Review of the Political Transition in the Gabonese Republic
Date | 29 April 2025
Tomorrow (30 April), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to convene for its 1277th meeting to review the Political transition program of the Gabonese Republic.
The meeting will begin with opening remarks by Rebecca Amuge Otengo, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Uganda to the AU and stand-in Chair of the PSC for April 2025. Mahmoud Youssouf, Chairperson of the AU Commission, is expected to be present at the meeting to make a presentation, followed by remarks by Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS). Representatives from ECCAS and the Gabonese Republic are also expected to make statements.
Tomorrow’s meeting is being convened as an additional agenda item to the programme, as the session was not on the initial programme of work for April, having been proposed for May. This session also comes exactly two weeks after Brice Oligui Nguema, who led the coup and served as interim president, won the presidential election, by about 90 per cent of the vote. Following the 2023 coup, the country progressed with a transition roadmap, in which Gabon’s Council of Ministers, following the adoption by Gabon’s parliament of a new electoral code, set out the rules and conditions for organising elections in the country, which declared the presidential elections to take place on 12 April 2025. In addition, the Gabonese voters approved a new constitution in November 2024. The proposed new constitution introduced changes, including the establishment of presidential term limits and the elimination of the prime minister’s position.
It is to be recalled that following the mission it undertook to Gabon on 12 to 14 September 2024, the PSC held a session for considering the Report of the mission, which sought to legitimise the coup stating that ‘[t]he [Gabonese] interlocutors mentioned that the coup d’état of 30 August 2024, which they described as a ‘Liberation Coup’, was a peaceful coup with no bloodshed.’ The PSC failed to communicate the AU rule on non-eligibility of those who participated in the military seizure of power under Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. Instead, the communique of its 1241st session that considered the report of the field mission requested ‘the AU Commission to engage the Transition Authority of Gabon to identify areas of support and provide the needed technical and financial support to Gabon…’ In addition to this, the Council also requested ‘the Chairperson of the AU Commission to use his good office to engage with the leader of the Transition Authority to mediate the differences with the former President to ensure a smooth and peaceful transition in the country.’
As a follow-up to the foregoing, the AU deployed an election observation mission to Gabon. Following the election, it also welcomed the outcome of the election and expressed a congratulatory message. Tomorrow’s session comes as the presidential victory of Nguema would mark the end of the political transition in the country. The purpose of the meeting is accordingly to determine that the conclusion of the election marks the restoration of constitutional order, warranting the lifting of the suspension of Gabon.
The fact that Gabon’s military-led transitional government agreed to a transitional timeline and respected the timeline is notable. This together with the conclusion of the election on and of itself does not indicate that Gabon is witnessing a new dawn of democracy. Even then, the fact remains that the PSC determined that a coup happened in Gabon and suspended Gabon from participation in the activities of the AU. The nature of the process followed for restoring constitutional order does not vitiate or render inapplicable Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.
Even if the PSC proceeds with deciding to lift the suspension of Gabon, as it seems to be prepared to do, in the light of the outcome of its field mission, it needs to address the question of the lack of compliance with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. This is critical not just from the perspective of PSC’s credibility in the face of its policy position of zero tolerance to unconstitutional changes of government, particularly coups. It is imperative for at least two strategic considerations. The first of this is the precedent that the election of someone who led a military seizure of power sets for those involved in military usurpation of power in the other five countries with respect to the applicability of Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. The second strategic consideration is the message that such leniency in the enforcement of Article 25(4) sends to all militaries on the continent. If those who seize power through military coup can be legitimised through election that the AU endorses, why should not militaries across the continent feel that the benefits of engaging in a coup outweighs its risks and costs?
It emerges from the foregoing that the question before the PSC during tomorrow’s session is not a simple question of whether the ‘successful’ conclusion of the elections in Gabon marks the restoration of constitutional order, warranting the lifting of Gabon’s suspension. The PSC also has to address the question of the implications of the election of Brice Oligui Nguema, who led the coup and served as interim president in the face of Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. As outlined in a recent analysis, this necessitates that the PSC engages in thoughtful reflection by putting the case of Gabon in the broader context of all the countries under suspension and the applicable AU rules on unconstitutional changes of government.
The process followed thus far by the PSC and the AU in relation to the transitional process in Gabon suggests that the PSC is unlikely to consider as an option non-recognition of the outcomes of the elections that marked the end of the transitional period as representing restoration of constitutional order in Gabon. If the PSC consequently lifts the suspension of Gabon, what can and should the PSC do about the implications of this with respect to Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance? First, it should be recognised that there is a breach of Article 25(4). Second, the PSC needs to state clearly that it does not condone the breach. Third and relatedly, it needs to affirm the validity of the AU rule under Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. Fourth, the PSC also requires to state that the breach of Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance in some cases does not mean to set a precedent that overturns the application of the rule under Article 25(4) in other cases. Fifth and finally, the PSC needs to express its commitment to this provision and its application in future cases.
The expected outcome of the session is a communique. It is expected that the PSC will lift the suspension of Gabon from participating in AU activities. It remains unclear if the PSC would take account of and pronounce itself on the lack of compliance in the Gabon election process with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. At the very least, it can indicate that it stands by Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance and it does not consider any deviation from this article as negating the applicability of this provision, hence the prohibition of coups and the exclusion of coup makers from benefiting from their engagement in prohibited acts. It is worth noting that there will be a press conference by the PSC Chairperson, the AU Commission Chairperson, Gabon and the Commissioner for PAPS. It is expected that they will commend Gabon for concluding the transitional process within the agreed timeline and call on others to follow the example of Gabon in having a time-bound transitional process for restoring constitutional order.
