Briefing on the situation in Sudan
Date | 18 August 2024
Tomorrow (19 August), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1228th session to discuss the situation in Sudan.
The Permanent Representative of Botswana to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for the month of August 2024, Tebelelo A. Boang will deliver opening remarks. Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) is also expected to make a statement. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, Chairperson of the AU High-Level Panel on Sudan and AU High Representative for Silencing the Guns in Africa will also deliver a briefing which will be followed by a statement by the representative of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
The last time the PSC discussed Sudan was at its 1218th meeting on 21 June held at the Heads of State and Government level in which it directed the AU Commission Chairperson to urgently set up a PSC Ad–hoc Presidential Committee comprising one Head of State and Government from each region of the continent led by Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of Uganda and PSC Chairperson for June 2024. The establishment of the Ad–hoc Presidential Committee aims to bring the weight of the wider AU membership to bear on the leaders of the warring parties towards facilitating a face-to-face engagement between them. Apart from following up on the implementation of the outcome of its 1218th session, tomorrow’s session is expected to review the state of the diplomatic efforts towards peace in Sudan. An important aspect of the focus of the session would be on the work of the AU High-Level Panel on Sudan.
In his update, it is expected that the Chair of the AU High-Level Panel, Chambas, will provide an update on the work done thus far. Following the listening tour of the Panel for engaging Sudanese actors and neighbouring countries, the focus of the Panel has been on preparing for an inclusive inter-Sudanese political dialogue. It is to be recalled that the PSC at its 1209th session tasked the Panel as part of the process for the convening of the political dialogue to convene ‘the preparatory/planning process’ in collaboration with IGAD and neighbouring states.
Since then, the Panel together with the IGAD Special Envoy for Sudan convened the preparatory meeting for an Inter-Sudanese Political Dialogue in Addis Ababa from 10-15 July 2024. While the plan was to engage Sudanese political and civilian actors on principles to guide the dialogue, the agenda or issues to be on the agenda of the political dialogue, criteria for participation/or representation in the political dialogue and the venue of the inter-Sudanese political dialogue. A significant portion of Sudanese political and civilian forces, who expressed reservations about the inadequacy of consultations in preparing the preparatory meeting and the lack of transparency about the list of participants, boycotted the meeting. Despite this setback, the meeting was conducted with those present at the AU headquarters. Upon the conclusion of the meeting, the participants submitted their recommendations on the convening of the inter-Sudanese dialogue. Recognising the need for engaging other Sudanese stakeholders, Chambas in his remark at the closing of the meeting noted that ‘this particular meeting is one in a series of consultations’ rather than the one preparatory meeting initially expected. Explaining further, he indicated that ‘this will be followed by consultations with Taqqdum, SLM Abdul Wahid, SPLM-North Al Hilu, the Radical Block and others.’
As a follow-up to the foregoing and following the consultations, another round of preparatory meeting was convened from 9-12 August. This round brought together Sudanese civil and political actors that did not participate in the initial convening including representatives of Taqadum, SPLM-North Al Hilu, SLM Abdul Wahid, Ba’ath Party, DUP, and PCP. Following three days of meeting, Tagadum, the DUP and the PCP prepared and submitted a joint document containing their recommendations on the agenda, participation/representation, the phases of the dialogue and the role of the mediator and the international community in the inter-Sudanese dialogue. The armed movements SPLM-North Al Hilu and SLM Abdul Wahid did not sign this joint document.
At the conclusion of the second preparatory meeting, Chambas indicated that the outcome document from this consultation would be synthesised with the outcomes of other consultations to develop the guiding principles, possible agenda and criteria of representation. Considering the differences between the group that participated in the initial meeting and the group in the latest preparatory meeting, there is an expectation on the Panel from some of the participants that the Panel would put forward a bridging proposal to the civilian and political actors based on a synthesis of the proposals presented to it from the two rounds.
Apart from the activities of the AU High-Level Panel, it would also be of interest for members of the PSC to be updated on the status of other diplomatic efforts including those led by the Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General and the ceasefire talks being held in Geneva. The UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra convened the Sudanese warring parties for proximity talks in Geneva from 11 and 19 July 2024. According to a press release on 19 July 2024, the Personal Envoy and his team had around 20 sessions with the parties, including technical and plenary meetings. Lamamra characterised the meeting as an encouraging initial step in what is likely to be a longer and more complex mediation process. He expressed his intentions to remain in close contact with them to follow up on the implementation of commitments made and address critical issues.
In addition to Lamamra’s ongoing efforts, the US invited the Sudanese parties to participate in ceasefire talks scheduled for 14 August in Geneva. This followed the apparent suspension of the US-Saudi facilitated talks in Jeddah in December 2023 apparently because of the failure of the parties to implement the commitments made as part of the talks, including confidence-building measures and the withdrawal of military forces from key cities.
The US-led Geneva talks, which will be co-sponsored by Saudi Arabia and Switzerland and involve the African Union, the United Nations, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates as observers, intend to facilitate a nationwide cessation of violence to allow humanitarian access to all those in need and develop a robust monitoring and verification mechanism to ensure the implementation of any agreement. The leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti) welcomed the invitation and expressed his commitment to participate constructively in the talks. The leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) Abdel Fettah al-Burhan had also accepted the invitation on the condition that ‘any negotiations before … full withdrawal and an end to expansion (by the RSF) will not be acceptable to the Sudanese people,’ according to media reports. Later on, however, he appears to have backtracked on this after surviving a drone strike while on a military graduation ceremony at the Sudanese army base in eastern Sudan that reportedly left at least five people killed. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Al-Burhan on the phone on 5 August 2024 and urged him to attend the talks. Al-Burhan subsequently sent his delegations to Jeddah for consultations with the US but the meeting reportedly ended without any agreement on SAF’s participation at the Geneva talks. On 14 August, it was reported that Burhan ruled out ceasefire talks until the withdrawal of RSF from the cities it occupies. Despite sending delegations and declaring this as a testament to its commitment, the RSF delegation was not present at the start of the talks on 14 August. One significant development during the Geneva engagement is the announcement made on 17 August regarding the decision by the Sovereign Council of Sudan and commitments made by the RSF concerning humanitarian access. A joint statement by the international delegation highlighted the recent decision by the Sovereign Council of Sudan to open a border crossing from Chad to Nonn Danur via Adre for the next three months and the commitments made by the RSF to allow for humanitarian delivery through Dabbah, providing aid to Darfur and Kordofan. This marks progress in addressing the needs of the 25 million Sudanese requiring humanitarian assistance.
The setbacks that the Geneva talks faced underscores the importance of the role of the AU ad hoc Committee of Heads of State and Government on Sudan and the imperative for its activation. It would therefore be of particular interest for the PSC to be updated on the next steps towards the activation of the Committee for leveraging the voice and diplomatic weight of AU members from the five regions of the continent towards peace in Sudan.
As the PSC pointed out in its 1218th session, the proliferation of various mediation initiatives to resolve the Sudanese conflict has been an ongoing issue in the Sudanese peace process underscoring the need to ensure the necessary coordination and harmonisation of efforts. On 27 May 2023, the PSC adopted its roadmap for the resolution of the conflict in Sudan which, among other things, outlined the need for the establishment of a coordination mechanism to ensure all efforts by the regional and global actors are harmonised and impactful. In this regard, the importance of a single, inclusive, and consolidated peace process for Sudan, coordinated under the joint auspices of the AU, IGAD, League of Arab States, and UN, along with like-minded partners was emphasised. The AU Commission Chairperson established the expanded mechanism on Sudan and its Core Group as an inclusive platform for regional, continental, and global actors and institutions to ensure broad-based, coordinated engagement aimed at fostering political consensus and unified global support for Sudan. However, the lack of periodicity and shared plan as well as a common strategy that anchors it, the role and effectiveness of the expanded mechanism are surrounded by a cloud of uncertainty.
On 12 June, the League of Arab States convened a consultative group meeting in Cairo to facilitate an exchange of views among the various stakeholders engaged in the Sudanese peace process and draw lessons from different peace initiatives, good offices, and mediation efforts. On 24 July, Djibouti hosted the second consultative group meeting which was followed by the Mediators Planning Retreat on Sudan on 25 and 26 July. The retreat, which was proposed by Ramtane Lamamra, emphasised the need for a more coordinated and collaborative multilateral approach to move toward ending the Sudanese conflict. It also stressed the shared and differentiated responsibilities of existing multilateral coordination mechanisms and the recognition of their continued role and comparative advantages.
The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to commend the High-Level Panel for the convening of the preparatory meetings towards the holding of the inter-Sudanese political dialogue. It may underscore the need for sustaining the momentum by investing in consultations to achieve consensus on the key elements of the convening of the political dialogue and mobilise wider support and engagement by all Sudanese civilian and political actors. It may request that the necessary technical backstopping for the effective conduct of the political dialogue including the development of the mediation process and strategy for the dialogue are put in place. The PSC may take note of the mediation initiatives deployed by various stakeholders, commend these efforts and urge for their fortified coordination and harmonisation to enhance their impact. In light of recent events, the Council may welcome the announcement of the opening up of borders to allow for humanitarian access. It may also reiterate the need for enhanced coordination and to this end may call for the revitalisation of the expanded mechanism. The PSC may request that the ad hoc committee of heads of state and government be activated to harness its political weight to address the lack of progress in talks between the warring parties. The PSC is also expected to express grave concern over the continuingly deteriorating humanitarian situation and urge the conflicting parties and all relevant actors to prioritise addressing the pressing humanitarian needs, including mainly through securing and enabling humanitarian access to affected populations for containing the famine that was declared in Darfur and preventing the emergence of famine in other areas.