Briefing on the situation in Somalia
Amani Africa
Date | 13 December, 2019
Tomorrow (13 December) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will receive a briefing on the situation in Somalia and the activities of AMISOM. As
Somalia is gearing up to hold elections next year, the PSC is expected to make a thorough assessment of the
progress made and the challenges that lie ahead. The AU Peace and Security Department and the Special Representative of the AUC Chairperson to Somalia and head of the AU Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), Francisco Madeira, are expected to brief the PSC. During the introductory part of the session, following the practice of the PSC the Inter‐ Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), particularly Ethiopia as the Chair of IGAD and African Member of the UN Security Council (A3), the UN office to the AU (UNOAU) and the European Union (EU) will also make their statements at the session are expected to make a statement.
Tomorrow’s session is expected to address various issues including the preparations for the 2020 national elections, the recent political and security developments in Somalia and the implementation of AMISOM’s mandate under the revised CONOPS adopted in May 2019. The 2020 election is a key milestone in the stabilization and peacebuilding of Somalia and the holding of “one man, one vote” election in the country for the first time in fifty years will be historic. In this regard, finalizing the Constitutional Review, adopting the amended Federal Constitution and the electoral law, allocating the necessary resources for the election and creating a safe and secure environment for the conduct of the election are considered priority areas. At the Somalia Partners Forum held on 2 October 2019, in Mogadishu, Somalia has committed itself to expediting the constitutional and legislative processes with a view to adopting the electoral laws this month and the Federal Constitution in June next year, while international partners agreed to provide the necessary support in this regard.
However, the prevailing tension between Mogadishu and the regions has been an obstacle in establishing broad political consensus in the country. There is concern that the situation may escalate ahead of elections.
Therefore, easing these tensions will be very critical to ensure the smooth and peaceful conduct of the election and lay the foundation for ensuring democratic and inclusive politics. This requires that constructive dialogue takes place between Mogadishu and the regions to
overcome differences and resolve the prevailing stalemate. Indeed the most recent agreement reached between the Federal Government of Somalia and the leadership of Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a (ASWJ) is a positive step. The meeting between President Farmajo and two former Presidents, Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud and Sheikh Sharif was welcomed by international partners as a step in the right direction and further engagement was
encouraged among key stakeholders at national and regional levels to ensure broader consensus on the holding of peaceful and credible elections. In terms of the regional dynamics, tensions were also rising between Somalia and Kenya in relation to their maritime dispute.
The meeting of President Farmajo and President Kenyatta in Nairobi last month to improve strained relations was very much welcomed. This is believed to have positive impact not only for the bilateral relations between the two countries but also the peace and security of the wider region.
The security situation in Somalia remains volatile. Al‐Shabaab remains a serious threat continuing to create havoc and mayhem but, according to AMISOM, there has been a decline in Al‐Shabab’s activities over the last three months owing to a number of factors, including an
increase in the number of lethal strikes against Al‐Shabaab by partners, with the arrival of the Somali rains, which made it difficult for the group to operate and the successive operations conducted jointly by Somali security forces and AMISOM. This is said to have forced the group to concentrate its activities in and around Mogadishu. The mortar attack on the Airport zone where AMISOM Headquarters and the UN compound are located is a case in point. Ensuring public security and safety in preparation for the election is absolutely vital and AMISOM is said to have repositioned itself to do that and also strengthen its support to the Somali electoral
security task force.
The implementation of the Somali‐led Transition Plan has been a matter of priority. The progress made in reforming the Somali security forces and in undertaking joint operations with AMISOM, including the recovery of some territories from Al‐Shabab and handover of forward operating bases to the Somalia National Army has been considered encouraging. However, the pace of implementation has been rather slow and there is a long way to go before the Somali National Army is ready to take over full and effective security responsibilities from AMISOM. Therefore, there is need to undertake the necessary assessment to make sure that the drawdown of AMISOM forces in accordance with resolution 2472 (2019) is calibrated with the evolving situation on the ground.
The humanitarian situation in Somalia has also been a cause of concern. According to the UN, heavy seasonal rains triggered floods affecting thousands of people in the southern part of the country. The situation is taking a heavy toll on the people. Farmlands and other infrastructures have been destroyed. There is need for urgent humanitarian response to reach out to people in the worst affected areas. In terms of Somalia’s long‐term peacebuilding needs and its development agenda, Somalia is making progress in its discussions with the international financial institutions towards securing a debt relief. The progress in its reform efforts, including in improving public financial management and revenue generation, as well as adopting a new National Development Plan have been recognized as positive steps by international partners. At the Somalia Partners Forum, it has agreed with international partners on “a Mutual Accountability Framework to narrow their joint focus to priority areas for action and resources in order to achievThe expected outcome of the meeting is a communique.
The PSC is expected to take note of the progress made in Somalia and underscore the need to expedite preparations to ensure a peaceful, free, fair and credible election next year. The Council may reiterate its concern over the prevailing tensions between the Federal Government and the regions and urge the Somali stakeholders to exert every possible effort to resolve their differences through constructive dialogue and negotiation with a view to building the necessary political consensus towards election 2020. In this context, it may welcome the meeting between President Farmajo and the two Former Presidents. It may also welcome the easing of tensions between Somalia and Kenya following the meeting of the leadership of the two countries.
The Council may express concern over the volatile security situation in Somalia and the continued attack by Al‐Shabaab. In this regard, it may underline the need to create a safe and secure environment for the holding of peaceful election next year. It may also point out the need for a comprehensive assessment of the security situation in the country in light of the conditions‐based gradual withdrawal of AMISOM in line with the relevant security council resolutions and the decisions of the AUPSC. The Council could express concern on the humanitarian situation and call for the mobilization of international assistance in support of people who are affected by the recent flooding. It may, on the other hand, express satisfaction with the progress made in the reform efforts and the positive momentum built in the discussion with the IFIs with regard to debt relief.
Briefing on conflict prevention, early warning and mediation in Africa
Amani Africa
Date | 12 December, 2019
Tomorrow (13 December) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to receive a briefing on conflict prevention, early warning and mediation in Africa. Fred Ngoga, Head of the Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Division (CPEWD) of the AU Commission is expected to brief the PSC. Representatives of Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and Regional Mechanisms (RMs) may also make interventions.
The briefing is expected to focus on two main issues. The first will be horizon scanning of threats to peace and security in Africa. A second possible aspect of the briefing may be an update on the status of development of conflict prevention tools.
One of the key principles that guide the operationalization of the PSC mandate is ‘early response to contain crisis situations to prevent them from developing into full‐blown conflicts.’ The PSC Protocol highlights the Council’s responsibility to ‘anticipate and prevent conflicts’ particularly through ‘early warning and preventive diplomacy’. Conflict prevention and early warning is also one of the key objectives of the AU articulated in the Constitutive Act.
However, during the last briefing on early warning, at its 669th session the PSC has indicated its concern with regards to the ‘continued cases of denials to objective/credible early warning signals of looming crises, thereby undermining the conflict prevention capacity of Council’.
Similarly at its 12th retreat held in June 2019 in Rabat, the PSC stressed challenges to conflict prevention including insufficient funding and resources, lack of political will of member states and sensitiveness around the categorization of looming crisis. Towards enhancing the capacity of the Council it has ‘decided to increase the regularity of briefing sessions with the AU Commission, on issues relating to looming crises with a view to assembling the relevant information for appropriate action’. Tomorrow’s session will also be an opportunity to deliberate on some of these challenges that are preventing the scaling up of early warning mechanisms for early action.
Within this context, the horizon scanning is expected to assess the security situation in the five regions and may identify the major threats witnessed across the continent. It may particularly look into the broad areas of root causes, structural factors and drivers of conflict including terrorism and radicalization, climate change, election, democratization, governance, respect of human rights and the rule of law as well socio‐economic inequalities and marginalization.
As part of its Border Program, CPEWD’s presentation may also highlight the tension that may be arising from border demarcation and delimitation disputes.
In terms of country and regional focus, it may pay particular attention to situations which are experiencing not only looming crisis but also countries and regions that may be experiencing relative stability while confronted with risks of relapse to violence. In this regard, the briefing may shed light on the developments in various countries, which are currently in political transition or have recently signed peace agreements or are in mediation processes including countries such as Sudan, South Sudan and CAR. It may also pay particular attention to close to twenty countries that will be holding elections in the coming year.
The briefing may also look into the cross‐border and regional aspect of conflict prevention. It may offer an analysis on regions that are experiencing conflicts and crisis emanating from intertwined and compounded factors affecting multiple countries. The presentation may also provide an assessment of key trends and analysis on changing dynamics and complexities surrounding the causes of conflicts.
In the light of the longstanding challenges of effective operationalization of the conflict prevention mandate of the PSC, it would be of interest for PSC members to look into the modalities for a more effective engagement in conflict prevention. In this regard, consideration can be given to Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol that provides for the possibility of the PSC holding informal consultations. As a meeting format that has not been adequately explored, informal consultation particularly at the level of Committee of Experts of the PSC avails useful avenue for considering early warning briefings and exploring options for preventive action.
After the overall overview of peace and security risks and threats, the presentation in its second part may look into conflict prevention tools and update on their progress. This will also be an opportunity to promote and enhance the utilization of continental and regional mechanisms by policy makers.
Article 2 of the PSC protocol stipulates the need for the Council to be supported by the various mechanisms including Continental Early Warning System in fulfilling its mandate. CEWS primarily consists of two components: (i) the continental observation and monitoring center, known as “The Situation Room” and (ii) the observation and monitoring units of the Regional Mechanisms for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution (RMs), which collect and process data and are linked directly to the Situation Room. To this end, it will be critical to deliberate on mechanism that enhance the synergy and close collaboration between the AU and RECs/RMs in providing up‐to‐date and relevant information to the PSC as well for the PSC itself to strengthen its working relations with the regional entities.
Considering the ongoing AU institutional reform process and increased PSC engagement with RECs/RMs, Council members may wish to recall the commitments made during PSC’s 12th retreat which tasked the PSC jointly with RECs/RMs policy organs to establish ‘criteria for assessing looming crises and emerging situations… to ensure … common understanding of parameters, benchmarks and principles that define entry points for interventions’.
The presentation by the division may also provide an update on the activities of Panel of the Wise as a key pillar that is established for preventive diplomacy and in order to support the efforts of the PSC and those of the AUC Chairperson, particularly in the area of conflict prevention. The briefing may provide an update on the recently concluded annual statutory meeting of the Panel of the Wise as well as the AU Special Envoy Representatives. PSC members may also follow up further on the work of the Special Envoys considering the decision at its 12th retreat ‘to hold each year a PSC session during which AU Special Representatives/Envoys and AU High Representatives will provide briefings’.
The presentation may also provide an update on thematic issues related to Gender, Peace and Security Program and the work of FemWise as well as their harmonization with other gender centered mechanisms in the Commission including the Office of the Special Envoy on Women, Peace and Security and the Gender Directorate.
As part of the Youth for Peace program activities the presentation may also raise the developments around the ‘Study on the Roles and Contributions of Youth to Peace and Security in Africa’, which was recently considered by the PSC.
The expected outcome of the session was unknown during the production of this ‘Insight’. The PSC may urge member states to strengthen their efforts at the national level as well as support the efficiency of early warning and prevention mechanisms at AU and RECs/RM level. Towards operationalizing its mandate, the PSC may also urge for the strengthening of the reporting tool of the Commission through enhancing of the systematic provision of early warning reports. The PSC may also urge the Commission to provide regular briefings and horizon scanning to equip members with relevant data for effective decision‐making. To this end, the PSC may consider adopting informal consultation as the format for a more regular and systematic consideration of early warning and conflict prevention sessions including through the convening of such informal consultations at the level of Committee of Experts.
Briefing on Silencing the Guns in Africa
Amani Africa
Date | 10, December 2019
Tomorrow (10 December) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will consider the draft report on the implementation of the AU Roadmap on Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020, which will be presented to the next ordinary session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union scheduled to take place in Addis Ababa in February next year.
Silencing the Guns is a flagship initiative of the African Union to promote prevention, management and resolution of conflicts in Africa. It provides the overarching strategy guiding the efforts of the organization in ensuring a peaceful and secure Africa and laying a solid foundation for the
implementation of Agenda 2063. As part of the Solemn Declaration of the 50th Anniversary of the African Union, African states committed “to achieve the goal of a conflict‐free Africa, to make peace a reality for all our people and to rid the continent of wars, civil conflicts, human rights violations, humanitarian disasters and violent conflicts and to prevent genocide.” They further pledged “not to bequeath the burden of conflicts to the next generation of Africans and undertake to end all wars by 2020.”
The AUPSC submitted a Master Roadmap of practical steps to Silencing the Guns by 2020, which was endorsed by the Assembly in January 2017. In view of the impending deadline, the upcoming AU Summit in February next year is expected to take stock of the progress made and the challenges encountered in the efforts made towards achieving the objective of silencing the guns in Africa. In this context, the 32nd ordinary session of the Assembly requested the PSC, with the support of the Commission, to take steps for the elaboration of a comprehensive report on the status of implementation of the AU Master Roadmap.
Therefore, the AUPSC will consider the draft report before its submission to the Assembly. A decision has already been made that the AU theme of the year for 2020 would be “Silencing the Guns: Creating Conducive Conditions for Africa’s Development”.
For PSC member states, some of the issues of interest include the degree of progress made and the remaining challenges as well as the measures to be taken for addressing the challenges towards increased progress for silencing the guns in Africa. Although fragile, some progress has been made towards resolving some of the most intractable conflicts in Africa. The signing of the revitalized peace agreement in South Sudan had revived hope for restoring peace. The guns have by and large been silent but without implementing the letter and spirit of the agreement, there is a serious risk of reversal. Ensuring accelerated progress in the extended pre‐transition period of 100 days will be very critical in this regard. The signing of the peace agreement in Central African Republic also rescued the country from falling into the abyss but
challenges still abound. Furthermore, the signing of the power‐sharing deal by the Sudanese stakeholders with the support of the AU and Ethiopia has set a very good example in the search for African solutions to African problems.
The normalization of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea also ended long standing stalemate that impeded stability in the Horn of Africa. However, without resolving some of the outstanding issues, sustaining the peace will be a challenge. Progress has also been made in recent years in strengthening governance including in holding peaceful elections in Africa. This said, strengthening institutions of governance, promoting inclusive politics, responding to the needs and aspiration of the people remains a daunting challenge.
By AU’s own admission, some of the limited progresses achieved thus far are a far cry compared to the lofty goals and objectives set out in the AU Master Roadmap for silencing the guns in Africa and the scale of remaining challenges. The continent no doubt continues to face serious threats to its peace and stability. Parts of Africa remain mired in conflict and new challenges to peace and security have emerged.
Governance deficits coupled with the global economic slowdown and its attendant impact on commodity prices as well as the youth bulge and high rates of unemployment have made many African countries vulnerable to instability and conflict. Together with this, the mismanagement of diversity and competition over power and resources have also contributed to fueling conflicts in some parts of the continent. In other parts, state fragility and weak state institutions have increased the risk of those countries that have emerged out of conflict relapsing into yet another cycle of conflict and violence.
Therefore, that a lot remains to be done towards silencing the guns in Africa is all the more evident and, hence, the need to redouble efforts to fasttrack implementation. There is a recognition of this fact and a dedicated Unit under the Bureau of the AU Commission Chairperson has been established.
Considering the new global geo‐political dynamics, enhancing the role of the AU and regional mechanisms in the promotion and maintenance of peace and security in Africa is not an option. The institutional reforms underway will be critical in strengthening the governance and security architectures of the AU to accelerate efforts towards silencing the guns in Africa. Ensuring greater coordination and synergy between the AU and regional mechanisms is also vital. Furthermore, the revitalization of the AU Peace Fund will contribute to addressing the financing needs of the AU in its prevention and peacemaking efforts. At a time when there is donor fatigue, enhancing greater ownership of the AU’s programmatic activities and enhancing the contribution of member State to the Peace Fund has become all the more indispensable. This should be driven by the conviction that building a conflict free Africa is essentially the responsibility of the AU and its Member States, their people and their institutions, including civil society.
Although no outcome by way of statement or communique is expected, the AUPSC is expected to endorse the draft report with revisions and recommend it for adoption by the Assembly. It may express appreciation to the AU High Representative for Silencing the Guns in Africa and recommend that a plan is put in place for addressing challenges faced in the implementation of the AU Master Roadmap.
The PSC may also welcome the adoption of resolution 2457 (2019) and commend the role of Equatorial Guinea and other members of the A3 for their important contribution in facilitating its adoption. It may also reiterate the need for all AU Member States to submit their reports on their implementation of the AU Master Roadmap.
Ministerial session on ‘National Reconciliation, Restoration of Peace, Security and Rebuilding of Cohesion in Africa’
Amani Africa
Date | 05 December, 2019
Tomorrow (5 December 2019) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council is scheduled to hold a ministerial session under the theme ‘National Reconciliation, Restoration of Peace, Security and Rebuilding of Cohesion in Africa’.
Apart from members of the PSC, non‐PSC AU member states including Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Mali and Niger are also expected to participate at the ministerial meeting.
This theme was inscribed into the program of the month for December on the initiative of Angola. The session is also slated to take place in the capital Luanda. This is illustrative of the increasing regional and continental role Angola has come to play. It is to be recalled that in September Luanda played host to a major continental conference on the promotion of the culture of peace.
Indicating the significance of this session for Angola, the President of Angola, João Lourenço, is expected to open the session. Angola’s experience with national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of cohesion in the aftermath of the long civil war and the divisions it sowed is expected to be highlighted.
The ministerial session is expected to provide a platform to discuss and share the experience of participating states in national reconciliation and in building inclusive and stable societies. A number of issues would be of interest for PSC members. One such issue is to identify what kind of reconciliation processes – national reconciliation commission, national dialogue or national consultations – that member states deployed in the search for national reconciliation and the institutional and policy measures they developed for inclusion, representation, or sharing of power for achieving inclusive structures of government and fostering national cohesion.
Another and critical issue is how to muster decisive political leadership and the will to make difficult compromises as a means of building trust and achieving national reconciliation. As the challenges in South Sudan or Mali show, this more than anything else is the key ingredient for the success of initiatives for national reconciliation and rebuilding of cohesion.
The timing of the theme of this session is of particular importance as it coincides with commencement of the 2020 AU theme of the year focusing on Silencing the Guns in Africa as 2019 gets concluded in a few weeks’ time. Within this context, tomorrow’s session is expected to draw out the particular contribution of its thematic focus towards the making progress to meet the ambition of silencing the guns in Africa. In this respect and as part of the effort to silence the guns, an important consideration is the need to paying a more central attention to the inclusion and promotion of arrangements for national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of national cohesion in peace processes for resolving existing conflicts or as part of the initiative for restoring peace, security and rebuilding cohesion in emerging crisis situations such as in Cameroon or contested political transitions such as Ethiopia.
Indeed, national reconciliation and rebuilding of cohesion are crucial at all stages of the conflict cycle from prevention to post‐conflict reconstruction and development. Such initiatives are important for countries having peace processes for resolving existing conflicts such as the Central African Republic or South Sudan or Mali and for countries in a post‐conflict phase such as Cote d’Ivoire. Initiatives for national reconciliation and rebuilding of cohesion are also important for conflict prevention in countries with relative peace and stability. This is illustrated for example by recent experiences of some AU member states such as the Building of Bridges Initiative of Kenya and the provision, as part of the on‐going transition facing contestations, for a national reconciliation commission in Ethiopia.
In all these different settings, some of the issues for the PSC and its member states include the role to be played by the AU and how to support initiatives for national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of cohesion. The AU, including through the PSC, has on various occasions called for the ratification of various AU instruments. There are however gaps on how to give them domestic legislative, institutional and policy expression and translate them into forms of inclusive and representative political and socio‐economic governance structures.
This is not the first time that the PSC convenes a session on subject related to the theme of tomorrow’s session. Its 347th, 383rd, 409th, 525th, 672nd and 726th sessions also focused on a related theme. Indeed, the first time the PSC held ministerial level session on a related theme was at its 393rd session. That session was held in Algiers, Algeria, on 29 June 2013 under the theme ‘National Reconciliation: A Crucial Factor for Security, Stability and Development in Africa’. Apart from highlighting what it called elements for conducting national reconciliation, the communique of this 383rd ministerial session underscored that ‘national reconciliation is an imperative for overcoming divisions arising from conflict and restoring social cohesion, in order to ensure lasting stability and progress’.
The communique of the 409th session of the PSC recommended to the AU Assembly to declare ‘2014‐2024 as a decade of reconciliation in Africa with a view to consolidating peace, stability and sustainable development on the continent’, leading to the AU Assembly decision of 31 January 2014 declaring ‘2014–2024 as the Madiba Nelson Mandela Decade of Reconciliation in Africa’. Although it has not been implemented, one of the important pronouncements of the 525th press statement of the PSC was the decision to make the theme a standing thematic agenda of the PSC to be reflected in the annual indicative calendar.
The Press Statement of the last PSC session on this theme at the 726th session of the PSC emphasized the importance of comprehensive transitional justice and reconciliation process, as being key to effectively preventing relapses and laying a strong foundation for sustainable peace in countries emerging from violent conflicts. Affirming the critical importance of national ownership, it also underscored ‘the importance of building and further enhancing the capacity of local, national and regional justice systems, including peace committees, peacebuilding ministries and national reconciliation commissions, as well as community and traditional justice systems.’ It also reiterated previous calls for expediating the process of the development and adoption of AU transitional justice policy instrument.
The review of the previous sessions highlights that at least two elements were lacking. First, although these previous sessions benefited from the 2006 AU Policy on Post‐Conflict Reconstruction and Development, when these previous sessions were held the AU transitional justice policy did not exist. Second, the mechanism for following up the measures required to advance this thematic agenda. Tomorrow’s session takes place in a different context. First, it is convened after the adoption of the AU Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP), which was adopted by the AU Assembly in February 2019. Apart from consolidating the key messages of previous PSC sessions on this theme and bringing them into a coherent framework, this Policy presents, drawing from the rich and diverse national reconciliation, justice and peace‐making experiences of the continent, the principles, guidelines, mechanisms and benchmarks for the implementation of national transitional justice processes including national reconciliation and truth seeking. For its implementation, the AUTJP is complemented, as highlighted in the preface to the policy that AU Chairperson Mousa Faki Mahamat wrote, by the Study of the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights on Transitional Justice and Human and Peoples’ Rights.
The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. It is expected that the PSC would underscore national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of national cohesion to be indispensable for achieving progress in Africa’s quest for Silencing the Guns and should receive particular attention during the 2020 theme of the year. The PSC is also expected to call for the implementation of previous decisions on the theme particularly the decision of its 525th for making the theme of the session a standing agenda item of the PSC. The PSC could also welcome the adoption by the AU Assembly of the AUTJP and urge member states to use the Policy in pursuing national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of cohesion. The PSC could also call on the AU Commission and the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights in collaboration with member states to support the implementation of the AUTJP in peace processes, peacebuilding, conflict prevention and national reconciliation initiatives and report to it on existing and emerging national initiatives.
