Briefing on the Situation in Great Lakes Region
Amani Africa
Date | 22 January, 2021
Tomorrow (22 January), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold its 974th session to receive a briefing on the situation in the Great Lakes region. Following opening remarks by the PSC Chair of the month, Baye Moctar Diop, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Senegal, Smail Chergui, AU Commissioner for Peace and Security is expected to deliver introductory statement. The Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission for the Great Lakes Region, Basile Ikouebe is also scheduled to make a presentation. Statements are also expected from representatives of the East African Community (EAC), International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) and United Nations Office to the African Union (UNOAU).
The last time the PSC convened a dedicated session on the Great Lakes region was on 10 January 2020. This session is, therefore, expected to afford PSC the opportunity to assess recent political and security developments in the region, most notably- the upsurge of armed conflicts and the national election in Central African Republic (CAR) held in December; and the persistent attacks in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the collapse of the coalition of political groups and the resulting political crisis in the DRC.
The political and security crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains to be a concern to the overall Great Lakes Region. Early in the year and over the past week, intense clashes between the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and the National Army of DRC, as well as ethnically targeted attacks by rebel forces have claimed the lives of multiple civilians, particularly in the eastern provinces of the country. Police brutality, sexual violence and kidnapping for ransom (KFR) continue unabated. The PSC is expected to consider and reflect on these concerning trends.
In DRC, the year 2020 ended with escalated political tension between the ruling coalition of President Félix Tshisekedi and Common Front for Congo (FCC) parliamentarians who stand in support of former President Joseph Khabila. Tensions sparked following President Tshisekedi’s decision to dissolve the parliamentary setting and FCC’s rejection of the decision as illegal. While the formation of a coalition government in 2019 somewhat allowed for power sharing between the newly elected President Tshisekedi and supporters of former President Khabila who won majority of seats in Parliament, the two sides still continue to have differences over major issues relating to constitutional court appointments; security arrangements; and electoral process. Council may also comment on these developments and call on relevant actors to deescalate tensions and work towards peacefully resolving differences.
It is also to be recalled that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) extended the mandate of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) for a one-year period until 20 December 2021, in its resolution adopted on 18 December 2020 (UNSC Res2556 (2020)).
The PSC may welcome this resolution, which maintains MONUSCO’s troop ceiling similar as previous year’s despite the mention of a phased drawdown under UNSC Res2502 (2019). In light of the recent political instability and continuing security challenges in DRC, UNSC’s decision to hold back on drawdown of troops was in line to the deteriorating security situation.
In addition to the political and security crisis, Council may also discuss the impacts of public health pandemic in the region, particularly DRC. The 11th Ebola outbreak in the DRC has been cause of concern in the overall region. As of early January 2021, reports have indicated 130 confirmed cases and 55 deaths in Équateur Province. Compounded by the rising cases of COVID-19 and fears of a second wave of the outbreak, possible deterioration of the humanitarian situation is likely to ensue, both in the DRC and the region at large.
Intensifying violence leading up to and following election in Central African Republic (CAR) on 27 December 2020 has also been among the most recent factors contributing to instability in the Great Lakes region. Opposition presidential candidates have contested the election, which was held in volatile circumstances. Despite such claims, the Constitutional Court has declared the re-election of President Touadéra on 18 January, granting him additional 5 years in office.
The violence, which unfolded following the election, has also led to mass displacement of civilians who continue to flee the situation. Over the past week alone, nearly 60,000 individuals have fled the country, most heading towards the DRC. In addition to those leaving CAR, nearly as many people are internally displaced – reportedly around 58,000 persons. In addition to the violence which erupted following 27 December’s election, these displacements are also attributable to the nationwide offensive attack perpetrated by the newly formed coalition of armed groups – the so-called ‘Patriots for Change’ – during the month leading up to the election. In addition to displacing a total estimate of over 100,000 people, these attacks have also prevented thousands of citizens from voting. Having regard to these developments and the understandable fear of return to a full-blown war in the country, the PSC may call on all relevant parties to immediately cease violence and refrain from considering military options.
Tomorrow’s session will also be an opportunity for the PSC to follow up on its 936th session decision, which authorized the deployment of the AU Military Observers Mission to the Central African Republic (MOUACA) for the period from 1 September 2020 to 31 October 2022. The PSC is yet to receive a briefing on the operationalization of MOUACA.
The political situation in Burundi has shown considerable improvement over the past year. At its 4 December 2020 meeting, it is to be recalled that the UNSC has struck off Burundi from its political agenda having regard to the peaceful nature of the 2020 elections. The PSC may reflect on this development and its contribution to the overall peace and security situation in the Great Lakes region.
The circumstances under which the Ugandan general elections of 14 January 2021 took place may also be of interest to Council. Reports have indicated that the elections were conducted amid violence and allegations of fraud. While the incumbent President Yoweri Museveni has been declared to win re-election, the PSC may advice all relevant parties to take necessary measures as to ensure contestations of the result do not lead to post-election crisis in the country. The EAC may also brief Council on its findings in relation to the election process in Uganda.
While these political and security challenges persist, Council may also take note of some of the positive developments in the region. In particular, the notable decrease in violence in South Sudan and the efforts to repatriate South Sudanese refugees has been a great achievement witnessed in 2020, in addition to the successful formation of the Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU). Moreover, despite recent political tensions, DRC has remained relatively stable for most of 2020 in addition to showing significant improvement in its relationship with regional and international actors. The commitment shown by Member States to resolve their differences through diplomatic means and regional mechanisms can also be regarded as one of the positive developments seen. For example, the diplomatic resolution of the border dispute between DRC and Zambia as well as the commitment shown by Rwanda and Uganda to normalise their relationship through the good offices of Angola and DRC are encouraging.
In addition to these country specific situations, the PSC may also follow up on the progress obtained in the implementation of the 2013 Peace and Security Cooperation Framework (PSCF) for the DRC and the region. The ICGLR in particular may brief Council on progress and challenges in the implementation of the PSCF, as one of the guarantors of the Framework. In addition, the PSC may receive a briefing by the UNOAU on the new strategy on ‘Peace Consolidation, Conflict Prevention and Conflict Resolution in the Great Lakes Region’ produced by Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General to the Great Lakes Region, Huang Xia, on 12 October 2020. The new strategy which sets out UN action for the coming decade, has a specific focus on preventive diplomacy, security, cooperation, development, and promotion of human rights and is structured around three pillars: Peace, Security and Justice; Sustainable Development and Shared Prosperity, and Resilience to Former and New Challenges.
The expected outcome of the session is unknown at the time of production of this insight. The PSC may however include in its outcome document a call for countries of the region as well as relevant Regional Economic Communities (RECs) to increase their cooperation and coordination towards achieving sustainable peace and stability in the region. In light of the concerning security trends in countries in the region the Council may also reiterate its call for Member States to deescalate tensions and to immediately bring an end to violence against civilians. The PSC may also express its concern of the exacerbating effects of COVID19 in an already fragile region. It may further urge Member States to enhance their efforts towards implementing the PSCF to ensure stability in the region.
Consideration of the Report of the Chairperson of the Commission on the activities of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) and renewal of mandate
Amani Africa
Date | 18 January, 2021
Tomorrow (January 18) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold its 973rd session to consider the Report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) and the European Union (EU)-AU support to the Force. The PSC is also expected to renew the mandate of the MNJTF. The session will take place through VTC.
The chair of the month Senegal is expected to make opening remarks. The Peace and Security Department (PSD) is expected to provide a brief to the Council on the activities of MNJTF. The representative of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) and Head of the MNJTF may also deliver statements.
Representatives of member states of LCBC plus Benin and the EU are also expected to make statements.
The last time the PSC convened a session on Lake Chad region was during its 898th meeting held on 28 November 2019 where the Council, among others, renewed the mandate of the MNJTF until 31 January 2020; requested the Commission to make efforts towards mobilizing more additional support for the Task Force in filling its regional capability gaps and humanitarian support; as well as regularly update the Council on the situation in the region. As a follow-up session, the report of the Chairperson is expected to highlight the recent developments in the region, and provide update on the activities of the MNJTF since the last session.
This session comes against the backdrop of intensified militant attacks that continued to ravage the Lake Chad region, including the gruesome attacks in Niger, Nigeria and Chad. Chairperson’s report is expected to capture the recent bouts of violence unleashed by Boko Haram and other militant groups, reflecting the continued threat to the peace and security of the region despite the significant gain made by MNJTF and member states of the LCBC plus Benin in the fight against the former.
The latest in a series of attacks is the deadly violence that hit villages of southwestern Niger near the Malian border on January 2, reportedly killing 100 people. This came less than a month after the attack attributed to Boko Haram targeting Niger’s Diffa region that left at least 27 civilians dead and 800 homes burned. Boko Haram also continued to wreak havoc in Nigeria’s restive Borno state and beyond over the course of 2020. On December 11, gunmen stormed boys school located in Kankara (Nigeria’s northwestern Katsina State) and abducted around 110 boys whose release was secured later on. One of the deadliest attack yet unleashed in November when suspected Boko Haram militants massacred more than 110 farmers in a village near Borno’s capital Maiduguri, not to mention its ambush in northern Yobe state in March killing at least 50 soldiers. Chad has not been spared by the militant’s attack- close to 100 Chadian soldiers were killed in March in Lac province, which is one of the hotspots of Boko Haram’s insurgency bordering Niger and Nigeria.
Tomorrow’s session is also expected to pay greater heed to the structural problems prevailing in Lake Chad region. A shift from short-term military operations towards a long-term development measures that would address the root causes of instability is required to achieve sustainable peace in the region. The PSC highlighted this issue in its previous meeting by stressing the importance of addressing ‘political, social and developmental challenges affecting the region, including food insecurity exacerbated by the shrinking water resources of the Lake Chad’. Similarly, the UN Security Council, in its resolution 2349 (2017), called upon governments in the region to take measures to address ‘social, political, economic and gender inequalities, and environmental challenges’, placing the focus on the root causes of the crisis.
It was also in recognition of the need to bring a shift from military engagements towards tackling root causes of the crisis that the AUC, LCBC and development partners devised a Regional Stabilization Strategy (RSS) in 2017, endorsed by the PSC during its 816th session held on December 5, 2018. The RSS seeks to bring stabilization, resilience and recovery of the affected areas of the four countries around Lake Chad basin, namely Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. In this context, the PSC is expected to receive updates on the progresses made towards the implementation of the different pillars outlined in the strategy.
One development that would interest the PSC members in this respect could be the recent World Bank initiative, which rolled out two projects worth of $346 million in May 2020 that aimed at strengthening resilience and livelihoods in the Lake Chad region. The Council may also take note of the various projects of United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) undertaken in the affected areas of the Lake Chad basin under it’s the Regional Stabilization Facility (RSF) – an initiative launched by UNDP in 2019 with the support of Germany, Sweden, UK and EU to facilitate the implementation of RSS. The briefing by the PSD may further elaborate on the implementation of the RSS through the RSF including the construction of infrastructure and provision of basic services to communities.
Given PSC’s call for developing communication strategies that would enable to win the hearts and minds of the people of Lake Chad region during its 898th session, the recent regional workshop organized by MNJTF and the LCBC, in collaboration with UNDP, held at N’Djamena in October 2020 would likely interest PSC members. Featuring high profile speakers and drawing attendants from wide spectrum of stakeholders, the 5-day workshop was meant to provide a foundation for an inclusive regional communication strategy aimed at countering radical narratives propagated by extremist groups as well as discouraging sympathy and support to the latter.
Another issue likely to feature in the PSC’s discussion is the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the region, a concern also reiterated by the UN Security Council during its February 11 presidential statement on the conditions in Sahel and Lake Chad Basin., The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in its briefing December 15 painted a gloomy picture of the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the region and the huge financial gaps to respond to the crisis. According to the briefing, the violence in Lake Chad displaced 2.9 million internally and forced some 300,000 people to flee violence as refugees. Only 52 percent of the required $126.3 million fund has been secured thus far. The situation is further exacerbated by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. This was particularly highlighted during the Ambassadorial-level meeting of the Peacebuilding Commission on the impact of Covid-19 in the Lake Chad Basin held on September 9. The meeting, among others, noted the impact of Covid-19 in compounding the security and humanitarian situation of the Lake Chad and its disproportionate effects on women and girls.
The PSC is also expected to receive a briefing on the EU-AU support to the MNJTF through the African Peace Facility. The briefing is expected to highlight the activities undertaken in in the first phase support, which ended in December 2020, and the activities that will be included in the second phase that will run from January to December 2021. The briefing may also present the challenges that the MNJTF continues to face in conducting its operation.
The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC may commend the MNJTF, LCBC member states and Benin for their efforts and progresses achieved in the fight against Boko Haram. The Council may express its concern over the continued security threat and the deteriorating humanitarian situation. In this regard, the Council may once again urge the Commission, LCBC member states plus Benin, RECs, and international partners to enhance their efforts in terms of supporting MNJTF’s capability as well as mobilizing the required resources that would enable the regional force to effectively respond to the security threats. The PSC is also likely to reiterate the need to adopt comprehensive approach in countering Boko Haram and the importance of tackling the root causes of violence that keeps providing fodder for Boko Haram and other extremists in the region. The Council may further call upon member states, sub-regional, regional and international organizations, donors and other stakeholders to step-up their efforts in the realization of the regional stabilization strategy that seeks to bring stabilization, recovery and resilience of the Boko Haram affected areas.
The PSC may commend the EU for the continued support to the MNJTF. Given the increasing attacks perpetrated by Boko Haram and the need to sustain combat operations by the regional force, the PSC may decide to renew the mandate of MNJTF for another 12 months.