Tomorrow (12 November), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is set to convene for its 1244^th session to discuss the situation in Libya.

Following opening remarks from Jean Léon Ngandu Ilunga, Permanent Representative of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to the AU and chairperson of the PSC for the month of November, Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Department, is expected to make a statement. It is also expected that Wahida Ayari Yari, the Special Representative of the AU Commission Chairperson to Libya briefs the PSC, and a representative of the United Nations Office to the African Union (UNOAU) makes a statement. The representative of the Chairperson of the AU High-Level Committee on Libya and a representative of Libya, as the country concerned, are also expected to make statements.

Tomorrow’s session is the first since the last substantive PSC session. That last session in April 2023 was the 1150^th session titled, ‘Towards National Reconciliation in Libya’. In its communiqué from that meeting, the AUPSC commended ongoing efforts to convene a national reconciliation conference as a step toward restoring stability in Libya. The council also reiterated its decision to conduct a field mission to Libya to demonstrate the AU’s solidarity with the Libyan people and to gather direct insights into the situation, aiming to support more informed decisions on the way forward.  This session also comes against the background of the recent visit by the AU under the leadership of the Mauritanian President, the AU Chairperson for 2024, along with the AU Commission Chairperson and the Representative of the Chairperson of the AU Ad Hoc Committee on Libya.

Tomorrow’s session can therefore serve two objectives. The first of these objectives is to take stock of developments in Libya since the last PSC session. The second objective is to receive an update from the AU on the role of the continental body, on why the convening of the reconciliation conference scheduled to take place in April 2024 could not be held, and on the nature and outcome of the recent mission of the AU to Libya.

Libya’s political deadlock persists, with rival governments in Tripoli and Tobruk unable to make any progress toward resolving their differences. At the heart of the crisis is the delayed organisation of national elections, initially scheduled for 2021 but now indefinitely postponed. The UN has taken the lead in facilitating talks to help Libyan political stakeholders agree on a roadmap for elections. However, continued intransigence among these stakeholders has hampered the UN’s efforts. Former UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative to Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, who was leading these talks, left his position in April, deeply frustrated by what he described as the stakeholders’ ‘stubborn resistance, unreasonable expectations, and indifference to the interests of the Libyan people.’ Complicating the situation further is the rivalry among external actors seeking influence in Libya, which, according to Bathily, has made finding a resolution ‘ever elusive.’

Six months after Bathily’s resignation, the UN has yet to appoint a successor. Currently, Stephanie Koury of the United States serves as the Acting Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya. Koury has expressed her intention to revive talks between Libyan stakeholders, though the prospects for substantial progress in overcoming the political deadlock remain bleak.

Tensions escalated in Libya in August when the Tripoli-based government dismissed the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya, one of the few institutions serving both rival governments. The Governor’s relationship with Tripoli had recently deteriorated, leading to his removal—a decision contested by authorities in eastern Libya. This sparked a major crisis, resulting in the closure of key oil fields and terminals and a sharp decline in oil exports, the cornerstone of Libya’s economy. In response, the UN facilitated multiple rounds of negotiations with Libyan political stakeholders, eventually achieving a compromise on appointing new Central Bank leadership.

The other issue that is expected to feature during tomorrow’s session is the role of the AU. The AU has not taken a lead role in resolving the Libyan political crisis but remains a member of the Quartet, which includes the UN, the AU, the League of Arab States, and the EU. The AUPSC has repeatedly emphasised the importance of improved coordination, harmonisation, and complementarity among these partners to prevent overlapping efforts and competing initiatives in support of Libyan peace.

The AU High-Level Committee on Libya, chaired by the Republic of Congo’s President, Denis Sassou Nguesso, is responsible for the AU’s role in the Libyan issue. This committee contributes to the UN-led process by prioritising peace and reconciliation efforts, which are seen as crucial steps toward organising national elections and concluding Libya’s prolonged transitional period. On 5 February, the AU High-Level Committee on Libya held a high-level meeting in Brazzaville to prepare for the national reconciliation conference. The meeting urged the swift advancement of peace and reconciliation efforts in Libya and encouraged all Libyan parties to engage inclusively and constructively. Emphasising transitional justice, the committee highlighted the importance of traditional conflict resolution practices to foster national unity, healing, consensus, and social cohesion. The meeting requested the AU Commission to continue supporting Libyans to ensure the successful conduct of this process in a timely and effective manner. Furthermore, it underscored the need to expedite the relocation of the AU Liaison Office for Libya from Tunis to Tripoli, as directed by the AU Assembly at its 35th Ordinary Session.

Libyan political stakeholders had initially agreed to hold the national reconciliation conference on 28 April in Sirte, Libya. However, persistent divisions among them led to its indefinite postponement. Last month, the current AU Chair, Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani of Mauritania, accompanied by AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat and the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Congo, representing the AU High-Level Committee on Libya, visited Tripoli to revive discussions around convening the conference. The AU delegation indicated plans to visit eastern Libya in the coming weeks for further talks, though no specific date was provided.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC may express concern over the lack of progress in the effort to achieve consensus on the issues dividing Libyan political and social forces including notably the electoral process and the establishment of a unified interim government. It may express concern that the prevailing status quo in Libya is unsustainable and keeps the country in political limbo and uncertainty, which perpetuates the division, instability and sporadic incidents of violence and conflicts. The PSC may urge the various Libyan stakeholders to summon the leadership and compromise required to end the prevailing political stalemate and instability in the country, which is undermining development and security in the country. It may welcome the agreement reached between the rival administrations in Libya to resolve the disagreement over the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya and call on the rival parties to show the same level of commitment and compromise in resolving their disagreement over the formation of a unified interim administration, the electoral process and the finalisation of the making of the final constitution. The PSC may emphasise the need for finalising the preparatory work for the convening of the national reconciliation conference. It may also reiterate the outcome of the summit of the AU High-level Committee on Libya encouraging the Presidential Council to establish as soon as possible the National Commission for Reconciliation to carry out its mandate. The PSC may also echo the emphasis that the High-Level Committee put on ‘the essential aspect of transitional justice, including the use of traditional approaches to conflict resolution to promote national consensus, healing, unity and social cohesion.’ The PSC may also reiterate its earlier calls for the urgent need for the convergence and complementarity of the actions of the AU, the UN, the League of Arab States, the EU, and the international community to avoid duplication of efforts for Libya.