In December, the Republic of Djibouti will assume the role of chairing the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) under the leadership of H.E. Ambassador Abdi Mahmoud Eybe, Permanent Representative of Djibouti to the AU.

The Provisional Programme of Work (PPoW) for the month envisages four substantive sessions covering six agenda items. Except for one session envisaged to take place at the ministerial level, all the sessions are scheduled to take place at the ambassadorial level. Five of the six agenda items are on thematic issues. The remaining one agenda is dedicated to a country situation. No open session is stipulated in the PPoW. All sessions are scheduled to be held virtually.

In addition to the sessions, the PSC will also hold the annual High-Level Seminar on Peace and Security in Africa and its retreat with the African Peer Review Mechanism in Johannesburg. Additionally, the PSC is expected to hold informal consultation with countries suspended from the AU on the transition processes and the peace and security issues affecting them.

On 1 December, the month will kick off with the ‘11^th Annual High-Level Seminar on Peace and Security in enhancing cooperation between the AU PSC and the African Members of the UN Security Council in Addressing Peace and Security issues on the Continent’. This is held in accordance with Article 17(3) of the PSC Protocol which stipulates close working relationship between the PSC and the African members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

As outlined in the information note, this year’s edition of the High-Level Seminar is envisaged to focus particularly ‘on: a) Building Integrated Capacities for effectively combating terrorism and violent extremism; b) Implementation of the Pact of the Future focusing on UN Security Council Reform and Implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023); and c) Coordination between the PSC and the A3 Plus. The Seminar will also receive a Briefing on the Conclusions of the Ministerial Meeting of the A3 Plus, and last but not least, it will consider the status of implementation of the Conclusions of the 10^th Annual High-Level Seminar held in December 2023 and also adopt the Manual on the Modalities of Engagements between the PSC and the A3 Plus (Oran Process).’ It is to be recalled that the adoption of the Manual was postponed from last year in order to allow further inputs from member states. It remains to be seen whether the adoption of the Manual will actually take place as planned. In addition to members of the PSC, the seminar is expected to feature, as per the established practice, the current A3 members Plus One, incoming members of the A3 and Friends of the High-Level Seminar.

After Oran, on 5 December, the PSC will convene a session to review the implementation of PSC Decisions. This session, indicated in the Annual Programme of Work to take place twice a year, aims to review the state of the implementation of the decisions of the Council. As with the decisions of the AU, including that of the Assembly, non-implementation is a major challenge facing the decisions of the PSC. In 2017, the PSC took a decision following its retreat on its working methods that ‘the Committee of Experts shall, every six months, before the Ordinary Session of the Assembly, submit a matrix of implementation of all PSC decisions for consideration by the PSC.’ Since 2022, the PSC Secretariat took responsibility and developed the matrix for the implementation of PSC decisions as an instrument for monitoring follow-up. It is within this framework that the PSC will convene this proposed session.

On 10 December, the PSC will hold a session with two related agenda items. The first is on Consideration of the AU/UN Policy Paper on Enhancing AU Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and Early Action. This is a paper prepared, under the guidance of the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (CPAPS), through technical input from the UN, which provides an assessment of the institutional and operational issues affecting the CEWS and AU’s conflict prevention work. It is anticipated that the CPAPS will share with PSC members the contents of the paper. The second agenda item concerns the review of the Country Structural Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment (CSVRA) and Country Structural Vulnerability Mitigation Strategies (CSVMS). The CSVRA and CSVMS are developed following the request of the PSC in its 463^rd session for the development of a structural vulnerability assessment. Subsequently and following the completion, the PSC at its 901^st meeting, the PSC encouraged ‘Member States to make full use of the tools available at the Commission for structural conflict prevention, including the Country Structural Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment (CSVRA) and Country Structural Vulnerability Mitigation Strategies (CSVMS).’ As voluntary instruments developed to help member states in assessing their vulnerability and resilience, these instruments did not attract a large number of subscribers. Thus far, only Cotd’Ivoire, Ghana, and Zambia have volunteered to undertake the assessment. While Ghana completed the assessment, Zambia went through the assessment in 2021, and Cotd’Ivoire’s is still pending.

The following session is scheduled for 12 December, focusing on two agenda items. The first is an update on the progress made towards silencing the guns. This is being convened within the framework of the decision of the AU to review the implementation of the flagship project every two years. The 14 Extraordinary Summit of the AU decided to extend Silencing the Guns for a period of ten (10) years (2021-2030), with periodic reviews every two (2) years.’ This session is thus expected to present the PSC with the opportunity to review the state of peace and security on the continent and the gap between the ambition of the STG flagship project and the realities on the ground. As a review session, it is expected that it would put a spotlight on the setbacks being faced in the journey to achieve this noble objective and how and what kind of adjustments can be made to stem the tide of the increase in the number and geographic spread of conflicts.  The second agenda focuses on the consideration and adoption of the draft program of work for the month of January 2025.

The following week, the PSC will travel to Johannesburg, South Africa, for the 4^th Annual Joint Retreat between the PSC and African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), which will be held on 16 and 17 December.

The same week, on 19 December, the PSC will convene its first and only country-specific ministerial-level session for the month on ‘Consideration of the situation in Somalia and Post-ATMIS security Arrangements.’ This session is initiated in a context in which the end of ATMIS is envisaged to be 31 December 2024 while progress in finalising the preparations for and the design of the successor mission, the AU Stabilization and Support Mission to Somalia (AUSSOM), has stalled (See the 27 October 2024 edition of Insights on the PSC). On the one hand, this ministerial session has to provide guidance on how to manage the possibility of AUSSOM not becoming operational by 1 January 2025. On the other hand, it also needs to find a way out of the dispute over the participation of Ethiopia in AUSSOM as a troop contributing country. While Ethiopia as troop contributing country of ATMIS expects to continue to be part of AUSSOM, Somalia expressed its opposition to participation of Ethiopian troops unless Ethiopia retracts the memorandum of understanding it signed with Somaliland on access to the sea and the establishment of a naval base.

The final substantive activity of the PSC for the month concerns informal consultation on countries in political transition. Since April 2023, the PSC adopted the format of informal consultation as a way of overcoming the limitations that comes with suspension of AU member states from the AU and facilitating direct engagement with representatives of affected countries. It takes place in a venue different from the chambers of the PSC. No formal outcome is anticipated.

In addition to the foregoing, the PPoW encompasses a meeting of the Committee of Experts (CoE) on 9 December in preparation for the ministerial meeting on Somalia and Post-ATMIS security Arrangements. They are also scheduled to consider the annual indicative program of work for 2025. The CoE will also have a meeting to consider the Draft Report of the PSC on its activities and the State of Peace and Security in Africa.