Climate Change: Challenges to Peace and Security in Africa
Climate Change: Challenges to Peace and Security in Africa
5 March 2025
Tomorrow (6 March), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene its 1263rd session to discuss ‘Climate Change: Challenges to Peace and Security in Africa.’
Following opening remarks by Mohammed Arrouchi, Permanent Representative of Morocco to the AU and the Chairperson of the PSC for March, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to make a statement. In addition, the AU Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment may also deliver a statement. A representative of the UN may also make a statement.
The PSC last convened a session dedicated to climate change, peace, and security during its 1240th session on 30 October 2024 to discuss the Common African Position on Climate, Peace and Security (CAP-CPS). The consultation was intended to create a shared understanding among PSC members of the intricate nexus between climate change, peace, and security in Africa while gathering feedback to refine the Common African Position. Emphasising the importance of the CAP-CPS as a guiding framework, the session highlighted the necessity for effective collaboration among the AU, regional stakeholders, national governments, and international partners. In tomorrow’s session, the PSC may follow up on progress toward finalising the CAP-CPS for timely adoption, particularly in light of upcoming international events such as the 2025 G20 Summit in South Africa and the UN Climate Conference (COP30) scheduled for 10-21 November 2025 in Belém, Brazil.
Climate change continues to pose a significant threat to regional peace, security and development. The impacts of climate change, such as forced migration, food insecurity and economic disruptions, have the potential to exacerbate existing conflicts and introduce new vulnerabilities. Floods, cyclones, droughts and other climate-related shocks continue to severely affect the African continent. The effects of climate change continue to threaten regional peace, security and development. With rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme weather events, human health, food and water security, and socio-economic development continue to be threatened. Ironically, Africa contributes just 4% of global carbon emissions despite being the continent that suffers the most from climate change. The International Rescue Committee indicated that seven of the ten countries most at risk from climate-related disasters are situated in Africa; sixteen countries are caught in the intersection of climate vulnerability and armed conflict, representing a staggering 44% of people impacted by natural disasters and 79% of those in humanitarian need. One in four of those countries are in West Africa: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria.
In 2024, the Sahel region experienced devastating floods, which resulted in significant loss of life and destruction of cropland. Nearly 400 people died in Niger, and more than 1.5 million others were affected by floods triggered by last year’s torrential rains. A further 405 were injured, and more than 200,000 households – amounting to 1,526,653 people. Still, in the same year, it was reported that the Southern Africa region experienced its worst drought in over 100 years. The 2023/24 rainy season triggered widespread drought conditions across the region, driven by the El Niño climate phenomenon of 2023–2024, which was officially declared by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in July 2023, marking the first major El Niño event since 2018–2019. This declaration followed observations of sustained warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. Concurrently, elevated temperatures exacerbated water stress, compounding challenges for regional food security.
Another important issue worth considering in tomorrow’s deliberation is climate financing. As major European donors scale back assistance and climate financing, African governments face increased pressure to invest in disaster response capacities and identify alternative funding sources. President Donald Trump’s 2025 budget proposal, on the other hand, to reduce the U.S. humanitarian aid by 42% threatens to cripple Africa’s capacity to recover from climate-driven catastrophes, including the intensified droughts, cyclones and flash floods that have displaced over 15 million people across the continent since 2023. This policy shift seeks to slash foreign aid budgets by over 90%, specifically targeting the elimination of multiyear contracts and grants that do not align with the ‘America First’ agenda. This would result in a USD 54 billion reduction in overseas development and aid programs, disproportionately impacting African nations already reeling from intensified droughts and floods linked to climate change.
It should also be recalled that one of the key outcomes of COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November 2024, was the decision to triple climate finance for developing countries, raising the annual target from USD 100 billion to USD 300 billion by 2035. Nevertheless, many African nations considered this target insufficient, as they had been pushing for a more ambitious target of USD 1.3 trillion annually. Through the adoption of the ‘New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG),’ it was decided, among other things, that ‘the new collective quantified goal on climate finance will support the implementation of developing country Parties’, inter alia, nationally determined contributions, national adaptation plans and adaptation communications, including those submitted as adaptation components of nationally determined contributions; contribute to increasing and accelerating ambition; and reflect the evolving needs and priorities of developing country Parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and have significant capacity constraints, such as the least developed countries and small island developing States.’ To this end, the urgency to enhance resilience against climate-related disasters has never been more critical. African nations must now prioritise building robust infrastructure and systems to manage and mitigate the impacts of these events. Additionally, seeking innovative funding avenues, such as public-private partnerships, regional cooperation and international collaborations, will be essential to ensure preparedness and sustainable development in the face of climate challenges.
This PSC session, therefore, aims to highlight the imperative for collaborations and coordination among security, humanitarian, development and climate actors to develop effective responsive and preventative strategies which will bolster and fortify community resilience in the face of escalating climate impacts. It is expected that the session will not only provide a shared understanding among PSC Members of the complex nexus between climate change, peace and security in Africa but also a platform for the identification of opportunities to address climate-related security risks in Africa. The PSC may also take this opportunity to reiterate its recurrent request to the Chairperson of the Commission to appoint an AU Special Envoy for climate change and security.
The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communiqué. The PSC may underline the imperative of enhanced cooperation and collaboration in advancing the Climate, peace and security nexus between and among the AU institutions, Member States, RECs/REMs and other like-minded stakeholders. In this regard, it may highlight the importance of Member States, RECs/RMs and AU partners to actively pursue integrated approaches to boost climate change resilience and to pay particular attention to prevention and further strengthening the humanitarian-development nexus, as well as to improve communication on climate change phenomena such as drought, cyclones and floods with a view to effectively ensuring disaster preparedness and risk reduction at local, national, regional and continental levels. It is also expected that the Council will underscore the importance of the AU Commission to mainstream climate change in all its activities, particularly in early warning and prevention of climate change-related violent conflicts. Additionally, the PSC may highlight the need for the AU Commission and Member States to share experiences and best practices in addressing the adverse effects of climate change and instituting holistic national planning for development that addresses climate adaptation. It may also request the Commission to expedite the finalisation of the Common African Position on Climate Change, Peace, and Security and submit it for consideration and adoption.
Provisional Programme of Work of the Peace and Security Council for March 2025
Provisional Programme of Work of the Peace and Security Council for March 2025
Date | March 2025
In March, the Kingdom of Morocco will chair the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC), taking over the role from Equatorial Guinea. According to the rules on rotation of the monthly chairperson of the PSC in alphabetical order – Article 8 (6) of PSC Protocol and Rule 23 of the PSC Rules of Procedure – The Gambia was set to be the chairperson for March 2025. However, due to the conclusion of the duty of the ambassador, the typical alphabetical rotation could not be applied this month. While initially Sierra Leone was engaged to step in as the stand-in-Chairperson and a program of work for March was adopted on that basis, this changed just before the start of the month and Morocco became the stand-in-chairperson for March.
The provisional program of work for the month, prepared following Morocco’s assumption of the role of step-in-Chairperson, envisages a total of six substantive sessions. All the sessions, except one planned to take place at ministerial level, are scheduled to be held at ambassadorial level. Of the six sessions, except the informal consultation on countries in transition, all others are on thematic issues. As March is a transition month before the newly elected members of the PSC assume their seats in the PSC on 1 April, the provisional program, as per PSC practice, stipulates a plan for the induction of new members elected for three-year term during the 38th AU Summit.
The first meeting of the PSC introduced by the Chairperson of the month will be on ‘Climate Change: Challenges to Peace and Security in Africa,’ scheduled to take place on 6 March. It is to be recalled that this theme was on the agenda of the PSC when Morocco chaired the PSC in October 2022. Apart from the 22 October session, this month’s session is expected to build on the discussions from the last session of Council on ‘Consultations on the Common African Position vis-à-vis climate change, peace and security’ held on 30 October 2024, as its 1240th session. From the meeting, the PSC emphasised the need to ‘ensure that climate change responses are conflict-sensitive and security sensitive and that they mainstream peacebuilding efforts, as well as the need for holistic approaches that address the interlinkages between climate change and human mobility in conflict-affected settings, with a view to informing the design and implementation of policies and interventions that tackle climate-induced displacements in Africa.’
On 11 March, the PSC will receive a briefing on the activities of the AU Panel of the Wise and its subsidiary bodies, FemWise and WiseYouth. It is worth noting that the 6th members of the Panel of the Wise were elected during the 38th AU summit in February 2025. Accordingly, the summit re-elected Domitien Ndayizeye of Burundi, Effie Owuor of Kenya, and Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka of South Africa. For the membership to the Panel from North and West Africa, the AU Assembly directed ‘the incoming Chairperson of the Commission to consult with the Western and North African regions to select one (1) candidate per each region based on consensus for these vacant positions and submit to the 47th Ordinary Session of the Executive Council’ and to this end it delegated to ‘the 47th Ordinary Session of the Executive Council the authority to appoint representatives from the Western and North African regions to complete the composition of the 6th Panel of the Wise.’
It is anticipated that the Panel of the Wise will provide an update to the PSC on its activities, including on files in respect of which the PSC tasked the Panel to engage in peace efforts. While FemWise, established in 2017, has traditionally been addressed by the PSC within the context of its Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda, this session will be an opportunity for the PSC to engage with FemWise and WiseYouth within the broader framework of its collaboration with the Panel of the Wise.
On the same day, 11 March, the PSC is scheduled to consider and adopt the program of work for the month of April.
The next session taking place on 13 March will be dedicated to ‘Deradicalisation as leverage in the fight against violent extremism in Africa.’ PSC 1111th meeting held in October 2022 underlined the need for ‘expedited implementation of all decisions adopted by Council and the Assembly of the Union, particularly Decision [Ext/Assembly/AU/Dec. (XVI)] adopted by the 16th Extraordinary Session of the AU Assembly held on 28 May 2022, in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea.’ In addition, this session is expected to build upon the call during this 1111th session on the need for reviewing all AU counter-terrorism frameworks and instruments. In this context, the AU Commission was requested by Council to include countering radicalisation and extremist ideologies in the envisaged review of the African Plan of Action on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism and Violent Extremism.
On 18 March, the PSC will have the ‘Informal Consultation with Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan.’ It should be recalled that informal consultations with countries undergoing political transitions were incorporated into the PSC’s aptitude for working methods following its decision during the 14th Retreat on working methods, held from 17 to 19 November 2022. The conclusions of the retreat introduced these consultations as a mechanism to facilitate direct engagement with representatives of countries suspended from participation in the AU due to unconstitutional changes of government, in line with Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol. Since then, two such consultations have been held – in April and December 2023. This engagement was, however, supposed to happen in December 2024 but did not. It was re-introduced on the PPoW in January, but similarly did not happen.
As of the beginning of 2025, the latest political developments in Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan reflect countries marked by ongoing instability and military-led transitions. As pointed out in an edition of Insights on the PSC on this subject, one of the reasons for the use of informal consultation is to provide a platform for engagement between the PSC and the affected countries. Since the introduction of this format, the engagement between the PSC and these countries has shown improvements. However, it remains unclear how these engagements have changed the dynamics of the AU’s role in relation to these countries.
The last session of the month will be held on 20 March at the Ministerial level. The session will be committed to ‘Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its impact on Peace, Security and Governance in Africa.’ We can recall that during the 44th Ordinary Session of the AU Executive Council held on 14 and 15 February 2024, in an effort to explore the role of AI in promoting peace, security and development nexus in Africa, the Council through Decision [EX.CL/Dec.1233-1264(XLIV)], endorsed the ‘Conceptual Framework of the Continental Artificial Intelligence (AI) Strategy’ and requested the AU Commission to ‘Expedite the development of the Continental Cybersecurity strategy and the Continental Artificial Intelligence (AI) strategy with their implementation roadmaps.’ This was followed by a ‘Multistakeholder Consultative Sessions on the Development of a Continental Strategy on Artificial Intelligence (AI)’ from 19 to 24 April 2024’ to support and guide the development of a continental approach and strategy on AI that responds to Africa’s context, address its needs and position the continent as an active player at global level. Consequently, AUDA-NEPAD published a White Paper on ‘Regulation and Responsible Adoption of AI in Africa Towards Achievement of AU Agenda 2063’ alongside the AUDA-NEPAD AI Roadmap for Africa. The 1214th PSC session held in June 2024 further requested the AU Commission, ‘in particular the Political Affairs Peace and Security Department, in coordination with the Department of Infrastructure and Energy, to establish a multidisciplinary Advisory Group on Artificial Intelligence, peace, security and good governance in Africa; and to propose options for Continental Artificial Intelligence governance, including its military application and to report to Council every six months.’ It is expected that this upcoming PSC session will serve to receive an update on whether there is progress in this respect.
Aside from these substantive sessions, the induction of the new members of the PSC, elected at the 46th Ordinary Session of the Executive Council and endorsed by the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly, is expected to be the last activity of the PSC for the month of March 2025. The induction program of the Committee of Experts and the newly elected PSC members is scheduled to be held from 22 to 28 March in Arusha, Tanzania. The program of work also envisages (on the footnote) a possible briefing by PSC Chairs for January, February and March 2025 on the activities of the PSC during their respective chaired months, as well as a dinner reception on 31 March by the Chairperson of the month.
Monthly Digest on The African Union Peace And Security Council - January 2025
Monthly Digest on The African Union Peace And Security Council - January 2025
Date | January 2025
In January 2025, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) undertook its activities under the chairship of the Republic of Cote d’Ivoire. During the month, the Council had a scheduled program of work consisting of seven substantive sessions covering eight agenda items, with only one session dedicated to conflict-specific situation. The Provisional Program of Work (PPoW) underwent two revisions during the month. As a result, the Council held five substantive sessions covering seven agenda items, with only one addressing conflict-specific situation. All sessions except one held at the ministerial level were held at the ambassadorial level. The Council also had an Open Session to commemorate the third Africa Day of Peace and Reconciliation.
The 2025 Election of the Five Members of the PSC: Conduct and Outcome of the Elections
The 2025 Election of the Five Members of the PSC: Conduct and Outcome of the Elections
Date | 25 February 2025
INTRODUCTION
The election of the 5 members of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union (AU) was held on 12 February 2025 at the 46th Ordinary Session of the Executive Council in line with its delegated power pursuant to Decision Assembly/AU/Dec.106(VI) of the sixth Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly. The outcome of the elections was endorsed by the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly held on 15 and 16 February 2025. While providing an update on the conduct and outcome of the election, this policy brief also highlights some of the dynamics that transpired during the election and the new composition of the PSC.
The outcomes of the 38th AU Summit: Turning point for repositioning the AU for a new era?
The outcomes of the 38th AU Summit: Turning point for repositioning the AU for a new era?
Background and Rationale
The 38th ordinary session of the AU Assembly took place at a historic moment when tectonic changes and challenges both on the continent and globally in recent years have brought the AU to a critical crossroads. Apart from the relevant decisions on institutional reform, peace and security and leveraging of AU’s membership in the G20 particularly in the context of South Africa’s presidency, the AU summit’s election of the new leadership of the African Union (AU) marks a pivotal moment for the continent, offering a unique opportunity to redefine the Union’s approach and mode of work to the pursuit of its strategic objectives as set out in its founding instruments and key strategic instruments including Agenda 2063. If this leadership transition breaks from the business-as-usual approach to the profound changes and challenges, it can enable Africa not only to fend off and minimize the adverse impacts of these changes and challenges and to leverage its immense potential, driven by the world’s youngest population, huge reserve of renewable energy, vast arable land and a growing middle class.
Economic pressures, including soaring debt levels, a worsening cost-of-living crisis, punishingly expensive cost of access to development finance are eroding some of the gains made in recent decades as millions of people are pushed into extreme poverty. Meanwhile, conflicts are reaching unprecedented levels in both scale and geographic spread, further destabilizing the continent as outlined in two major Amani Africa research reports (here and here). Efforts toward regional integration are also facing setbacks, exemplified by rising inter-state tensions and the recent withdrawal of the three Sahel countries from ECOWAS, signaling a fragmentation of regional blocs. While demand for a democratic and accountable system of governance continues to rise and several countries show electoral democratic resilience in the face of challenges, democratic governance and constitutional rule remain under strain, with disputed elections and a resurgence of military coups threatening stability. At the same time, the global order is shifting, marked by the rise of multipolarity, rapid technological advancements, and evolving trade and economic dynamics.
These changes and challenges present both opportunities and risks for Africa, requiring a proactive and adaptive AU leadership to navigate them with robust technical competence, imaginative diplomacy and strategic clarity as well as mobilization of will and strategy for policy implementation.
In this context, Amani Africa Research and Media Services (Amani Africa) jointly with the AU Economic, Social and Cultural Council (ECOSOC) with participation of UNDP is convening a policy dialogue forum on 27 February 2025. This forum will serve as a critical platform to assess the implications of the AU’s leadership transition and identify strategic priorities for the organization’s future.
Objectives and Key Themes
This policy dialogue aims to analyze the key takeaways from the 38th AU summit and the significance of and the opportunities from the AU leadership transition that will define the Union’s role in the coming years. In light of the pressing issues facing the continent, there is a need for providing leadership by the AU on some of the most pressing issues. One such issue is addressing the challenges to development finance and addressing the debt burden. In her powerful address at the 38th AU Summit, H.E. Mia Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados, emphasized that
“…reparations must also ensure fair access to development and compensation because our journey to independence started with a chronic deficit—a deficit of resources, fairness, and opportunity…”
This statement underscores the need to address both historical injustices and contemporary barriers that perpetuate inequality. How can the new AU leadership advocate for reforms in the international financial architecture that address Africa’s underrepresentation, inequitable access to financial assistance, and reform of sovereign debt challenges? having regard to the African Union’s 2023 theme of ‘Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations.’
Another key focus will be on the AU’s engagement with the G20 under South Africa’s presidency, particularly in leveraging Africa’s full membership to drive global governance reforms and advance the continent’s development agenda. Central to the discussion will be the acceleration of Agenda 2063, a blueprint for Africa’s socio-economic transformation, which requires strong institutional leadership and coherent policy implementation.
On the peace and security front, the discussion will reflect on both the outcomes of the PSC summit on Sudan and DRC and the proposals on resetting the African Peace and Security Architecture within the framework of the AU institutional reform in view of the vision of the new AU leadership.
Expected Outcomes
By bringing together policymakers, the event seeks to generate a deeper understanding of the outcome of the 38th AU summit, the opportunities that the election of the new leadership of the AU presents and how to take forward the outcomes of the 38th AU summit and how to build on them for charting a strategic vision for the next four years for repositioning the continental body in order to make it fit for mobilizing collective action that the current challenges demand. In so doing, the dialogue aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of Africa’s evolving role in global governance and the necessary institutional reforms to enhance the effectiveness of the AU.
