Updated briefing on the situation in the Horn of Africa
Amani Africa
Date | 10 February, 2022
Tomorrow (10 February), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1064th session to receive updated briefing on the situation in the Horn of Africa as one of its agenda items. This agenda item is added on the request of the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa.
Following the opening remarks by Kenya’s Permanent Representative and Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Jean Kamau, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to make statement. The main focus of the session is to receive updated briefing from AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa, H.E. President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is undertaking visits to various parts of Ethiopia. The focus of the briefing is accordingly expected to be on the activities of the High Representative for peace process in Ethiopia since the last briefing.
This is the third time that the High Representative briefs the PSC since his appointment in August 2021. It is to be recalled that the last time the Council convened a dedicated session on the situation was during its 1045th meeting that was held on 08 November 2021. It is expected that during tomorrow’s session his briefing will address two issues. The first of these that PSC member states expect him to brief them on is his work plan and strategies for implementing the peace process. Second, the High Representative is expected to provide an overview of peace and security developments on the situation in Ethiopia since his last briefing in November 2021. He is also expected to highlight his diplomatic engagements since he last updated the Council, and may outline next steps.
Since the PSC’s last briefing from the High Representative, there have been significant developments in the conflict in northern Ethiopia. The conflict has taken a heavy toll on civilians and the economy since its eruption in early November 2020. In the course of 2021, the conflict expanded beyond Tigray and spilled over to the neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar. Since November, the dynamics of the conflict have changed, with the military balance of power shifting in favour of Ethiopian Government forces. Tigrayan forces, under pressure from drone reliant counter-offensive from Federal Government forces, announced on 21 December their withdrawal from territories they seized in Amhara and Afar regions and retreated to their own region. On 23 December 2021, the government of Ethiopia announced a pause to the fighting stating that it will not move further into Tigray region.
Some other notable developments include the announcement on 7 January 2022 by the government on the release of high-profile political prisoners including senior members of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The Chairperson of the AU Commission issued a statement dated 8 January 2022 expressing that he is ‘pleased to learn of the release of political opposition figures detained in Ethiopia.’ The government also issued a law setting up a national dialogue Commission, which is being viewed by international actors as a welcome development despite uncertainties and contestations about inclusivity and representativeness of the process. It was against this background that the UN also issued a statement. In a statement that the UN Secretary-General issued on 19 January, he stated that Obasanjo ‘briefed him about the efforts being made by the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF) to move towards a resolution of the violent conflict.’
Though the PSC discussed the situation in Ethiopia during the summit level session in last March under AOB, a formal and substantive engagement happened only at its 1045th emergency session of November 2021. In that session, the Council, among others, urged parties for an immediate cessation of hostilities and pursue political dialogue. The Council also highlighted the imperative of ensuring an impartial, effective, transparent and prompt investigation into alleged violations. It further requested at the session, to receive periodic updates on the situation and tomorrow’s session is also convened within this framework. It is to be recalled that Ethiopia requested the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR) to conduct a joint investigation into the alleged human right violations in Tigray during the March summit level session. The ACHPR launched investigation independently on its own in June 2021, despite lack of agreement with the government of Ethiopia on the modalities for such investigation.
On the side-lines of the AU Summit held on 5-6 February, Obasanjo held consultations. One such consultation he held was with Djibouti’s President Ismail Guelleh. The discussion led to the expression of support by Guelleh to the mandate of Obasanjo and approval of the assignment of Mohamed Idriss Farah, former Permanent Representative of Djibouti to the AU and a well-known figure in the diplomatic circles in Addis Ababa, to Obasanjo’s mediation team.
Continuing with his effort to achieve ceasefire and progress towards establishing the ground for peace talks, Obasanjo undertook visits to parts of Ethiopia including Kombolcha and the capital of Tigray, Mekelle. He also travelled to the Afar region along with President Sahelework Zewde. Since his appointment in August, Obasanjo has been engaged in shuttle diplomacy between Addis Ababa and Mekelle, and further interacting with key actors such as Kenya and US. In tomorrow’s session, Obasanjo is expected to brief the Council about his recent diplomatic engagements to end the conflict and update the Council where the process currently stands. Among others, he is expected to highlight on-going efforts to address the humanitarian situation in various parts of the country and potential for progress for the release of prisoners of war which may serve as catalyst for progress in other fronts.
On the battle front, despite the suspension of ground offensive, there have been reports that drone attacks targeting places in Tigray have continued. Similarly, most recently reports have emerged that fighting has erupted and continues in Afar involving Tigrayan forces. These have resulted in the needless loss of innocent lives and the displacement of others. On the other hand, essential services such as banking and electricity remain disconnected.
Two issues may be of interest to the Council in tomorrow’s discussion. The first is how to secure an immediate cessation of hostilities and unhindered humanitarian access, which would further pave the way for a broader political settlement to the conflict. Second, some positive developments notably the delivery through air of much needed aid by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) highlights the importance of addressing the dire humanitarian situation in the region and other parts, including by resolving the conditions limiting the delivery of emergency food aid and medical assistance. According to a 20 January OCHA situation report, an estimated 9.4 million people need food assistance in northern Ethiopia, and 3.9 million people in Tigray are in need of health services. In this respect, it remains critical for the AU to intensify its engagement through the High Representative, particularly in terms of encouraging the expansion of the current efforts and openings in the delivery of humanitarian assistance towards full humanitarian access to those most in need of such assistance.
The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communique. The Council may particularly reiterate its call for immediate cessation of hostilities and unhindered access to humanitarian access as a first step towards a broader political settlement to the conflict. The Council may however welcome the recent developments that contribute to reducing tension including the release of prisoners and the decision not to enter into Tigray as well as the retreat of Tigrian forces to Tigray. Commending the efforts of the High Representative to the Horn of Africa, the Council may urge the Representative to seize the moment and step-up diplomatic engagement with parties to the conflict as well as regional leaders and actors for sustaining some of the initial positive measures taken. The PSC may also welcome the delivery of aid by the ICRC and encourage the easing of the conditions that have impended humanitarian access for reaching those in desperate need of humanitarian assistance before it is too late. It may also call on the international community to extend full support to the efforts of Obasanjo and to encourage all sides to enhance measures that facilitate the smooth delivery of humanitarian aid, the end of the resumption of essential services, the achievement of ceasefire and the process towards peace talks.
Updates on the situation in Guinea
Amani Africa
Date | 10 February, 2022
Tomorrow (10 February), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to convene its 1064th session. As one of the agenda items of the session, the PSC will receive updates on the situation in Guinea.
Following the opening remarks of the PSC Chairperson of the month and Permanent Representative of Kenya to the AU, Jean Kamau, the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to provide update to the PSC. The representative of Ghana, as Chair of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Authority of Heads of State and Government, is also expected to deliver a statement.
The last time Council addressed the situation in Guinea was at its 1036th meeting convened on 5 October 2021. At that session, in addition to upholding the decision of its 1030th session to suspend Guinea from all AU activities until the restoration of constitutional order, Council endorsed the outcomes of the communiqué of the 16 September 2021 Extraordinary Session of ECOWAS. The ECOWAS communiqué, among others, called for the conduct of general elections in Guinea within six months period. Tomorrow’s session is expected to review developments in Guinea since PSC’s last session and consider how to address challenges to the return of constitutional order in Guinea.
Despite the measures taken both at the level of the AU and ECOWAS, Guinea is not any closer to having clear plan for return to constitutional order. According to ECOWAS’s decision, Guinea was to conduct elections in the upcoming month of March 2022 to ensure the end of the transition period and peaceful transfer of power to a democratically elected government. Five months after the coup, the authorities are yet to adopt a transitional calendar. It is to be recalled that Guinea’s authorities have already expressed concerns that more time may be required for constitutional review and institutional reforms to be completed.
From the perspective of the AU and ECOWAS, some of the policy challenges that the coup in Guinea and the other West African countries give rise to include the parameters for determining timeline for restoration of constitutional order and the set of reform measures that the AU and ECOWAS need to support to ensure that the countries will not find themselves in the same situation. While speedy return to constitutional order prevents the chance of the men in uniform entrenching their hold and influence on the political process of their countries, it does not give enough time for initiating, developing and implementing the minimum reform measures that address the factors that created the conditions for the coup. Striking the balance between the two demands necessitates that ECOWAS and the AU along with the UN and other actors need to adopt a hands-on approach to the initiation, development and rolling out of the requisite reform measures by being active part of the process of drawing up transitional plans by the countries concerned.
On 3 February 2022, ECOWAS convened an Extraordinary Summit where it deliberated on the occurrence of repeated coups in multiple countries in the west African region. The session addressed the political situations in Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali. While the communiqué of the Extraordinary Summit was strongly worded in its rejection of coups and in affirming the regional bloc’s “principle of zero tolerance for ascension to power through unconstitutional means”, it also makes it evident that there is a need for flexibility and striking a balance between those competing needs of speedy return to constitutional order and investing enough time and the requisite support for ensuring successful transition. This was demonstrated through the request of ECOWAS for the proposal of acceptable transitional timelines in the cases of all three countries addressed at the session. In the case of Guinea, while it expressed concern over the lack of an electoral calendar and decided to uphold the sanctions imposed at the Extraordinary Session of 16 September 2021, it requested the transition authorities to submit “an acceptable timetable for restoring constitutional order”. ECOWAS’s choice to refrain from demanding that the previously stipulated timeline of six months be met could be regarded as a more realistic approach which would allow the authorities to take account of circumstances on the ground and determine the shortest possible period it would take for conducting elections. While the recognition of the need for such principled flexibility and balancing explains this policy shift on the part of ECOWAS, the controversial reactions invoked by ECOWAS’s additional sanctions against Mali imposed at its Extraordinary Summit of 9 January 2022, and particularly Guinea’s following declaration that it will not close its borders with Mali in clear opposition to ECOWAS’s sanctions, could have also influenced the regional bloc’s somewhat softened stance.
While determination of a specific timeline for the elections is still a pending issue, the formation of the National Transitional Council (CNT) has been a commendable step achieved by Guinean’s transition authorities. The CNT which is to serve as the interim legislative organ is expected to adopt the transition calendar which will establish the schedule for the conduct of the elections. The CNT convened its inaugural session on 5 February 2022 where notably, the importance of drawing up a constitution which will not allow elites to remain indefinitely in power was highlighted. Having regard to the context under which Guinea’s unconstitutional change of government took place and noting how one of the underlying factors which facilitated the coup was the 2020 constitutional amendment – which served to keep former President Conde for a third term in office – the CNT’s focus on drafting a constitution which cannot be easily manipulated for extension of presidential term limits is well placed. But it is imperative that such constitutional review process actually serves such public and democratic purposes by, among others, enhancing separation of powers and checks and balances, independence of the judiciary, accountable and constitutionally limited authority of the executive and security sector reform that ensures a professional military that is under a democratic civilian authority.
Another development since Council’s previous session on the situation in the country is the appointment of a civilian Prime Minister, although key political positions in the transition, including positions of regional administrators, continue to be occupied by military figures. It is also to be recalled that the demand to release former President Conde has been repeatedly reiterated by both the PSC and ECOWAS. Following the initiation of legal proceedings to look into crimes committed during Conde’s term in office, the former President has reportedly been permitted to leave the country for medical reasons. The continued limitation to Conde’s freedom of movement in the absence of any concreate legal charges would constitute violation of basic human rights standards. The decision to allow the former President’s medical travel is therefore a move made in the right direction for Guinea’s transitional leaders which should be maintained.
The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. Council is expected to note the formation of the CNT and encourage Guinea’s military authorities to sustain their commitment in finalising the establishment of the interim legislative body. It may urge Guinea’s transition authorities to prioritise the determination of a timeline for the transition period and schedule the date for general elections. Council may also encourage Guinean authorities to ensure that they stick by the decision made not to run for elections at the end of the transitional period. It may also stress the need for the authorities to ensure inclusivity in the constitutional review and institutional reform processes. Council may also follow up on the request made at its 1036th session for the AU Commission to provide the needed technical support to Guinea in order to assist the authorities in developing and implementing a transitional plan that ensures restoration of constitutional order and successful implementation of necessary constitutional and institutional reforms. The PSC may also call on the AU Commission working with ECOWAS and the UN to undertake a needs assessment mission to Guinea for engaging Guinea authorities and other stakeholders on the adoption of transitional plan that is in accord with AU and ECOWAS norms and addresses the factors that precipitated the coup in Guinea. It may also reiterate its plan to undertake a field mission to Guinea.
Open Session on Urbanisation, Women, Peace and Security Nexus
Amani Africa
Date | 08 February, 2022
Tomorrow (8 February) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1063rd session on ‘Urbanization, Women, Peace and Security in Africa’. The meeting will be held at ministerial level.
Following the opening remarks of Raychelle Omamo, Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs of Kenya and Chairperson of the PSC for the month of February 2022, Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security is expected to make a statement. Bineta Diop – AU Special Envoy for Women, Peace and Security and President of Femmes Africa Solidarité (FAS), Maimunah Mohd Sharif – the Executive Director of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN‐Habitat) and Mabigue Ngom – Senior Advisor to the Executive Director and Director of the UNFPA Representation Office to AU and UNECA are expected to deliver presentations.
The session is convened as part of PSC’s standing theme on Women, Peace and Security (WPS). However it is for the first time that the PSC is considering the WPS agenda in relation to urbanization. In this context the session is expected to reflect on the effects of urbanization on the safety and wellbeing of women. Urbanization is often times associated with development, notably both Agenda 2063 and Agenda 2030 recognize urbanization as a driver of sustainable growth and transformation. However, there is also an increasing trend of instability due to the lack of proper management and planning of urbanization and urban spaces.
Africa is urbanizing rapidly. The rate of urbanization is projected to reach 60% in 2050. Similarly urban population in the continent is expected to triple in the coming decades. However rapid and unplanned urbanization has led to the formation of informal settlements, the expansion of slums as well as insecurity in these spaces. Urban violence in Africa has spiked to 41% in the second decade of 2000 despite the fact that Africa’s urbanization has remained limited as compared to other parts of the world. The adverse effects of urbanization have been particularly grave on women. Gender inequality and the lack of protection mechanisms has particularly exposed women to specific sets of challenges. Women are particularly affected by growing urban insecurity and its consequences in the form of sexual and gender based violence and forced eviction. Discriminatory inheritance laws and legal limitations over women’s land ownership has led to their arbitrary eviction and displacement. These legal gaps and the lack of protection of women’s basic human rights has deprived their access to livelihood and compelled them to live in a perpetual cycle of economic dependence and uncertainty .
Governments are grappling with managing the rising expectations of citizens that emanate from rapid urbanization and delayed socio-economic transformation that is expected to uplift people from poverty. The unmet expectations of people have contributed to growing frustration and particularly the youth have expressed their discontent through protest and even riots demanding for better socio-economic opportunities and prospect.
The other aspect of instability related to urbanization is the increasing trend of conflicts taking place in cities. Warfare in the continent is increasingly taking an urban dimension. Fighting and terrorist attacks are taking place in populated cities and targeting civilian population. In addition to the violence which women experience in times of conflicts, the destruction of vital infrastructure deprives their access to life saving and health care services, which is already weak in pre-conflict period. Women also constitute the majority of displaced population. Hence creating another layer of complexity for women in urban humanitarian settings.
According to the concept note, the open session aims to provide a platform for participants to discuss, highlight and explore the nexus between urbanization and women, peace and security in Africa. It also aims to explore the role that sustainable urbanization and effective cities and local governments can play in preventing the escalation of conflicts and preventing humanitarian crisis. The session is based on the need to examine the current situation of women across urban spaces and cities in the continent particularly in relation to peace and stability. Hence this session with a distinctive theme on urbanization and its impact on women is crucial to broaden the WPS agenda to also integrate emerging challenges related to the unique insecurities experienced by women in cities. Hence, the PSC may outline key policy recommendations and approaches to link the implementation of the WPS agenda with urbanization and conflicts in urban settings.
Tomorrow’s session is also an opportunity to raise awareness of the importance of investing in infrastructure to support the continent’s inclusive development that is also able to address the underlying root causes of inequalities. In this aspect the nexus between peace and development is crucial in the prevention of conflicts and the creation of peaceful societies. During its 1055th session PSC has underlined the importance of ‘creating inclusive societies and ensuring participation of women and youth in decision making processes related to peace, security and development’ . Hence gender equality and the empowerment of women remain fundamental components of sustainable peace and development.
The expected outcome is a communique. The PSC may urge member states to ratify, domesticate and implement relevant international and regional frameworks on the urban agenda. The Council may also reiterate its call to Member States to adopt national action plans (NAPs) for the proper implementation of UNSC Resolution 1325 for members that have not yet done so and reflect in the NAPs mechanisms to advance the rights and protection of women in urban settings. The council may also urge for the development of the guidelines on mainstreaming women peace and security issues in the urban development and planning policies. The PSC may reiterate its previous call for member states to collect disaggregated data including impacts of urbanization to ensure that women’s needs and experiences in fragile context inform policies. PSC may urge members states to address the safety and security of women and adopt policies that secure their ownership to land and resources to ensure the eventual realization of their economic independence. The PSC may also note the increasingly urban nature of crises, and the need to adapt the approaches to peace support operations that can respond to these specific challenges.
2022 ELECTION OF THE 15 MEMBERS OF THE PSC: CONDUCT AND OUTCOME OF THE ELECTIONS
Amani Africa
Date | February, 2022
INTRODUCTION
The election for the 15 members of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union (AU) was held on 3 February 2022 at the meeting of the 40th ordinary session of the Executive Council in line with its delegated power pursuant to Decision Assembly/ AU/Dec.106 (VI) of the Sixth Ordinary Session of the Assembly. The outcome of the election is expected to be approved by the Assembly during its 35th ordinary session, scheduled to take place on 5-6 February. While providing update on the conduct and outcome of the election, this policy brief also highlights some of the dynamics that transpired during the election as well as priorities for the new PSC.
