The Peace and Security Council in 2019: The Year in Review
2019
Date | 03 January, 2020
Highlights
Various important developments have been witnessed in the work of the PSC in 2019. One such most notable engagement of the PSC was its handling of the transition in Sudan following the ouster from power of Sudan’s longtime President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 after sustained popular protest against his government for several months. Another important file with respect of which the PSC, working in tandem with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), achieved relative success in averting the derailment of the electoral process in the country and its descent into further political instability and violence was Guinea-Bissau. Although it has continued to face major challenges, another conflict situation in respect of which measures taken by the AU Commission, under the auspices of the PSC, in collaboration with the United Nations (UN) was the successful peace-making effort that led to the signing on 6 February of a peace agreement between the government of the Central African Republic (CAR) and 14 armed rebel groups in the CAR.
Open Session: Celebration of Amnesty Month
2019
Date | 4 September, 2019
Tomorrow (5 September) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to hold an open session to commemorate the celebration of amnesty month. The discussion is expected to focus on the progress made on the implementation of the AU Master Roadmap on silencing the guns by 2020 mainly the challenges and perspectives, with a focus on the Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Africa.
The Department of Peace and Security (PSD), particularly the representative of the Director of PSD and Acting Head of the Division on Defence and Security are expected to deliver briefing to the PSC. Also expected to make a statement is the Head of the UN Office to the AU. The Institute for Security Studies is expected to present as well.
Tomorrow’s session is taking place in line with the 2017 Assembly decision Assembly/AU/Dec. 645(XXIX), which after deliberating on the Inaugural Report of the PSC on the Implementation of the AU Master Roadmap on Practical Steps for Silencing the Guns in Africa by the Year 2020, declared the month of September each year, up to 2020, as “Africa Amnesty Month” for the surrender and collection of illegally owned weapons/arms.
It is expected that tomorrow’s session will address three inter-related thematic issues. The first relates to Security Sector Reform/Governance (SSR/G). The tailored approach, account should be had to the second is the commemoration of the Amnesty Month. The last is the implementation of the AU Roadmap on Silencing the Guns by 2020.
In the presentation from the Head of the Defence and Security Division. particular attention is expected to be given to SSR including the AU SSR program and the AU SSR Policy framework. Tomorrows’ session follows the inauguration meeting of the AU steering committee on security sector reform, held from 3 September 2019 in Addis Ababa.
The Silencing the Guns Roadmap recognizes the challenges around SSR policies. The Roadmap calls on the need to promote ownership of national SSR Programs in member states and the need to stipulate clear obligations and timelines on SSR in peace agreement including putting in place adequate follow up mechanisms.
For PSC members it would be of interest to identify the challenges relating to SSR in Africa. One set of issues expected to be highlighted is the sensitivities of member states and wrong perceptions that SSR concerns only post-conflict situations. Studies also show that another challenge in SSR relate to civilian possession and use of small arms and weapons. The recent report by the AUC and Small Arms Survey ‘Weapons Compass: Mapping Illicit Small Arms Flows in Africa’ has noted that civilian actors including individuals, private businesses and non- state armed groups hold almost 80% of small arms on the continent. Among the civilian held firearms only around 10% has been registered.
This is also an indication that security regimes in various African countries have been characterised by a range of non-state actors, including private security companies, local militias, guerrilla armies, community self-policing groups and others. With the lack or weakening monopoly use of force by the state particularly in countries affected by violence leads to the emergence of reliance by individuals and communities on self-organized security provision.
While a locally driven SSR is key in designing a tailored approach, account should be had to the transnational nature of insecurities. This also requires enhanced coordination among the security institutions of neighbouring countries including through the Regional Economic Communities/Mechanisms and the AU SSR processes.
Tomorrow’s session may also highlight that SSR is not solely a security matter and may call on for a comprehensive approach to reform encompassing state-society relationship. Therefore, its effective implementation may require the concerted efforts and cooperation among wide range of institutions in the government structure and the public at large.
There is also the challenge of effective formulation and proper implementation of SSR provisions in peace agreements. As the experiences of South Sudan and the Central African Republic show, this is one of the major sources of disruption of peace processes. In the light of the return of countries to conflict after signing of peace agreements, there is also interest in post-conflict reconstruction and development. Hence the PSC and participants may reflect on how to sustain peace including through enhanced consideration of the SSR dimension of peace and post-conflict processes.
In terms of the amnesty month, the recent report on small arms and light weapons referred to above highlighted the need for focusing on private possession and use of small arms and light weapons. In this regard the 860th meeting of the PSC stressed ‘the need for improved measures to regulate non-state actor possession of a small arms and light weapons, in order to prevent the diversion or misuse of weapons and encourages Member States to implement initiatives that are in line with the Africa Amnesty Month’.
However, there is a need for national level measures including the boosting of state-based provision of security services for encouraging the surrender of weapons in the hands of non-state actors and reporting on how and whether member states are observing the Amnesty month. Central to this is the need for finding ways of establishing or restoring the capacity particularly of states lacking effective provision of security to all their populations. This is directly linked to security sector governance as a measure of conflict prevention.
With respect to the AU Roadmap on Silencing the Guns, tomorrow’s session affords an opportunity for taking stock of where implementation of the Roadmap stands and the progress made towards achieving its ambitious objectives. Also important is the lessons to be learned from the process of elaboration and implementation of the Roadmap, including in terms of identification of areas of intervention and effective implementation of relevant measures. With 2020 only months away, it would be of particular interest to PSC members to discuss what will happen post-2020.
The expected outcome of the session is a press statement. The Council may highlight that the prospects for sustainable peace and stability are ensured by the extent to which SSR is anchored on the state of security broadly defined, instead of a narrow focus on certain security institutions. The PSC may reiterate its previous decisions for Member States and RECs/Regional Mechanisms to submit reports to Council, through the AUC, on the actions taken in implementing the Africa Amnesty Month, to feed in its report to the upcoming Assembly. With respect to the Roadmap on Silencing the Guns by 2020, the PSC could request the AU Commission to provide it with a comprehensive report reviewing implementation of the Roadmap and proposing on how the agenda on silencing the guns by 2020 will be followed up post-2020
The Internal Institutional Setup and Working Processes Shaping the Relationship between the AUPSC and the UNSC
2019
28 | December, 2019
The establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) under the 2002 Protocol to the AU Constitutive Act on the Establishment of the PSC 1 (PSC Protocol) and its launch in 2004 2 has transformed the peace and security landscape of the continent. Most notably, among others, it has changed the role of international engagement in the maintenance of peace and security in Africa. The PSC Protocol, in defining the principles governing the maintenance of peace and security in Africa, attributing leading role to the PSC and defining how the PSC interfaces with international actors, sets the expectations of the continent on the parameters of international action, including through the United Nations (UN), on peace and security in Africa.
Briefing on the situation in Somalia
2019
Date | 13 December, 2019
Tomorrow (13 December) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will receive a briefing on the situation in Somalia and the activities of AMISOM. As
Somalia is gearing up to hold elections next year, the PSC is expected to make a thorough assessment of the
progress made and the challenges that lie ahead. The AU Peace and Security Department and the Special Representative of the AUC Chairperson to Somalia and head of the AU Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), Francisco Madeira, are expected to brief the PSC. During the introductory part of the session, following the practice of the PSC the Inter‐ Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), particularly Ethiopia as the Chair of IGAD and African Member of the UN Security Council (A3), the UN office to the AU (UNOAU) and the European Union (EU) will also make their statements at the session are expected to make a statement.
Tomorrow’s session is expected to address various issues including the preparations for the 2020 national elections, the recent political and security developments in Somalia and the implementation of AMISOM’s mandate under the revised CONOPS adopted in May 2019. The 2020 election is a key milestone in the stabilization and peacebuilding of Somalia and the holding of “one man, one vote” election in the country for the first time in fifty years will be historic. In this regard, finalizing the Constitutional Review, adopting the amended Federal Constitution and the electoral law, allocating the necessary resources for the election and creating a safe and secure environment for the conduct of the election are considered priority areas. At the Somalia Partners Forum held on 2 October 2019, in Mogadishu, Somalia has committed itself to expediting the constitutional and legislative processes with a view to adopting the electoral laws this month and the Federal Constitution in June next year, while international partners agreed to provide the necessary support in this regard.
However, the prevailing tension between Mogadishu and the regions has been an obstacle in establishing broad political consensus in the country. There is concern that the situation may escalate ahead of elections.
Therefore, easing these tensions will be very critical to ensure the smooth and peaceful conduct of the election and lay the foundation for ensuring democratic and inclusive politics. This requires that constructive dialogue takes place between Mogadishu and the regions to
overcome differences and resolve the prevailing stalemate. Indeed the most recent agreement reached between the Federal Government of Somalia and the leadership of Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a (ASWJ) is a positive step. The meeting between President Farmajo and two former Presidents, Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud and Sheikh Sharif was welcomed by international partners as a step in the right direction and further engagement was
encouraged among key stakeholders at national and regional levels to ensure broader consensus on the holding of peaceful and credible elections. In terms of the regional dynamics, tensions were also rising between Somalia and Kenya in relation to their maritime dispute.
The meeting of President Farmajo and President Kenyatta in Nairobi last month to improve strained relations was very much welcomed. This is believed to have positive impact not only for the bilateral relations between the two countries but also the peace and security of the wider region.
The security situation in Somalia remains volatile. Al‐Shabaab remains a serious threat continuing to create havoc and mayhem but, according to AMISOM, there has been a decline in Al‐Shabab’s activities over the last three months owing to a number of factors, including an
increase in the number of lethal strikes against Al‐Shabaab by partners, with the arrival of the Somali rains, which made it difficult for the group to operate and the successive operations conducted jointly by Somali security forces and AMISOM. This is said to have forced the group to concentrate its activities in and around Mogadishu. The mortar attack on the Airport zone where AMISOM Headquarters and the UN compound are located is a case in point. Ensuring public security and safety in preparation for the election is absolutely vital and AMISOM is said to have repositioned itself to do that and also strengthen its support to the Somali electoral
security task force.
The implementation of the Somali‐led Transition Plan has been a matter of priority. The progress made in reforming the Somali security forces and in undertaking joint operations with AMISOM, including the recovery of some territories from Al‐Shabab and handover of forward operating bases to the Somalia National Army has been considered encouraging. However, the pace of implementation has been rather slow and there is a long way to go before the Somali National Army is ready to take over full and effective security responsibilities from AMISOM. Therefore, there is need to undertake the necessary assessment to make sure that the drawdown of AMISOM forces in accordance with resolution 2472 (2019) is calibrated with the evolving situation on the ground.
The humanitarian situation in Somalia has also been a cause of concern. According to the UN, heavy seasonal rains triggered floods affecting thousands of people in the southern part of the country. The situation is taking a heavy toll on the people. Farmlands and other infrastructures have been destroyed. There is need for urgent humanitarian response to reach out to people in the worst affected areas. In terms of Somalia’s long‐term peacebuilding needs and its development agenda, Somalia is making progress in its discussions with the international financial institutions towards securing a debt relief. The progress in its reform efforts, including in improving public financial management and revenue generation, as well as adopting a new National Development Plan have been recognized as positive steps by international partners. At the Somalia Partners Forum, it has agreed with international partners on “a Mutual Accountability Framework to narrow their joint focus to priority areas for action and resources in order to achievThe expected outcome of the meeting is a communique.
The PSC is expected to take note of the progress made in Somalia and underscore the need to expedite preparations to ensure a peaceful, free, fair and credible election next year. The Council may reiterate its concern over the prevailing tensions between the Federal Government and the regions and urge the Somali stakeholders to exert every possible effort to resolve their differences through constructive dialogue and negotiation with a view to building the necessary political consensus towards election 2020. In this context, it may welcome the meeting between President Farmajo and the two Former Presidents. It may also welcome the easing of tensions between Somalia and Kenya following the meeting of the leadership of the two countries.
The Council may express concern over the volatile security situation in Somalia and the continued attack by Al‐Shabaab. In this regard, it may underline the need to create a safe and secure environment for the holding of peaceful election next year. It may also point out the need for a comprehensive assessment of the security situation in the country in light of the conditions‐based gradual withdrawal of AMISOM in line with the relevant security council resolutions and the decisions of the AUPSC. The Council could express concern on the humanitarian situation and call for the mobilization of international assistance in support of people who are affected by the recent flooding. It may, on the other hand, express satisfaction with the progress made in the reform efforts and the positive momentum built in the discussion with the IFIs with regard to debt relief.
Briefing on conflict prevention, early warning and mediation in Africa
2019
Date | 12 December, 2019
Tomorrow (13 December) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to receive a briefing on conflict prevention, early warning and mediation in Africa. Fred Ngoga, Head of the Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Division (CPEWD) of the AU Commission is expected to brief the PSC. Representatives of Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and Regional Mechanisms (RMs) may also make interventions.
The briefing is expected to focus on two main issues. The first will be horizon scanning of threats to peace and security in Africa. A second possible aspect of the briefing may be an update on the status of development of conflict prevention tools.
One of the key principles that guide the operationalization of the PSC mandate is ‘early response to contain crisis situations to prevent them from developing into full‐blown conflicts.’ The PSC Protocol highlights the Council’s responsibility to ‘anticipate and prevent conflicts’ particularly through ‘early warning and preventive diplomacy’. Conflict prevention and early warning is also one of the key objectives of the AU articulated in the Constitutive Act.
However, during the last briefing on early warning, at its 669th session the PSC has indicated its concern with regards to the ‘continued cases of denials to objective/credible early warning signals of looming crises, thereby undermining the conflict prevention capacity of Council’.
Similarly at its 12th retreat held in June 2019 in Rabat, the PSC stressed challenges to conflict prevention including insufficient funding and resources, lack of political will of member states and sensitiveness around the categorization of looming crisis. Towards enhancing the capacity of the Council it has ‘decided to increase the regularity of briefing sessions with the AU Commission, on issues relating to looming crises with a view to assembling the relevant information for appropriate action’. Tomorrow’s session will also be an opportunity to deliberate on some of these challenges that are preventing the scaling up of early warning mechanisms for early action.
Within this context, the horizon scanning is expected to assess the security situation in the five regions and may identify the major threats witnessed across the continent. It may particularly look into the broad areas of root causes, structural factors and drivers of conflict including terrorism and radicalization, climate change, election, democratization, governance, respect of human rights and the rule of law as well socio‐economic inequalities and marginalization.
As part of its Border Program, CPEWD’s presentation may also highlight the tension that may be arising from border demarcation and delimitation disputes.
In terms of country and regional focus, it may pay particular attention to situations which are experiencing not only looming crisis but also countries and regions that may be experiencing relative stability while confronted with risks of relapse to violence. In this regard, the briefing may shed light on the developments in various countries, which are currently in political transition or have recently signed peace agreements or are in mediation processes including countries such as Sudan, South Sudan and CAR. It may also pay particular attention to close to twenty countries that will be holding elections in the coming year.
The briefing may also look into the cross‐border and regional aspect of conflict prevention. It may offer an analysis on regions that are experiencing conflicts and crisis emanating from intertwined and compounded factors affecting multiple countries. The presentation may also provide an assessment of key trends and analysis on changing dynamics and complexities surrounding the causes of conflicts.
In the light of the longstanding challenges of effective operationalization of the conflict prevention mandate of the PSC, it would be of interest for PSC members to look into the modalities for a more effective engagement in conflict prevention. In this regard, consideration can be given to Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol that provides for the possibility of the PSC holding informal consultations. As a meeting format that has not been adequately explored, informal consultation particularly at the level of Committee of Experts of the PSC avails useful avenue for considering early warning briefings and exploring options for preventive action.
After the overall overview of peace and security risks and threats, the presentation in its second part may look into conflict prevention tools and update on their progress. This will also be an opportunity to promote and enhance the utilization of continental and regional mechanisms by policy makers.
Article 2 of the PSC protocol stipulates the need for the Council to be supported by the various mechanisms including Continental Early Warning System in fulfilling its mandate. CEWS primarily consists of two components: (i) the continental observation and monitoring center, known as “The Situation Room” and (ii) the observation and monitoring units of the Regional Mechanisms for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution (RMs), which collect and process data and are linked directly to the Situation Room. To this end, it will be critical to deliberate on mechanism that enhance the synergy and close collaboration between the AU and RECs/RMs in providing up‐to‐date and relevant information to the PSC as well for the PSC itself to strengthen its working relations with the regional entities.
Considering the ongoing AU institutional reform process and increased PSC engagement with RECs/RMs, Council members may wish to recall the commitments made during PSC’s 12th retreat which tasked the PSC jointly with RECs/RMs policy organs to establish ‘criteria for assessing looming crises and emerging situations… to ensure … common understanding of parameters, benchmarks and principles that define entry points for interventions’.
The presentation by the division may also provide an update on the activities of Panel of the Wise as a key pillar that is established for preventive diplomacy and in order to support the efforts of the PSC and those of the AUC Chairperson, particularly in the area of conflict prevention. The briefing may provide an update on the recently concluded annual statutory meeting of the Panel of the Wise as well as the AU Special Envoy Representatives. PSC members may also follow up further on the work of the Special Envoys considering the decision at its 12th retreat ‘to hold each year a PSC session during which AU Special Representatives/Envoys and AU High Representatives will provide briefings’.
The presentation may also provide an update on thematic issues related to Gender, Peace and Security Program and the work of FemWise as well as their harmonization with other gender centered mechanisms in the Commission including the Office of the Special Envoy on Women, Peace and Security and the Gender Directorate.
As part of the Youth for Peace program activities the presentation may also raise the developments around the ‘Study on the Roles and Contributions of Youth to Peace and Security in Africa’, which was recently considered by the PSC.
The expected outcome of the session was unknown during the production of this ‘Insight’. The PSC may urge member states to strengthen their efforts at the national level as well as support the efficiency of early warning and prevention mechanisms at AU and RECs/RM level. Towards operationalizing its mandate, the PSC may also urge for the strengthening of the reporting tool of the Commission through enhancing of the systematic provision of early warning reports. The PSC may also urge the Commission to provide regular briefings and horizon scanning to equip members with relevant data for effective decision‐making. To this end, the PSC may consider adopting informal consultation as the format for a more regular and systematic consideration of early warning and conflict prevention sessions including through the convening of such informal consultations at the level of Committee of Experts.
Briefing on Silencing the Guns in Africa
2019
Date | 10, December 2019
Tomorrow (10 December) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will consider the draft report on the implementation of the AU Roadmap on Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020, which will be presented to the next ordinary session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union scheduled to take place in Addis Ababa in February next year.
Silencing the Guns is a flagship initiative of the African Union to promote prevention, management and resolution of conflicts in Africa. It provides the overarching strategy guiding the efforts of the organization in ensuring a peaceful and secure Africa and laying a solid foundation for the
implementation of Agenda 2063. As part of the Solemn Declaration of the 50th Anniversary of the African Union, African states committed “to achieve the goal of a conflict‐free Africa, to make peace a reality for all our people and to rid the continent of wars, civil conflicts, human rights violations, humanitarian disasters and violent conflicts and to prevent genocide.” They further pledged “not to bequeath the burden of conflicts to the next generation of Africans and undertake to end all wars by 2020.”
The AUPSC submitted a Master Roadmap of practical steps to Silencing the Guns by 2020, which was endorsed by the Assembly in January 2017. In view of the impending deadline, the upcoming AU Summit in February next year is expected to take stock of the progress made and the challenges encountered in the efforts made towards achieving the objective of silencing the guns in Africa. In this context, the 32nd ordinary session of the Assembly requested the PSC, with the support of the Commission, to take steps for the elaboration of a comprehensive report on the status of implementation of the AU Master Roadmap.
Therefore, the AUPSC will consider the draft report before its submission to the Assembly. A decision has already been made that the AU theme of the year for 2020 would be “Silencing the Guns: Creating Conducive Conditions for Africa’s Development”.
For PSC member states, some of the issues of interest include the degree of progress made and the remaining challenges as well as the measures to be taken for addressing the challenges towards increased progress for silencing the guns in Africa. Although fragile, some progress has been made towards resolving some of the most intractable conflicts in Africa. The signing of the revitalized peace agreement in South Sudan had revived hope for restoring peace. The guns have by and large been silent but without implementing the letter and spirit of the agreement, there is a serious risk of reversal. Ensuring accelerated progress in the extended pre‐transition period of 100 days will be very critical in this regard. The signing of the peace agreement in Central African Republic also rescued the country from falling into the abyss but
challenges still abound. Furthermore, the signing of the power‐sharing deal by the Sudanese stakeholders with the support of the AU and Ethiopia has set a very good example in the search for African solutions to African problems.
The normalization of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea also ended long standing stalemate that impeded stability in the Horn of Africa. However, without resolving some of the outstanding issues, sustaining the peace will be a challenge. Progress has also been made in recent years in strengthening governance including in holding peaceful elections in Africa. This said, strengthening institutions of governance, promoting inclusive politics, responding to the needs and aspiration of the people remains a daunting challenge.
By AU’s own admission, some of the limited progresses achieved thus far are a far cry compared to the lofty goals and objectives set out in the AU Master Roadmap for silencing the guns in Africa and the scale of remaining challenges. The continent no doubt continues to face serious threats to its peace and stability. Parts of Africa remain mired in conflict and new challenges to peace and security have emerged.
Governance deficits coupled with the global economic slowdown and its attendant impact on commodity prices as well as the youth bulge and high rates of unemployment have made many African countries vulnerable to instability and conflict. Together with this, the mismanagement of diversity and competition over power and resources have also contributed to fueling conflicts in some parts of the continent. In other parts, state fragility and weak state institutions have increased the risk of those countries that have emerged out of conflict relapsing into yet another cycle of conflict and violence.
Therefore, that a lot remains to be done towards silencing the guns in Africa is all the more evident and, hence, the need to redouble efforts to fasttrack implementation. There is a recognition of this fact and a dedicated Unit under the Bureau of the AU Commission Chairperson has been established.
Considering the new global geo‐political dynamics, enhancing the role of the AU and regional mechanisms in the promotion and maintenance of peace and security in Africa is not an option. The institutional reforms underway will be critical in strengthening the governance and security architectures of the AU to accelerate efforts towards silencing the guns in Africa. Ensuring greater coordination and synergy between the AU and regional mechanisms is also vital. Furthermore, the revitalization of the AU Peace Fund will contribute to addressing the financing needs of the AU in its prevention and peacemaking efforts. At a time when there is donor fatigue, enhancing greater ownership of the AU’s programmatic activities and enhancing the contribution of member State to the Peace Fund has become all the more indispensable. This should be driven by the conviction that building a conflict free Africa is essentially the responsibility of the AU and its Member States, their people and their institutions, including civil society.
Although no outcome by way of statement or communique is expected, the AUPSC is expected to endorse the draft report with revisions and recommend it for adoption by the Assembly. It may express appreciation to the AU High Representative for Silencing the Guns in Africa and recommend that a plan is put in place for addressing challenges faced in the implementation of the AU Master Roadmap.
The PSC may also welcome the adoption of resolution 2457 (2019) and commend the role of Equatorial Guinea and other members of the A3 for their important contribution in facilitating its adoption. It may also reiterate the need for all AU Member States to submit their reports on their implementation of the AU Master Roadmap.
Ministerial session on ‘National Reconciliation, Restoration of Peace, Security and Rebuilding of Cohesion in Africa’
2019
Date | 05 December, 2019
Tomorrow (5 December 2019) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council is scheduled to hold a ministerial session under the theme ‘National Reconciliation, Restoration of Peace, Security and Rebuilding of Cohesion in Africa’.
Apart from members of the PSC, non‐PSC AU member states including Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Mali and Niger are also expected to participate at the ministerial meeting.
This theme was inscribed into the program of the month for December on the initiative of Angola. The session is also slated to take place in the capital Luanda. This is illustrative of the increasing regional and continental role Angola has come to play. It is to be recalled that in September Luanda played host to a major continental conference on the promotion of the culture of peace.
Indicating the significance of this session for Angola, the President of Angola, João Lourenço, is expected to open the session. Angola’s experience with national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of cohesion in the aftermath of the long civil war and the divisions it sowed is expected to be highlighted.
The ministerial session is expected to provide a platform to discuss and share the experience of participating states in national reconciliation and in building inclusive and stable societies. A number of issues would be of interest for PSC members. One such issue is to identify what kind of reconciliation processes – national reconciliation commission, national dialogue or national consultations – that member states deployed in the search for national reconciliation and the institutional and policy measures they developed for inclusion, representation, or sharing of power for achieving inclusive structures of government and fostering national cohesion.
Another and critical issue is how to muster decisive political leadership and the will to make difficult compromises as a means of building trust and achieving national reconciliation. As the challenges in South Sudan or Mali show, this more than anything else is the key ingredient for the success of initiatives for national reconciliation and rebuilding of cohesion.
The timing of the theme of this session is of particular importance as it coincides with commencement of the 2020 AU theme of the year focusing on Silencing the Guns in Africa as 2019 gets concluded in a few weeks’ time. Within this context, tomorrow’s session is expected to draw out the particular contribution of its thematic focus towards the making progress to meet the ambition of silencing the guns in Africa. In this respect and as part of the effort to silence the guns, an important consideration is the need to paying a more central attention to the inclusion and promotion of arrangements for national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of national cohesion in peace processes for resolving existing conflicts or as part of the initiative for restoring peace, security and rebuilding cohesion in emerging crisis situations such as in Cameroon or contested political transitions such as Ethiopia.
Indeed, national reconciliation and rebuilding of cohesion are crucial at all stages of the conflict cycle from prevention to post‐conflict reconstruction and development. Such initiatives are important for countries having peace processes for resolving existing conflicts such as the Central African Republic or South Sudan or Mali and for countries in a post‐conflict phase such as Cote d’Ivoire. Initiatives for national reconciliation and rebuilding of cohesion are also important for conflict prevention in countries with relative peace and stability. This is illustrated for example by recent experiences of some AU member states such as the Building of Bridges Initiative of Kenya and the provision, as part of the on‐going transition facing contestations, for a national reconciliation commission in Ethiopia.
In all these different settings, some of the issues for the PSC and its member states include the role to be played by the AU and how to support initiatives for national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of cohesion. The AU, including through the PSC, has on various occasions called for the ratification of various AU instruments. There are however gaps on how to give them domestic legislative, institutional and policy expression and translate them into forms of inclusive and representative political and socio‐economic governance structures.
This is not the first time that the PSC convenes a session on subject related to the theme of tomorrow’s session. Its 347th, 383rd, 409th, 525th, 672nd and 726th sessions also focused on a related theme. Indeed, the first time the PSC held ministerial level session on a related theme was at its 393rd session. That session was held in Algiers, Algeria, on 29 June 2013 under the theme ‘National Reconciliation: A Crucial Factor for Security, Stability and Development in Africa’. Apart from highlighting what it called elements for conducting national reconciliation, the communique of this 383rd ministerial session underscored that ‘national reconciliation is an imperative for overcoming divisions arising from conflict and restoring social cohesion, in order to ensure lasting stability and progress’.
The communique of the 409th session of the PSC recommended to the AU Assembly to declare ‘2014‐2024 as a decade of reconciliation in Africa with a view to consolidating peace, stability and sustainable development on the continent’, leading to the AU Assembly decision of 31 January 2014 declaring ‘2014–2024 as the Madiba Nelson Mandela Decade of Reconciliation in Africa’. Although it has not been implemented, one of the important pronouncements of the 525th press statement of the PSC was the decision to make the theme a standing thematic agenda of the PSC to be reflected in the annual indicative calendar.
The Press Statement of the last PSC session on this theme at the 726th session of the PSC emphasized the importance of comprehensive transitional justice and reconciliation process, as being key to effectively preventing relapses and laying a strong foundation for sustainable peace in countries emerging from violent conflicts. Affirming the critical importance of national ownership, it also underscored ‘the importance of building and further enhancing the capacity of local, national and regional justice systems, including peace committees, peacebuilding ministries and national reconciliation commissions, as well as community and traditional justice systems.’ It also reiterated previous calls for expediating the process of the development and adoption of AU transitional justice policy instrument.
The review of the previous sessions highlights that at least two elements were lacking. First, although these previous sessions benefited from the 2006 AU Policy on Post‐Conflict Reconstruction and Development, when these previous sessions were held the AU transitional justice policy did not exist. Second, the mechanism for following up the measures required to advance this thematic agenda. Tomorrow’s session takes place in a different context. First, it is convened after the adoption of the AU Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP), which was adopted by the AU Assembly in February 2019. Apart from consolidating the key messages of previous PSC sessions on this theme and bringing them into a coherent framework, this Policy presents, drawing from the rich and diverse national reconciliation, justice and peace‐making experiences of the continent, the principles, guidelines, mechanisms and benchmarks for the implementation of national transitional justice processes including national reconciliation and truth seeking. For its implementation, the AUTJP is complemented, as highlighted in the preface to the policy that AU Chairperson Mousa Faki Mahamat wrote, by the Study of the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights on Transitional Justice and Human and Peoples’ Rights.
The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. It is expected that the PSC would underscore national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of national cohesion to be indispensable for achieving progress in Africa’s quest for Silencing the Guns and should receive particular attention during the 2020 theme of the year. The PSC is also expected to call for the implementation of previous decisions on the theme particularly the decision of its 525th for making the theme of the session a standing agenda item of the PSC. The PSC could also welcome the adoption by the AU Assembly of the AUTJP and urge member states to use the Policy in pursuing national reconciliation, restoration of peace, security and rebuilding of cohesion. The PSC could also call on the AU Commission and the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights in collaboration with member states to support the implementation of the AUTJP in peace processes, peacebuilding, conflict prevention and national reconciliation initiatives and report to it on existing and emerging national initiatives.
Provisional Program of Work for the Month of December 2019
2019
Date | 29 November, 2019
Angola assumes the role of the monthly chairpersonship of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) for the month of December. Prepared under the leadership of Angola’s Permanent Representative to the AU, Ambassador Francisco José Da Cruz, the provisional program of work includes some five substantive sessions, including one country specific session and a ministerial meeting.
The monthly PSC program of work starts with the ministerial meeting that will be held from 4‐6 December in Luanda under the theme ‘National Reconciliation, Restoration of Peace, Security and Rebuilding of Cohesion in Africa’. The meeting is expected to provide a platform to discuss countries’ experience in national reconciliation and in building inclusive and stable societies. Non‐PSC member states are also expected to participate at the ministerial meeting.
On 10 December the PSC will consider the two reports that will be presented to the Assembly in February 2020: the draft Report on the Activities of the PSC and the State of Peace and Security in Africa and the Draft Report on the Implementation of the AU Master Roadmap on Silence the Guns in Africa by 2020. On the same day the PSC will consider and adopt the Provisional Programme of Work of the PSC for January 2020.
On 12 December the PSC is expected to be briefed on elections in Africa. Following that, the PSC will hold a session in preparation to the High Level Seminar on Peace and Security in Africa. The annual seminar, which is planned to take place in Libreville in January 2020, is expected to look at the relationship between the PSC and the three African members in the UNSC, the A3.
The PSC will be briefed on two agenda items on 13 December. First, it will receive a briefing on the situation in Somalia and African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) activities. The last time the PSC held a meeting on Somalia and AMISOM was on 7 August 2019. The session scheduled on 13 December will be part of the quarterly reporting and review mandated by the communiqué of 848th session of the PSC.
During the second session of the day, the Council is expected to be briefed on Conflict Prevention, Early Warning and Mediation in Africa. This presents an opportunity for the AU Peace and Security Department to present to the PSC its horizon scanning briefing on changes to existing conflicts or new emerging conflict situations.
From 16‐19 December, the Military Staff Committee of the PSC will attend the 12th Ordinary Meeting of the Specialized Technical Committee on Defence, Safety and Security and the 15th Meeting of African Chiefs of Defence Staff and Heads of Safety and Security, in Cairo. In addition to these agenda items, the provisional program of the month also envisions in footnotes a possible briefing on the situation in Sudan, meetings of the Committee of Experts and Military Staff Committee for which the dates are yet to be set.
Consideration of the MNJTF Mandate Renewal
2019
Date | 28 November, 2019
Tomorrow (28 November) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold a session on the security situation in the Lake Chad Basin region and to consider the mandate renewal of the Multi‐ National Joint Task Force (MNJTF).
The representative of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) is expected to brief the Council. LCBC member states as well as Benin are also expected to deliver their statements. The AU Department of Peace and Security (PSD) and UNOAU representative may also make an intervention.
It is to be recalled that the PSC at its 816th session has renewed the mandate of the MNJTF for 12 month effective from 31 January 2019. The communique LCBC requested the LCBC Secretariat to provide biannual briefing on the implementation of the Regional Strategy for the Stabilization. It is to be recalled that the LCBC briefed the PSC at its 838th session in April 2019 and the Council called for a ‘comprehensive and rapid implementation of the Regional Strategy’. As a follow up to this, it is also expected that the LCBC presents an update on the implementation of the strategy. The Strategy, drawn up with the support of the AU PSD as part of post conflict reconstruction and development work, was adopted by the LCBC member states on 30 August 2018 and later on 5 December 2018 by the PSC.
It is expected that the briefing is to provide highlights of the activities that were undertaken since the last PSC session on the matter. The LCBC briefing may include the outcome of the second meeting of the Lake Chad Basin Governors’ Forum held in Niamey, from 17‐18 July 2019. The meeting, which brought together eight regions of the Lake Chad Basin countries affected by Boko Haram primarily aimed at enhancing cross‐border cooperation and the implementation of the Regional Strategy. One of the key outcomes was the pledge made by donors where they committed around 60 million USD to the establishment of a stabilization facility that will coordinate the implementation of the Strategy. The PSC may request an update regarding the establishment of the facility as well as the practical measures taken in implementing the Strategy.
In accelerating the implementation of the Regional Strategy, the PSC may also recall its previous decision, which tasked the AU Commission to support the LCBC secretariat to ‘develop a clear roadmap for the implementation of the strategy’, a resource mobilization strategy and the convening of a solidarity conference under the Africa Solidarity Initiative. The statement by the PSD may provide details on the support provided and on the remaining tasks.
The briefing may make reference to the 2020‐2024 eight‐ point action plan in combatting and eradiation terrorism adopted at the ECOWAS extraordinary summit in Ouagadougou on 14 September 2019. It is expected that the mandate renewal will consider the priority areas that were identified by the ECOWAS meeting which range from coordination, training, financing and dialogue. The action plan, which is expected to serve as resource mobilization tool is expected to be finalized and adopted at the ECOWAS ordinary session on 21 December 2019. The framework may also offer guidance for the PSC in assessing not only the military operation of the MNJTF but also in examining the deliverables against the comprehensive set priority areas in the Regional Strategy.
The MNJTF has recorded operational successes in many of the offensives undertaken in the region including the liberation of occupied territories and in reducing the capabilities of the group. But various factors continue to enable proliferation of terrorist groups in the wider region. It is reported that new members coming from Libya and Syria have joined the ranks of terrorist groups in the region including North East Nigeria.
Despite the success the MNJTF registered, the insurgency remains to be capable of orchestrating attacks and providing support for other groups. The UN Secretary General Report on West Africa and the Sahel indicates that in the first six months of 2019, ‘despite counter‐terrorism efforts, the “Islamic State West Africa Province” faction of Boko Haram expanded its area of operations’. The armed group continued to use suicide bombers against civilians and security and defence forces. Between January and April alone 189 terrorist attacks took place in the northern states of Nigeria, resulting in 453 deaths and 201 kidnappings.
In a dangerous development, the group has increased the use of suicide vehicle‐borne improvised explosive devices (IED) against national security forces and the MNJTF in the countries of the Lake Chad region. In the past six‐month there has also been renewed attacks on army deployments and civilians.
It is also critical for tomorrow’s session to not only highlight the military efforts that aim at addressing immediate security concerns but also to ensure that there is adequate deliberation on addressing root causes and restoring sustainable peace, which are key elements identified in the Regional Stabilization Strategy. Indeed, the presidential statement of the 8592nd meeting of the UN Security Council, held on 7 August 2019, underlined ‘the need for security efforts to be aligned with political objectives, to enable the restoration of civilian security, the establishment of effective governance to deliver essential services, and the revival of local economies to provide livelihood opportunities for surging youth populations’. These are also key elements identified in the Regional Strategy. The upsurge of terrorist groups in the region have added urgency to the imperative of enhancing national ownership and prioritizing political strategies, notably active and sustained engagement of national leaders in the affected areas and strengthening state institutions and bolstering the legitimacy of local structures of government in those areas and others susceptible to penetration of terrorist groups.
The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC may commend the LCBC member states and Benin in their counter‐terrorism efforts. It may welcome the outcome of the meeting of the Lake Chad Basin Governors’ Forum on the implementation of the Regional Strategy. It may call for increased efforts in realizing the objectives of the Strategy. It may task the AUC to support member states in developing implementation tools to monitor and track progress by also aligning it with the 2020‐2024 ECOWAS counter‐terrorism action plan. It may also reiterate the need for the convening of a solidarity conference. The PSC could also express concern on the volatile security situation in the region despite the sustained efforts of the MNJTF and may in this regard urge the prioritization of political processes that facilitate the enhancement of legitimate structures of governance at the local levels and the delivery of social services. Considering the political and security developments in the region, it may renew the mandate of the force for another 12 months.
Briefing on the situation in Guinea Bissau
2019
Date | 18 November, 2019
Monday (18 November) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold a briefing session on the situation in Guinea-Bissau. The briefing is taking place in line with the PSC communiqué of the 892nd session, which decided ‘to review the situation in Guinea Bissau on 18 November 2019’. Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission (SRCC) for Guinea Bissau, Ambassador Ovidio Pequeno is expected to brief the Council.
On 29 October, following the dismissal of the entire cabinet of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes by President Jose Mario Vaz, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued a communiqué labelling the President’s decree as illegal. It also threatened to take punitive measures against individuals that hinder the election scheduled to take place on 24 November.
At its session held on 6 November 2019, the PSC received a briefing from the SRCC. It also heard statements from the Minister of Justice of Guinea- Bissau, Niger, as chair of ECOWAS and the African members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), A3. In the communique it adopted following the session, the PSC declared ‘null and void’ what it termed ‘the unconstitutional Decrees issued by President Vaz’. It called on the newly appointed officials to recuse themselves from their assigned positions and recognized Aristides Gomes’s government as the only legitimate government of the country. It fully endorsed ECOWAS’s warning to apply punitive measures against individuals undermining the peace process and affirmed the inviolability of the 24 November schedule for holding the presidential elections.
On 8 November, the Extraordinary Summit of the ECOWAS Heads of State and Government was held in Niamey, Niger. The communiqué, which deemed the President’s move as unconstitutional, demanded the immediate resignation of the new Prime Minister Faustin Fudut Imbali who was appointed by President Vaz on 29 October. While this precipitated the resignation of Imbali on the same day, ECOWAS also urged the legally instituted Prime Minister Gomes to resume his work.
As part of the decision of the ECOWAS extraordinary Summit, a high-level mission of Heads of State and Government is dispatched to Bissau on Saturday 16 November. The mission led by Niger, Chair of ECOWAS involves Heads of State of Cote D’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea and Nigeria. The mission is expected to meet with President Vaz.
In addition to the political negotiation and as part of its preventive efforts, ECOWAS has also decided to strengthen its military presence in the country. To this end it has decided to increase the number of troops ‘to respond to all challenges, before, during and after the elections’. Before the heads of states and government visit, the missions of ECOWAS Chiefs of Defence Staff have already began their engagement with President Vaz, Prime Minister Gomes and other political actors.
While Prime Minister Aristides welcomed the move of ECOWAS to increase its military presence as a measure required to secure the presidential elections, some opposition parties including former Prime Minister and candidate to the presidency of the country Umaro Sissoco Embaló and the Social Renewal Party (PRS) have voiced their disapproval over what they considered as an invasion and interference in national sovereignty. The Prime Minister has also met with the Chiefs of Defence Staff of Niger, Nigeria and Togo ahead of the high- level mission’s arrival.
Apart from providing support for the electoral process, the move by ECOWAS also aims at preventing any form of unconstitutional change of government and military coup. Guinea-Bissau, which has experienced successive military interventions including most recently in 2012, has the conditions that make it vulnerable to similar risk. Although in its communiqué ECOWAS, like the PSC, encouraged the security forces to remain neutral, it is also preparing for any security risks and threatened sanction against individuals that may compromise the constitutional order. The ECOWAS Commission is also tasked to submit a list of individuals that disrupt the electoral process to undertake immediate measures.
The interference of drug trafficking and related crime in the political process of the country is also another major concerning security issue. After several allegations on one of the leading political parties, the PAIGC, its leader and candidate in the presidential elections on 24 November Domingos Simões Pereira, recently stated that the resources utilized by the party in the electoral campaign are not financed through organized crime. However, the government’s capacity in curbing organized crime has been limited, hence making drug trafficking a key security area that requires the support of neighbouring countries.
Despite the crisis affecting the country, the Deputy Executive Secretary of the National Electoral Commission (CNE), Idrissa Djaló, has confirmed on Tuesday 12 November 2019, that all the necessary technical and financial conditions are fulfilled in order to conduct the presidential election on 24 November. Djaló has given his statement after visiting the Commission’s materials warehouse in the capital including model ballot papers with all the details of the candidates competing in the elections.
Indeed, apart from the constitutional crisis and the multipronged efforts of ECOWAS, another area that would be of interest for members of the PSC in tomorrow’s session is the technical and logistical preparations for the 24 November elections. This is an area in respect of which the AU Commission including the SRCC are expected to update the PSC on AU’s engagement to support the electoral process.
Right after the ECOWAS extraordinary summit, the UNSC members held consultations on 11 November. They concluded by issuing press elements expressing support and welcoming the efforts of ECOWAS. Earlier on 4 November the UNSC adopted a presidential statement endorsing the efforts of ECOWAS and welcoming the press statement of the AUC Chair.
The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC may commend ECOWAS’s efforts particularly the dispatch of the high level mission on Saturday and the meeting of Chiefs of Defence Staff. It is also expected to endorse the communiqué of the ECOWAS extraordinary summit held on 8 November. It may call on the political actors in Guinea Bissau to support the efforts by ECOWAS leading up to the 24 November elections. It may underline that any attempt of unconstitutional change of government will not be tolerated as established by various AU instruments and may urge political actors to refrain from any activities that may derail the political process. In this respect, it is expected to endorse ECOWAS move to increase the number of troops as important preventive measure. The PSC may also call on the government to strengthen its efforts in fighting drug trafficking, which continue to interfere in the efforts aimed at bringing lasting peace in the country. Given the short time remaining to the election, less than 10 days, the PSC may task the AUC to enhance its support for the electoral process working in concert with ECOWAS.