Tomorrow (30 October), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1240^th session to hold consultations on the Common African Position vis-à-vis climate change, peace and security (CAP-CCPS).

The session is expected to commence with opening remarks from Mohamed Omar Gad, Permanent Representative of Egypt to the AU and chair of the PSC for October, followed by statements from Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS). Representatives from the African Group of Negotiators and the Department for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment (DARBE) may also deliver statements during the session.

It is recalled that PSC’s 774^th session of May 2018 requested the Commission to undertake a study on the nexus between climate change and peace and security in the continent. This was further emphasised in the 1051^st session held in November 2021, during which the PSC urged the Commission to expedite the finalisation of a climate-related security risks assessment study to define the varying security impacts of climate change on the African continent while taking steps towards mobilising a common African position towards climate change and security. Moreover, the 35^th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly held in February 2022 requested the Commission to expedite the finalisation of a climate-related security risk assessment study, in consultation with Member States as well as to expeditiously develop a Common African Position on the nexus between Climate, Peace and Security in preparation for the COP27.

In response, the Commission, in collaboration with its partner Adelphi, conducted the Africa Continental Climate Security Risk Assessment (ACRA), which provides an in-depth analysis of key climate-security risks from a continental perspective and emerging good practices to address them based on regional assessments. This study has since informed the preparation of the chairperson’s report on climate change, peace and security nexus, which serves as a basis for developing a Common African Position on the topic.

In November 2023, at its 1184th session, the PSC received the ACRA study and the Chairperson’s report. The session welcomed the preliminary findings and requested the Commission to consolidate the ACRA study and the Chairperson’s report into a comprehensive document, stressing the importance of advancing a Common African Position on Climate Change, Peace and Security. It is worth noting that one of the key recommendations of the ACRA study and the Chairperson’s report is the adoption of a CAP on the Climate Change, Peace, and Security Nexus to amplify Africa’s collective voice and response.

The Commission, building on the key findings from two pivotal reports, has crafted a draft Common African Position on Climate Change, Peace, and Security (CAP-CCPS), marking a significant step toward a unified African response to climate-related peace and security risks. To enhance this draft, the Commission organised a three-day consultation from 27 to 29 August 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya. This event gathered diverse stakeholders, including Member States, Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs), the African Climate Commission, civil society organisations, African researchers, academics, experts, and other regional actors to engage in discussions. The consultation culminated in the completion of the draft CAP-CCPS.

With the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) approaching, scheduled in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November, tomorrow’s session serves as an occasion for the PSC to consider and enrich the draft CAP-CCPS. This would not only shape AU’s position on climate change, peace, and security but also provide a strategic guide for the AU, RECs/RMs and Member States to speak with one voice on the global stage. It also reinforces Africa’s leadership, underscored by a significant growth in dedicated institutions and cross-sectoral collaboration mechanisms established in recent years to address climate-related peace and security risks.

In tomorrow’s session, Bankole is expected to emphasise some of the key aspects of the CAP-CCPS, particularly highlighting the intersections of climate change, peace, and security in Africa. One of the insights of the CAP in this regard is how climate change exacerbates competition over natural resources such as land, water, and forests. When combined with existing socio-economic and political tensions, this competition can escalate into violent conflict, as seen in farmer-herder clashes. It also highlights how the vagaries of climate change in several regions of the continent impact agricultural productivity, destabilising essential resources like food, water, and energy. This disruption often leads to price hikes and shortages that can inflame existing grievances, potentially driving political instability.

Additionally, the CAP highlights the impact of climate-induced migration, especially the increased mobility from rural to urban areas. When urban centres are unable to provide adequate services for this influx, tensions between communities may arise, contributing to social friction. Climate-related hardships, particularly in regions where state institutions are weak, further create opportunities for non-state armed groups, such as militias, terrorists, and criminal organisations, to exploit governance deficits, recruit members, and, in some cases, weaponise natural resources, as observed in the Lake Chad region and Somalia.

The CAP addresses the geopolitical dimensions of climate-related peace and security risks, noting that external policies on food systems, trade, and energy shape the drivers of climate insecurity and affect Africa’s capacity to adapt to climate shocks. It further underscores that vulnerable groups—including women, youth—and African island states face disproportionate risks from climate change, amplifying the need for particular attention and strategies.

The CAP also outlines key responses to ameliorate the impacts of climate change on peace and security. It calls for conflict-sensitive and peace-positive climate strategies, advocates for progress on the loss and damage funding mechanism—particularly to address economic losses from greenhouse emissions for which Africa contributes little—and urges African leadership in global adaptation goals which are critical for peace and security. Despite contributing less than 4% of global emissions, Africa faces pressure to pursue low-carbon development. As a critical element of resilience in the face of climate change, safeguarding the development interests and needs of Africa focusing on just transition and balancing climate action and socio-economic advancement including through the utilisation of the natural resource endowment of the continent is also a major policy imperative for the continent, beyond loss and damage. The CAP emphasises integrating adaptive approaches across sectors, enhancing climate-conflict data collection, and promoting knowledge exchange. Additionally, it advocates for mainstreaming climate considerations into early warning systems, peace operations, and peacebuilding efforts, building partnerships, increasing climate awareness, and domesticating international frameworks to strengthen capacity. Recognising existing initiatives, the CAP highlights the need to integrate climate consideration into stabilisation strategies. Identifying the special needs and unique vulnerabilities of some African states is further emphasised, with emphasis on the imperative of tailored strategies for these countries.

The CAP outlines key recommendations for its implementation. Emphasising the integration of climate change, peace, and security into the PSC discussions and decisions, it recommends strengthening the AU climate security cluster, jointly run by the Departments of PAPS and Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment (DARBE), as a central coordinating body for climate-security mechanisms. In addition, it advises the AU Commission to collaborate closely with the Joint Liaison Group—a group that shares and collects information on the operations and work programmes of the three Rio conventions: the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)—to integrate climate, peace, and security considerations into these Conventions, ensuring context-specific mitigation and adaptation mechanisms.

For effective CAP implementation, the document highlights, understanding climate impacts on vulnerable groups is essential to develop an inclusive, strategic action plan with a focus on representation, coordination, and clear communication. It also calls for active coordination within the AU Commission and among AU departments and bodies—such as DPAPS, the AU Assembly and the Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC), the African Ministerial Conference on Environment (AMCEN), and African Group of Negotiators on climate change (AGN)—through a dedicated channel to track progress, changing vulnerabilities, and advancements in climate-security strategies.

The CAP further recommends policy steps across national, regional, and continental levels. Nationally, Member States should identify potential climate-conflict areas and enact preventive policies. Regionally, RECs should prioritise policies for the effective management of transboundary resources. At the continental level, the AU is urged to adopt the CAP promptly and incorporate its recommendations into policies and decision-making, solidifying its leadership in addressing the climate-security nexus.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to provide recommendations for consideration to the development of the CAP-CCPS. It may encourage Member States, RECs/RMs, and the AU to leverage this framework as a guiding document in upcoming climate negotiations and to strengthen Africa’s united voice on climate issues. The communiqué could include key highlights of the CAP, such as the climate-related security risks and responses to address these risks. The PSC may emphasise the  importance of strengthening the AU climate security cluster as a coordinating body for climate-security efforts, integrating climate considerations into all AU activities—especially in early warning and the prevention of climate-related conflicts—enhancing coordination among stakeholders and ensuring inclusivity and addressing the unique needs of vulnerable groups and African island states. The PSC may reiterate the importance of greater investment in risk prevention and resilience-building, including improved access to finance, investments in absorption capacities, and the rapid operationalisation of the loss and damage fund. It may also call for a significant increase in climate financing to address Africa’s special needs and circumstances.

* The discussion in this edition of ‘insights on the PSC’ is based on an earlier draft of the CAP-CCPS, as the latest version had not been circulated to the PSC Members at the time of publication.