The situation in Guinea Bissau
Amani Africa
Date | 6 November, 2019
Tomorrow (6 November), at 3pm the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will have a session on the situation in Guinea Bissau, which was postponed from the October program of work of the PSC. The representative of Guinea Bissau, Chair of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), United Nations Office to the African Union (UNOAU), African Members to the UN Security Council (A3) Cote D’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea and South Africa are expected participate in the session. The Director of Peace and Security Department and Director of Political Affairs to make statements on the latest political developments and the elections planned on 24 November.
The last time the PSC held discussion on Guinea Bissau was on 11 June 2019 where it urged ‘the President of the Republic of Guinea Bissau to urgently initiate consultations, with a view to appointing a Prime Minister, in accordance with the will of the people, as expressed in the legislative elections of 10 March 2019 and, in due course, to announce the date of the presidential election scheduled for this year before the expiration of his current term on 23 June 2019’.
On 16-18 June the PSC, acting on its communique of 11 June, undertook a field visit to Guinea-Bissau. During the visit the PSC held consultations with various Guinea-Bissau political actors, including President Jose Mario Vaz. During the two days visit the delegation of the PSC urged the president to announce the date for Presidential elections before June 23rd, 2019 and appoint the Prime Minister. The delegation also pressed all parties to constitute the National Assembly and review the National Constitution.
On 18 June, the day the PSC concluded its visit, the President announced that presidential elections would be held on 24 November. He also appointed Aristides Gomes as prime minister on 22 June following a high- level mission of ECOWAS to Bissau on 19-20 June. ECOWAS had to mobilize further diplomatic efforts during its 29 June summit to have President Vaz accept the composition of the new government under Prime Minister Gomes. ECOWAS summit gave Vaz a deadline of 3 July to appoint a new government, based on the prime minister’s proposal, and a new attorney general, to be chosen by consensus. In apparent exchange, the summit ECOWAS summit decided that Vaz remains in office, after expiry of his term, until the election, although the management of the affairs of the state was left in the hands of the new government under the new Prime Minister Gomes. On the same day, Vaz appointed the government and a new attorney general based on Prime Minister Gomes’ proposal. The composition of the government mainly consists of PAIGC members and supporters.
With the political wrangling continuing unabated even after the formation of the new government, the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel, the AU, the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP) and ECOWAS undertook a mission to Bissau. The communiqué of the 7 October joint field mission of these international bodies strongly urged for the presidential election to be held during 2019.
On 14 October, the Supreme Court of Justice of Guinea- Bissau announced the provisional list of 13 candidates for the upcoming presidential elections, including the incumbent President who is expected to run as an independent candidate after being unable to secure the nomination of the opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MADEM-G15). Other candidates include former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira of PAIGC, who was the initial candidate to lead the new government formed on 29 June, and Nuno Gomes Nabian for the United People’s Assembly – Guinea-Bissau Democratic Party (APU-PDGB). Although Nabian’s APU/PDGB is part of the governing coalition, it has recently formed an alliance with opposition Party for Social Renewal (PRS) to unite the Balanta ethnic group, which has strong links with the military, in support of Nabian’s candidacy. The former Prime Minister Umaro Sissoko Embalo is to run under the flag of MADEM G-15.
Other issues of concern that are of interest to the PSC include the manoeuvring of some elements to delay the election and cause the breakup of PAIGC, whose candidate is considered likely to win. The incumbent President as well continues to speak on the need for major reforms including constitutional reforms before the holding of the presidential elections. This request may also stem from the intention of postponing the elections beyond 2019, since the proposed changes require a long period of time.
It is against the backdrop of these rising political tensions that President Vaz issued a decree on 28 October dismissing the government of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes and appointing a new Prime Minister. With only three weeks left for the election to take place later this month, the decision by the President has further aggravated the tense political situation in the country causing serious consternation. With the terms of President Vaz having ended but ECOWAS agreeing for him to stay on without executive power until the 24 November election, the contestation over the legality of the decree he issued dissolving the government has put the country in a constitutional crisis, giving rise to questions on the compatibility of this action with the AU ban on unconstitutional changes of government. On 29 October, ECOWAS issued a communiqué calling the President’s decree illegal and reiterating its full support for Aristide Gomes and his government. Furthermore, it threatened to impose punitive measures against those found to be obstructing the upcoming election.
In his statement issued on 30th October, the AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat also expressed his deep concern regarding the Presidential Decree dissolving of the Government and reiterated his support for the efforts of ECOWAS calling on all the political actors to respect its decision and honour the commitments made in this regard. In the same vein, the UN Secretary-General issued a statement the same day expressing serious concern on the unfolding developments in Guinea-Bissau and calling on all political stakeholders to abide by the decisions taken by ECOWAS regarding the governance arrangements in Guinea-Bissau until the presidential election on 24 November.
The Chair of the 2048 UN Sanctions Committee on Guinea-Bissau, Ambassador Anatolio Ndong Mba of Equatorial Guinea has also been actively seized with the matter. He was in Bissau last week as part of the Committee’s mission to the country in carrying out its mandate. The United Nations Peacebuilding Commission is also engaged on the situation in Guinea Bissau and the Chair of the PBC Configuration on Guinea Bissau, Ambassador Mauro Vieira of Brazil was in Bissau last week to encourage the holding of a free, fair, credible, transparent and peaceful presidential election on 24th of November. He has written a letter to the President of the Security Council on 30 October 2019, sharing his observations from the visit. The decree was issued to dissolve the government after he returned from his visit and he urged Bissau Guinean political actors to exercise maximum restraint and resort to dialogue to resolve their differences.
The United Nations Security Council met on 30th October under any other business to discuss the latest developments in Guinea-Bissau and Cote d’Ivoire as the penholder initiated a presidential statement. On 4 November, the UNSC adopted the presidential statement. In the Statement, the UNSC expressed its
full support for the communiques that ECOWAS and AU Commission issued on 29 and 30 October respectively and the urgent need to hold the presidential election on 24 November.
The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC may urge the government of Guinea Bissau and the other political actors to hold the election on 24 November as per the set timeline and work towards a fair, free and peaceful election come 24 November. It may express serious concern on the recent developments in relation to the dissolution of the government by President Vaz, which may constitute a breach of AU rules on constitutional governance, and reiterate its support to the ECOWAS efforts including its plan to take punitive measures. It may call upon all political stakeholders in Guinea Bissau to respect the ECOWAS decision, refrain from aggravating the already tense political situation in the country and exert every possible effort to resolve their differences in full compliance with outcome of the March 2019 parliamentary elections and the ECOWAS plan. The PSC may welcome ECOWAS’s decision to extend the mandate of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea- Bissau (ECOMIB) for a period of six months starting from 1 October 2019. It may request the AUC to strengthen support to the Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission (SRCC) for Guinea Bissau and his office particularly in relation to the upcoming election. Apart from requesting the AUC to deploy electoral and human rights observers to the country, it could also consider appropriate action in accordance with the Lomed Declaration of 2000 and Addis Ababa Charter on Democracy Elections and Governance.
Open Session on Living Together in Peace
Amani Africa
Date | 05 November, 2019
Tomorrow (5 November), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold an Open Session on Living Together in Peace based on United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) Resolution 72/130. It was Algeria, as chair of the Month that initiated this item as agenda of tomorrow’s session.
During the session, Algeria as the PSC Chair of the month is expected to make a presentation. A representative from the UN may also deliver a statement. The presentations will be followed by interventions from member states and invited participants.
On 8 December 2017, the UNGA adopted Resolution 72/130, which designated 16 May as the ‘International Day of Living Together in Peace’ and a means of mobilising international efforts “to promote peace, tolerance, inclusion, understanding and solidarity”. The resolution highlights the need to promote the culture of peace and non‐violence and underscores the importance of respect for religious and cultural diversity across the world. It calls on States and world leaders to work in collaboration with religious communities and find ways to promote reconciliation, resolve differences and pave the way for peace and sustainable development.
Tomorrow’s open session is expected to provide the forum for participants to suggest practical steps for the realization of Resolution 72/130’s goals in the political, economic, social, religious, cultural and educational spheres of public life. Resolution 72/130 recognizes living together in peace as ‘accepting differences and having the ability to listen to, recognize, respect and appreciate others, as well as living in a peaceful and united way’. As such, the session is also anticipated to serve as a means for participants to reflect on the value and practical applications of ‘living together in peace’.
The UNGA, through adopting Resolution 72/130, called upon UN Member States, agencies and other International and Regional Organizations, as well as Civil Society Organizations including Non‐Governmental Organizations and individuals, to devote 16 May to celebrate “International Day of Living Together in Peace” to respecting culture and other local, national and regional customs, and taking educational initiatives and sensitization activities. It particularly tasked the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) to facilitate the commemoration of annual International Day of Living Together in Peace.
María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, President of the 73rd Session of the UN General Assembly, in her opening statement at the celebration of 2019 International Day of Living Together in Peace, stressed that all countries across the world should seek to promote dialogue and reconciliation as well as acceptance and respect of diversity and differences.
The increasing trend in Africa of hate speech, identity and religious based conflicts, hatred, exacerbation of ethnic divisions and extremist ideology among religious and ethnic groups has been noted with concern by the PSC in its decision adopted at its 836th meeting on 3 April 2019. Taking account of the multiple armed conflicts, political tensions and instabilities disrupting peace as well as social and economic cohesion in Africa, the PSC may use tomorrow’s open session as an opportunity to call on Member States, political oppositions as well as faith leaders to embrace and promote a culture of tolerance and appreciation of diversity. This also highlights the need for complementing peace‐making, mediation and peacebuilding efforts with interventions that leverage and support advocacy for a culture of peace and peaceful coexistence.
The PSC may in particular highlight the need for putting in place policy measures at national level to discourage the manipulation of ethnic, religious, cultural and social identities for fuelling tension, spreading hate and inciting communal violence in pursuit of narrow political objectives. Also, of interest for PSC members is the need for addressing the conditions and factors that make the manipulation of identities for political mobilization, inter‐communal acrimony and violence possible. These conditions and factors include inequality in political representation and socio‐economic opportunities, corruption and other forms of bad governance, natural resources curse and forms of political competition (winner takes all) that accentuate identity‐based mobilization.
The concept note for tomorrow’s session also underlines the importance of democracy, good governance and rule of law for the realisation of mutual respect for diversity. This rightly highlights the need to promote, protect respect, and fulfil core human rights principles such as the principle of equality and the principle of non‐discrimination based on race, religion, gender, language or any other status, which are fundamental for building up a culture of tolerance of diversity.
Adopting inclusive government policies aimed at equitable distribution of wealth plays a significant role in the realisation of the socio‐economic dimension of Resolution 72/130. Similarly, promoting moderate religious discourses helps to eliminate radicalisation and extremist religious ideologies and considerably contributes to the religious aspect of ‘living together in peace’. Utilising education as a means of instilling a culture of peace and tolerance in the minds of the youth and future generations would then ensure achievement of the social, economic, religious and political aspirations envisaged in Resolution 72/130.
It is to be recalled that various African countries have celebrated International Day of Peace on the 21st of September over the past years. Themes such as “Meaningful Youth Inclusion in Peace‐Building” and “Together for Peace: Respect, Dignity and Security for All” have marked the celebration of International Day of Peace in African countries. This year it was observed in a high‐level forum that was convened in Luanda, Angola in collaboration with UNESCO. Given that the themes of the celebration of 21st September and 16 May are interrelated, tomorrow’s session can reflect on how member states, civil society and the media commemorate the two days in a complementary way through public awareness campaigns and education on peace, unity, inclusion, and tolerance with particular focus on the youth.
In her speech at this year’s celebration of International Day of Living Together in Peace, María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés also particularly underscored the importance of the theme of the day with due regard to the challenges faced at the UN in adopting collective and multilateral decisions. Given the adverse impacts of unilateralism on peaceful co‐existence within and among states, tomorrow’s session also helps to reflect on the importance of multilateralism and collective action in the promotion of peace, reconciliation and mutual respect among countries and communities.
The expected outcome of the session is a press statement. The PSC may call on Member States for strengthened efforts in advancing solidarity and reconciliation. It may task the AU Commission to ensure that on 16 May ‘living together in peace’ is commemorated annually.
Provisional Programme of Work for the Month of November 2019
Amani Africa
Date | November 2019
For the month of November 2019, Algeria will assume the role of chairing the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC). The provisional program of work of the PSC for the month envisages about seven substantive sessions, two of which will be open sessions. The Council will also be having a
retreat during the month.
On 5 November, the monthly programme of work of the PSC will start with an open session on Living Together in Peace, an agenda adopted by the UN General Assembly Resolution 72/130. On the same date, the PSC may consider a briefing on the situation in Guinea Bissau. It is to be recalled that the PSC had initially scheduled a meeting on 29th October and was postponed a day before its convening.
The PSC is scheduled to have a retreat on the AU Peace Fund in Addis Ababa on 7 and 8 November. The retreat is expected to bring clarity on the mechanisms in which contribution will be made to
the Peace Fund by member states and on ways of its utilization.
On 11 November, a briefing by the Office of the Peace Building Commission of the UN Political Affairs Department to the PSC is expected to take place. The following day, on 12 November, the PSC is scheduled to address two agenda items. The first one is the interactive session with the AU Commission. The PSC held its first interactive session in September and may use this space to strengthen coordination with the relevant departments of the Commission. The second agenda will focus on the preparation for the High‐ Level Seminar on Peace and Security in Africa expected to be held in Libreville (Gabon) on 16 and 17 December 2019.
On 14 November, the Council is scheduled to have three of its sessions for the month. The first one will be a briefing on the situation in South Sudan. This session is taking place two days after the deadline of the formation of the transitional government in South Sudan. The second session will be a
preparatory meeting for the PSC Ministerial Meeting taking place in Luanda in December 2019. The presentation of the provisional programme for December 2019 is scheduled as the last item for deliberation scheduled for the day.
The second open session of the month is scheduled to take place on 15 November and will be convened under the theme ‘Youth, Peace and Security in Africa’. It is to be recalled that the last PSC session on this agenda took place in November 2018. From 20 to 26 November, PSC members will attend the AU‐League of Arab States Partnership Summit. The last session scheduled to take place on 28 November has two agenda items. The first agenda item is expected to consider the renewal of the mandate of Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF). The second is on the preparation for the PSC Ministerial Meeting taking place in December 2019. In addition to these agenda items, the provisional program of the month also envisions in footnotes a meeting of the Committee of Experts, and a meeting of the Military Staff Committee, all of which are to be confirmed during the course of the month.
Briefing on the Situation in Darfur and the Activities of UNAMID
Amani Africa
Date | 24 October, 2019
Tomorrow (24 October) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council will have a session to consider the situation in Darfur and the activities of AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). Jeremiah Nyamane Kingsley Mamabolo the Joint Special Representative and Head of the UNAMID is expected to brief the Council.
Liberia as the Chair of the month and the Director of Peace and Security Department are also expected to make statements. The Council will receive a briefing on report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission, which assesses the political and security situation on the ground and provides recommendations on the drawdown and exit strategy of UNAMID. The report is expected to assess the political developments under the new transitional government particularly in relation to the situation in Darfur.
In the political front, the report is expected to provide update on the state of implementation of the agreed arrangements for the transitional process, including those relating to peace. On 6 September, the new government of Sudan under Prime Minister Abdela Hamdok announced the formation of a committee tasked with the responsibility of laying down the groundwork for the constitution of a Peace Commission. The briefing may also provide further details on the on going peace talks between the transitional government and armed movements and the particular role of the AU in providing technical and political support in the process. Following the signing of the Juba Declaration for Confidence Building and Preparation for Negotiation between the Transitional Government and the Sudan armed movements in Juba on September 11, further negotiations and peace talks have taken place. The Sovereignty Council has made concessions to bring on board the Sudan Liberation Army led by Abdul Wahid (SLA‐AW) in the peace talks including through the pardon of prisoners and face to face meeting between Prime Minister Hamdok and Abdul Wahid. The peace talks among the various armed movements have commenced
on October 14 in Juba.
In the security sphere, the situation in Darfur particularly the Jebel Marra area remain tense due to the ongoing fighting between the Sudanese forces and SLA‐AW will be covered. In this context the declaration of a ceasefire by President Burhan on 16 October 2019 is expected to contribute positively in improving the security situation in Darfur. In order to prevent further tension and confrontation among the people the government may also accelerate the work of the national committee to investigate the 3 June massacre.
The briefing is also expected to provide an overview on the status of the UNAMID drawdown and liquidation. In this regard the PSC at 856th session held on 13 June decided the ‘Closure of eight team sites that are no longer active’, for UNAMID troops to ‘be relocated to the remaining team sites which have been identified as security hot spots’ and for the AU and UN in consultation with UNAMID to reconsider the number of civilian staff to ensure that they are commensurate with the requirement of the current mandate implementation’.
The PSC has also tasked the AUC and the UN Secretariat ‘to develop a political strategy that helps address the remaining political challenges, in consultation with the African Union High Level Panel (AUHIP), UNAMID and the UN Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa’. During the oral update to the UNSC on 26 August, Smail Chergui highlighted developments since the PSC 13 June meeting. Chergui stressed AU’s support to the ‘delay in the drawdown plan to reduce the military component ceiling to 4,050 to allow the mission to protect its sites and installations, in particular the logistics hub in El Fasher, thereby maintaining a strength of 4,375’. In the same session Jean Pierre Lacroix highlighted the steps towards the development of the joint AU‐UN political strategy for post‐UNAMID engagement. Lacroix pointed out that AU‐UN would jointly engage the new cabinet to ensure the smooth drawdown and transition from peacekeeping to peace building. Tomorrow’s PSC
session may consider mechanisms in which the AU can provide support and fast track the planned political
strategy.
The report of the Chairperson also expected to highlight on the exit strategy. It may highlight the need to take in consideration the security situation and ongoing peace talks which are expected to extend over the next sixmonth. The report may also reiterate PSC’s 13 June decision on realignment of troops to focus on 5 sites, instead of the cutback on the number of military personnel. The report may further highlight on the need for the post‐UNAMID mechanism to be a home‐grown initiative driven by the government to ensure
sustainability and ownership.
In October, the UNSC is expected to renew the mandate of UNAMID ahead of its expiry on 31 October. On 27 June, the UNSC its resolution 2479 (2019) decided ‘to extend temporarily and exceptionally, the period of drawdown for UNAMID’s military personnel’. Ahead of the session, the UNSC is expected to receive a Special Report by the UN Secretary‐General and the Chairperson of the AUC. Central issues related to the structure and the changes to the mandate of UNAMID in line with the eventual mission’s exit in 2020 are expected to be addressed. Although the AU has clearly stated its support to delay any further drawdown, there are a number of options which the UNSC may explore including executing the existing plan of drawdown.
The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC may commend the political actors in their efforts towards finding a common ground through the peace talks. It may task the Commission to strengthen its efforts in providing technical support to political actors that are participating in the dialogue. With regards to UNAMID the PSC may consider the slowing down of the drawdown particularly to prevent any further risks that may reverse the gains made in the political and security situation. The PSC may also take note of the continuing volatile security situation in Darfur, hence the need for the protection of civilians. It may provide key recommendations and direction towards the development of the joint political strategy and may also articulate its position ahead of the UNSC session on Darfur and UNAMID mandate renewal.
