Consideration of the half-year Report of the Chairperson of the commission on elections in Africa: July to December 2024 and Outlook for 2025

Date | 23 January 2025

Tomorrow (24 January), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1255th session to consider the half-year report of the AU Commission on elections in Africa, covering the period between July and December 2024.

Following the opening statement of the Chairperson of the PSC for the month of January, Ennio Maes, Permanent Representative of Cote D’Ivoire, Bankole Adeoye, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), is expected to present the report. Statements are also expected from the representatives of Member States that organised elections during the reporting period and from the representatives of the Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) that observed the elections.

The chairperson’s mid-year report on elections in Africa aligns with the PSC’s 424th session decision to receive quarterly briefings on national elections in Africa. Tomorrow’s session builds on the updates provided during the 1224th session on elections that were conducted during the first half of 2024. It will review the outcomes of elections held between July and December 2024, discuss broader trends in electoral governance across the continent and provide a snapshot of elections planned for the first half of 2025.

Dubbed an ‘election super year’, 2024 witnessed significant electoral activities in Africa, with at least 17 AU Member States conducting elections. In the second half of 2024, from July – December alone, 11 Member States organised presidential and parliamentary elections, namely: Algeria, Rwanda, Tunisia, Mozambique, Botswana, Mauritius, Gabon, Senegal, Namibia, Ghana and Chad. While the AU deployed Election Observation Missions (AUEOMs) that were notable for their inclusivity, with significant representation of women and youth among the observers to nine of these Member States, no missions were deployed to the Republics of Algeria and the parliamentary elections in Chad as the AU did not receive invitations from these Member States. The lack of such invitations risks setting a precedent that undermines AU missions and potentially weakening collective efforts to ensure transparent and credible elections on the continent.

The comprehensive electoral support extended by the AU to Member States includes deploying Election Observation Missions comprising diverse teams of short-term observers, technical experts, and representatives from civil society, youth and women’s organisations. The AU conducts pre-election and needs assessment missions to evaluate political environments stakeholder preparedness, and technical gaps. Capacity-building initiatives, such as training electoral experts and publishing reports on best practices, enhance institutional effectiveness. The AU also promotes stakeholder engagement, preventive diplomacy, and electoral reform advocacy to foster peaceful and inclusive elections. Financial and logistical support includes resources for Election Management Bodies (EMBs) and advocating state funding for equitable media coverage. Additionally, the AU emphasises post-election stability through legal dispute mechanisms and follow-ups to ensure adherence to democratic principles.

While the AUEOMs highlighted constructive roles played by political parties and EMBs in fostering inclusivity and transparency, challenges such as increased voter abstention in some member states and security concerns in areas like Mozambique were noted.

The Republic of Rwanda held its General Elections from 14 to 16 July 2024, electing a President and representatives for the Chamber of Deputies. The elections reaffirmed Paul Kagame’s hold on power with a landslide victory of 99.18% of the votes. While the electoral process was peaceful and marked by high voter turnout, it was criticised for limited political space and a lack of genuine opposition. Human Rights organisations have accused authorities of suppressing dissent, cracking down on journalists, and barring critical candidates from contesting the elections.

On 6 October, Tunisia held its first presidential election under the 2022 constitution, with Kaïs Saïed reelected in the first round with 90.69% of the votes. Despite this decisive victory, the election was marked by the lowest voter turnout since the 2011 revolution, 28.7%. The AUEOM highlighted the importance of broader voter engagement in future elections. The AU’s deployment of observers despite the deteriorating political environment, including the arrest of opposition figures and activists and a last-minute change to the electoral law that excluded judicial oversight of electoral violations, was criticised for legitimising Tunisia’s democratic backsliding.

Mozambique’s general elections, held on 9 October, underscored significant challenges in a country already grappling with security concerns in its northern provinces. Daniel Chapo of the incumbent FRELIMO secured 65.17% of the vote, extending the party’s decades-long dominance. However, the elections were marred by allegations of vote rigging, ballot box stuffing, and intimidation. The electoral environment was further marred by post-election violence, including politically motivated assassinations and a deadly crackdown on protests. The Constitutional Council’s decision to uphold the election results fueled further instability, and on 25 December, the AUC Chairperson issued a statement urging the ‘[g]overnment and all the national political and social actors to seek a peaceful solution to resolving the current crisis to avoid further loss of life’. A subsequent SADC summit, ‘mandated the SADC Panel of Elders supported by the Ministerial Committee of the Organ (MCO) Troika Member States, namely Malawi, Zambia and the United Republic of Tanzania, and the SADC Secretariat, to engage with the Government of Mozambique and key leaders of the opposition on the post-election environment in Mozambique, and report to the Chairperson of the SADC Organ by 15 January 2025.’ The summit also directed the Inter-state Defence and Security Committee to ‘propose measures to protect the regional trade routes, humanitarian corridors, and energy supplies while finding solutions to the political and security challenges in the Republic of Mozambique.’

The 30 October general elections in Botswana marked a historic victory for the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), ending the Botswana Democratic Party’s (BDP) decades-long dominance. The AU commended Botswana for its peaceful political transition and high voter turnout of 81.42%. The concession of defeat by the BDP and the peaceful transfer of power were seen as positive developments.

Mauritius also held National Assembly elections on 10 November, that saw the incumbent conceding peacefully with the Alliance for Change securing a landslide victory. The elections, characterised by a voter turnout of 77.82%, were praised for their transparency and adherence to international standards.

Gabon conducted a constitutional referendum on 16 November, paving the way for a return to democratic order following the 2023 coup d’état. The referendum, which passed with 91.64% voting in favour, was a critical step towards the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for August 2025. While the Chairperson of the AU Commission has applauded it as an ‘important step on the restoration of democratic constitutional order’, the provisions in the newly approved constitution enable the junta leader’s potential candidacy in 2025, which is in contrast to Article 25 (4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance which prohibits perpetrators of unconstitutional change of government from running in elections that mark the formal end of governments installed by coups.

Senegal held early legislative elections on 17 November, resulting in a victory for the ruling PASTEF Party, which secured 130 seats. The peaceful and prompt acceptance of results by all parties displayed political maturity and minimised post-electoral tensions.

Namibia’s presidential and National Assembly election held on 27 November saw Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of the ruling SWAPO elected as the country’s first female president. The elections were characterised by high voter turnout of 76.86% and peaceful conduct that further consolidated Namibia’s democratic credentials.

Ghana’s presidential and parliamentary elections on 7 December resulted in the return of John Dramani Mahama as president, with a 56.55% vote share. Ghana’s electoral process was widely regarded as exemplary, with strong institutional support and high voter confidence.

In addition to these reviews, tomorrow’s PSC session will likely examine trends in electoral governance and the importance of timely elections. The report also emphasises the need for sustained AU technical and financial support to EMBs and civil society organisations to strengthen Africa’s democratic processes.

Looking ahead, the session is expected to provide a snapshot of elections scheduled for the first half of 2025, including legislative elections in the Union of Comoros and Burundi. The AU’s readiness to deploy observation missions and technical support, contingent on Member State invitations, will be a focal point.

The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communique. The PSC is expected to adopt the report of the chairperson of the Commission and may consider recommendations to address persistent challenges, including increasing voter engagement, ensuring timely elections, and bolstering AU mission resources to match the scale and scope of other international election observation efforts. The PSC may also congratulate the Member States that organised peaceful elections during the review period and express concern over the post-election violence in Mozambique and may also call on the Mozambican authorities, concerned opposition parties and members of the public to extend full cooperation to the efforts of the AU and SADC to find a peaceful resolution to the post-election crisis and violence.