to identify areas of support and provide the necessary technical and financial assistance, particularly for the constitutional referendum and the preparation of the general elections scheduled for December. In follow-up to this request, the Commission deployed a short-term Election Observation Mission to Guinea from 20 December 2025 to 1 January 2026, composed of 62 observers and led by Mr Domitien Ndayizeye.

As PSC members prepare to consider the lifting of Guinea’s suspension, they will be confronted with the question of how to reconcile such a decision with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), which explicitly prohibits perpetrators of unconstitutional changes of government from participating in elections held to restore democratic order or from holding positions of responsibility in political institutions. This, however, is not the first time the PSC has faced this dilemma. At its 442nd session in June 2014, when lifting Egypt’s suspension, the PSC explicitly stated that the decision was taken with the ‘understanding that this does not constitute a precedent’ regarding compliance with Article 25(4) of the Charter.

More recently, in the case of Gabon, the PSC at its 1277th session held on 30 April 2025 lifted the country’s suspension following the 12 April presidential election, which resulted in the election of Brice Oligui Nguema—the leader of the August 2023 military seizure of power—without reiterating the non-precedential caveat or reaffirming the relevance of Article 25(4). This signalled a notable shift in the PSC’s approach, with growing emphasis on reintegrating countries suspended following military coups into the AU fold, even at the expense of weakening the Union’s own anti-coup norms. The prevailing sentiment within the PSC appears increasingly pragmatic and flexible, marking a departure from the AU’s declared policy of zero tolerance for unconstitutional changes of government.

Lifting Guinea’s suspension without addressing its compatibility with Article 25(4) of ACDEG would have serious implications—not only for the AU’s normative stance on unconstitutional changes of government, but also for the precedent it sets for other sanctioned contexts. It would raise fundamental questions about the applicability of Article 25(4) and the message conveyed to militaries across the continent. If those who seize power through military coups can ultimately secure legitimacy through elections endorsed by the AU, it risks incentivising unconstitutional seizures of power by altering the perceived balance between the risks and rewards of military intervention in politics.

In this context, the critical questions raised in our previous analyses of the PSC’s approach in the case of Gabon remain equally relevant to Guinea. When considering the lifting of Guinea’s suspension, the issue should not be limited to whether the completion of the electoral process constitutes the restoration of constitutional order. It should also address how the PSC intends to manage the implications of this decision in relation to Article 25(4). At a minimum, the PSC could reiterate the formulation adopted at its 442nd session, emphasising the continued relevance of Article 25(4) and clarifying that the lifting of Guinea’s suspension does not constitute a precedent for future cases.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC is likely to commend the conduct of the presidential election held on 28 December 2025 and may congratulate Mamadi Doumbouya on his election as President. In line with the calls by the Chairperson of the AU Commission and the AU Election Observation Mission, the PSC is also expected to lift Guinea’s suspension and invite the country to immediately resume participation in AU activities. However, it remains unclear whether the PSC will explicitly reaffirm the relevance of Article 25(4) of ACDEG and clarify the non-precedential nature of its decision—as it did in 2014—or whether it will follow the approach adopted in its 1277th session on Gabon, thereby tacitly tolerating a breach of this provision.