Tomorrow (8 March 2022), the African Union (AU) Peace Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene its 1068th session to consider the joint AU-UN proposal on the reconfigured AU mission which will replace the current African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM).

Following the opening remark by Mafa M. Sejanamane, Permanent Representative of Lesotho to the AU and the Chairperson of the PSC for the month of March, Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), is expected to make statement. Francisco Madeira, Special Representatives of the Chair of the Commission for Somalia and Head of AMISOM will also make a presentation. The Representative of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is also expected to make a statement. Others that are expected to make statement include the representatives of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), United Nations (UN) Office to the AU (UNOAU), and European Union (EU) Delegation to the AU.

The timing of the meeting cannot be more opportune in light of the fact that the first AMISOM contingent from Uganda started to deploy in Somalia in March 2007. Fifteen years later, the AUPSC is set to decide on a successor mission to AMISOM with a view to sustaining the gains made over the past decade and half.

The AUPSC meeting tomorrow will be held in accordance with the timeline set out by the quartet technical team composed of Somalia, AU, UN and EU to submit the final versions of the new Concept of Operations (CONOPs), the joint AU-UN report and the logistical support option for endorsement by the AUPSC and subsequently by the UNSC. Accordingly, the AUPSC is expected to receive a comprehensive briefing on the finalization of the three important documents which will help facilitate its decision on the reconfiguration of the mission.

It is to be recalled that on 15 February 2022, the AUPSC had received an update on the consultations that have been going on between the AU, Somalia, the EU and the UN on the new African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). The Commission explained the nine principles agreed with Somalia to guide the work of this new successor mission to AMISOM which include national ownership and leadership, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, respect for African leadership and the central role of the AU, retention of the African identity and AMISOM’s legacy, acknowledge the evolving threat of Al-Shabaab, ensuring adequate, predictable and sustainable funding, transparency and mutual accountability, enhanced partnership and respect for human rights and international humanitarian law.

ATMIS is expected to undertake joint operation with the Somali Security Forces (SSF) to degrade Al-Shabaab and recover areas identified by FGS. It will also jointly hold recovered areas and provide protection for the communities, UN personnel and installations, secure main supply routes, facilitate humanitarian assistance and assist the FGS in its stabilization efforts. Most importantly, it will support the Somali security forces in terms of force generation and enhance their operational and logistical capabilities so that they will be able to gradually takeover security responsibilities.

The mission is expected to consolidate the gains, legacies and progress achieved by AMISOM and handover security responsibilities to the Somali Federal government by the end of December 2023 in line with the objectives set out in the revised Somalia transitional plan (STP). The gradual drawdown and exit of the mission hinges on the successful implementation of the STP and the capacity of the SSF to take over security responsibilities from the mission and maintain the security of recovered areas. The joint AU-Somalia proposal outlines key objectives to facilitate the effective implementation of the STP, including support to SSF in terms of force enablers and multipliers, ensure effective command and control, share risks and opportunities across sectors, support force generation, align sector boundaries with the Somali National Army sector boundaries, support the establishment of policing services in recovered areas and assist in vetting, recruiting, training, advising and mentoring the Somali police force, among others.

The joint proposal also outlines four phases for the new reconfigured mission. The first phase will allow a transition from AMISOM to ATMIS. In the second phase, ATMIS and SSF are expected to conduct joint shaping and clearance operations to create conditions for a decisive operation which will take place in the third phase with the objective of facilitating the transfer of security responsibilities to SSF. The last phase will see the gradual drawdown and exit of ATMIS. The FGS, the AU and UN will be conducting joint strategic assessment to monitor progress towards achieving the agreed timelines and benchmarks.

ATMIS will be a multidimensional mission with its military, police and civilian components. The new arrangement envisages the Force Commander to come from the largest troop contributing country (TCC) unlike the practice of rotation in the past. All TCCs are expected to be under the full operational command of the force commander but sector commander will have tactical command of the forces in their assigned sector. According to the joint proposal, it will be the FGS which makes the proposal for the appointment but it is not very clear how that would work practically. It remains to be seen whether this arrangement will be agreeable to the troop and police contributing countries (T/PCCs). The current AMISOM T/PCCs and civilian personnel will form part of ATMIS but the agreement envisages the possibility of new T/PCCs from other AU member States. The name of some countries which could possibly join the new mission was circulating on social media.

At the 15 February meeting, Council members were said to have emphasized the importance of aligning the mandate of the new reconfigured mission with the STP. The joint AU-Somalia proposal bases its assumptions on the effective implementation of STP which will allow ATMIS to handover security responsibilities to the SSF and winddown its operations in a matter of thirty-three months. But there seems to be a fair amount of skepticism about the prospects of implementation given the experiences of the past and the overall security, political situation and the state of the SSF.

The experience thus far shows that the implementation of the STP leaves a lot to be desired. Despite some progress made, the formation of a unified and cohesive security forces capable of fighting Al-Shabaab, holding to liberated territories and taking over responsibilities from AMISOM remains riddled with major gaps. There is accordingly expectation that the transition plan should be realistic, pragmatic and conditions based to ensure its effective implementation. There is also expectation that the Somali government will lay out clearly how it will generate the necessary force and capabilities to implement its transition plan and gradually take over security responsibilities so that the gains made by AMISOM can be sustained and the evolving threats posed by Al-Shabab can be addressed.

In the political front, the situation in Somalia remains volatile. This is mainly due to the slow progress in and the disputes over the electoral process, the infighting among various centers of power within the FGS and the contestation between the FGS and the Federal Member States (FMS). In terms of the security situation, during 2021 and the past few months Somalia has experienced intensification of attacks by Al-Shabaab. Without addressing these challenges in the political and security situation, ATMIS will face the same difficulty as AMISOM to deliver on its mandate within the assigned time.

The other important issue raised by members of the AUPSC is the need to take into account the views of T/PCCs in the development of the CONOPs. The T/PCCs are considered a major stakeholder in this process and they had their own views on the reconfiguration of the mission. It is to be recalled that the T/PCCs are the ones that pushed very hard for an AU-UN multidimensional mission which was proposed by the AU independent assessment and later endorsed by the AUPSC. It was one day before the AUPSC meeting that the Chiefs of Defense and Inspector-Generals of AMISOM T/PCCs met at the AU Headquarters and received an update from the Commission on the CONOPs, the AU-UN joint proposal and logistics options for the new reconfigured mission. At this meeting, the Commissioner for PAPS, Adeoye, reassured the T/PCCs about the multidimensional nature of the reconfigured mission and the importance of addressing the longstanding issue of adequate, predictable and sustainable funding for the mission. The Commissioner also underscored this point during his recent visit to Somalia and his engagement with the FGS, the T/PCCs and other partners.

The UN is expected to continue providing logistical support package to the reconfigured AU mission. The UN acknowledges the progress made in the technical discussions on the CONOPs; the joint AU-UN proposal on a reconfigured Mission; and the UN logistical options. The UN is of the view that progress in the implementation of the STP is critical in determining the success of the reconfigured mission in the transfer of security responsibilities to the SSF. The UN is, therefore, calling on the FGS to urgently convene the next STP steering committee meeting to advance this objective.

On the other hand, the EU has been a major financier of AMISOM and it welcomes the recent positive progress in terms of the joint efforts by Somalia and the AU in developing the proposal for a reconfigured mission. The EU representative in New York maintained that “the EU is willing to support the continued security presence of a reconfigured AU mission in Somalia, but there is no support for more of the same. This is precisely because the context has evolved, which requires a fresh, holistic approach to addressing the challenge posed by the mutating threat, which sees a number of actors working more closely to deliver such a comprehensive and integrated solution”.

The other emerging challenge for the EU could possibly be the new priority in its immediate neighborhood in relation to the unfolding situation in Ukraine. It remains to be seen how this will likely impact the EU’s commitment to continue financing the reconfigured AU mission in Somalia. The EU has already decided to provide support to Ukraine from the European Peace Facility which has replaced the African Peace Facility. The EU was also very much hoping that Somalia will request the Security Council for the renewal of the anti-piracy measures off the coast of Somalia to allow its Operation Atlanta to continue operating at least for the next nine months. However, the country has made its position clear that it will not do so as the anti-piracy measures have already achieved their objectives and there has been no record of piracy attacks or armed robbery off the coast of Somalia over the past four years.

The expected outcome of the meeting is a communique. The PSC is expected to welcome the work done in developing the various documents for implementing the transition of AMISOM to ATIMS as expected by end of the month. The PSC is expected to underscore the need for Somalia to finalize the long delayed electoral process. The PSC is also expected to commend AMISOM and the T/PCC for the sacrifices that AMISOM personnel made in pursuit of the stabilization of Somalia and for the achievements it has registered since its deployment in 2007 as well as the partnership with the UN and EU that played critical role in the implementation of AMISOM. The Council may also endorse the new CONOPs, the joint AU-UN report and the logistical support option and authorize the transition of AMISOM to ATMIS upon the end of the current mandate of AMISOM on 31 March 2022. The PSC may also reiterate its position on the imperative for predictable and sustainable multi-year financing for ATMIS. The PSC may also call on the EU to provide financial support for ATMIS. It is also expected that the PSC will call on the UNSC to endorse the transition of AMISOM to ATMIS and to authorize the contribution of the provision of UN logistics support for ATMIS from UN assessed contributions.

Tomorrow (15 February) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1065th session to receive a briefing on the situation in Somalia and update on the consultations on the form that African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) takes at the end of its current mandate on 31 March 2022.

Following the opening remark by Jean Kamau, Permanent Representative of Kenya and the Chairperson of the PSC for the month of February, Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), is expected to make statement. Francisco Madeira, Special Representatives of the Chair of the Commission for Somalia and Head of AMISOM will also make a presentation. The Representative of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is also expected to make a statement.

Tomorrow’s session comes against the background of series of meetings held in Addis Ababa, Mogadishu and virtually involving the Federal Government of Somalia, the AU and the UN and the EU as well. This is the first session on AMISOM in 2022 since the last time the PSC met in December. It is to be recalled that the PSC’s endorsement of option 1 (AU-UN Hybrid Mission) of the AU Independent Assessment Team’s report during it 1037th session did not attract the support of Somalia and also the UN. Actually, FGS issued a statement rejecting the PSC’s decision. It was in this context that the PSC requested the AU Commission through the communiqué of its 1042nd session to immediately resume consultations with Somalia and the relevant international partners to reach a mutually acceptable and workable agreement on the nature, strategic objectives, mandate, size, composition and financing of the AU-UN Multidimensional Stabilization Mission in Somalia, which should include transition benchmarks for the handing over of responsibility for security to the Somali Security Forces.

During the 1053rd session of the PSC, the last time the PSC considered the issue of the transition of AMISOM, it discussed the report of the AU PSC field mission to Mogadishu undertaken in November 2021. It became apparent from consultations during the mission that the proposal for the establishment of an AU-UN Multidimensional Stabilization Mission in Somalia did not have the support of Somalia. International partners also underscored the need to take into account the views of the Somali government which they believe is critical in garnering the necessary support from the UN and the EU. As a follow up to these expectations, series of consultations were held between December 2021 and February 2022.

At the end of December 2021, the Director of the Conflict Management Directorate of the AU Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security held consultations with representatives of the FGS. Following the consultations, the AU and the FGS signed an agreement outlining principles and modalities on the reconfiguration of AMISOM. In pursuit of mobilizing consensus with other stakeholders, two meetings of the Somalia Quartet (FGS, AU, EU and the UN) were held. The first meeting was held on 5 January 2022 during which Quartet members welcoming the AU-FGS agreement on principles and modalities for reconfiguration of AMISOM. The second meeting was held on 26 January and discussed the outcomes of the AU-FGS technical team meeting held during the previous week and discussed the roadmap for the drawing up of the CONOPS for the newly reconfigured mission.

The AU Commission, AMISOM and FGS technical meeting on the parameters and strategic objectives for the New African Union Transitional Mission to Somalia (ATMIS) was held from 17 to 21 January in Addis Ababa Ethiopia. The result of the meeting was the signing of an 11 page long technical document outlining the principles, mandate, strategic end state, exit strategy, objectives, composition and structure of the mission, strategic management and coordination, command and control, mission support, and transition phases and benchmarks. It is envisaged that ATMIS will have a life time of 33 months and the current AMISOM Police and Troop Contributing Countries (P/TCC) and civilian personnel will form the basis of ATMIS with the possibility of expansion of the pool of P/TCCs to other AU member states.

In the communique of its 1053rd session the PSC accordingly acknowledged that any follow-on mission of AMISOM requires the support and consent of the FGS and UNSC – both of which are opposed to the establishment of a hybrid mission. While the PSC recognized the need for alignment of the reconfigured AMISOM to the Somali Transitional Plan (STP), it drew attention to the persisting institutional and capacity challenges faced by the Somalia National Army (SNA) in the fight against Al-Shabaab and emphasized once again the importance of ensuring the multidimensional nature of any follow-on mission and the need to ensure balance between the police, military and civilian components of the mission. During tomorrow’s meeting, it would be of interest for members of the PSC to confirm whether the 11-pager outcome of the technical meeting reflects these and other parameters including sustainable and predictable financing that the PSC set within the framework of its 1053rd session.

The AU and Somalia technical team continued their consultation in Mogadishu from 28th January to 9 February 2022 on the development of the Concept of Operations (CONOPs), joint report, and logistical support option for the envisaged new transition mission and they were joined by the technical teams from the UN and the EU. The joint statement issued following these technical meetings welcomed the roadmap developed by the Quartet on the finalization of the CONOPs, the joint report and the logistical support option. These documents are expected to be submitted to the Quartet principals for their consideration and endorsement. Subsequently, the final documents will be presented to the AUPSC and the Security Council.

The joint AU-Somalia proposal bases its assumptions on the effective implementation of the STP which will allow the new mission to handover security responsibilities to the Somali Security forces and winddown its operations in a matter of two years or so. But given the experiences of the past, this could be considered overly optimistic. The implementation of the transition plan was indeed fraught with so many challenges. In recent years, Al-Shabaab has also gained significant strength in continuing to create havoc and mayhem in Somalia. What contributed to this situation is the political crisis in the country and the ongoing tension between the center and the regions which has been further exacerbated by the ongoing election process. Therefore, this and other issues could possibly be raised at the AUPSC by TCCs and others.

The AUPSC will receive an update on these series of consultations which appear to have contributed to the progress made in shaping an agreed proposal by the AU and Somalia on the future of AMISOM through a newly reconfigured transition mission. However, there is no indication that AMISOM TCCs have been consulted and their views taken on board in the new joint AU-Somalia proposal. It is also the TCCs that pushed very hard for an AU-UN multidimensional mission which was proposed by the AU independent assessment and later endorsed by the AUPSC. In its communique adopted on 28 October 2021, the AUPSC also reaffirmed its decision based on its conviction that it would ensure strategic, predictable and sustainable multi-year financing for the future mission, through UN assessed contributions. It is not clear how the joint proposal will address this particularly important issue going forward. During his recent visit to Nairobi, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell was quoted as having said that “the EU will not fund the Mission based on its old structure that focused on combat and troops on the ground with little attention to rebuilding institutions”.

At the time of publishing this insight, the form of the outcome document of the session is unknown. If the PSC opts to adopt an outcome document, it will take the form of a communiqué. The PSC is expected to take note of the progress made in the consultations. The Council may reiterate its concern over the delay in the finalization of the election process in Somalia and urge the speedy finalization of the election. The Council may express concern over the volatile security situation in Somalia and the continued attack by Al-Shabaab. With respect to the consultations on ATMIS, the PSC is expected to welcome the consensus reached between the AU and FGS on the details relating to the transition mission. The PSC is expected to call for the finalization of the CONOPS for ATMIS and its submission for its consideration and adoption with active participation of P/TCCs. In terms of the duration and the various phases of the ATMIS, the PSC may call for a realistic plan that is flexible enough to allow adjustments based on the security situation on the ground and the progress made in the implementation of the STP, including Somalia Security Forces capacity to take over security responsibility for the AU mission. The PSC may also reiterate its position on the imperative for predictable and sustainable multi-year financing for ATMIS.