Briefing on the situation in Guinea Bissau
Amani Africa
Date | 27 January, 2020
Tomorrow (27 January) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold a briefing session on Guinea Bissau. The AU Peace and Security Department and Department of Political Affairs may brief the Council. Also expected to make statement is the representative of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
The briefing is expected to focus on the recent presidential election conducted in the country. On 24 November, Guinea-Bissau held the first round of its presidential elections. From the twelve candidates, no candidate garnered the 50 percent vote required to win the election. Two candidates, namely, Domingos Simões Pereira (Partido Africano para a Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde – PAIGC) and Umaro Sissoco Embaló (Movimento para Alternância Democrática (MADEM) G- 15), qualified for the run off election, which was held on 29 December.
Both the AU and ECOWAS have mobilized efforts to support the electoral process in Guinea Bissau. The AU has deployed African Union Election Observation Mission (AUEOM), led by Joaquim Rafael Branco, former Prime Minister of the Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe to monitor and report on the conduct of the election. The Mission comprises 13 Long Term Observers (LTO) and 40 Short Term Observers (STO). The LTO were deployed since 19 November 2019 up to 5 January 2020 while the STO were deployed in Bissau on
22 December until 3 January 2020. Similarly, ECOWAS has supported the election process with 1.5 million USD, deployment of ECOMIB and the deployment of pre- electoral, long and short-term observers and technical team.
According to the preliminary statement of the AU Election Observation Mission, while the runoff election was held in a peaceful political atmosphere, it observed that ‘social tension within the ranks of the public administration owing to delays in salaries [and] strikes by teachers.’ From final results released by the National Electoral Commission (CNE), opposition candidate Embaló won the December run-off ballot with 54% of the vote while Pereira garnered 46%.
Despite the commission’s confirmation of former Prime Minister Umaro Cissoko Embalo as winner of the December presidential run-off vote, Domingos Simoes Pereira contested the result at the Supreme Court with allegations fraud. This has cast a cloud of uncertainty about the post-electoral situation in the country including the political transition.
Embaló’s victory has already received recognition from various stakeholders in the region and the international community. ECOWAS welcomed the peaceful conduct of presidential elections and took note of the final results of the run-off presidential election announced on 17 January 2020 by the CNE and reconfirmed by the same authority on 21 January 2020. The ECOWAS in the communiqué released on 22 January further confirmed Embaló victory vis a vis his opponent Pereira. The ECOWAS Commission urged the various national institutions to finalize their activities and to prepare for the inauguration of the new president elect.
PAIGC and its candidate Pereira rejected ECOWAS’s statement arguing that it came while the institutions involved in the electoral process are still trying to agree on the election result and the legal process envisaged in the constitution has as yet to be finalized. The Supreme Court of Justice (STJ) ordered the CNE to carry out the national counting of the results. CNE says that it has already taken this step before publishing the results and announcing Embaló’s victory. The Parliament, on the other hand has stated that without the steps required by the STJ having been carried out by the CNE, it will not be able to swear in Embaló on the proposed date of 19 February. PAIGC has also urged the international community to respect the national sovereignty and the country’s electoral legal process.
On the other hand, Embaló reiterated that the entity to declare the winner of the elections is the CNE and not the Supreme Court of Justice.He further added that the recount of the votes is unconstitutional.
The National People’s Assembly (ANP) has also presented clarifications on the process by stating that the inauguration of the elected President of the Republic takes place in a special session convened by the President of the Assembly, within a maximum period of 45 days after the announcement of the definitive results. To this end, the President of the ANP will need to receive the minutes of the national counting before conferring power to the President. This also includes the clarification by the Supreme Court of Justice on the electoral dispute brought by Pereira.
The Supreme Court of Justice on its part stated that its ruling was not about recounting the votes for the second round of the presidential elections rather it’s about national counting operations, particularly ensuring that its uninterrupted and immediately after its completion the minute is shared with all the relevant institutions.
Agreement is yet to be reached between the various national bodies mainly CNE, the Supreme Court and the Assembly. The two candidates as well have divergent positions on the outcome of the election as well as on the process of determining the winning party.
It should also be noted that the election is only one of the many steps in the democratic transition of Guinea Bissau. The PSC at its 896th session underlined ‘the imperative for the people of Guinea Bissau to expedite the much- needed institutional reforms, including constitutional reform immediately after the election’. Once the new president takes office, there are a number of political and legal transformations expected to be underway to ensure a meaningful and sustainable democratic transition in the country.
The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communiqué. The PSC may back ECOWAS’s statement and may urge national institutions to complete their activities in a way that ensures legality and institutional harmony. It may call on the various political actors to exercise restraint from any form of violence and may call on them to resolve their dispute through a peaceful process, while ensuring that gains made during the electoral process are not lost. The PSC may reiterate its 896th session underscoring the need for implementing the institutional reforms, including the constitutional review process and security sector reform. It may also commend ECOWAS for the efforts and the activities it has undertaken during the presidential election.
Briefing by the President of ICRC on the humanitarian situation in Africa in th e context of Silencing the Guns
Amani Africa
Date | 16 January, 2020
Tomorrow (16 January) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 904th session to receive a briefing on the humanitarian situation in Africa in the context of Silencing the Guns. The President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Peter Maurer, is expected to present the briefing. The Department of Peace and Security will also make a statement.
The briefing and the accompanying exchange with the ICRC is one of the thematic agendas of the PSC that usually takes place on an annual basis. The first such briefing by the ICRC took place on 9 November 2007 at the 99th session of the PSC. Since then, the PSC held more than half a dozen of such briefing sessions with the ICRC. Focusing on challenges related to humanitarian aspects of crisis and conflict situations on the continent, over the years the briefing addressed a number of issues relating to specific conflict situations and thematic issues including compliance with international humanitarian law in AU peace support operations, protection of civilians and humanitarian access.
This year’s briefing coincides with the 2020 thematic focus of the AU dedicated to Silencing the Guns in Africa. The first segment of the briefing is accordingly expected to address issues pertaining to this year’s thematic focus on silencing the guns. It is expected in this regard that Maurer would draw the attention of the PSC to the central role of political solutions to conflicts in the quest for silencing the guns in Africa. This underscores the primacy of the political for AU’s agenda for silencing the guns. Related to this, the briefing is also expected to emphasize that respect for and ensuring observance of international humanitarian law constitute the basis of the strategy for silencing the guns in Africa.
This centrality of respect for human rights, the sanctity of human life and international humanitarian law for peace and security unequivocally enshrined in the PSC Protocol and forms part of the core mandate of the PSC. Under Article 3 (f) of the PSC Protocol, one of the objectives of the PSC is to promote and encourage ‘respect for the sanctity of human life and international humanitarian law, as part of efforts for preventing conflicts.’ Similarly, within the context of its conflict prevention mandate, the PSC is vested with the power of following up the progress towards respect for the sanctity of human life and international humanitarian law by Member States under Article 7(1)(m).
Another issue that the briefing would address in the context of silencing the guns is weapons control and disarmament as well as strengthening compliance frameworks in peace support operations. It is expected in this respect that Maurer would applaud the critical role of African states in the Arms Trade Treaty and in the effort for non-proliferation. Also expected to be highlighted is the efforts for controlling illicit flow of small arms and light weapons as a major area of intervention in the AU Master Roadmap for Silencing the Guns.
More broadly, the briefing will also highlight the progress made in developing AU’s compliance framework for African peace operations. It is to be recalled that as part of the development of the AU human rights, humanitarian law and conduct and discipline compliance and accountability framework, the PSC during its 813th session on 29 November 2018 adopted the AU Policy on Conduct and Discipline and the AU Policy on Prevention and Response to Sexual Exploitation and Abuse for PSOs. There remain questions most notably on the role and responsibility of the AU for ensuring respect for the compliance framework in the context in particular of the ad hoc military coalition operations authorized by the AU such as the MNJTF or G5 Sahel Joint Force.
In this context, consideration could be made to the need for consolidation of all the various compliance instruments into an integrated and comprehensive HR, IHL and Conduct and Discipline Compliance and Accountability framework for AU PSOs with provisions on responsibility in cases of ad hoc coalition. This has been proposed by the 2018 report of the Comprehensive Assessment of AU Mandated and Authorized Peace Support Operations Human Rights and Humanitarian Law Compliance and Conduct and Discipline Approaches undertaken by PSOD in collaboration with the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights.
On the humanitarian dimension of conflicts and crisis, it is expected that the briefing will highlight the humanitarian-peace-development nexus, reaffirming and drawing attention to the necessity to reinforce the interplay between the development, peace and security and humanitarian actors in meeting the protection and assistance needs of affected populations. As a follow up to his field visits to IDP and refugee camps in Ethiopia, Maurer is expected to inform the PSC about the effect of the combination of climate change, conflict and violence in forcing people to flee their homes to become IDPs and refugees.
In this context, it is also of particular interest for the PSC how conflicts and climate induced environmental conditions and grave whether events reinforce each other and have come to have devastating consequences in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel regions. Given that countries in these regions also host large number of IDPs and refugees, the need for the international community to assume its full responsibility by sharing the burden of host countries is also expected to be highlighted.
The briefing is also expected to reiterate the critical importance of humanitarian access and the need for the PSC and the AU in general to work on facilitating humanitarian access, as part of the mandate on humanitarian effects of crisis and conflict. This requires that the nature and scale of the humanitarian impact of crises and conflicts are adequately factored in when considering and initiating responses to such crises or conflicts.
The other theme expected to feature during this briefing concern the plight of migrants in Africa. Some of the issues the briefing will identify include the disappearance of migrants, the treatment of migrants in detention centres and the rise in the number of migrants in detention in various African countries. Given the requests that ICRC receives from families for tracing their family members that went missing while migrating, the briefing will emphasize the need for documentation and exchange of information.
The briefing is convened on the basis of the normative commitments made under the AU Constitutive Act and the provisions laid down in the PSC Protocol. Under Article 4(o) & (m) of the Constitutive Act, member states have made a legal commitment to respect for the sanctity of human life and observance of international humanitarian law. Article 4(c) of the PSC Protocol stipulates that one of the principles by which the PSC is to be guided is respect for the rule of law, fundamental human rights and freedoms, the sanctity of human life and international humanitarian law. Beyond the normative commitment, the legal basis for this briefing is to be found in Article 17 of the PSC Protocol, which mandates the PSC to establish working relationships and invite international organizations to address the PSC on issues of common interest.
The ICRC has similar engagements with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Accordingly, it briefs the UNSC in relation to, among others, the latter’s thematic agenda on the promotion of and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of peace and security. Most recently, Maurer briefed the UNSC on 13 August 2019 emphasizing that continued violations of humanitarian law do not mean the law is inadequate, but rather that efforts to ensure respect are inadequate. Urging states to be vigilant, he called on them to observe their legal obligations and take practical steps for thorough implementation of the law.
The expected outcome of the session is a press statement.
Briefing on the Security Situation in the Great Lakes Region
Amani Africa
Date | 10 January, 2020
Tomorrow (10 January) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 902nd session to receive a briefing on the security situation in the Great Lakes region. Smail Chergui Commissioner of Peace and Security and Basile Ikouebe the AU Special representatives for the Great Lakes Region may brief the Council. Representatives Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) may also participate to make statement in the partially open segment of the session.
One of the key issues that will be considered in tomorrow’s session is the implementation of the Peace and Security Cooperation Framework (PSCF) signed on 24 February 2013 by DRC, Angola, Republic of Congo, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Central African Republic, Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Zambia. Moreover, the AUC, United Nations (UN), (SADC) and (ICGLR) also signed the agreement as witnesses/guarantors.
At its 488th session the PSC has requested the AU Commission Chairperson to take the necessary steps to enhance the capacity of the AU Office for the Great Lakes Region, in order to enable the AU to further contribute to the implementation process of the PSC Framework and to support more effectively the efforts of the countries of the region. Accordingly, the Council made a decision to broaden the mandate of the Office, to also monitor the overall situation in the region and to support the implementation process of the various aspects of the PSC Framework.
Towards accelerating the implementation of the agreement, the PSC also decided to undertake a visit in the region and tasked the AUC Chair to submit quarterly reports on the development in the Great Lakes Region and on follow-up of the implementation of relevant decisions. Although this regular briefing has not taken place, tomorrow’s session may provide an opportunity to assess the status of the agreement and the political and security developments in the region.
It is to be recalled that on 27 February 2018 a high-level meeting was held marking the fifth anniversary of the signing of the PSCF, which among others reflected on the progress made and the challenges encountered. The outcome of the meeting identified the various security threats including political and electoral crisis and the activities of armed groups operating in the countries of the region by paying particular attention to South Sudan, CAR, DRC and Burundi. The meeting particularly highlighted the importance of neutralizing the negative forces in eastern DRC and complete the repatriation of foreign disarmed fighters.
Although some of the security and political challenges persist, positive developments were also witnessed. The peaceful transfer of power in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, President Tshisekedi’s encouraging outreach to his peers and a renewed commitment to regional cooperation and integration, notably by Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda and Uganda have raised hopes for enhanced regional cooperation.
Other encouraging, albeit fragile developments include the signing of the peace agreement in CAR and the agreement reached among South Sudanese parties to implement the key pre-transitional tasks relating to security arrangements and number of states.
The sustainability and implementation of the peace process in CAR may be one of the issues, which the PSC may consider in tomorrow’s briefing. Particularly the PSC may look into the violations of the provisions of the 6 February agreement singed by the government and 14 armed groups which compromises the gains made so far and may discuss on ways to enhance the political commitment of signatories and to deter the risk of lapse to another cycle of conflict.
Similarly, on South Sudan, the PSC may be briefed on the process leading up to the formation of the transitional government. It may be recalled that after the extension of the pre-transitional period for additional 100 days after the set deadline on November 12, President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar have committed to work for resolving the major issues concerning security arrangements and number of states.
Burundi was not on the agenda of the PSC in 2019. President Pierre Nkurunziza has announced that he will not run for a fourth term in the elections slated for this year. The session may discuss a number of political developments. These most notably include the election in 2020, issues related to participation, the role of the AU human rights monitors and military observers and respect for human rights in the country.
DRC remains a critical actor in the region and for the success of the PSCF’s objectives. There are a number of issues, which the PSC is expected to consider on the situation in DRC and the implication it has on the wider region. The activity of the armed groups in the eastern part of the country remains a threat, which also heavily affects neighbouring countries and border security. The groups that operate in this region and continue to pose security challenges include the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and the Résistance pour un État de droit au Burundi. Particularly the violence related to access to natural resources by various groups continues to complicate the security situation in the country. In this regard the PSC may also recall the session it held on 13 December 2019, which addressed the Bamako Declaration on Access to Natural Resources and Conflicts between Communities.
Another key development is the outbreak of the Ebola virus in the most insecure part of the country. The instability and deliberate targeting of the health workers and facilities in the area has severely affected the lifesaving emergency operations. The PSC itself at its 862nd session has authorized the immediate deployment of an AU Mission Against Ebola in DRC (MAEC) to the DRC to support the effort of combating the epidemic. Tomorrow’s session may also follow up on this decision and the steps taken in deploying the mission.
Another issue that may feature is the health of inter-state relations in the region, which is one of the major factors for the peace and security challenges facing the region. It is to be recalled that in August 2019, the PSC was briefed by Angola on the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Rwanda and Uganda, in Luanda. In addition to the bilateral cooperation in the region, the PSC may also discuss on the cross-border illegal activities that affect multiple countries and that continue to hamper regional cooperation and the effective implementation of the framework agreement.
In addition to assessing the developments, it may also be of interest to the PSC to receive update on the outcome of the meetings held by various implementation mechanisms of the framework. Primarily the Regional Oversight Mechanism, the highest oversight body under the Framework agreement which meets annually at heads of state and government level to review progress in the implementation of the agreement. The PSC may also receive a briefing on the outcomes of the ministerial meeting of the Guarantors of the framework, which held its sixth session in February 2019. The meeting assessed the security and developments in the region particularly issues related to neutralization of negative forces, strengthening cooperation among countries in the region and the political developments unfolding in the various countries.
On 3 October 2019 the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region Huang Xia briefed the UN Security Council on the latest report on the implementation of the PSCF, which also provided security, political and humanitarian updates. The report of the Special Envoy called for dialogue and cooperation in order to curtail the threat posed by foreign armed groups and the illicit exploitation and trade of natural resources. The report also underlined the need for further efforts towards exercising of basic political freedoms and human rights in the region.
The expected outcome of the session is unknown during the production of this ‘Insight on the PSC’. However, in the outcome document, the PSC may welcome the positive developments that took place in the region and urge member states to enhance their efforts towards implementing the PSCF to ensure stability in the region. The PSC may also underline the importance of political commitment and the strengthening democratic institutions for the effectiveness and sustainability of peace agreements and other political endeavours. The PSC may underline the importance of cooperation among the countries in the region as well as coordination between the multiple RECs, which are present in the region including SADC, ICGLR and East African Community.
Provisional program of work for the month of January 2020
Amani Africa
Date | January 2020
Burundi assumes the role of the monthly chairpersonship of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) for the month of January. The provisional program of work includes some five substantive sessions, including four country and region specific sessions and a high level seminar on peace and security in Africa. The committee of experts is also expected to meet regularly to consider the draft report on the Activities of the PSC and the State of Peace and Security in Africa and the draft report on the Implementation of the AU Master Roadmap on Silencing the Guns in Africa by the Year 2020.
The PSC will hold the first session of 2020 on 9 January to consider and adopt the draft provisional programme of work of the PSC for February 2020 and to continue its preparation for the annual High Level Seminar on Peace and Security in Africa taking place in Gabon, during the same month.
The following day, on 10 January the PSC will receive a briefing on the security situation in the Great Lakes Region. This is an agenda included in the program on the initiative of the Chairperson of the Month. On the same day the committee of experts will hold a preparatory session to consider the draft report on the Activities of the PSC and the State of Peace and Security in Africa and the draft report on the Implementation of the AU Master Roadmap on Silencing the Guns in Africa by the Year 2020.
From 13‐15 January the PSC will hold its annual High Level Seminar on Peace and Security in Africa with the A3 (African members in the UNSC) in Libreville, Gabon. In the light of the difficulties faced in coordination between the PSC and the A3 and the differences that emerged on the draft resolution on the financing of peace and security in Africa from UN assessed contributions, this seminar presents an opportunity for reviewing current approaches to coordination and share perspectives for achieving shared position on how to proceed with respect to the draft resolution.
On 17 January, the Committee of Experts will resume its preparatory work on the two draft reports that will be presented to the Assembly in February 2020. The Committee will also consider the draft indicative annual programme of activities of the PSC for the year 2020.
On 20 January, the PSC is scheduled to consider two agenda items. The first is the situation in South Sudan. The last time the PSC received a briefing on South Sudan was in November 2019 during the extension of the pre‐ transitional period to 100 days. This session presents the PSC an opportunity to assess what progress, if any, the parties made to finalize the pre‐transitional period tasks and consider next steps.
The second agenda item is the briefing on the situation in Guinea Bissau. The PSC received a briefing on the situation few days prior to the 24 November presidential election in the country. The country went for a run‐off election on 29 December, whose outcome is under contestation.
The committee of experts, which considers the draft reports to be submitted to the Assembly, is expected to finalize its consideration of the two reports during its meeting on 23 January.
On 28 January, the PSC is scheduled to consider the two reports and the draft indicative annual program of activities for 2020 for review and adoption.
On 30 January the PSC will have the last session of the month on the situation in Sudan. The PSC did not convene a session on Sudan since the lifting of the suspension. For the session planned for January, the PSC may invite international partners to deliberate on the process of supporting the country’s transition.
After the PSC adopted the January provisional program of work of the PSC last month, provision has been made for including an item on an interaction with the ICRC.
In addition to these agenda items the provisional program of work indicates in in footnotes possible meetings of the Military Staff Committee for which the dates are yet to be set.
The Internal Institutional Setup and Working Processes Shaping the Relationship between the AUPSC and the UNSC
Amani Africa
28 | December, 2019
The establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) under the 2002 Protocol to the AU Constitutive Act on the Establishment of the PSC 1 (PSC Protocol) and its launch in 2004 2 has transformed the peace and security landscape of the continent. Most notably, among others, it has changed the role of international engagement in the maintenance of peace and security in Africa. The PSC Protocol, in defining the principles governing the maintenance of peace and security in Africa, attributing leading role to the PSC and defining how the PSC interfaces with international actors, sets the expectations of the continent on the parameters of international action, including through the United Nations (UN), on peace and security in Africa.
The Internal Institutional Setup and Working Processes Shaping the Relationship between the AUPSC and the UNSC
Amani Africa
28 | December, 2019
The establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) under the 2002 Protocol to the AU Constitutive Act on the Establishment of the PSC 1 (PSC Protocol) and its launch in 2004 2 has transformed the peace and security landscape of the continent. Most notably, among others, it has changed the role of international engagement in the maintenance of peace and security in Africa. The PSC Protocol, in defining the principles governing the maintenance of peace and security in Africa, attributing leading role to the PSC and defining how the PSC interfaces with international actors, sets the expectations of the continent on the parameters of international action, including through the United Nations (UN), on peace and security in Africa.
