Implications of the AU Commission leadership elections for the AU’s standing and role
Date | 4 April 2025
Tefesehet Hailu
Researcher, Amani Africa
The elections of the African Union (AU) Commission leadership held during the 38th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly that took place from 12 to 16 February 2025 could mark a turning point for the continental organisation. While they reveal strains in the state of intra-African cohesion and procedural gaps and complexities, what makes the elections of the AU Commission leadership remarkable is the timing of the elections. The elections were held, and the new AU Commission leadership was constituted at a time when major challenges and changes are unfolding both in Africa and globally, bringing Africa and the continental body to a crossroads.
Economic pressures, including soaring debt levels, a worsening cost-of-living crisis, and punishingly expensive cost of access to development finance, are eroding some of the gains made in recent decades as millions of people are pushed into extreme poverty. Meanwhile, conflicts are reaching unprecedented levels in both scale and geographic spread, further destabilising the continent as outlined in two major Amani Africa research reports (here and here), making the AU appear helpless and irrelevant. Efforts toward regional integration are also facing setbacks, exemplified by rising inter-state tensions and the recent withdrawal of the three Sahel countries from ECOWAS, exemplifying a fragmentation of regional blocs threatening the AU’s foundation. While demand for a democratic and accountable system of governance continues to rise and several countries show electoral democratic resilience in the face of challenges, democratic governance and constitutional rule remain under strain, with disputed elections and a resurgence of military coups threatening stability. At the same time, the global order is shifting, marked by the rise of multipolarity, rising geopolitical tensions, rapid technological advancements, and a dismembering and failing multilateral system.
As per the decision of the 22nd extraordinary session of the AU Executive Council, which decided the election to be based on the principle of inter-regional rotation, the Eastern region is to submit candidates for the role of Chairperson, and the Northern region is to submit candidates for the role of Deputy Chairperson. As a result, while the eastern region submitted three candidates from Djibouti, Kenya, and Madagascar for the chairperson positions, the Northern region submitted six candidates from Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Morocco.
The three candidates listed for the position of Chairperson were Raila Odinga, Former Prime Minister of Kenya; Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Foreign Minister of Djibouti; and Richard Randriamandrato, Former Foreign Minister of Madagascar. Despite having three candidates in the race, the main contenders were Mahamoud Ali Youssouf and Raila Odinga.
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf steadily gained votes across all seven rounds, increasing from 18 votes in Round 1 to 33 votes in Round 7. His main competitor, Raila Odinga, maintained a relatively stable vote count, starting with 20 votes in Round 1 and ending with 22 votes in Round 6, failing to expand his support base. Meanwhile, Richard J. Randriamandrato experienced a sharp decline, dropping from 10 votes in Round 1 to just 5 votes by Round 3, after which he was eliminated. This suggests that he had limited backing, and his supporters likely shifted to other candidates, primarily Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, contributing to him assuming a lead during subsequent rounds.
Interestingly, abstentions remained low in the early rounds (one vote per round) but surged to 14 in the final round. This spike suggests that some member states either refused to back the remaining candidate, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, or preferred to abstain once their favored candidates had been eliminated. The significant increase in abstentions also indicates that some member states may have sought to postpone the election. If that had happened, the Assembly might have followed the precedent of suspending the entire election as it did in 2016.
Before the election, it is recalled that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) urged its 16 member states to support Madagascar’s candidate, Richard Randriamandrato, in a last-minute letter published on February 12, 2025. The timing of the endorsement, just days before the election, suggests a last-minute push to consolidate regional votes, potentially influencing undecided member states. One can assess that the last-minute lobbying efforts have failed, but they were also decisive in shaping the final outcome of the elections.
When it comes to the election for the Deputy Chairperson position, the voting pattern reveals a competitive race primarily between Salma Malika Haddadi of Algeria and Latifa Akharbach of Morocco, with Hanan Morsi, despite appearing to be one of the favorites, failing to secure more than six votes and being eliminated early. Haddadi gained steady support across all rounds, starting with 21 votes in Round 1 and reaching 33 votes in Round 7, indicating strong and consistent backing from her supporters. In contrast, Akharbach experienced fluctuations, initially securing 21 votes but dropping to 18 in Round 2 before stabilising at 22 votes from Round 3 to Round 6.
In the election for the position of Deputy Chairperson, a notable trend during the various rounds of elections was the fact that the candidate Selma Hadadi maintained a lead position, thereby becoming the only candidate on the ballot after the sixth round. The most decisive moment came in Round 7 when Haddadi reached 33 votes, suggesting a shift of support from eliminated candidates and a strategic realignment among member states. However, similar to the election for the chairperson position, at the 7th round, there were 13 abstentions. This highlights the existence of a fault line in inter-state relations within the AU, which pits Algeria against Morocco, a fault line that threatens AU processes to be held hostage to regional tensions.
These elections underscore the intricate interplay of regional allegiances, strategic maneuvering, and procedural challenges within the AU. While candidates like Youssouf and Haddadi demonstrated the required 2/3rd majority support from AU member states, the struggle to get a two-thirds majority vote and the surge in abstentions reflect deeper divisions. These divisions could get in the way of pursuing the objectives of the AU as set out in the Constitutive Act and defending the interests of the continent. Accordingly, apart from adopting urgent strategic steps for arresting the spread and intensifying conflicts on the continent, mending these divisions for building a minimum level of consensus among AU member states is one of the most immediate pressing tasks for the new leadership.
With regards to the elections of the Commissioners, with East Africa and North Africa already occupying the Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson roles, candidates for the six commissioner positions were submitted from the Central, West and Southern Africa regions. However, only four of these positions were successfully filled: Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment (ARBE); Health, Humanitarian Affairs, and Social Development (HHS); Infrastructure and Energy; and Political Affairs, Peace, and Security (PAPS). Notably, the positions for Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry, and Mining, as well as Education, Science, Technology, and Innovation, remained vacant due to a combination of scoring requirements and regional representation rules.
The position for the Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry, and Mining was not filled because none of the seven candidates from the Southern and Central regions met the minimum threshold of 70%.
The election for the Commissioner for Education, Science, Technology, and Innovation also faced hurdles. Out of twelve candidates shortlisted by the High-Level Panel of Eminent Africans, only one candidate from the Southern region achieved a Category A ranking, scoring 90% or above. However, this candidate was ultimately eliminated after the position for Commissioner of Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment was filled by another candidate from the same region. This decision was as per the Revised Statute of the AU, which prioritises regional diversity and gender balance. Specifically, the two commissioner positions allocated to a single region must be occupied by one male and one female, preventing both roles from being held by candidates of the same sex. As such, since the ARBE portfolio was filled by a male candidate, the Southern region could not secure another position, leading to the elimination of the highly qualified candidate for Education, Science, Technology, and Innovation.
The result was that the two portfolios would be filled from the Central African region during the election set to take place during the extraordinary session of the Executive Council set for 15 April 2025. It is now reported that none of the candidates in the list of candidates from the Central Region submitted to fill in the two commissioner positions managed to meet the minimum requirements. This means that the two positions may end up being vacant for an extended period of time, with the potential risk of affecting AU’s participation in the G20 as the position of AU Sherpa remains unfilled.
The alphabetical order of the elections has further influenced the process. For instance, the election for the Commissioner of Health, Humanitarian Affairs, and Social Development was impacted by the prior filling of the two allocated positions for the Southern region. Initially, there were two candidates in contention: one from the Western region and one from the Southern region. However, by the time the election for this position took place, the Southern region had already filled its quota, leaving the Western region candidate as the sole viable option. This procedural nuance highlights how the sequencing of elections can significantly influence outcomes, often sidelining qualified candidates due to regional constraints.
The process of elections for the position of Commissioners revealed both the strengths and limitations of the AU’s commitment to regional representation and gender balance. While these principles are laudable, their implementation can sometimes result in unintended consequences, such as the inability to fill critical positions or the exclusion of highly qualified candidates. Moving forward, the AU may need to revisit its election procedures to strike a better balance between representation and meritocracy, ensuring that its leadership remains both diverse and highly capable.
Additionally, as pointed out by the Panel of Eminent Persons reviewing the qualifications of candidates, the process for the submission of candidates shows that member states are failing to put forward candidates who possess the requisite competence and skills. It appears that political considerations often influence candidate selection, leading to the exclusion of highly qualified individuals. This limits meritocracy and narrows the talent pool, as the authorities handling the identification of candidates at the national level may prioritise loyalty and connections over competence.
It is clear that the AU Commission leadership elections reveal that the election process is still fraught with challenges that necessitate further refinement. Additionally, the elections of the new AU Commission leadership mark a pivotal moment for the continent, offering a unique opportunity to redefine the Union’s approach and mode of work. If this leadership transition breaks from the business-as-usual approach of the past years to the profound changes and challenges, it can enable Africa to fend off and minimise the adverse impacts of a world in a destabilising tumult. Most notably, it can reposition the AU for advancing Africa’s integration and development continentally and its collective voice globally by leveraging its immense potential, driven by the world’s youngest population, huge natural resources endowment and reserve of renewable energy, vast arable land and a growing middle class.
The content of this article does not represent the views of Amani Africa and reflect only the personal views of the authors who contribute to ‘Ideas Indaba’
