Tomorrow (25 September), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1233^rd session at the ministerial level. Apart from the initial agenda for the ministerial session, the situation in Sudan has been added to the session’s agenda.

The session commences with the opening statement of the Minister of External Relations of the Republic of Cameroon and Chairperson of the PSC for the month of September 2024, Lejeune Mbella Mbella. AU Commission Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, is expected to deliver a briefing. During the deliberation and following intervention from member states, the Chairperson of the AU High-Level Panel on Sudan and AU High Representative for Silencing the Guns, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, is slated to respond.

The last time the PSC discussed the situation in Sudan was during its 1228^th session on 19 August 2024. Earlier in May, the PSC specifically addressed the situation in Darfur following the escalation of armed conflict and the imminent threat of violent capture of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. In that session, the PSC expressed grave concern over the situation unfolding around El Fasher and reiterated the call of the Chairperson of the AU Commission for the parties to ‘return to the local truce that spared El Fasher from the worst of the fighting for a year, and to lift the current siege on the city that led to more atrocities and difficulties for civilians as well as to return to an expanded negation platform in Jeddah without delay.’ In addition, the PSC requested for the AU High-Level Panel to directly engage with the Special Envoy for the Prevention of Genocide, Adam Dieng to develop proposals on how to address ongoing atrocities and to prevent further escalation in Darfur, as well as to develop a plan for the protection of civilians. It also tasked the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights to urgently investigate the human rights situation in El Fasher and other areas in Darfur and to report back to the Council.

What prompted the introduction of the situation in Sudan as a new agenda item of the PSC under the 1233^rd session was the grave situation in North Darfur, particularly El Fasher. Following the outbreak of fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April 2023 which led to the capturing of Darfur by the RSF following the spread of the war to Darfur, North Darfur’s capital city, El Sasher, remained to be the only city in Darfur that remained outside of RSF control. One of the factors for keeping this city outside RSF control was the truce that had been brokered by local authorities leading to the freezing of the fighters of warring parties where they are, with local armed groups committing to remain neutral.

Since the launch of an offensive by the RSF for capturing the city on 10 May 2024, El Fasher has become a sight of major fighting, with the RSF imposing a siege on the city. After some slowing down of the intensity of the fighting following mounting pressure from various quarters, including the statement the PSC issued on 21 May 2024, reports have emerged that large-scale fighting escalated in El Fasher city on 12 September.

Indicating RSF’s push for forcibly capturing the city, it was reported that the city faced a major multidirectional RSF attack from the northern, eastern, and southern directions. Despite the resistance of SAF and allied forces and their proclaimed success in repelling some attacks, a report confirmed that RSF has succeeded in breaching ‘SAF’s first layer of defensive berms on 19 September 2024.’ If the fighting is not halted and the RSF violently captures the city, it is feared that El Fasher will face the same fate that befell El Genina but with a much larger scale toll on the civilian population in the city particularly on the non-Arab communities and a large number of IDPs housed in the city.

El Fasher is home to over 2 million residents and IDPs from various parts of Darfur states. These include hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people at risk of famine, including in the Zamzam camp where famine has been confirmed. The escalation of violence in El Fasher following the renewed offensive by RSF has involved indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas and the perpetration of various atrocities. These include the bombing of residential areas and hospitals, leading to the destruction of the city’s five main hospitals and its only dialysis centre. Attacks on IDP camps, including the shelling of Abu Shouk and Al Salaam, have been reported.

Apart from the grave atrocities that the escalation of violence, prompted by the RSF offensive, exposes civilians particularly the non-Arab communities including those in IDP camps, the fighting will further aggravate the catastrophic famine condition confirmed by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee (FRC). On 1 August, the FRC determined that famine conditions were present in the Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) located near El Fasher, capital of North Darfur state, which houses approximately 500,000 people, and are expected to persist through October. The report noted that similar conditions are likely to prevail in other IDP sites in the El Fasher locality, notably in the Abu Shouk and Al Salam camps.

The recent upsurge in fighting has led to the death of civilians and the displacement of thousands of others. The ‘unprecedented large-scale combat operations’ in El-Fasher were reported to involve both the army and the RSF. The army’s resort to the use of indiscriminate air attacks has also resulted in civilian violence. According to one report, current levels of fighting ‘are likely to effectively reduce what is left of El Fasher to rubble.’

The atrocities that the renewed fighting in El Fasher occasioned and the risk of further atrocities have prompted heightened levels of grave concern about the situation. The Secretary General of the UN issued a statement expressing grave alarm about reports of a full-scale assault on El Fasher by the RSF. Similarly, on 20 September, the UN Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide expressed grave concern. The Special Advisor in particular observed ‘[t]he recent escalation of hostilities has unleashed a maelstrom of violence that threatens to consume everything in its path, leaving a trail of devastation and despair in its wake.’

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to express its grave concern about the fighting in El Fasher and the violations of IHL and human rights laws being perpetrated by the warring parties. The PSC may condemn indiscriminate shelling by the RSF and the bombings by the SAF that led to death and destruction in parts of the city. It may remind the parties that they bear responsibility for all acts of violence and will be held criminally accountable. It may underscore that civilian infrastructure including hospitals and IDP camps are protected by IHL and human rights law from being attacked and urge the parties to desist from the deplorable acts of targeting hospitals and IDP camps. The PSC may demand the RSF to immediately cease its attacks and the siege it laid on the city of El Fasher as a pre-requisite for enabling lifesaving humanitarian assistance for people facing famine in El Fasher and its environs and preventing the perpetration of further mass atrocities and the destruction of the city.  The PSC may underscore the imperative for a return to the local truce that spared El Fasher from heavy fighting, thereby protecting the more than 2 million civilians including the hundreds of thousands of IDPs sheltered in the city. The PSC may reiterate the call from its 21 May 2024 statement for ‘the warring parties to ensure humanitarian access to the population in need, in Darfur and elsewhere in Sudan.’ It may also reiterate its call for investigations into the various acts of violence perpetrated in and around El Fasher. Considering the dire state of the situation and the urgency of protection of civilians, the PSC may call for the urgent establishment of a civilian protection mechanism taking the form of non-military monitors who promote measures for reinstating the local truce and facilitating, in coordination with local communities, activities that ameliorate the suffering of the civilian population and promote humanitarian access, pending the deployment of a civilian protection force as soon as conditions allow.