Briefing on the situation in Guinea Bissau

2019

Date | 18 November, 2019

Monday (18 November) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold a briefing session on the situation in Guinea-Bissau. The briefing is taking place in line with the PSC communiqué of the 892nd session, which decided ‘to review the situation in Guinea Bissau on 18 November 2019’. Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission (SRCC) for Guinea Bissau, Ambassador Ovidio Pequeno is expected to brief the Council.

On 29 October, following the dismissal of the entire cabinet of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes by President Jose Mario Vaz, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued a communiqué labelling the President’s decree as illegal. It also threatened to take punitive measures against individuals that hinder the election scheduled to take place on 24 November.

At its session held on 6 November 2019, the PSC received a briefing from the SRCC. It also heard statements from the Minister of Justice of Guinea- Bissau, Niger, as chair of ECOWAS and the African members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), A3. In the communique it adopted following the session, the PSC declared ‘null and void’ what it termed ‘the unconstitutional Decrees issued by President Vaz’. It called on the newly appointed officials to recuse themselves from their assigned positions and recognized Aristides Gomes’s government as the only legitimate government of the country. It fully endorsed ECOWAS’s warning to apply punitive measures against individuals undermining the peace process and affirmed the inviolability of the 24 November schedule for holding the presidential elections.

On 8 November, the Extraordinary Summit of the ECOWAS Heads of State and Government was held in Niamey, Niger. The communiqué, which deemed the President’s move as unconstitutional, demanded the immediate resignation of the new Prime Minister Faustin Fudut Imbali who was appointed by President Vaz on 29 October. While this precipitated the resignation of Imbali on the same day, ECOWAS also urged the legally instituted Prime Minister Gomes to resume his work.

As part of the decision of the ECOWAS extraordinary Summit, a high-level mission of Heads of State and Government is dispatched to Bissau on Saturday 16 November. The mission led by Niger, Chair of ECOWAS involves Heads of State of Cote D’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea and Nigeria. The mission is expected to meet with President Vaz.

In addition to the political negotiation and as part of its preventive efforts, ECOWAS has also decided to strengthen its military presence in the country. To this end it has decided to increase the number of troops ‘to respond to all challenges, before, during and after the elections’. Before the heads of states and government visit, the missions of ECOWAS Chiefs of Defence Staff have already began their engagement with President Vaz, Prime Minister Gomes and other political actors.

While Prime Minister Aristides welcomed the move of ECOWAS to increase its military presence as a measure required to secure the presidential elections, some opposition parties including former Prime Minister and candidate to the presidency of the country Umaro Sissoco Embaló and the Social Renewal Party (PRS) have voiced their disapproval over what they considered as an invasion and interference in national sovereignty. The Prime Minister has also met with the Chiefs of Defence Staff of Niger, Nigeria and Togo ahead of the high- level mission’s arrival.

Apart from providing support for the electoral process, the move by ECOWAS also aims at preventing any form of unconstitutional change of government and military coup. Guinea-Bissau, which has experienced successive military interventions including most recently in 2012, has the conditions that make it vulnerable to similar risk. Although in its communiqué ECOWAS, like the PSC, encouraged the security forces to remain neutral, it is also preparing for any security risks and threatened sanction against individuals that may compromise the constitutional order. The ECOWAS Commission is also tasked to submit a list of individuals that disrupt the electoral process to undertake immediate measures.

The interference of drug trafficking and related crime in the political process of the country is also another major concerning security issue. After several allegations on one of the leading political parties, the PAIGC, its leader and candidate in the presidential elections on 24 November Domingos Simões Pereira, recently stated that the resources utilized by the party in the electoral campaign are not financed through organized crime. However, the government’s capacity in curbing organized crime has been limited, hence making drug trafficking a key security area that requires the support of neighbouring countries.

Despite the crisis affecting the country, the Deputy Executive Secretary of the National Electoral Commission (CNE), Idrissa Djaló, has confirmed on Tuesday 12 November 2019, that all the necessary technical and financial conditions are fulfilled in order to conduct the presidential election on 24 November. Djaló has given his statement after visiting the Commission’s materials warehouse in the capital including model ballot papers with all the details of the candidates competing in the elections.

Indeed, apart from the constitutional crisis and the multipronged efforts of ECOWAS, another area that would be of interest for members of the PSC in tomorrow’s session is the technical and logistical preparations for the 24 November elections. This is an area in respect of which the AU Commission including the SRCC are expected to update the PSC on AU’s engagement to support the electoral process.
Right after the ECOWAS extraordinary summit, the UNSC members held consultations on 11 November. They concluded by issuing press elements expressing support and welcoming the efforts of ECOWAS. Earlier on 4 November the UNSC adopted a presidential statement endorsing the efforts of ECOWAS and welcoming the press statement of the AUC Chair.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC may commend ECOWAS’s efforts particularly the dispatch of the high level mission on Saturday and the meeting of Chiefs of Defence Staff. It is also expected to endorse the communiqué of the ECOWAS extraordinary summit held on 8 November. It may call on the political actors in Guinea Bissau to support the efforts by ECOWAS leading up to the 24 November elections. It may underline that any attempt of unconstitutional change of government will not be tolerated as established by various AU instruments and may urge political actors to refrain from any activities that may derail the political process. In this respect, it is expected to endorse ECOWAS move to increase the number of troops as important preventive measure. The PSC may also call on the government to strengthen its efforts in fighting drug trafficking, which continue to interfere in the efforts aimed at bringing lasting peace in the country. Given the short time remaining to the election, less than 10 days, the PSC may task the AUC to enhance its support for the electoral process working in concert with ECOWAS.


PSC Consideration of the MNJTF Mandate Renewal

2019

Date | 28 November, 2019

Tomorrow (28 November) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold a session on  the  security  situation  in  the  Lake  Chad  Basin  region  and to consider the mandate renewal of the Multi‐National Joint Task Force (MNJTF).

The  representative  of  the  Lake  Chad  Basin  Commission  (LCBC) is expected to brief the Council. LCBC member states as well as Benin are also expected to deliver their statements.  The  AU  Department  of  Peace  and  Security  (PSD) and UNOAU representative may also make an intervention.

It is to be recalled that the PSC at its 816th session has renewed  the  mandate  of  the  MNJTF  for  12  month  effective from 31 January 2019. The communique LCBC requested  the  LCBC  Secretariat  to  provide  biannual  briefing on the implementation of the Regional Strategy for  the  Stabilization.  It  is  to  be  recalled  that  the  LCBC  briefed the PSC at its 838th session in April 2019 and the Council  called  for  a  ‘comprehensive  and  rapid  implementation of the Regional Strategy’. As a follow up to  this,  it  is  also  expected  that  the  LCBC  presents  an  update on the implementation of the strategy. The Strategy,  drawn  up  with  the  support  of  the  AU  PSD  as  part of post conflict reconstruction and development work,  was  adopted  by  the  LCBC  member  states  on  30  August 2018 and later on 5 December 2018 by the PSC.

It is expected that the briefing is to provide highlights of the  activities  that  were  undertaken  since  the  last  PSC  session on the matter. The LCBC briefing may include the outcome of the second meeting of the Lake Chad Basin Governors’ Forum held in Niamey, from 17‐18 July 2019. The  meeting,  which  brought  together  eight  regions  of  the Lake Chad Basin countries affected by Boko Haram primarily  aimed  at  enhancing  cross‐border  cooperation  and the implementation of the Regional Strategy. One of the key outcomes was the pledge made by donors where they  committed  around  60  million  USD  to  the  establishment of a stabilization facility that will coordinate the implementation of the Strategy. The PSC may  request  an  update  regarding  the  establishment  of  the facility as well as the practical measures taken in implementing the Strategy.

In  accelerating  the  implementation  of  the  Regional  Strategy, the PSC may also recall its previous decision, which  tasked  the  AU  Commission  to  support  the  LCBC  secretariat to ‘develop a clear roadmap for the implementation of the strategy’, a resource mobilization strategy  and  the  convening  of  a  solidarity  conference  under the Africa Solidarity Initiative. The statement by the PSD may provide details on the support provided and on the remaining tasks.

The briefing may make reference to the 2020‐2024 eight‐point action plan in combatting and eradiation terrorism adopted  at  the  ECOWAS  extraordinary  summit  in  Ouagadougou on 14 September 2019. It is expected that the mandate renewal will consider the priority areas that were  identified  by  the  ECOWAS  meeting  which  range from coordination, training, financing and dialogue.  The  action plan, which is expected to serve as resource mobilization tool is expected to be finalized and adopted at the ECOWAS ordinary session on 21 December 2019. The  framework  may  also  offer  guidance  for  the  PSC  in  assessing not only the military operation of the MNJTF but  also  in  examining  the  deliverables  against  the  comprehensive set priority areas in the Regional Strategy.

The MNJTF has recorded operational successes in many of the offensives undertaken in the region including the liberation  of  occupied  territories  and  in  reducing  the  capabilities of the group. But various factors continue to enable  proliferation  of  terrorist  groups  in  the  wider  region. It is reported that new members coming from Libya and Syria have joined the ranks of terrorist groups in the region including North East Nigeria.

Despite  the  success  the  MNJTF  registered,  the  insurgency remains to be capable of orchestrating attacks and providing support for other groups. The UN Secretary  General  Report  on  West  Africa  and  the  Sahel  indicates that in the first six months of 2019, ‘despite counter‐terrorism efforts, the “Islamic State West Africa Province”  faction  of  Boko  Haram  expanded  its  area  of  operations’. The armed group continued to use suicide bombers  against  civilians  and  security  and  defence  forces. Between January and April alone 189 terrorist attacks  took  place  in  the  northern  states  of  Nigeria,  resulting in 453 deaths and 201 kidnappings.

In  a  dangerous  development,  the  group  has  increased  the use of suicide vehicle‐borne improvised explosive devices  (IED)  against  national  security  forces  and  the  MNJTF in the countries of the Lake Chad region. In the past six‐month there has also been renewed attacks on army deployments and civilians.

It  is  also  critical  for  tomorrow’s  session  to  not  only  highlight the military efforts that aim at addressing immediate  security  concerns  but  also  to  ensure  that  there is adequate deliberation on addressing root causes and restoring sustainable peace, which are key elements identified  in  the  Regional  Stabilization  Strategy.  Indeed,  the presidential statement of the 8592nd meeting of the UN Security Council, held on 7 August 2019, underlined ‘the need for security efforts to be aligned with political objectives, to enable the restoration of civilian security, the  establishment  of  effective  governance  to  deliver  essential services, and the revival of local economies to provide  livelihood  opportunities  for  surging  youth  populations’. These are also key elements identified in the Regional Strategy. The upsurge of terrorist groups in the  region  have  added  urgency  to  the  imperative  of  enhancing national ownership and prioritizing political strategies,  notably  active  and  sustained  engagement  of  national leaders in the affected areas and strengthening state  institutions  and  bolstering  the  legitimacy  of  local  structures of government in those areas and others susceptible to penetration of terrorist groups.

The  expected  outcome  is  a  communiqué.  The  PSC  may  commend the LCBC member states and Benin in their counter‐terrorism efforts.  It  may welcome  the outcome  of the meeting of the Lake Chad Basin Governors’ Forum on  the  implementation  of  the  Regional  Strategy.  It  may call for increased efforts in realizing the objectives of the Strategy. It may task the AUC to support member states in developing implementation tools to monitor and track progress by also aligning it with the 2020‐2024 ECOWAS counter‐terrorism  action  plan.  It  may  also  reiterate  the  need for the convening of a solidarity conference. The PSC  could  also  express  concern  on  the  volatile  security  situation in the region despite the sustained efforts of the MNJTF and may in this regard urge the prioritization of political processes that facilitate the enhancement of legitimate  structures  of  governance  at  the  local  levels  and the delivery of social services. Considering the political and security developments in the region, it may renew the mandate of the force for another 12 months.


Briefing on the Situation in South Sudan

2019

Date | 14 November, 2019

Tomorrow (14 November), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will have a session on the situation in South Sudan. This comes two days after the
expiry of the extended deadline for the implementation of the pre‐transitional tasks. It is expected that Joram Biswaro, the Special Representative of the Chairperson of the AU Commission for South Sudan, is expected to brief the PSC. The last time the AUPSC met to discuss South Sudan was one month ago when it considered the report on the Chairperson of the Commission on the situation in the country. This session is expected to focus on assessment of the latest situation in South Sudan, including the extension of the pre‐transitional period by 100 days and the role the AU could play for completion of the pretransitional tasks within the 100 days.

Considering the limited progress made in implementing the pre‐transitional tasks, no one was sure what would happen on 12 November 2019. IGAD and the rest of the international community were insisting that the extended timeline is non‐renewable, and that an inclusive transitional government should be formed on the set timeline. President Kiir was also saying that the transitional government will be formed. By contrast, Dr.Reikh Machar was insisting that his forces will not join the transitional government without meaningful progress on the implementation of the pre‐transitional tasks, particularly relating to Transitional Security Arrangements and the determination of the number and boundaries of states.

The last two weeks have seen increased activities to avoid the worst and salvage the revitalized peace agreement, including the preservation of the cessation of hostilities and the ceasefire, which ensured a modicum

of stability. The Security Council had visited Juba and talked with the parties. IGAD had also dispatched a delegation to Juba to undertake similar consultations.

Furthermore, members of the Troika also visited Juba and did the same. President Salva Kiir and Dr. Reikh Machar met face to face on three occasions, twice in Juba and the last one in Kampala.
What eventually saved the situation is the Tripartite Summit that was convened in Kampala by Sudan and
Uganda in their capacity as co‐guarantors of the agreement. The meeting was critical to facilitate agreement between President Kiir and Dr. Machar to extend the pre‐transitional period for one hundred (100) days effective from 12 November and review progress after fifty days from that date. The two principals also agreed to establish a mechanism involving the parties and the guarantors to monitor the implementation of the pending tasks. Under the circumstances, the outcome of the Kampala Tripartite Summit was the least bad option in trying to salvage the revitalized peace agreement and preserve the cessation of hostilities and the ceasefire agreement, thereby avoiding a relapse into another cycle of violence.

Of critical importance for tomorrow’s PSC session is the key question of whether the parties will use this window to expedite the implementation of the critical pending
tasks. In this regard, it would be of interest to PSC member states to know the role that the AU and its office in Juba would play in supporting the process for achieving the implementation of the pre‐transitional tasks including, a clear roadmap and follow‐up mechanism.

In terms of helping effective utilization of the limited window of opportunity that the 100 days extension presented, IGAD held two important meetings as a follow‐up to the Kampala Tripartite summit. IGAD convened a consultative meeting of the parties in Addis Ababa on 9 November 2019, ahead of the extraordinary meeting of its Council of Ministers on 10 November 2019. The consultative meeting endorsed the outcome of the Kampala Tripartite Summit, including the extension of the pre‐transitional period for 100 days effective from 12 November 2019. The IGAD Council of Ministers, which met on the following day welcomed the outcome of the consultative meeting of the parties, including the endorsement of Kampala Tripartite Summit communique.

The IGAD Council of Ministers initiated the steps to be taken towards the completion of the key pre‐transitional tasks within the 100 days. The IGAD Council instructed
the IGAD Special Envoy for South Sudan in collaboration with R‐JMEC, CTSAMVM and the AU Commission to urgently organize a workshop for security mechanisms in Juba to agree on a roadmap with clear timeline for the implementation of Transitional Security Arrangements within the one hundred (100) days extension. It further directed its Special Envoy to facilitate a meeting of the Parties to the R‐ARCSS to resolve the issue of the number of states and their boundaries and any other outstanding issues pertaining to the establishment of the Revitalized‐ Transitional Government of National Unity (R‐TGoNU).

While these two areas are expected to be a priority, the IGAD Council set the ambition higher by requesting the Special Envoy to continue engaging the non‐signatories to the R‐ARCSS and organize a retreat for the Leaders of the Parties to the RARCSS for trust and confidence building as soon as possible. The Special Envoy has also been entrusted with closely monitoring the progress of implementation of the critical pending tasks during the extended Pre‐Transitional Period in close collaboration with Revitalized‐Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (R‐JMEC) and CTSAMVM. The Ministers called on the Incumbent TGoNU to immediately disburse the USD 100 million to National Pre‐Transitional Committee (NPTC) to enable the completion of the critical pending tasks. In addition, they called on regional and international partners to provide the necessary support to expedite the implementation of pending tasks, while appreciating those that have already done so.

After its visit to Juba, the UN Security Council (UNSC) met and held consultations on the situation in South Sudan last week. The UNSC expressed concern on the lack of substantive progress in the implementation of key elements of the revitalized peace agreement and called on the parties to reaffirm their commitment to the full implementation of the agreement, to clear benchmarks and the cessation of hostilities and ceasefire agreements.

The Council also called on the parties to make immediate progress on pre‐transitional tasks, including the security arrangements and a process for the resolution of the number and boundaries of states in order to allow for the peaceful formation of an inclusive transitional government.

Secretary‐General Antonio Guterres, in welcoming the decision of the IGAD Council of Ministers based on to the agreement reached in Kampala under the auspices of the Co‐Guarantors, urged the parties to use this extension to make further progress on critical benchmarks, including security arrangements and the number and boundaries of states, to allow for the formation of an inclusive transitional government of national unity. He also echoed the call made by IGAD for the Government of South Sudan to release the pledged amount of $100 million through a transparent and accountable mechanism.

The expected outcome of the session is a communique. AUPSC could welcome the face‐to‐face meeting between President Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar, leader of the SPLMIO, the signatory of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the South Sudan Conflict (R‐ARSSC). It may also welcome the communique adopted by the Tripartite Summit in Kampala, including the agreement reached to extend the pre‐transitional period by hundred days. The Council may endorse the outcome of the consultative meeting of the parties in Addis Ababa and the decision adopted by the IGAD Council of Ministers. It could also urge the parties to demonstrate the necessary political will and commitment to the Revitalized Peace Agreement as the only viable framework for resolving the conflict in South Sudan and build trust and confidence to expedite the implementation of the critical pending tasks to facilitate the formation of an inclusive transitional government. In this connection, it may support the call by IGAD for developing a clear roadmap and the setting up of mechanisms for monitoring and follow up of implementation in collaboration with the AU Commission. It may also call on the parties to exert every possible effort to finding a consensual solution to the issue of number of states and their boundaries. The AUPSC may urge the TGoNU to avail the necessary resources for the implementation of the agreement and appeal to AU member states and partners to provide financial and technical assistance in this regard.


Annual Interaction Between the Peace and Security Council and the United Nations Peace building Commission

2019

Date | 11 November, 2019

Tomorrow (11 November) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold its annual interaction with the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission (UNPBC). The Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support, UNPBC Chair and Vice Chair and the representative of UN office to the AU (UNOAU) are expected to address the Council. The Department of Peace and Security is also expected to deliver a statement.

The 633rd PSC session held on 18 October 2016 decided to institutionalize its partnership with UNPBC through annual interactive sessions alternating between Addis Ababa and New York, joint missions to conflict affected countries and joint retreats. Consequently, the Chairs of UNPBC have held consultations in Addis in 2017 and in New York on the margins of the 12th Annual Joint Consultative Meeting between the AUPSC and the UN Security Council in 2018. The UNSC in its resolution 2282 (2016) and 2457 (2019) has similarly urged the UNPBC to hold regular exchanges of information with relevant regional and sub regional organizations in particular with AU Commission.

Drawing on these decisions and the practice of the previous years, UNPBC is expected to provide update on its activities in the continent including recent field visits undertaken in conflict affected countries. The interactive session may also focus on particular regions and countries namely Central African Republic (CAR), Liberia, Sierra Leone, the Mano River Union and the Sahel. The two bodies are also expected to assess the progress made in the implementation of the previous deliberations and commitments.
The Chair of the thirteenth session of the UNPBC Guillermo Fernández de Soto Valderrama when outlining the 2019 work plan in January, highlighted the UNPBC’s partnership with the PSC should particularly ‘continue to focus on conflict prevention, good governance, human rights and national reconciliation’. These priority thematic areas are also anchored in the 2017 MoU signed between AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, Smail Chergui, and Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support Oscar Fernandez-Taranco. The Sahel region and Liberia are also key priority areas in 2019 as indicated in the statement of the Chair.

In line with the work plan of the UNPBC, the respective country configuration Chairs may brief the Council on their activities. The Sahel region, which has also been a key area of focus at the recently concluded 13th joint consultative session of the PSC and UNSC, is expected to feature prominently in tomorrow’s session. PSC and UNPBC may discuss the deteriorating security situation in the region and the increasing attacks against civilians and security forces witnessed in Mali and Burkina Faso. In a high-level meeting on Burkina Faso convened by UNPBC in September 2019 participants underscored the worrying trend of the spike in terrorist attacks and spill over effects in other countries of the region.

The latest deadly attacks in the region are also an indication of the increased strength, capacity and territorial presence of terrorist groups and networks operating in the Sahel region. Hence, it is critical to assess mechanisms in which security operations can also be accompanied by political discussions and negotiations.

The Mano River region is another area on which tomorrow’s session is expected to deliberate. It would be of interest for the PSC to get UNPBC’s assessment of the situation in Mano River region and its support in Liberia after the completion of United Nations Mission in Liberia’s (UNMIL) mandate on 30 March 2018. In terms of the support for Liberia, the UNPBC is expected to highlight the work undertaken over the past 18 months in facilitating a smooth transition, in sustaining the peacebuilding plan and averting any gap that might be created after the withdrawal of the mission. The two bodies may particularly emphasize on the need for joint efforts in sustaining the peacebuilding process in the country.

Similarly, in the case of Sierra Leone the UNPBC may discuss the efforts in supporting the establishment of national institutions mandated to promote peace and national cohesion. Also, worth noting is the important role of ECOWAS in the region and the need to harmonize efforts at various levels in order to provide coordinated support in the countries.

The CAR, another priority country during the recent PSC-UNSC annual consultative meeting, is also expected to be on the agenda in tomorrow’s interactive session. It is to be recalled that there was a UNPBC visit to CAR jointly undertaken with the Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support and the Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in February 2019. The visit, which took place in the aftermath of the signing of the Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in the Central African Republic aimed at supporting National Recovery and Peacebuilding Plan and exploring the role of the UNPBC in the preparation of the 2020-21 planned elections. The Chair of CAR configuration, permanent representative of Morocco has then briefed the UNSC on the key findings of the field visit.

At a high-level event on the situation in CAR held in June 2019 the Chair of CAR configuration, described the situation in the country as ‘layers of unresolved conflict, weak state presence throughout the country, persistence of armed groups, and more than half the population in need’.
Most recently, alarming developments that may jeopardize the signed peace agreement have surfaced. The leaders of two rebel group who joined the government as military advisers after the signing of the agreement have recently resigned from their positions. Other groups continue to violate provisions of the agreement and have resumed competition for more territorial control. Opposition leaders have also voiced their strong disapproval of rebel leaders joining the government apparatus. The proliferation of armed groups continues to be a critical obstacle of the peace processes. A new armed group which is not part of the February agreement has emerged in northern CAR.

In addition to the country configuration Chairs the Vice Chairs may also use the opportunity to engage the PSC. Particularly Egypt as one of the Vice-Chairs of UNPBC may brief the PSC on the establishment and activities of AU Centre for Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development (PCRD). Egypt as the 2019 Chair of the AU has been championing the PCRD work of the Union by supporting the establishment of the Centre.

The expected outcome of the session is unknown during the production of this ‘Insight’. However the PSC may adopt a communiqué. It is expected that the PSC would welcome the work of the UNPBC and commend it for the briefing it has provided on the activities in specific countries. It may call on the UNPBC to continue its support to countries emerging from conflict. The PSC could also express concern over the relapse some countries and regions back to conflict, which undermines the gains that were made so far. It may underline that sustainable peace requires addressing root causes of conflict hence the importance of the security and development nexus. The PSC may further call on the need to foster the strategic partnership to ensure the provision of a comprehensive and multi-sector peacebuilding support to countries and regions.


The situation in Guinea Bissau

2019

Date | 6 November, 2019

Tomorrow (6 November), at 3pm the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will have a session on the situation in Guinea Bissau, which was postponed from the October program of work of the PSC. The representative of Guinea Bissau, Chair of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), United Nations Office to the African Union (UNOAU), African Members to the UN Security Council (A3) Cote D’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea and South Africa are expected participate in the session. The Director of Peace and Security Department and Director of Political Affairs to make statements on the latest political developments and the elections planned on 24 November.

The last time the PSC held discussion on Guinea Bissau was on 11 June 2019 where it urged ‘the President of the Republic of Guinea Bissau to urgently initiate consultations, with a view to appointing a Prime Minister, in accordance with the will of the people, as expressed in the legislative elections of 10 March 2019 and, in due course, to announce the date of the presidential election scheduled for this year before the expiration of his current term on 23 June 2019’.

On 16-18 June the PSC, acting on its communique of 11 June, undertook a field visit to Guinea-Bissau. During the visit the PSC held consultations with various Guinea-Bissau political actors, including President Jose Mario Vaz. During the two days visit the delegation of the PSC urged the president to announce the date for Presidential elections before June 23rd, 2019 and appoint the Prime Minister. The delegation also pressed all parties to constitute the National Assembly and review the National Constitution.
On 18 June, the day the PSC concluded its visit, the President announced that presidential elections would be held on 24 November. He also appointed Aristides Gomes as prime minister on 22 June following a high- level mission of ECOWAS to Bissau on 19-20 June. ECOWAS had to mobilize further diplomatic efforts during its 29 June summit to have President Vaz accept the composition of the new government under Prime Minister Gomes. ECOWAS summit gave Vaz a deadline of 3 July to appoint a new government, based on the prime minister’s proposal, and a new attorney general, to be chosen by consensus. In apparent exchange, the summit ECOWAS summit decided that Vaz remains in office, after expiry of his term, until the election, although the management of the affairs of the state was left in the hands of the new government under the new Prime Minister Gomes. On the same day, Vaz appointed the government and a new attorney general based on Prime Minister Gomes’ proposal. The composition of the government mainly consists of PAIGC members and supporters.

With the political wrangling continuing unabated even after the formation of the new government, the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel, the AU, the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP) and ECOWAS undertook a mission to Bissau. The communiqué of the 7 October joint field mission of these international bodies strongly urged for the presidential election to be held during 2019.

On 14 October, the Supreme Court of Justice of Guinea- Bissau announced the provisional list of 13 candidates for the upcoming presidential elections, including the incumbent President who is expected to run as an independent candidate after being unable to secure the nomination of the opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MADEM-G15). Other candidates include former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira of PAIGC, who was the initial candidate to lead the new government formed on 29 June, and Nuno Gomes Nabian for the United People’s Assembly – Guinea-Bissau Democratic Party (APU-PDGB). Although Nabian’s APU/PDGB is part of the governing coalition, it has recently formed an alliance with opposition Party for Social Renewal (PRS) to unite the Balanta ethnic group, which has strong links with the military, in support of Nabian’s candidacy. The former Prime Minister Umaro Sissoko Embalo is to run under the flag of MADEM G-15.

Other issues of concern that are of interest to the PSC include the manoeuvring of some elements to delay the election and cause the breakup of PAIGC, whose candidate is considered likely to win. The incumbent President as well continues to speak on the need for major reforms including constitutional reforms before the holding of the presidential elections. This request may also stem from the intention of postponing the elections beyond 2019, since the proposed changes require a long period of time.

It is against the backdrop of these rising political tensions that President Vaz issued a decree on 28 October dismissing the government of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes and appointing a new Prime Minister. With only three weeks left for the election to take place later this month, the decision by the President has further aggravated the tense political situation in the country causing serious consternation. With the terms of President Vaz having ended but ECOWAS agreeing for him to stay on without executive power until the 24 November election, the contestation over the legality of the decree he issued dissolving the government has put the country in a constitutional crisis, giving rise to questions on the compatibility of this action with the AU ban on unconstitutional changes of government. On 29 October, ECOWAS issued a communiqué calling the President’s decree illegal and reiterating its full support for Aristide Gomes and his government. Furthermore, it threatened to impose punitive measures against those found to be obstructing the upcoming election.
In his statement issued on 30th October, the AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat also expressed his deep concern regarding the Presidential Decree dissolving of the Government and reiterated his support for the efforts of ECOWAS calling on all the political actors to respect its decision and honour the commitments made in this regard. In the same vein, the UN Secretary-General issued a statement the same day expressing serious concern on the unfolding developments in Guinea-Bissau and calling on all political stakeholders to abide by the decisions taken by ECOWAS regarding the governance arrangements in Guinea-Bissau until the presidential election on 24 November.

The Chair of the 2048 UN Sanctions Committee on Guinea-Bissau, Ambassador Anatolio Ndong Mba of Equatorial Guinea has also been actively seized with the matter. He was in Bissau last week as part of the Committee’s mission to the country in carrying out its mandate. The United Nations Peacebuilding Commission is also engaged on the situation in Guinea Bissau and the Chair of the PBC Configuration on Guinea Bissau, Ambassador Mauro Vieira of Brazil was in Bissau last week to encourage the holding of a free, fair, credible, transparent and peaceful presidential election on 24th of November. He has written a letter to the President of the Security Council on 30 October 2019, sharing his observations from the visit. The decree was issued to dissolve the government after he returned from his visit and he urged Bissau Guinean political actors to exercise maximum restraint and resort to dialogue to resolve their differences.

The United Nations Security Council met on 30th October under any other business to discuss the latest developments in Guinea-Bissau and Cote d’Ivoire as the penholder initiated a presidential statement. On 4 November, the UNSC adopted the presidential statement. In the Statement, the UNSC expressed its
full support for the communiques that ECOWAS and AU Commission issued on 29 and 30 October respectively and the urgent need to hold the presidential election on 24 November.

The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC may urge the government of Guinea Bissau and the other political actors to hold the election on 24 November as per the set timeline and work towards a fair, free and peaceful election come 24 November. It may express serious concern on the recent developments in relation to the dissolution of the government by President Vaz, which may constitute a breach of AU rules on constitutional governance, and reiterate its support to the ECOWAS efforts including its plan to take punitive measures. It may call upon all political stakeholders in Guinea Bissau to respect the ECOWAS decision, refrain from aggravating the already tense political situation in the country and exert every possible effort to resolve their differences in full compliance with outcome of the March 2019 parliamentary elections and the ECOWAS plan. The PSC may welcome ECOWAS’s decision to extend the mandate of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea- Bissau (ECOMIB) for a period of six months starting from 1 October 2019. It may request the AUC to strengthen support to the Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission (SRCC) for Guinea Bissau and his office particularly in relation to the upcoming election. Apart from requesting the AUC to deploy electoral and human rights observers to the country, it could also consider appropriate action in accordance with the Lomed Declaration of 2000 and Addis Ababa Charter on Democracy Elections and Governance.


Open Session on Living Together in Peace

2019

Date | 05 November, 2019

Tomorrow  (5  November),  the  African  Union  (AU)  Peace  and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold an Open Session  on  Living  Together  in  Peace  based  on  United  Nations General Assembly (UNGA) Resolution 72/130. It was Algeria, as chair of the Month that initiated this item as agenda of tomorrow’s session.

During the session, Algeria as the PSC Chair of the month is  expected  to  make  a  presentation.  A  representative  from the UN may also deliver a statement. The presentations  will  be  followed  by  interventions  from  member states and invited participants.

On  8  December  2017,  the  UNGA  adopted  Resolution  72/130, which designated 16 May as the ‘International Day  of  Living  Together  in  Peace’  and  a  means  of  mobilising international efforts “to promote peace, tolerance,  inclusion,  understanding  and  solidarity”.  The  resolution highlights the need to promote the culture of peace and non‐violence and underscores the importance of  respect  for  religious  and  cultural  diversity  across  the  world. It calls on States and world leaders to work in collaboration  with  religious  communities  and  find  ways  to promote reconciliation, resolve differences and pave the way for peace and sustainable development.

Tomorrow’s  open  session  is  expected  to  provide  the  forum for participants to suggest practical steps for the realization  of  Resolution  72/130’s  goals  in  the  political,  economic, social, religious, cultural and educational spheres of public life. Resolution 72/130 recognizes living together  in  peace  as  ‘accepting  differences  and  having  the ability to listen to, recognize, respect and appreciate others, as well as living in a peaceful and united way’. As such, the session is also anticipated to serve as a means for  participants  to  reflect  on  the  value  and  practical  applications of ‘living together in peace’.

The  UNGA,  through  adopting  Resolution  72/130,  called  upon UN Member States, agencies and other International and Regional Organizations, as well as Civil Society  Organizations  including  Non‐Governmental  Organizations and individuals, to devote 16 May to celebrate “International Day of Living Together in Peace” to  respecting  culture  and  other  local,  national  and  regional customs, and taking educational initiatives and sensitization  activities.  It  particularly  tasked  the  United  Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)  to  facilitate  the  commemoration  of  annual  International Day of Living Together in Peace.

María  Fernanda  Espinosa  Garcés,  President  of  the  73rd  Session of the UN General Assembly, in her opening statement  at  the  celebration  of  2019  International  Day  of Living Together in Peace, stressed that all countries across  the  world  should  seek  to  promote  dialogue  and  reconciliation as well as acceptance and respect of diversity and differences.

The  increasing  trend  in  Africa  of  hate  speech,  identity  and religious based conflicts, hatred, exacerbation of ethnic  divisions  and  extremist  ideology  among  religious and  ethnic  groups  has  been  noted  with  concern  by  the  PSC in its decision adopted at its 836th meeting on 3 April  2019.  Taking  account  of  the  multiple  armed  conflicts, political tensions and instabilities disrupting peace as well as social and economic cohesion in Africa, the  PSC  may  use  tomorrow’s  open  session  as  an  opportunity to call on Member States, political oppositions  as  well  as  faith  leaders  to  embrace  and  promote a culture of tolerance and appreciation of diversity.  This  also  highlights  the  need  for  complementing peace‐making, mediation and peacebuilding  efforts  with  interventions  that  leverage  and support advocacy for a culture of peace and peaceful coexistence.

The PSC may in particular highlight the need for putting in  place  policy  measures  at  national  level  to  discourage  the manipulation of ethnic, religious, cultural and social identities for fuelling tension, spreading hate and inciting communal  violence  in  pursuit  of  narrow  political  objectives. Also, of interest for PSC members is the need for addressing the conditions and factors that make the manipulation of identities for political mobilization, inter‐communal acrimony and violence possible. These conditions  and  factors  include  inequality  in  political  representation and socio‐economic opportunities, corruption  and  other  forms  of  bad  governance,  natural  resources curse and forms of political competition (winner  takes  all)  that  accentuate  identity‐based  mobilization.
The concept note for tomorrow’s session also underlines the importance of democracy, good governance and rule of law for the realisation of mutual respect for diversity. This  rightly  highlights  the  need  to  promote,  protect  respect, and fulfil core human rights principles such as the  principle  of  equality  and  the  principle  of  non‐discrimination based on race, religion, gender, language or any other status, which are fundamental for building up a culture of tolerance of diversity.

Adopting  inclusive  government  policies  aimed  at  equitable distribution of wealth plays a significant role in the  realisation  of  the  socio‐economic  dimension  of  Resolution 72/130. Similarly, promoting moderate religious discourses helps to eliminate radicalisation and extremist  religious  ideologies  and  considerably  contributes to the religious aspect of ‘living together in peace’.  Utilising  education  as  a  means  of  instilling  a  culture of peace and tolerance in the minds of the youth and future generations would then ensure achievement of the social, economic, religious and political aspirations envisaged in Resolution 72/130.

It  is  to  be  recalled  that  various  African  countries  have  celebrated International Day of Peace on the 21st of September  over  the  past  years.  Themes  such  as  “Meaningful Youth Inclusion in Peace‐Building” and “Together  for  Peace:  Respect,  Dignity  and  Security  for  All” have marked the celebration of International Day of Peace in African countries. This year it was observed in a high‐level forum that was convened in Luanda, Angola in collaboration with UNESCO. Given that the themes of the celebration  of  21st  September  and  16  May  are  interrelated, tomorrow’s session can reflect on how member  states,  civil  society  and  the  media commemorate  the  two  days  in  a  complementary  way  through public awareness campaigns and education on peace,  unity,  inclusion,  and  tolerance  with  particular  focus on the youth.

In  her  speech  at  this  year’s  celebration  of  International  Day of Living Together in Peace, María Fernanda Espinosa  Garcés  also  particularly  underscored  the  importance of the theme of the day with due regard to the challenges faced at the UN in adopting collective and multilateral  decisions.  Given  the  adverse  impacts  of  unilateralism on peaceful co‐existence within and among states,  tomorrow’s  session  also  helps  to  reflect  on  the  importance of multilateralism and collective action in the promotion  of  peace,  reconciliation  and  mutual  respect  among countries and communities.

The  expected  outcome  of  the  session  is  a  press  statement. The PSC may call on Member States for strengthened  efforts  in  advancing  solidarity  and  reconciliation. It may task the AU Commission to ensure that  on  16  May  ‘living  together  in  peace’  is  commemorated annually.


Provisional Programme of Work for the Month of November 2019

2019

Date | November 2019

For the month of November 2019, Algeria will assume the role of chairing the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC). The provisional program of work of the PSC for the month envisages about seven substantive sessions, two of which will be open sessions. The Council will also be having a
retreat during the month.

On 5 November, the monthly programme of work of the PSC will start with an open session on Living Together in Peace, an agenda adopted by the UN General Assembly Resolution 72/130. On the same date, the PSC may consider a briefing on the situation in Guinea Bissau. It is to be recalled that the PSC had initially scheduled a meeting on 29th October and was postponed a day before its convening.

The PSC is scheduled to have a retreat on the AU Peace Fund in Addis Ababa on 7 and 8 November. The retreat is expected to bring clarity on the mechanisms in which contribution will be made to
the Peace Fund by member states and on ways of its utilization.

On 11 November, a briefing by the Office of the Peace Building Commission of the UN Political Affairs Department to the PSC is expected to take place. The following day, on 12 November, the PSC is scheduled to address two agenda items. The first one is the interactive session with the AU Commission. The PSC held its first interactive session in September and may use this space to strengthen coordination with the relevant departments of the Commission. The second agenda will focus on the preparation for the High‐ Level Seminar on Peace and Security in Africa expected to be held in Libreville (Gabon) on 16 and 17 December 2019.

On 14 November, the Council is scheduled to have three of its sessions for the month. The first one will be a briefing on the situation in South Sudan. This session is taking place two days after the deadline of the formation of the transitional government in South Sudan. The second session will be a
preparatory meeting for the PSC Ministerial Meeting taking place in Luanda in December 2019. The presentation of the provisional programme for December 2019 is scheduled as the last item for deliberation scheduled for the day.

The second open session of the month is scheduled to take place on 15 November and will be convened under the theme ‘Youth, Peace and Security in Africa’. It is to be recalled that the last PSC session on this agenda took place in November 2018. From 20 to 26 November, PSC members will attend the AU‐League of Arab States Partnership Summit. The last session scheduled to take place on 28 November has two agenda items. The first agenda item is expected to consider the renewal of the mandate of Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF). The second is on the preparation for the PSC Ministerial Meeting taking place in December 2019. In addition to these agenda items, the provisional program of the month also envisions in footnotes a meeting of the Committee of Experts, and a meeting of the Military Staff Committee, all of which are to be confirmed during the course of the month.


Briefing on the Situation in Darfur and the Activities of UNAMID

2019

Date | 24 October, 2019

Tomorrow (24 October) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council will have a session to consider the situation in Darfur and the activities of AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). Jeremiah Nyamane Kingsley Mamabolo the Joint Special Representative and Head of the UNAMID is expected to brief the Council.

Liberia as the Chair of the month and the Director of Peace and Security Department are also expected to make statements. The Council will receive a briefing on report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission, which assesses the political and security situation on the ground and provides recommendations on the drawdown and exit strategy of UNAMID. The report is expected to assess the political developments under the new transitional government particularly in relation to the situation in Darfur.

In the political front, the report is expected to provide update on the state of implementation of the agreed arrangements for the transitional process, including those relating to peace. On 6 September, the new government of Sudan under Prime Minister Abdela Hamdok announced the formation of a committee tasked with the responsibility of laying down the groundwork for the constitution of a Peace Commission. The briefing may also provide further details on the on going peace talks between the transitional government and armed movements and the particular role of the AU in providing technical and political support in the process. Following the signing of the Juba Declaration for Confidence Building and Preparation for Negotiation between the Transitional Government and the Sudan armed movements in Juba on September 11, further negotiations and peace talks have taken place. The Sovereignty Council has made concessions to bring on board the Sudan Liberation Army led by Abdul Wahid (SLA‐AW) in the peace talks including through the pardon of prisoners and face to face meeting between Prime Minister Hamdok and Abdul Wahid. The peace talks among the various armed movements have commenced
on October 14 in Juba.

In the security sphere, the situation in Darfur particularly the Jebel Marra area remain tense due to the ongoing fighting between the Sudanese forces and SLA‐AW will be covered. In this context the declaration of a ceasefire by President Burhan on 16 October 2019 is expected to contribute positively in improving the security situation in Darfur. In order to prevent further tension and confrontation among the people the government may also accelerate the work of the national committee to investigate the 3 June massacre.

The briefing is also expected to provide an overview on the status of the UNAMID drawdown and liquidation. In this regard the PSC at 856th session held on 13 June decided the ‘Closure of eight team sites that are no longer active’, for UNAMID troops to ‘be relocated to the remaining team sites which have been identified as security hot spots’ and for the AU and UN in consultation with UNAMID to reconsider the number of civilian staff to ensure that they are commensurate with the requirement of the current mandate implementation’.

The PSC has also tasked the AUC and the UN Secretariat ‘to develop a political strategy that helps address the remaining political challenges, in consultation with the African Union High Level Panel (AUHIP), UNAMID and the UN Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa’. During the oral update to the UNSC on 26 August, Smail Chergui highlighted developments since the PSC 13 June meeting. Chergui stressed AU’s support to the ‘delay in the drawdown plan to reduce the military component ceiling to 4,050 to allow the mission to protect its sites and installations, in particular the logistics hub in El Fasher, thereby maintaining a strength of 4,375’. In the same session Jean Pierre Lacroix highlighted the steps towards the development of the joint AU‐UN political strategy for post‐UNAMID engagement. Lacroix pointed out that AU‐UN would jointly engage the new cabinet to ensure the smooth drawdown and transition from peacekeeping to peace building. Tomorrow’s PSC
session may consider mechanisms in which the AU can provide support and fast track the planned political
strategy.

The report of the Chairperson also expected to highlight on the exit strategy. It may highlight the need to take in consideration the security situation and ongoing peace talks which are expected to extend over the next sixmonth. The report may also reiterate PSC’s 13 June decision on realignment of troops to focus on 5 sites, instead of the cutback on the number of military personnel. The report may further highlight on the need for the post‐UNAMID mechanism to be a home‐grown initiative driven by the government to ensure
sustainability and ownership.

In October, the UNSC is expected to renew the mandate of UNAMID ahead of its expiry on 31 October. On 27 June, the UNSC its resolution 2479 (2019) decided ‘to extend temporarily and exceptionally, the period of drawdown for UNAMID’s military personnel’. Ahead of the session, the UNSC is expected to receive a Special Report by the UN Secretary‐General and the Chairperson of the AUC. Central issues related to the structure and the changes to the mandate of UNAMID in line with the eventual mission’s exit in 2020 are expected to be addressed. Although the AU has clearly stated its support to delay any further drawdown, there are a number of options which the UNSC may explore including executing the existing plan of drawdown.

The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC may commend the political actors in their efforts towards finding a common ground through the peace talks. It may task the Commission to strengthen its efforts in providing technical support to political actors that are participating in the dialogue. With regards to UNAMID the PSC may consider the slowing down of the drawdown particularly to prevent any further risks that may reverse the gains made in the political and security situation. The PSC may also take note of the continuing volatile security situation in Darfur, hence the need for the protection of civilians. It may provide key recommendations and direction towards the development of the joint political strategy and may also articulate its position ahead of the UNSC session on Darfur and UNAMID mandate renewal.


Joint annual consultative meeting of the PSC and the UNSC

2019

Date | 21 October, 2019

On 21 and 22 October the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will have their 4th informal seminar and 13th joint annual consultation in Addis Ababa. Originally, the meetings were scheduled for 23rd and 24th of October. But this initial schedule had to be adjusted upon the request of South Sudan to enable the UNSC delegation visiting South Sudan ahead of its visit to Addis Ababa engage President Salva Kiir before his scheduled travel to Sochi for the first Russia-Africa Summit starting on 23rd October.

The annual consultative meeting of the members of the two Councils have been held since 2007, alternating between the Addis Ababa and New York. While the consultative meeting in previous years addressed both conflict situations and thematic issues together, in more recent years the two Councils deal with conflict situations and thematic issues separately. Since 2016, the annual consultative meeting focused on specific conflict situations. For example, the last meeting of the two Councils held in New York covered the situations in the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan. The informal joint seminar, which precedes, the annual consultative meeting, has become the framework for discussing issues or themes of interest for the partnership between the PSC and the UNSC.

It has become an established practice that the two Councils will adopt a joint communique at the end of their meetings.

In preparation for the seminar and the consultative meetings, the two Councils held various informal consultations. Following the successful experience of 2018, the AU Committee of Experts traveled to New York during the week of 30 October to discuss the agenda and negotiate on the communique. The PSC also convened a number of preparatory sessions.

Joint informal seminar of the AUPSC and the UNSC

The annual informal joint seminar, happening for the fourth time, is scheduled to take place on the 21st of October.

Although initially there were three issues on the agenda of the informal seminar, it is now expected to take up only two of these important issues – silencing the Guns in Africa and exchange views on modalities for conducting joint field missions in Africa. The AU has already decided that its theme of the year for 2020 would be “Silencing the guns: creating conducive conditions for Africa’s development”. Under the Equatorial Guinea Presidency earlier this year, the UNSC adopted resolution 2457 (2019) on cooperation between the United Nations and regional and sub-regional organizations in maintaining international peace and security with focus on silencing the guns in Africa. Equatorial Guinea plans to host a ministerial Conference dedicated to this theme with a view to following up implementation. Apart from reviewing the various measures envisaged in resolution 2457, major issues expected to feature during the informal seminar include the status of implementation of the AU’s project on silencing the guns by 2020 and the follow up to this plan after 2020.
Modalities for joint PSC-UNSC field missions is the second agenda of the informal seminar. The two Councils have agreed in principle to have joint field missions. Despite efforts by African members of the UNSC to push for its implementation, the idea of a joint field mission has not so far materialized. During the last joint annual consultation, the two Councils agreed that the modalities of such visits will be discussed and agreed upon on a case-by-case basis by the two Councils. Therefore, the African members of the UNSC have been trying to develop modalities to help facilitate the discussion on this issue. Within the PSC, in preparation for this agenda, various options have been put forward and the PSC has been reviewing them. One such option is using the troika format involving the past, current and future chairs. Another is to have one representative each for the joint session from the regional groupings on the basis of which election of members is organized. It is expected that the exchange of views on this issue will help facilitate progress.

The issue of financing of AU led peace support operation was on the draft agenda for the joint informal seminar. However, the AUPSC proposed the removal of the item on the financing of AU-led Peace Support Operations from the agenda of the joint informal seminar. At its 881st meeting held on 19 September 2019, the AUPSC had considered the draft resolution proposed by the African members of the UNSC and decided to postpone the submission of the proposed draft resolution. The AUPSC is of the view that the issue should be considered at the next AU Summit in January to have what it called “a better articulated and African owned common position” before a draft resolution is tabled for consideration by the UNSC.

Signaling the wish of the UNSC to keep financing on the agenda, a letter addressed to the Chair of the PSC has been sent from the President of the UNSC. The African three members of the UNSC (A3), particularly current President of the UNSC South Africa, which has been working on this issue as one of its big-ticket issue under its tenure, has strong resolve to build on the momentum build over the years and push ahead with the discussion on this theme. Indeed, acting on the call of the PSC on the A3 to continue spearheading the African common position on predictable and sustainable financing through UN assessed contributions, the A3 has in the past four years been working hard to achieve this objective taking forward the progress achieved through the adoption of resolutions 2320 and 2378. Accordingly, the A3 initiated a draft resolution on financing to be adopted in December 2018 under the Cote d’Ivoire Presidency of the Security Council. However, the US threatened to Veto the resolution. Following the introduction of a so-called compromise text to accommodate the US, the vote on the A3 draft resolution was postponed (Please refer to the Amani insight on this issue).

Even though there was expectation that the resolution could have been tabled under the Equatorial Guinea Presidency of the Security Council, it did not materialize. South Africa who initially brought the issue of financing to the Security Council in its previous membership took over from Ethiopia in advancing the agenda and it made the issue one of the priorities of its Presidency this month. Work started in advance in the A3 format to build the necessary momentum for the draft resolution. The A3 Permanent Representatives also went to Washington, D.C. to engage with the United States, including the Congress, White House and the Department of State. The two draft texts that were put in blue in December 2019 were withdrawn and a new and slightly updated text was introduced by the A3. The A3 had sent the draft to Addis Ababa to get input and guidance from the AUPSC before negotiations over the draft commenced. The new draft was circulated to members of the UNSC and expert level negotiation also started to receive preliminary reaction on the draft. When the PSC finally reviewed the matter, it felt that the latest updated draft did not adequately reflect AU interests. The PSC opted for deferring the consideration of the draft text by the UNSC pending the holding of adequate consultation at the level of the African Union. The letter from South Africa has been discussed as part of the preparation for the joint seminar and annual consultation. Indications are that the PSC did not deem it wise to discuss this issue officially before internal AU discussions are finalized, and is hence unable to proceed with South Africa’s proposal.

There is recognition that the momentum generated by the draft A3 text should not be lost and it is vital that the two Councils address the financing issue to unlock the full potential of the UN-AU strategic partnership in the area of peace and security. A clear guidance and unequivocal support from the PSC to A3 will certainly go a long way in moving the discussions forward but there is also need for a clear strategy on how to engage the current US Administration not only at the level of the A3 PRs but also at the level of leadership of the A3 and of the African Union Commission. The unity of the A3 and the wider membership of the Africa Group is vital to ensure progress on the financing issue.

13th annual consultative meeting

During the annual consultative meeting, the two Councils are scheduled to take up four important and pressing peace and security situations on the continent. These are the situations in Libya, South Sudan, Central African Republic and the Sahel region.

On Libya, the two Councils may express concern over the situation in the country and call for a return to the political process based on the Libyan Political Agreement. In this context, they may call for an all-inclusive Libyan national reconciliation conferences to be co-organized by the UN and the AU, within the framework of the plan proposed by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General Ghassan Salame. With the AU seeking increasing role in Libya, one issue expected to be a point of contention is the push from the AU for the appointment of a joint AU-UN special representative for Libya.

On South Sudan, the major issue is a follow up to the face to face meeting between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Dr. Riekh Machar during the visit of the UNSC to Juba at end of the week. The PSC in the communique of its 886th session of 15 October called on the UNSC to impress on the parties on the need to form a revitalized and inclusive transitional government of national unity by the end of the pre-transitional period on 12 November 2019. The two Councils are also expected to review the progress made thus far in the implementation of the R-ARCSS and to urge the signatories to expedite implementation of the outstanding issues, including the security arrangements and the number and boundaries of states. They may also call armed movements that have not yet signed the Agreement to join the peace process. For these, they draw on recent outcomes of the respective meetings of the two Councils. The PSC following its 886th session of 15 October issued a communique on the situation in South Sudan envisaging a working visit by the AU High-level ad hoc Committee for South Sudan to press the parties to proceed with the formation of a unity government by 12 November. It is to be recalled that the UNSC also issued a Presidential Statement on 8 October 2019, under the South African Presidency, focusing on the implementation of the R-ARCSS.

On Central African Republic, the two Councils may welcome the ongoing efforts to stabilize the country, particularly the implementation of the Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation. The two Councils are thus expected to focus on ensuring that the government and armed groups create the conditions for the implementation of the Agreement and honor their commitments, including the cessation of hostilities and all acts of violence, notably those targeting civilians. They may also call for concrete support by the countries of the region, notably Chad and Sudan, and international partners to ensure the successful implementation of the peace agreement. There is also a need to underscore the importance of the guarantors and facilitators of the Peace Agreement to intensity their efforts to create the conditions conducive to its full implementation.

On the Sahel, the two councils are sure to discuss the continuing fragility of the security situation, including most notably the spread of terrorist networks and attacks particularly in Burkina Faso, and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the region. Also of interest for the two Councils will be the steps taken by the G5 Sahel States towards the full and effective operationalization of the joint force of the G-5 Sahel (FC-G5S). They may call on the international community to continue to support the G5 Sahel Joint Force and the MNJTF to strengthen capacity to confront terrorism and extremism in the Sahel region. Equally important is the need to support efforts to tackle the underlying drivers of conflict and instability through comprehensive development initiatives, including the establishment of legitimate and representative local government structures and infrastructure for provision of public services.

A joint draft communique has been under negotiation. The hope and expectation is that the Joint Communique will be adopted at the end of the annual consultation. In the past, it used to take a long time for the two councils to agree on their joint communique but last year they were able to adopt it at the conclusion of their annual consultation. Meeting of the experts of the two councils helped in facilitating the adoption of the Joint Communique at the end of last year’s consultation held in New York. It remains to be seen if the meetings of the experts of the two Councils held earlier in the month would lead to a repeat of last year’s success in adopting the joint communiqué by the end of the consultative meeting.


Open session on the commemoration of the 19th anniversary of the UN Security Council Resolution 1325

2019

Date | October 17, 2019

Tomorrow (October 17) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to hold an open session commemorating the 19th anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1325. The session is expected to take place under the theme ‘the Role of Women in Social Changes and Peace Building: Time for Recognition – Commemoration of the UNSC Resolution 1325’.

Apart from the remark of Liberia as Chair of the PSC, the Commissioner for Peace and Security Smail Chergui is expected to deliver the opening remarks. The AU Special Envoy on Women, Peace and Security Bineta Diop is expected to make a presentation. Women representatives from Sudan are also expected to address the PSC. The United Nations Office to the AU (UNOAU) is also expected to participate.

Over the years, the Council has held annual commemorative sessions focusing on a number of issues in line with UNSC resolution 1325. The October 2018 session has paid particular attention to the role of women in conflict prevention and peace building at community level. During this year’s commemoration, the Office of the Special Envoy is expected to submit its first report on the implementation of the women, peace and security agenda. The report is expected to provide an overall assessment on the level of progress made based on the reports received from member states by utilizing the Continental Results Framework adopted in May 2018.

Resolution 1325 remains a critical instrument to advance the women’s participation and their protection in conflict situation. Despite receiving wide recognition, the implementation of what the resolution envisions remains uneven on the continent. To date, in Africa, twenty-five countries have adopted National Action Plans (NAPs) and five Regional Economic Communities/Mechanisms (REC/REMs) namely the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Southern African Development Community (SADC), East African Community, International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) have also adopted regional action plans (RAPs). The AU through its Special Envoy office has launched a 10 years Continental Results Framework (CRF) for monitoring and reporting on the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security Agenda in Africa. The Framework aims at ensuring that Members deliver on commitments made through the various instruments that have been adopted.

While these are important milestones in the implementation process, there remain major gaps. Some member states that have adopted national action plans are yet to follow up with sufficient budgetary allocation and dedicated institutional bodies to ensure adequate monitoring structures. Diop is expected to point out that out of the ‘25 Member States that have adopted NAPs on the implementation of Women, Peace and Security Agenda, only eight have achieved the 30% women representation in parliaments.’ Also to be highlighted in the Special Envoy’s presentation to the PSC is the inadequate progress in the representation of women in African peace processes, illustrated by the fact that ‘the proportion of women in AMISOM remains at 3%.’
Following the launch of the of the CRF and in preparation towards the upcoming 20th anniversary of the UNSC resolution 1325 a consultative meeting aimed at enhancing women leadership in peace processes and advancing the implementation of the women, peace and security agenda was organized by the office of the Special Envoy 29 May 2019. The consultation called for the increased number of NAPs possibly to 2/3 of the AU membership by October 2020. It would be of interest to member states of the PSC to know further on the proposed strategy for achieving such target and update on other aspects of the outcome of the meeting.

The presentation by the Special Envoy may also highlight the various engagements held during the course of the year and may brief the Council and participants on the High-Level Solidarity Mission of African Women Leaders to support the Women of Sudan, who played leadership role in the civilian protest process that precipitated the transition in Sudan. Tomorrow’s session is expected to extensively deliberate on the case of Sudan and the role of women’s participation in the transition process and in the long-term political trajectory of the country. The intervention by women representatives from Sudan is expected to provide an in-depth discussion on the role that women played, the gains made and the challenges in their effective participation and role in the political transition and in the wider public life of Sudan.

Women’s participation in consolidating peace processes would be of interest to the PSC particularly in relation to recently brokered and on-going peace processes in South Sudan, CAR and Sudan. In this respect, issues of particular significance include whether and the gender lens is used in conflict analysis, in the planning and implementation of peace processes and in monitoring and reviewing AU’s interventions.

The PSC has held regular sessions on the women, peace and security agenda. In addition to the commemoration of the anniversary of resolution 1325, the PSC has institutionalized women, peace and security as a standing thematic agenda of the PSC since March 2010. Moreover, in addition to the two standing sessions in the course of the year, the PSC in its 862nd meeting in July 2019 held a dedicated session mainly focusing on sexual violence in armed conflicts. The Council ‘agreed to dedicate an annual open session to conflict-related sexual violence, which will serve as an annual forum for taking stock of progress made and challenges faced in the efforts aimed at ending sexual violence in armed conflicts in Africa’.

In assessing progress in respect of Resolution 1325 and the AU women and peace and security agenda, it is of particular importance for the PSC to consider what benchmarks, tools and mechanisms are put in place to systematically integrate gender in its engagements and in AU’s role across the conflict cycle. In terms of the gender architecture of the AU, it would also be of interest for the PSC to know whether and how the various gender related entities and projects within the AU system coordinate, such as in reporting under the Maputo Protocol and the annual report under the CRF of the Special Envoy.

During this month, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security under South Africa’s presidency. The UN Secretary-General is also expected to present his annual report on women, peace and security for 2019.

The 2018 report of the Secretary-General highlighted the underrepresentation of women in peaceful resolution of conflicts, it points out that between 1990 and 2017, women constituted only 2 per cent of mediators and 8 per cent of negotiators. Women also remain underrepresented in disarmament efforts although they are primary victims by violence resulting from illicit possession and circulation of arms. The report addressed issues related to women’s access to basic services, justice and security, which are most of the time disrupted in conflict situations. Challenges around discriminatory laws that prevent women from enjoying their rights and access to justice may also be of interest to PSC members and participants.

The expected outcome is a press statement. The Council may call on member states to adopt NAPs and make the necessary budgetary allocation and put in place robust monitoring mechanisms. Leading up to the milestone marking the 20th anniversary of resolution 1325 in 2020, the PSC could request that the women and peace and security agenda receives particular attention in the AU’s theme of the year for 2020 ‘Silencing the Guns’. Also, of importance is the need for enhanced synergy and coordination with the UN system and for giving particular attention to the needs of young women. The PSC could also commend the AU Special Envoy for the consolidated report and may call on all member states for continued reporting on the implementation of 1325 by utilizing the CRF. The PSC could also encourage Sudan to continue its efforts in bringing women to position of leadership throughout the transition period and beyond and may urge other countries to follow the examples of countries that achieved high level of progress by showing high level political will.