PSC session on Somalia and AMISOM
Amani Africa
Date | May 7, 2019
Tomorrow (May 7), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will hold its 847th session. The session will focus on the situation in Somalia and renewal of the mandate of AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Acting Director of AU Peace and Securtiy Deparmtnet, Admore Kambudzi and Special Representative for Somalia and Head of AMISOM Francisco Caetano Jose Madeira are also expected to brief the council on the situation in Somalia and AMISOM. Ambassador of Rwanda, Hope Tumukunde Gasura, will deliver a statement as the PSC Chair of the month. The representative of the UN is expected to make an intervention. The representatives of Somalia and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are also invited to make a statement in the opening segment of the session.
During the session, the PSC is expected to consider two reports: the Report of the Chairperson of the Commission on the Situation in Somalia and the 5th AU-UN Joint Review of AMISOM. Based on these reports, the PSC is also expected to renew the mandate of AMISOM for another twelve months.
Pursuant to the UN Security Council resolution 2431 (2018) and PSC 782 communiqué, AMISOM’s mandate has been renewed until May 31 2019 with a minimum of 1,040 AMISOM police personnel including five formed police units, and with reduced level of uniformed AMISOM personnel to a maximum level of 20,626 by February 2019. As per the requirement of Resolution 2431 and to meet the reduced force size of AMISOM, 1000 troops from the Burundian contingent have been withdrawn. Although the drawdown is in line with the UNSC decision, the withdrawal of a particular Troop Contributing Country has created tension between Bujumbura and the AU Commission and has also been challenged by Hirshabelle state where the forces are located. All these efforts are geared towards the gradual handover of responsibilities to Somali security forces by December 2021.
The PSC is expected to review the political and security situation in Somalia, including the implementation of the Somalia Transitional Plan (STP) and the National Security Architecture (NSA) FGS. Also of interest to the PSC is the three phase strategy in the transition plan that identifies the necessary steps leading up to the 2021 national elections by focusing on operational activities, supporting activities and institution building. In line with the first phase of the plan which spans up to June 2019, AMISOM has handed over to the government of Somalia the national stadium and the Jaalle Siyaad Military Academy, both have been used as military bases. More difficult handovers are also expected to follow later in the year including the main roads linking Mogadishu with the main towns in South West.
As a follow up to the above decisions of the UNSC and the PSC, the AUC Chairperson has already presented his report at the 806th PSC meeting. The report has particularly indicated the political challenges due to the increasing rivalry between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMS). Since then, while there have been some positive developments in the relationship between the two levels of government, the centralization push of the FGS continues to fuel tension. It is reported that a meeting of President Abdullahi Formaajo and the leaders of FMS has convened in Garowe to resolve disputes between the two levels of government.
In terms of the security situation, as recurring incidents of Al Shabaab attacks attest and highlighted in the Chairperson’s report, security also remains a major challenge. On 23 March, Al-Shabaab fighters detonated a suicide car bomb storming a government building, killing 15 people including the country’s deputy labor minister. On 18 April, a car bomb exploded in Mogadishu, killing five people. The following day, five family members of the deputy minister for fisheries were fatally shot. There are
concerns that attacks would escalate during the Ramadan fasting season. Against the background of the above observation of the communiqué of the 827th session, these recurring attacks and the continuing gaps in capacity of national institutions, there is continuing concern of great risk of a security vacuum particularly with the ongoing transition and reconfiguration of AMISOM and if the necessary capacity is not met by the Somali Security Forces (SSF).
It is to be recalled that the PSC at its 827th session has adopted the 2018-2021 AMISOM Concept of Operations (CONOPs). Developed based on the Somali Transition Plan (STP), the Operational Readiness Assessments (ORA) of AMISOM and of the SSF, the CONOPs provide a roadmap towards the complete withdrawal of AMISOM troops and handing over of responsibility to Somalia authorities. The communiqué of the session emphasized that the effective implementation of the CONOPs and the STP highly depends on the ‘generation of the Somali Security forces…continued provision of required trained and equipped personnel by Police and Troop Contributing Countries and availability of required and predictable resources for AMISOM’s sustainment to support the FGS’.
The UNSC 2431 (2018) has extended the mandate of AMISOM to pursue three strategic
objectives: to facilitate gradual handing over responsibilities to (SSF), to reduce the threat of Al-Shabaab and other armed groups and to assist SSF to provide security for the political processes at all levels. For PSC members it would be of interest to inquire on the 10-months progress and challenges in fulfilling the key assignments by AMISOM and to receive update on the reconfiguration of the peacekeeping mission. One notable development has been the initiative by the AU for developing an AU political strategy for Somalia.
The Chairperson’s report is expected to provide update on the reconfiguration that took place in the military, civilian and police component. On the military aspect, the capacity of SSF in taking over from AMISOM is expected to be highlighted and the need to enhance coordination and information sharing among the various security actors will be a key factor to enhance protection and security. For the police component, the reconfiguration looks into the increased police presence in the various AMISOM sectors and to support the roles of the military and civilian components as well engage in trainings of national police personnel. This will also be accompanied by the reconfiguration of equipments. The civilian component has increasingly been involved in the implementation of the STP particularly in the political analysis and human rights monitoring.
The expanded role of the police and civilian components is also in line with the 782nd ministerial meeting of the PSC that calls for AMISOM’s mandate in ‘political and stabilization role into all sectors, including ensuring international humanitarian law and human rights compliance and accountability, progressive training and mentoring of Somali National Army, Somali Police Force and
Darwish forces required to successfully implement the STP’. The session, in addition to the ongoing efforts may also provide an overview of the planned implementation of phase two and three of the STP and the AMISOM CONOPs and key recommendations on next steps.
In terms of determining the outcome of the session, it may be of interest for the PSC to review developments in light of these benchmarks set in the communiqué of its 827th session. In this respect, a major consideration is the serious threat that Al Shabaab continues to pose and the security risk that arises from the implementation of the withdrawal of AMISOM without the presence of trained and prepared Somalia forces to take effective control of responsibility from where AMISOM withdraws.
If the risk of reversal of the security gains is to be ensured, the situation seems to warrant that more effort is made into putting in place effective SSF able to take over from AMISOM and the pace and timeline of the drawdown of AMISOM is reviewed accordingly. It is also important that AMISOM is provided with the resources and support that are necessary for reinforcing its effectiveness as it implements the
process of withdrawal.
The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. Tomorrow’s meeting is expected to extend the mission’s mandate until 2020 and to specify the deliverables to be undertaken under
the new mandate in line with the 2018-2021 CONOPs and STP. It is also expected to highlight the adjustments that should be made in terms of the pace of withdrawal of AMISOM and the deployment of the requisite force enablers particularly in terms of aviation capacity. This decision will be followed by UNSC resolution that
is expected to be passed at the end of this month.
PSC Program of Work for the Month of May 2019
Amani Africa
Date | May 2019
Rwanda assumes the role of the monthly chairpersonship of the African Union (AU)
Peace and Security Council (PSC) for the month of May. The provisional program of work includes two country specific briefings and five sessions on thematic issues. During the month, the Military Staff Committee (MSC) and the Committee of Experts meetings are also scheduled to take place.
On 2 May the MSC is expected to meet with the Peace Support Operations Division (PSOD) to prepare the report on the challenges faced by AU-led Peace Support Operations (PSOs) and
on ways to address them. The following week on 7 May the PSC will meet to consider the renewal of AMISOM mandate which was renewed in July last year for a 10 month period and will be ending on 27 May. In May, the UN Security Council is also expected to meet under the presidency of Indonesia to extend the mandate of AMISOM. On the same day the PSC is expected to consider and adopt the draft PSC provisional program of work for the month of June.
On 9 May the PSC will consider the report of the AU Commission on the peace process in the Central African Republic and the implementation of the Peace Agreement. The AU led peace process has culminated in the signing on 6 February 2019 0f the agreement between the government of CAR and 14 recognized armed groups. This was followed by peace talks in Addis Ababa in March.
On 14 May the PSC is scheduled to have two agenda items. The fist is the consideration of the report prepared by the MSC and PSOD on the challenges faced by AU-led PSOs and on ways of addressing them. The second agenda item is the monthly report of the Commission on the harmonization of ACIRC within the ASF framework.
The second thematic session of the month is expected to take place on 16 May. The session will focus on mitigating the threat of health epidemics to peace and security in Africa with a particular focus on Ebola. This is within the framework of the PSC’s increasing interest on new forms of security threats with African Centre for Disease Control expected to provide briefing to the PSC.
The Committee of Experts will convene on 17 May for a full day consultation to consider the draft manual of the PSC working methods. The third thematic issue of the month focusing on another new form of security threat is expected to take place on 23 May. During this meeting the PSC will discuss mitigating the threat of cyber security to peace and security in Africa.
On 24 May, the PSC will have a session on the inaugural consultative meeting of the PSC and the peace and security decision-making bodies of the Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs). It is anticipated that this meeting will facilitate agreement between the PSC and the organs of RECs/RMs on mechanisms for consultations and coordination of actions in the prevention, management and resolution of conflicts in accordance with the conclusions of the September 2015 Abuja retreat of the PSC.
The last session of the PSC, scheduled to take place on 30 May, will consider the draft manual of PSC working methods. This is expected to bring together and presents the conclusions of the ten retreats of the PSC on its working methods in a format that will allow ease of reference and proper implementation.
In addition to these agenda items, the provisional program of the month also envisages in footnotes a few additional items that may be added in the course of the month. One such tentative item is the report of the military staff committee on the field mission to Duala, where the Continental Logistics Base is located. The second agenda item is the meeting of experts to finalize monitoring and evaluation framework for the master roadmap on Silencing the Guns in Africa. The Council plans to commemorate the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the PSC, which is on May 25 however the date of the commemorative session is yet to be confirmed. The PSC is also expected to hold an interactive session with the AUC Chairperson.
PSC Session on the Situation in Sudan
Amani Africa
Date | 30 April, 2019
Tomorrow (30 April) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene a session on the follow up to the 840th meeting on the situation in Sudan. The session will be held in Tunis, Tunisia. It is to be recalled that the communiqué of the 840th session of the PSC requested the ‘Chairperson of the Commission to report to Council by 30th April 2019, on the evolution of the situation and the implementation of the present Communiqué’. It is expected that the AU Commission Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, will present this report. Sudan’s representative and that of IGAD are also expected to make statements.
In its communiqué that rejected the seizure of power by the military as unconstitutional and contrary to established AU norms, the PSC demanded the army to cede authority in favor of such civilian-led authority within 15 days from the date of adoption of the decision. In the language of the communiqué, in the event of the non-transfer of authority to a transitional civilian-led authority at the end of the set time, the provisions of Article 7 (g) of the PSC Protocol involving the suspension of Sudan from the AU would apply. The communiqué stipulated that this application of the measures under Article 7(g) suspension will be automatic.
In his report, Mahamat is expected to update the PSC on what steps he has taken to follow up on the implementation of the communiqué. His report is also expected to update the PSC on the situation in Sudan in general and the state of the transition in particular including most notably the process towards the establishment of a civilian-led transitional authority.
On 16 April Mahamat received a delegation of the Transitional Military Council (TMC). In a statement issued following the meeting, recalling the communiqué adopted by the PSC at its meeting held on 15 April and his own earlier communiqué, he reiterated the AU’s commitment to work with all the Sudanese stakeholders towards a consensual and inclusive transition that meets the aspirations of the people and ensures the stability of the country. Following the meeting, he issued a statement. As a follow up to the PSC communiqué of 15 April, the AUC Chair also undertook a visit to Sudan on 21 April. After the consultations he held with various stakeholders, he issued a statement urging ‘all concerned stakeholders to agree on earnest on a civilian-led and consensual transition’. In the statement, he also expressed his hope ‘to a successful outcome of their ongoing consultations, as he prepares his report to the Peace and Security Council on the evolution of the situation in Sudan, to be submitted by the end of this month, as per the Council’s communiqué of 15 April 2019.’
It is expected that Mahamat’s report would inform the PSC on the views and expectations of the various stakeholders with whom he held consultations during his visit. With respect to the process for the establishment of the civilian-led transitional authority required by the AU norm banning unconstitutional changes of government as provided for in Article 30 of the Constitutive Act and Article 7 of the PSC Protocol, Mahamat is also expected to update the PSC on the state of the negotiations for transferring authority from the army to a civilian-led authority. PSC member states would also be interested to hear Mahamat’s assessment of the challenges and the prospects for the establishment of a civilian-led authority.
Also to feature in Mahamat’s report to the PSC is the consultative summit on the situation in Sudan that was held in Cairo, Egypt. On 23 April, the AU Assembly Chairperson, President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi, convened a consultative summit of the regional partners of Sudan, which brought together the neighbors of Sudan and the members of the AU Troika, namely Rwanda (outgoing Chair of the AU) and South Africa (the designated chair of the AU for 2020). The consultative meeting having no decision-making power, it did not take a decision, it however made a key recommendation pertaining to the 15 April decision of the PSC. Following the briefing from the representative of the Sudan and AUC Chair following his visit of 21 April, the Consultative meeting recommended that the PSC extends the timeline provided for the Sudanese authorities by three month.
While negotiations between the coalition of protesters and opposition forces, under the umbrella of the Freedom and Change Forces, and the TMC have been underway with intermittent suspension by the Freedom and Change Forces, it has been reported that the negotiations held on 27 April culminated in agreement for joint establishment of a transitional authority. However, major differences have emerged over the composition and form of the transitional authority and the duration of the transitional period. In terms of the composition of the transitional authority to be established consensually, the Freedom and Change Forces demand an authority whose majority members would be composed of civilians while the military sought to have dominant role with limited civilian participation.
In the light of the clear terms of the AU norm banning unconstitutional changes of government, it is expected that the PSC would ensure that this norm and its established practice of upholding this norm are unequivocally respected. Also given the declared unconstitutionality of the military’s seizure of
power and AU’s democratic norms demand to limit the role of the army in politics as the PSC made clear in its intervention in the army’s seizure of power in Burkina Faso in November 2014. One of the issues for Mahamat to advice and for the PSC to clarify is how to define the scope of the role of the military and limit its influence on transitional politics in Sudan as part of the process of the restoration of constitutional order.
As to the duration of the transitional period, the military council proposes two years while the Freedom and Change Forces called for a four years transitional period. The negotiating parties have also to agree on the role or scope of authority of the transitional authority being negotiated. Another, perhaps more important aspect of the issue for PSC decision relates to the proposed extension of the 15 days timeline. According to the terms of the PSC communiqué quoted above, if, at the expiry of the 15 days period, the TMC fails to transfer power to a civilian-led transitional authority, the PSC would apply provisions of Article 7(g) of the PSC Protocol particularly the suspension of Sudan from the AU. This would be automatic. Given
the recommendations of the Consultative Summit held in Cairo to extend the timeline for a period of three months, it is expected that Mahamat would propose extension.
In making a determination on the recommendation of the Consultative Summit for extension of the timeline, there are few issues for the PSC to consider. The first is in the light of the progress being made for the formation of a consensual transitional authority whether it is necessary for the PSC to extend the timeline for as long as the three month period that the Consultative Summit proposed. There is a risk that such prolongation may create conditions that militate against civilian-led transition and lead instead to consolidation by the military of its transitional authority. The other issue is the parameters that the PSC may need to set, when extending the timeline, in terms of the form that the civilian-led transitional authority should take to meet ‘the aspirations of the people of Sudan, as well as to the relevant AU instruments’, in the words of its 15 April communiqué. Finally, the PSC may also need to consider the tasking of the AU High level Panel on Sudan, otherwise known as the Mbeki Panel, or a new envoy of the AUC Chair, to ensure that the negotiations between the Sudanese parties produce the expected outcome before the end of the extended period and help them bridge their differences on such other issues as the duration of the transitional period and the scope of authority/mandate of the transitional authority.
The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué that would outline the period of extension and the conditions to be met for effecting transfer of authority to a civilian-led authority consistent with the applicable norms of the AU.
Briefing on Transnational Organized Crime and Peace and Security in Africa
Amani Africa
Date | 24 April, 2019
Tomorrow (25 April) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to have its 845th session on Transnational Organized Crime and Peace and Security in Africa. The briefing is expected to be conducted jointly by the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA), AU Mechanism for Police Cooperation (AFRIPOL) and International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL).
The session is expected to highlight the need for enhanced cooperation for police agencies and other relevant law enforcement agencies in fighting all forms of organized crime with the aim of promoting peace and security in Africa. The session also presents an opportunity to elaborate on the nature of the threat of transnational organized crime in the continent and highlight the ongoing efforts by AFRIPOL, INTERPOL and CISSA in providing support to member states to fight organized crime in Africa, particularly due to the growing linkage between transnational organized crime and terrorism.
During the 731st meeting held on 8 November 2017 the PSC underlined ‘the direct linkages between terrorism and transnational organized crime particularly in situations where state institutions are weak and lack the necessary capacity to effectively discharge their constitutional mandates’. Among others, organized crime has enhanced the ability of terrorist groups to finance their activities and this has contributed to the proliferation of violent extremist groups in the continent.
Similarly the INTERPOL-ENACT (Enhancing African capacity to respond more effectively to transnational organized crime) report released in December 2018 concluded that crimes are increasingly converging in Africa, underlining how transnational threats cannot be treated in isolation by particularly highlighting the interconnectedness between transnational organized crime and violent extremism. Criminals, terrorists and armed insurgents have benefited from diverse illicit activities and profits, through drug and arms trafficking, people smuggling and wildlife crime. The rapid technological development in Africa including its e-commerce and mobile technologies has come with the inadvertent consequences of the rise of cybercrime and illicit online activities.
Geographically as well organized crime is increasingly interconnected across the region and globally, hence in order to respond effectively to the threats the efforts by member states need to be more coordinated and move beyond national boundaries. In this context, the establishment of AFRIPOL, as a technical body for cooperation among the police agencies of the AU member states play a critical role in providing systematic and structured cooperation among police agencies in the continent. This has also been recognized by the PSC 731st session which underlined the importance of ‘collective security approaches in the fight against terrorism and transnational organized crime… and the core need for information and intelligence sharing among the relevant security agencies of the member states’.
Towards fostering regional cooperation the PSC, at its 687th meeting held in May 2017, requested the African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism (ACSRT), CISSA and AFRIPOL in partnership with other stakeholders to develop a five year strategic roadmap for the prevention and combating of terrorism and violent extremism. This is expected to advance synergies and coherence among partners and mandate holders, by preventing duplication of efforts. Tomorrow’s session will also offer an opportunity to discuss ongoing efforts and coordination among the various institutes towards the common goal of fighting organized crime the interrelated activities of terrorism and violence extremism. In line with the PSC decision, AFRIPOL and CISSA may provide update on the development of the roadmap.
Similarly these efforts of coordination can be further enhanced by following up on the PSC decision that has requested the Commission to urgently prepare and submit to the Council, an updated matrix of status of implementation of all decisions adopted by Council including on transnational organized crime. The PSC may also recall this previous decision and follow up on the activities of the Commission.
The evolving nature of transnational organized crime requires that member states continue to review and update their responses in line with the changing environment. In this regard the briefing is expected to provide an overview of how INTERPOL and AFRIPOL work closely with member states towards strengthening the capacities of the national police agencies in adopting a comprehensive approach that takes into consideration the transnational nature of organized crime. The agreement signed between the AU and INTERPOL in January 2019, is also in recognition of the borderless nature of organized crime and to enhance cooperation between INTERPOL and AFRIPOL in areas of common interest, including in the exchange of data and information, technical cooperation, and training and capacity building.
It is also worth noting that transnational organized crime and illicit economy have become extremely complex and continue to evolve. The overlaps between the licit and illicit economies are significant, and it becomes increasingly difficult to draw distinction between them. Hence this requires coordination beyond law enforcement authorities by also building close cooperation with financial institutions, legal entities performing legal and financial services and financial intelligence offices. In this regard, the 749th PSC session that was held at heads of state and government level have called on ‘member states to take the required measures to dry up the flow of terrorism financing, by cutting the links between terrorist organizations and organized crime, including trafficking, smuggling and illicit trade.’
The situation is even more intricate with the increasing trends of criminal networks operating in Africa but with the support of criminals from outside the continent engaged in the various forms of crimes of trafficking and smuggling of illicit products and resources. The continent is becoming more entangled in a global network of illicit economic networks. This key aspect necessitates the shift from traditional responses towards organized crime that are designed to operate within national borders towards evidence based and coordinated approach at regional and global level.
The expected outcome is a press statement. The PSC may provide strategic guidance to member states, Regional Economic Communities/ Regional Mechanisms, and the AUC on ways to strengthen the capacities of the police authorities and agencies in combating transnational organized crime and deter its impact on the peace and security of the continent.
