Tomorrow (23 May), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to convene its 1280^th session on the situation in Libya.

Following opening remarks by Ambassador Harold Saffa, Permanent Representative of Sierra Leone to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for May, Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), is expected to deliver a statement. The Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission for Libya, Ambassador Wahida Ayari, is also likely to make a statement. If previous practice is guidance, the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General and the Head of the UN Mission in Libya, Hannah Tetteh, may also address the PSC.

The last time the PSC considered this agenda item was in November 2024, during its 1244^th meeting.  The PSC reiterated ‘AU’s full support for the Permanent Ceasefire Agreement of 23 October 2020’ and reaffirmed ‘the resolute commitment and readiness of the AU to continue to support Libya in addressing its crisis, in line with AU’s principles and instruments.’ Other than this session, the only engagement of the AU involved a high-level visit in October 2024 by a delegation comprising Mauritanian President and AU Chairperson for 2024, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, the then AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat and Congo’s Foreign Minister Jean-Claude Gakosso. The visit aimed to revive efforts to convene Libya’s long-delayed national reconciliation conference, which was initially scheduled for April 2024 but did not take place. Beyond the occasional effort focusing on the convening of national reconciliation, the attention given to the situation in Libya has been waning, with the PSC convening only one session. The field mission to Libya, envisaged in the PSC’s annual indicative programme, did not take place in 2024, just as it did not in 2023.

Tomorrow’s meeting comes following the assassination of a key militia leader, which has reignited violence in Tripoli, threatening the fragile 2020 ceasefire. The assassination of Abdel Ghani al-Kikli (aka ‘Gheniwa’) on 12 May 2025, a prominent militia leader of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA), sparked intense clashes in Tripoli. The fighting involved rival militias, including the 444^th Combat Brigade, with gunfire, drones and anti-aircraft weapons reported. The Interior Ministry declared a state of emergency, urging residents to stay indoors.

Such violent eruptions are not inseparable from the state of political and security division afflicting Libya. The country remains fractured by a relentless political division, its people caught in the crossfire of two rival administrations vying for power. In Libya’s capital, Tripoli, the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU), led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, holds sway, striving to assert its legitimacy on the global stage. Meanwhile, in eastern Libya in Benghazi, the Government of National Stability (GNS) commands influence, bolstered by the House of Representatives (HoR) and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). This division, rooted in years of conflict following the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, has left Libya in a state of recurrent political instability, institutional fragmentation and recurrent violence.

With both sides locked in a bitter struggle for dominance, the rivalry between the two sides and rival armed supporters has stifled the transitional process. Previous efforts to overcome this division have rather been unsuccessful. National elections, initially slated to bring reconciliation and a unified government, have been indefinitely postponed since 2021, mired in disputes over electoral laws and eligibility criteria. As oil fields – Libya’s economic lifeline – become ‘bargaining chips’ in the power struggle, foreign powers quietly back their preferred faction. The persistence of these conditions has deepened the nation’s woes, with ordinary Libyans bearing the brunt of economic instability, periodic violence and a fragmented state.

The Eastern Libya-based parliament was reported to have adopted a national reconciliation and transitional justice law in January 2025. In parallel, in February 2025, a Charter for Peace and Reconciliation was signed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on the sidelines of the 38^th AU Summit. The Libyan parties that signed the charter included representatives from the Parliament, the High State Council, and representatives of presidential candidate Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, along with other Libyan dignitaries. Reflecting the persisting division in Libya, it was the head of the Presidential Council, Mohammed al-Menfi, who was present in Addis Ababa for the AU Summit, but did not sign the Charter. The Government of National Unity also did not send a representative to sign the reconciliation accord.

The UN remains the main actor in the Libyan peace process. Cognisant of this and following the departure of Abdoulaye Bathily from UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), the PSC, in the communiqué of its 1244^th Session, underscored ‘the urgent need for the United Nations Secretary-General to appoint his Special Representative for Libya.’ On 24 January 2025, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced the appointment of Hanna Serwaa Tetteh of Ghana as his Special Representative for Libya and Head of the UNSMIL, succeeding Abdoulaye Bathily of Senegal, who served as Special Envoy and Head of UNSMIL until May 2024. Since her appointment, UNSMIL established a 20-member Libyan Advisory Committee, a diverse group of experts tasked with untangling the contentious issues blocking the path to elections. Comprising respected Libyan figures with expertise in legal, constitutional and electoral matters, the committee was designed to propose technically sound and politically viable solutions, building on frameworks like the Libyan Political Agreement, the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) Roadmap and the 6+6 Committee’s electoral laws. By 20 May 2025, after more than 20 meetings in Tripoli and Benghazi, the committee delivered a comprehensive report to UNSMIL, outlining four options to address critical disputes, including the linkage between presidential and parliamentary elections, candidate eligibility criteria, voting rights and the electoral appeals mechanism. This report, described by UNSMIL as a ‘launching point for a country-wide conversation,’ aimed to guide the next phase of a Libyan-led political process, with public consultations planned to foster inclusivity and national consensus. However, consensus remains elusive.

On 17 May, the AU Commission Chairperson, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, issued a statement expressing deep concern over the armed clashes that broke out in Tripoli. While welcoming ‘the ceasefire and the return of cautious calm’, he emphasised the need for ‘demilitarising’ Tripoli. Calling for ‘national responsibility and engagement in a comprehensive political process to end Libya’s prolonged transition’, he urged all stakeholders to commit to ‘the National Reconciliation Charter signed in Addis Ababa.’ On the same day, the UNSC issued a Press Statement on the situation in Libya, expressing ‘deep concern at the escalation of violence in Tripoli in recent days, with reports of civilian casualties.’ The Security Council further ‘welcomed reports of agreed truces and called for these to be unconditionally respected and for a permanent ceasefire to be agreed.’

Despite the return of calm, on the political front, actions taken by the rival factions continue to escalate tension. The latest such development involved the announcement by the Head of the Presidential Council (PC) of several legislations that he said were adopted by the PC. While these legislations were rejected by some Libyan institutions, including some members of the PC and the speaker of the HoR, the Prime Minister of the GNU, Abdulhamid Debaiba, transmitted the legislations to the HoR and the High Council of State. Amid these developments, UNMSIL issued a warning against the risk of escalatory unilateral actions by political and security actors and urged them to refrain from taking steps that undermine the fragile situation in Libya.

As with previous sessions, tomorrow’s session is expected to discuss the recent armed clashes in Libya and the continuing political and institutional division impeding progress in the transitional process in the country. It is also expected that the PSC will get an update on developments around the reconciliation process and the status of and the follow-up to the Peace and Reconciliation Charter signed under the auspices of the AU. Also of interest for the PSC is receiving an update on the progress made in relocating the AU Liaison Office from Tunis to Tripoli, as directed by the AU Assembly at its 35th Ordinary Session.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC may urge the various Libyan stakeholders to summon the leadership and the compromise required to end the prevailing political stalemate and instability in the country, which is undermining development and security. Council is also likely to reiterate that the Skhirat Agreement signed on 17 December 2015 remains one of the credible bases and frameworks for a lasting political solution for the Libyan crisis. Council may welcome the Libyan Reconciliation charter signed in Addis-Ababa on 14 February 2025. The PSC may request the AU to take steps to ensure that the Charter receives the support of all Libyan stakeholders and is adequately aligned with other initiatives in Libya for reconciliation and transitional justice. The PSC may call on external actors to end interference in the affairs of Libya and support the rivalry among contending Libyan actors. The PSC may also emphasise the importance of improved coordination, harmonisation and complementarity among the UN, the AU, the League of Arab States and the EU to prevent overlapping efforts and competing initiatives in support of Libyan peace.