A moment of reckoning for the AU in Chad as interim leader declares candidacy for presidential election
A moment of reckoning for the AU in Chad as interim leader declares candidacy for presidential election
Date | 9 April 2024
Going against a commitment he made to an African Union (AU) delegation that visited Chad following the seizure of power by the military, Chad’s interim leader Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno declared his candidacy to run for the presidential election slated for 6 May 2024. Considering clear rules of relevant AU norms and equally clear decisions of AU’s Peace and Security Council (PSC), Deby’s candidacy raises the difficult policy question of whether the AU will continue with ‘its exceptional treatment of Chad’ or enforce relevant AU norms and its own decisions.
How this policy question is handled will set the tone for the six other countries (Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan) that are in transition and suspended from the AU on accounts of military coups.
On 20 April 2021, the military in Chad stepped in to grab power after the death of then President Idriss Deby Itno from wounds he suffered during a visit to troops on the frontlines fighting against an armed rebel group, the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), which was reportedly marching towards Chad’s capital, N’Djamena. After suspending the Constitution and dissolving the Government and Parliament, the military spokesperson announced a decree establishing a Transitional Military Council (TMC) to lead the country and designating Mahamat Idriss Deby, the son of the deceased president, as head of the Council.
Under AU norms, such seizure of power by the army constitutes an unconstitutional change of government (UCG) banned and sanctioned by various AU legal instruments including, AU’s grand norm, the Constitutive Act of the AU. The various instruments banning UCG, including the Lome Declaration of 2000, the African Charter on Democracy Elections and Governance (ACDEG), and the Peace and Security Council (PSC) Protocol make it clear that any UCG is subject to automatic sanction and they don’t envisage exception. This has also been supported by the large body of AU practice in responding to UCG since the turn of the century.
The various instruments banning UCG, including the Lome Declaration of 2000, the African Charter on Democracy Elections and Governance (ACDEG), and the Peace and Security Council (PSC) Protocol make it clear that any UCG is subject to automatic sanction and they don’t envisage exception. This has also been supported by the large body of AU practice in responding to UCG since the turn of the century.
In an emergency session it convened on 22 April 2021, the AU, through its standing peace and security decision-making body, the PSC, failed to designate the event in Chad as an UCG. This was despite the fact the PSC, in the communique it adopted, expressed ‘grave concern over the establishment of the Transitional Military Council.’ Subsequently and after deploying a ‘fact-finding mission’ comprising of ‘the members of the PSC and the AU Commission’ (a composition contrary to established international practice and undercut the impartiality of the PSC), the PSC used the excuse of ‘the complexity of the current political and security situation in Chad’ for persisting with not designating the military power grab in Chad as a UCG.
While there were two earlier instances in which the PSC withheld the automatic application of the consequences of the designation of a situation as UCG, namely suspension from the AU (in November 2014 and April 2019 concerning Burkina Faso and Sudan, respectively), this is the first time that the PSC failed to characterize a military seizure of power as UCG. In doing so, the PSC dealt a major blow to its credibility, exposing the AU to legitimate charges of applying double standards and being inconsistent.
This is the first time that the PSC failed to characterize a military seizure of power as UCG.
The major casualty of PSC’s failure on Chad was the deterrence effect of the AU norm against coups. PSC’s failure to enforce the norm on Chad broke the practice of consistent enforcement and the attendant international diplomatic censure that gave the norm its force. In so doing, it sent a message to others watching the events in Chad that this was a season to stage a coup and get away with it. It is no wonder that some countries against whom the PSC enforced the anti-coup norm challenged the legitimacy of the AU’s action given its failure to uphold the same rule in neighbouring Chad. Indeed, countries such as Mali, which are facing complex security threats, share the same, if not more, challenges as Chad, and have a point in criticizing the AU for not giving them a pass as it did for Chad.
The major casualty of PSC’s failure on Chad was the deterrence effect of the AU norm against coups.
Despite letting Chad get away with its UCG, the AU in the PSC decision of 14 May 2021 expressly stated its expectation that the authors of the unconstitutional seizure of power in Chad will not auto-legitimize their hold to power by having themselves ‘voted’ during elections held for restoring constitutional order. In this respect, the PSC demanded ‘the Chairman and members of the TMC to abide with the avowed commitment, not to contest or take part in the upcoming national elections towards democratic rule.’ It even went further stating that ‘the Military will be held fully accountable in this respect.’ Subsequently, in the communique adopted at its 1016th meeting of August 2021, the PSC reiterated ‘that the members of the Military Transition Council shall not be eligible to be candidates for the elections at the end of the Transition.’ In the communique of its 1106th session held on 19 September 2022, the PSC was emphatic stating it ‘unequivocally reiterates that all members of the TMC shall be ineligible to participate as candidates for the elections at the end of the transition’ (emphasis in the original).
The PSC demanded ‘the Chairman and members of the TMC to abide with the avowed commitment, not to contest or take part in the upcoming national elections towards democratic rule.’ It even went further stating that ‘the Military will be held fully accountable in this respect.
It is thus clear from the various pronouncements that any attempt by the members of the TMC to run for election is set as a clear redline as the PSC makes. For this, the PSC draws legal authority from the AU Assembly Decision of 2010 (Assembly/AU/Dec.269(XIV) and the ACDEG.
A sign of a potential breach of the redline set for the junta in Chad emerged in October 2022. Following a national dialogue convened for charting a roadmap for the transition, the national dialogue forum announced on 1 October 2022 to extend the transition period by another 24 months in contravention of the timeframe established by the PSC. Even more gravely, the national dialogue forum further agreed to allow the head of the TMC and its members to participate in the elections at the end of the transition period. This pronouncement is not only a clear contravention of the decision of the PSC, emphatically reiterated several times, but also a clear rule in the extant AU norms including Assembly/AU/Dec.269(XIV) that bar coup-makers from participating in elections.
Instead of encouraging it to cooperate and abide by agreed commitments set in the various PSC decisions, these developments suggest that the junta in Chad took PSC’s initial failure to enforce the norm on UCG as a license for pursuing its ambition of legitimizing itself by ‘getting voted into power’. Yet, the reading of the various PSC communiques on Chad and the commitment that the head of the TMC made to a delegation of the AU suggest that the PSC would enforce the anti-coup norm against Chad in the event of the contravention of this redline. It thus came as no surprise that when the PSC convened a session on Chad on 11 November 2022, a key aspect of the agenda was whether to suspend the country given the new developments arising from the conclusions of the national dialogue. Indeed, the report that the AU Commission Chairperson submitted to the session presented the suspension of Chad from the AU as one of the possible courses of action available to the PSC.
It thus came as no surprise that when the PSC convened a session on Chad on 11 November 2022, a key aspect of the agenda was whether to suspend the country given the new developments arising from the conclusions of the national dialogue.
As documented in the November 2022 Monthly Digest on the PSC, after long hours of debate, the session was adjourned without a consensus among members of the PSC on the actions to be taken vis-à-vis the developments in Chad that are in clear breach of PSC’s decisions. While the provisions that ban UCG are clear and the existing PSC decisions of its 996th and 1121st sessions affirm the importance of upholding AU principles including the ineligibility of members of the TMC for elections that will be held for restoring constitutional order, the PSC was divided on the issue of the suspension of Chad.
In response to media reports accusing the Chairperson of the AU Commission of seeking to punish Chad in proposing suspension as one course of action in the report he presented, the spokesperson of the Chairperson stated on 12 November, apart from noting that no member of the PSC challenged the report, the statement rightly put blame for the mishandling of the situation in Chad on PSC member states stating that ‘Some felt that the authorities of the Transition should continue to be given exceptional treatment, others stated that they should be sanctioned by suspending the country via the rules invariably followed and implemented in matters of unconstitutional change of government. The PSC failed to reach an agreement on the matter during its meeting held on 11 November.’ (emphasis added) Despite holding a second meeting on 30 November to conclude the consideration of the developments in Chad that started on 11 November, the members of the PSC were not able to bridge their differences.
Apart from noting that no member of the PSC challenged the report, the statement rightly put blame for the mishandling of the situation in Chad on PSC member states stating that ‘Some felt that the authorities of the Transition should continue to be given exceptional treatment, others stated that they should be sanctioned by suspending the country via the rules invariably followed and implemented in matters of unconstitutional change of government. The PSC failed to reach an agreement on the matter during its meeting held on 11 November.’
This marks the second time that the PSC was unable to enforce on Chad a norm it applied against others. One of the arguments made at the time was that the PSC could only act when any member of the TMC stood for election.
In a Press Statement it issued, the PSC reiterated in general terms its previous decisions on Chad and reaffirmed its total rejection of UCG. Despite not stating them explicitly, the PSC, in reiterating its previous decisions (of which ineligibility of members of the TMC to elections is key), signalled that suspension. While avoided for now, suspension is still a possibility that the PSC may resort to. This is to happen when any member of the TMC decides to stand as a candidate for the elections expected to be organized at the end of the transitional period.
With elections set for 6 May 2024 and the declaration by Deby of his plan to run for the presidential elections, there is now no possibility of kicking the can down the road. The AU and its PSC are now faced with only one option- to end its ‘exceptional treatment of Chad’ and sanction it by suspending it from the AU, ‘by the rules invariably followed and implemented in matters of unconstitutional change of government’ and its own various decisions. Failing to do so would wipe out any of the PSC’s residual credibility on this matter and firmly suggest the continental body’s lack of conviction for its own decisions.
The AU and its PSC are now faced with only one option- to end its ‘exceptional treatment of Chad’ and sanction it by suspending it from the AU, ‘by the rules invariably followed and implemented in matters of unconstitutional change of government’ and its own various decisions. Failing to do so would wipe out any of the PSC’s residual credibility on this matter and firmly suggest the continental body’s lack of conviction for its own decisions.
One avenue that the PSC may opt for to maintain a semblance of credibility, if it is unable to suspend Chad, it is to decide that the AU should not deploy election observers to the upcoming elections in Chad.
Beyond the legitimacy crisis for the PSC, there are more reasons why the issue of how the PSC deals with this case matters for the AU and its policy on UCG. How the PSC handles this case is not without consequences for other cases. Indeed, if the PSC is unable to enforce the rule on non-eligibility concerning Chad, it would be the end of any future application of this rule as well. And most immediately, this would also mean that the AU would have no standing to apply this rule for stopping any of the military leaders in the six other countries (Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger and, Sudan) from becoming candidates for elections that will be held at the end of the transitional period in those countries.
If the PSC is unable to enforce the rule on non-eligibility concerning Chad, it would be the end of any future application of this rule as well. And most immediately, this would also mean that the AU would have no standing to apply this rule for stopping any of the military leaders in the six other countries (Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger and, Sudan) from becoming candidates for elections.
The content of this article does not represent the views of Amani Africa and reflect only the personal views of the authors who contribute to ‘Ideas Indaba’
Briefing on the situation in the Lake Chad Basin, MNJTF operations and Regional Stabilisation Strategy implementation
Briefing on the situation in the Lake Chad Basin, MNJTF operations and Regional Stabilisation Strategy implementation
Date | 7 April 2024
Tomorrow (8 April), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will receive a briefing on the situation in the Lake Chad Basin and the operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) in the region.
Following opening remarks by Ambassador Jainaba Jagne, Permanent Representative of the Republic of The Gambia to the AU and stand-in Chairperson of the PSC for April 2024, Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) is expected to make a statement. As per the usual practice, the Executive Secretary of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), Mamman Nuhu, is expected to brief the PSC.
The last time the PSC received a briefing on this issue was on 30 January 2024 when it renewed MNJTF’s mandate for one year until 1 February 2024. At that meeting, the PSC requested the AU Commission and the LBC to renew the provision of AU support to MNJTF for one year and to report regularly on the activities of the MNJTF. Tomorrow’s session could focus on the state of operation of the MNJTF, the security situation in the Lake Chad Basin and the implementation of the regional stabilization strategy.
On the security front, despite the progress registered by the MNJTF over the past years in degrading Boko Haram, the threat in the Lake Chad Basin from the two main Boko Haram splinter groups, Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), remains high. Boko Haram-related incidents have reportedly surged recently resulting in an increased number of civilian casualties. As a recent research report on the two Boko Haram splinter groups highlighted, the militant groups still command thousands of fighters and hold swathes of territory. In terms of territory, JAS controls much of Lake Chad and the Mandara mountains and ISWAP has strong control, particularly in rural areas of central Borno and eastern Yobe state in Nigeria.
The continued insecurity in the region has also exacerbated the humanitarian situation with more than 11.2 million people in need of humanitarian assistance, including over 5.5 million people facing acute food insecurity and some 758,000 children experiencing severe malnutrition, according to the UN. Additionally, most schools in the conflict-affected areas are dysfunctional due to the level of insecurity, thus denying children access to education. The region is also host to hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people, refugees, and returnees. This situation has been further compounded by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which has increased the number of displaced people crossing into Chad.
MNJTF has been playing an important role in fighting Boko Haram and stabilizing the region to allow the free movement of people and revive socio-economic activities. The joint task force has recently announced operational successes in neutralizing several Boko Haram elements and capturing many others. It also reportedly disrupted the group’s supply lines capturing a lot of weapons and ammunitions. Some MNJTF soldiers paid the ultimate sacrifice in this process, while others suffered injuries.
However, despite continuing military operations particularly by Nigeria under the MNJTF, there remain concerns about the level of effective coordinated operation by all members of the MNJTF. It was reported that the MNJTF operation planned for 2023, Lake Sanity 2, did not take place. Additionally, the MNJTF continues to face several other challenges. One of the challenges it faces relates to political instability facing some of the contributing countries such as Niger. Apart from the souring of relations with Nigeria after the July 2023 coup, Niger declared suspension of its participation in the MNJTF. According to the UN Secretary-General’s Report to the UNSC in January 2024, following Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sanctions on the Niger, ‘the de facto authorities in the Niger prohibited Multinational Joint Task Force troops based at Mallam Fatori, Nigeria, from crossing the border, and the Force Commander of the Task Force from visiting the Niger. They also temporarily suspended some reporting to the Task Force headquarters.’
The MNJTF also faces, similar to other operations on the continent, the lack of adequate, predictable, and sustainable funding. Therefore, the task force needs the continued support of the region and the international community. The lack of adequate resources to support recovered areas is a further challenge that complicates the situation. A recent UN assessment in the region concluded that ‘economic hardships continued to drive vulnerable young persons towards illegal activities, including joining extremist groups’ and that ‘insecurity had disrupted traditional transhumance routes, affecting local economies and exacerbating resource competition, food insecurity and displacement.’
In this connection, the implementation of the Regional Stabilization, Recovery, and Resilience Strategy for Areas Affected by Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin Region developed by the LCBC with the support of the AU is expected to be another focus of tomorrow’s PSC meeting. The LCBC has been benefiting from the support of the UN Development Programme (UNDP) which since 2019 has been facilitating the implementation of the strategy through its regional stabilization facility. Through the regional stabilization facility, more than 1.36 million people reportedly benefitted from stabilization interventions including more than 76,000 people who received vital livelihood support through grants, capacity-building opportunities, and cash-for-work initiatives, according to UNDP. Additionally, health and education services have resumed; infrastructure has been rehabilitated; access to energy has expanded; and more than 400,000 displaced persons have returned home. The first phase of the regional strategy’s implementation was concluded last year and the second phase has started this year.
Despite some of these positive developments, however, challenges abound underscoring the need to accelerate and adjust the implementation of the regional strategy which is considered the key to addressing the underlying causes and drivers of extremism, violence, and underdevelopment. It is to be recalled that following the fourth meeting of the steering committee for the Regional Stabilization, Recovery and Resilience Strategy for Areas Affected by Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin Region, in Abuja, Nigeria on 27 September 2023, the Regional Strategy was extended for a further period of one year. Additionally, the meeting directed the LCBC to consider an adjusted regional strategy for validation by the Council of Ministers in August 2024. It would thus be of interest for the PSC to learn about the progress being made in developing the adjusted regional strategy and how the adjustment would advance the effectiveness of the MNJTF.
At tomorrow’s meeting, the PSC may call for the mobilization of international assistance to support the implementation of the regional strategy to promote peace, security and development in the Lake Chad Basin. The Lake Chad Basin Governors’ Forum for Regional Cooperation on Stabilization, Peacebuilding, and Sustainable Development was held in N’Djamena from 5-7 July 2023 and highlighted the need to support socio-economic development and enhance community-based reintegration and transitional justice initiatives across the region. The Forum also expressed continued support for the Multinational Joint Task Force, while underscoring the need to adhere to human rights standards in security operations. Furthermore, they stressed the imperative of finding durable solutions for refugees and internally displaced persons in the region.
Another issue that would be of interest to PSC members in tomorrow’s session is the role of the MNJTF in providing support in such areas as the delivery of humanitarian assistance and the rebuilding of state authorities in areas recovered from terrorist groups. In terms of the role of the MNJTF beyond its kinetic activities, it would be of interest for PSC members to receive updates on its decision from its 1126 session. It is to be recalled that the PSC called for ‘restructuring of the MNJTF into a multidisciplinary force with robust police and civilian components that takes into consideration a comprehensive approach to addressing terrorism’.
Another important focus of tomorrow’s PSC meeting is the adverse effects of climate change in the Lack Chad Basin with worsening drought and receding water levels in Lake Chad. This has weakened the livelihood of the people of the region and exacerbated communal violence. The LCBC has been supporting regional countries in mitigating the impact of climate change, preserving biodiversity, and managing scarce water resources. Tomorrow’s PSC meeting will be held in advance of the third annual international forum on the development of the Lake Chad Basin which is scheduled to take place in N’Djamena from 28-30 May 2024. This forum is supported by the World Bank which funds the Lake Chad Region Recovery and Development Project (PROLAC). The forum seeks to promote and strengthen regional cooperation between the Lake Chad Basin countries in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change, promoting socio-economic development, and fostering regional integration. Several topics are expected to be discussed during the upcoming forum, including how to enhance community resilience and strengthen inclusive management of natural resources.
The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communiqué. The PSC is expected to express concern over the continued threat posed by Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin region. While commending the MNJTF for its successful operations against the terrorist group, the PSC may underscore the need for reinforcing the close coordination and active participation of all the participating countries of the MNJTF. With respect to the conduct of military operations by the MNJTF, the PSC may call for enhanced compliance with human rights and IHL rules to avoid civilian casualties that undermine the effectiveness of such operations. The PSC may welcome steps taken by ECOWAS and Nigeria to ameliorate tension with countries affected by coups and may in this respect call on Niger to continue its collaboration and active participation in the MNJTF to avoid reversal of gains achieved through the MNJTF. It may emphasize the critical role of the Regional Strategy for the Stabilization, Recovery and Resilience for supporting affecting communities and restoring state authority in newly recovered areas. The PSC may also recommend a summit of the MNJTF countries for reinvigorating the MNJTF and the implementation of the Stabilization Strategy. The PSC also may call for ensuring comprehensive plans are put in place for the socio-economic revival of affected areas including within the framework of the Stabilization Strategy. The PSC may also welcome the upcoming convening of the third annual international forum on the development of the Lake Chad Basin. Having regard to the adverse impacts of climate change in the region, including aggravating insecurity and instability, the PSC may underscore the importance of investing in measures for mitigating the impacts of climate change including through the provision of humanitarian and adaptation support for affected communities.
Monthly Digest on The African Union Peace And Security Council - February 2024
Monthly Digest on The African Union Peace And Security Council - February 2024
Date | February 2024
In February, under the chairship of The Kingdom of Morocco, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) had a scheduled program of work consisting of twelve sessions and an informal meeting. After multiple revisions of the programme, only five sessions were convened.
Open Session on Hate Crimes and Fighting Genocide Ideology in Africa
Open Session on Hate Crimes and Fighting Genocide Ideology in Africa
Date | 3 April 2024
Tomorrow (4 April), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1206th session on the theme prevention of hate crimes and fighting genocide ideology in Africa.
Following opening remarks by Ambassador Jainaba Jagne, Permanent Representative of the Republic of The Gambia to the AU and stand-in Chairperson of the PSC for April 2024, Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) is expected to make a statement. Presentations will also be delivered by the Representative of the Republic of Rwanda; Special Adviser of the UN Secretary-General on the Prevention of Genocide; Representative of the European Union (EU); and Representatives of Regional Economic Communities (RECs).
Tomorrow’s session is being convened in line with a PSC decision adopted at its 678th session held on 11 April 2017 in which it decided to convene annually, in April, a meeting on prevention of the ideology of hate, Genocide and hate crimes in Africa. The meeting also forms part of the yearly remembrance of the 1994 genocide which will be observed on 7 April under the theme Remember-Unite-Renew, in accordance to AU Assembly Decision Assembly/AU/Dec.695 of 2 July 2018.
This year marks 30 years since Africa witnessed its most shocking violence since the end of colonialism, during the genocide against the Tutsi. For the PSC and the AU in general, one of the issues that this 30-year commemoration raises is how to safeguard the memory of this tragic catastrophe perpetrated at extraordinary scale and brutality for avoiding its recurrence anywhere in the continent as promised in Article 4(h) of the Constitutive Act of the AU. It is only through recognizing the graveness of the brutal mass killing, maiming, rape and psychological harm that victims and survivors including women and children endured during the genocide and keeping the memory alive that the region and the continent as a whole can avoid falling back into a situation where the event ‘continues to be overlooked as a minor African hiccup’, in the words of Salim Ahmed Salim’s report on the establishment of an International Panel of Eminent Personalities to Investigate the Genocide in Rwanda and the Surrounding Events. Most significantly, for the AU this issue of memory of what happened and its meaning is inseparable from the raison d’etre for its founding, while it may be debatable if the AU has lived up to the promise encapsulated in Article 4(h) considering events in some conflict settings in recent years.
Separate but related concern for the AU and tomorrow’s session is also the lessons from this experience and its consequences. As the first elected president of democratic South Africa, President Nelson Mandela, put it in his maiden address to the June 1994 Organization of African Unity (OAU) summit in Tunis while the genocide was still unfolding, ‘Rwanda stands out as a stern and severe rebuke to all of us for having failed to address Africa’s security problems. As a result of that, a terrible slaughter of the innocent has taken place and is taking place in front of our very eyes.’ The AU stands a chance of not repeating the failure of the OAU that Mandela spoke of only by continuing to draw the necessary lessons from this manmade disaster and adopt the relevant measures of vigilance in all conditions of conflicts and crises. In this respect, it is of paramount significance that the AU reinvigorates its work on addressing hate speech and supporting actions against the denial or revisionism of the genocide against the Tutsi as stipulated in various PSC decisions. Similarly, it is critical to enhance AU’s work in following up on PSC’s decision for reinvigorating the early warning mechanism and including an analysis on indicators of hate crime and risk factors for them to escalate to genocide pursuant to the decision of the 836th session of the PSC. In this respect, it is worth recalling that under Article 7(1)(a) the PSC is mandated to ‘anticipate and prevent … policies that may lead to genocide and crimes against humanity.’
Rwanda stands out as a stern and severe rebuke to all of us for having failed to address Africa’s security problems. As a result of that, a terrible slaughter of the innocent has taken place and is taking place in front of our very eyes.
Nelson Mandela June 1994 OAU Summit
This 30th commemoration of the 1994 genocide should also serve as an occasion for the PSC and the wider AU to interrogate why and how some of the issues identified in the report of the OAU Panel of Eminent Personalities remain unresolved and continue to fester to this day. This issue currently has particular resonance in respect to the conflict in Eastern DRC. While the genocide ended in July 1994, as the report of the OAU Panel of Eminent Personalities pointed out, its consequences continued to reverberate in the Great Lakes Region at the time the Panel finalized its report and since. According to the report, ‘the failure to disarm the genocidaires and the re-emergence of Mobutu’ (‘as a central actor in the tragedy’ involving the genocidaires to whom he gave diplomatic protection and supply of arms) ‘combined to trigger a series of stunning developments, most notably two successive wars centred on Zaire/Congo.’ While Mobutu’s Zaire/Congo and contemporary DRC are not the same, some of the issues that led to the two successive wars that the Panel cited including the continued presence of the genocidaires notably the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and ethnic tensions in Eastern DRC seem to be apparently at play in the current conflict in Eastern DRC.
Tomorrow’s session can also serve for finding ways of implementing some of the outstanding decisions of the PSC on the subject. The last PSC session on this theme was its 1147th session held on 6 April 2023. As can be noted from the outcome of this and previous sessions, some of PSC’s decisions have been recurrent. These include PSC’s request to the AU Commission to develop a shared working definition of what constitutes ‘hate speech’ and ‘hate crimes’, in order to enable member states to enact necessary legislation to combat these scourges. Another decision is the request to the Chairperson of the AU Commission to expedite the appointment of an AU Special Envoy on the Prevention of Hate Crimes and the Crime of Genocide. There has been also the call by the PSC for the need to consider the Rabat Action Plan as the basis for establishing an Annual African Forum, in coordination with the AU Commission, on the prevention of ideology of hate, hate crimes and genocide, which will be an annual event that will bring together all concerned actors within the framework of PSC meetings to address the scourge and for fighting the ideology of hate, hate crimes and genocide. In addition, the PSC also requested the AU Commission to undertake a review of the status of implementation of the recommendations contained in the Report of the OAU International Panel of Eminent Personalities on the 1994 Rwanda Genocide and the Surrounding Events by the Panel of the Wise and called for the establishment of an African Centre for the Study of Genocide (1088th session).
Amani Africa recommended that, since 2024 marks the 30th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide, it would be valuable for the PSC to organize a comprehensive stock taking exercise at the continental level, aimed at reaffirming their commitment to the principle of ‘never again,’ as outlined in Article 4 (h) of the AU Constitutive Act. 2024 also marks the 20th anniversary of the operationalization of the PSC. This commemoration, which will be celebrated in May 2024, will be an opportunity for the PSC to showcase its accomplishments over the past two decades in contributing to sustainable peace including through its efforts to address hate crimes as well as learning from historical events, in particular the Rwanda genocide, and efforts in ensuring prevention of such atrocities from recurring.
The expected outcome of the session is a communique. As in the previous sessions, PSC may express its concern over the persistent trend of the ideologies of hate, genocide and hate crimes in Africa and may in this light reaffirm the importance of using the annual commemoration as useful avenue for articulating practical actions for addressing the challenges posed by hate speech and misinformation and disinformation on the basis of ethnic identity, particularly in fragile and conflict settings. It may also commend the progress made particularly at the national level in Rwanda to overcome the consequences of the genocide against the Tutsi. The PSC is likely to call upon member states who have not yet done so, to sign, ratify and/or accede to the relevant international legal instruments particularly the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and to adopt formal and informal education policies to foster social cohesion free from ethnic, regional, national and religious biases, while emphasizing human rights protection. PSC may urge member states to intensify their collaboration with the RECs and Regional Mechanisms (RMs) in order to enhance their efforts on prevention strategies including those that holistically tackle the underlying causes and catalysts of violent conflicts. PSC may call for the need for dealing with the regional consequences of the genocide including through enhancing collective action for resolving the conflict in Eastern DRC. Within the framework of the 30-year anniversary, the PSC may also decide that a stocktaking exercise is undertaken as part of the 20 years anniversary of the operationalization and official launch of the PSC including for facilitating implementation of the decisions of its previous sessions including the designation of a special envoy on the prevention of genocide.
Analytical briefing on the Strategic Planning for Post-ATMIS Somalia
Analytical briefing on the Strategic Planning for Post-ATMIS Somalia
Date | 2 April 2024
Tomorrow (03 April), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is scheduled to have a closed session dedicated to analytical briefing on the strategic planning for post-AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) Somalia.
Following opening remarks by the Permanent Representative of The Gambia and PSC Chairperson for April, Jainaba Jagne, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to deliver a statement. It is expected that the AU Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) will provide the briefing to the PSC.
The last time the PSC held a session on Somalia/ATMIS on 8 March in an informal consultation, the focus of the session was on plans and preparations towards a post-ATMIS engagement. This built on the 1173rd session that requested the Commission to ‘work out a viable ATMIS exit strategy, which should include proposals on AU’s continued engagement with and support to Somalia post 31 December 2024.’
Tomorrow’s briefing comes against the backdrop of Somalia’s submission of its proposal on the strategic planning for post-ATMIS mission, pursuant to UN Security Council resolution 2710 (2023). The resolution requested the Government of Somalia to present a proposal for post-ATMIS security arrangements to the Security Council by 31 March 2024. As a follow-up to this request, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has developed Strategic Planning for Post-ATMIS Proposal, defining the mandate, scope, size, and composition of the post-ATMIS mission in support of Somali state building priorities. It is also to be recalled that in an informal consultation held on 27 March 2024 upon the request of the Government of Somalia, the PSC was briefed by representative of the Government on Somalia’s on the proposal for post-ATMIS security arrangements. After the briefing from Somalia, member states requested that the PAPS Department provides analytical briefing offering insights on the proposal for the post-ATMIS mission.
Tomorrow’s analytical briefing draws on the mission that the AU PAPS undertook to Somalia in February and the proposal that the Government of Somalia presented on strategic planning for post-ATMIS. During the meeting of the AU high-level delegation led by Alhadji Sarjoh Bah, PAPS’ Director for Conflict Management, and Somalia’s authorities at the end of January and early February 2024, Bah noted that the strength, mandate, posture, composition and the overall architecture that will replace ATMIS will be based on ‘a very comprehensive security assessment that focuses on the threats and other variables’. Subsequently, on 13 February, the AU also convened the Core Security Partners Group high-level consultative meeting in Addis Ababa, which brought together key partners, to explore avenues for supporting ‘Somali-led and owned security arrangements post-ATMIS’.
According to the document on Strategic Planning for Post-ATMIS that the FGS submitted, the mandate of the post-ATMIS mission will be of limited scope. It specifically envisages that focus of the mission will be ‘securing identified strategic population centers, key infrastructures in Mogadishu and the FMS capitals (e.g. airports, sea ports); providing air support to the SSF, and permitting SNAF elements to conduct offensive operations.’ Accordingly, one of the request of the FGS proposal is for ‘an AU-led, UN-authorized multilateral mission,’ which is limited in size, scope and timeframe. The mission is intended to assist Somalia in stabilizing and securing the country; enabling state building priorities; and ensuring a coherent and orderly transfer of security responsibilities to the Somali authorities and increasingly capable security forces.
With respect to the size of the mission, the document states that the FGS does not expect the size of the mission to exceed 10,000. This is despite stating that ‘joint strategic assessment will determine the required size of mission based on capability gaps identified by the FGS.’ These personnel are projected to deploy across 14 Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) within four sectors—Sector 1 (Mogadishu City and Banadir Region and Lower Shabelle), Sector 2 (Lower and Middle Juba and Gedo), Sector 3 (Bay and Bakool), and Sector 4 (Middle Shabelle, Hiraan and Galgaduud regions). While no specific timeframe is outlined for the new mission, the Proposal highlights that it should align with the timeframe specified in the Somali Security Development Plan (SSDP), which anticipates achieving sovereign capability for security responsibilities within three to five years.
In considering the proposal from FGS, of interest for PSC members are the composition of the post-ATMIS mission, and whether and how elements of ATMIS would constitute part of this new mission to avoid vacuum that may arise due to complete lack of continuity. In clarifying these issues, as well as how the mission will be organized and how it interfaces with FGS and its security forces, the request Somalia made during the Somalia security conference last December and the lessons from AMISOM and ATMIS provide useful basis. Of not any less significance is the consideration to the contribution that AMISOM and ATMIS troops made and the role that ATMIS troop and police contributing countries will play regarding the post-ATMIS AU-led mission. Somalia’s Proposal does not provide details on this issue. It is anticipated that some contingents currently operating in ATMIS will form the ‘Core Nucleus’ of the new mission to ensure continuity.
There is recognition that whatever form that the post-ATMIS mission takes is expected not only to build on the progress in the drawdown and exit processes of ATMIS but also the overall peace and security conditions in Somalia and institutional readiness of Somalia Security Forces (SSF). In this respect it is worth recalling that even with respect to phase 3 drawdown of ATMIS, UN Security Council Resolution 2710 urged ‘ATMIS and its Troop- and Police-Contributing Countries to work closely with the FGS and Somalia’s Federal Member States (FMS) to ensure that the Phase 3 drawdown is gradual and conducted in line with Somalia’s strategic needs, including progress with force generation, as well as taking into account the situation in Somalia and the importance of maintaining security and stability.’ In the light of this, it is of paramount importance that the determination of the size and composition of the post-ATMIS mission is determined on the basis of the strategic assessment which should provide assessment of the threat that Al Shabaab poses, lessons from phase 3 drawdown expected to lead to the withdrawal of 4000 troops by 30 June 2024, the progress in force generation and in consolidation of national reconciliation and political cohesion between FGS and Federal Member States. The nature of continuing security and institutional challenges that Somalia faces when ATMIS completes exit should not be underestimated. Similarly, the enormity of the responsibility should be fully appreciated.
The other issue worthy of PSC’s attention in tomorrow’s session is the financing dimension. This is a particularly significant issue considering the funding challenges that ATMIS experienced. During the 19 February UN Security Council briefing on Somalia, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia, Catriona Laing, alluded to the use of UN assessed contribution within the framework of resolution 2719 (2023) on the financing of the AU-led peace support operations as one of the potential funding modalities. Indeed, this presents the first test for the practical application of resolution 2719. The proposal from the FGS is ‘a UN mandated logistical support to the new mission, and the Somali Security Forces (SSF) in joined (sic) and coordinated operations with the new AU-led mission.’ The Strategic Planning for post-ATMIS Proposal emphasizes the imperative of securing reliable and sustainable funding. Two funding modalities are proposed to address this critical issue. The first modality involves accessing the UN assessed contributions within the framework of the landmark UN Security Council resolution 2719 (2023). This resolution determined that AU-led PSOs that are authorized by the Security Council will have access to funding from the UN assessed contributions, on a case-by-case basis. The second modality entails considering other ‘complementary options’, including voluntary contributions from a broader range of donors with ‘multiyear commitments’, in line with the principle of burden-sharing among the various stakeholders.
It remains unclear whether there will be a formal outcome document following tomorrow’s session. However, while welcoming Somalia’s Strategic Planning for post-ATMIS Proposal, PSC may emphasize the need for enhanced engagement between the AU Commission and the FGS, along with other partners to ensure mutual understanding on the key aspects of the proposed mission and to address any outstanding issues. In this respect, the PSC may encourage the AU Commission and Somalia to establish a joint monitoring, assessment, consultation and planning mechanism that will, among others, help clarify critical questions relevant to the development of the concept of operations (CONOPs) for the Post-ATMIS mission. PSC may also specify a timeframe for the next briefing to receive updates on progress made toward the development of the CONOPs for the new mission and preparations for the phase 3 ATMIS troops drawdown.
Provisional Program of Work for the Month of April 2024
Provisional Program of Work for the Month of April 2024*
Date | April 2024
The Gambia will serve as the stand-in-chairperson of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) for the month of April 2024. According to the rules on rotation of the monthly chairperson of the PSC in alphabetical order (Article 8(6) of PSC Protocol & Rule 23 of the PSC Rules of Procedure), Nigeria was set to be the chairperson for April. However, due to the absence of ambassadorial representation, the typical alphabetical rotation could not be applied this month. Consequently, The Gambia have stepped in as the stand-in-chairperson, as provided under Paragraph 67 of the Manual on Working Methods of the Council.
The PSC’s Provisional Programme of Work includes five substantive sessions and a ‘field visit’ to Abuja for the Abuja High- Level Meeting on Counterterrorism meeting. Two of the sessions will address region-specific issues, while the remaining three will cover thematic topics. All sessions are scheduled to be held at ambassadorial level.
The first session of the month scheduled to take place on 4 April will focus on hate crimes and fighting genocide ideology in Africa. The session also takes place within the framework of the 30th commemoration of the Genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda. While the session is in line with PSC’s 678th meeting which decided to dedicate an open session to the theme every year in April, the commemoration is in accordance with the AU Assembly Decision [Assembly/ AU / Dec.695] of 2 July 2018 as well as the Communique of the PSC adopted at its 761st session. The forthcoming session, on ‘prevention of the ideology of hate, genocide and hate crimes’ that has become a standing agenda item of the PSC may take stock of Rwanda’s transitional justice and post-conflict reconstruction journey and discuss the growing relevance of the lessons gleaned from the genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda. In the light of various large scale atrocities experienced in various conflict settings and the continuing violations to which civilians are subjected in various conflicts such as Sudan, the session is expected to underscore the urgency of maintaining vigilance in implementing the lessons from that unprecedented tragedy as institutionalized in the AU norms and peace and security architecture. It is also anticipated that the session will serve as an occasion for following up on some of the previous decisions of the PSC on this theme including mots notably the call for the appointment of a special envoy on the prevention of genocide in Africa.
The second session of the month and the first region-specific session to be held on 8 April will be dedicated for the briefing on the situation in the Lake Chad Basin with regards to the operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) operations. The session is in accordance with the PSC ‘s request for the Commission in coordination with the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) Secretariat, to report to Council regularly on the activities of the MNJTF, in line with the relevant provisions contained in the Communique PSC/AHG/ COMM.2(CDLXXXIV) of 29 January 2015. The last time this issue was discussed was during the PSC’s 1197th session held on 30 January 2024. It is recalled that the session decided to renew MNJTF’s mandate for one-year period, effective from 1 February 2024. It is also anticipated that the PSC will be briefed on the request it made during its previous session to the AU Commission and the LCBC to renew the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and Support Implementation Agreement (SIA) between AU, LCBC and MNJTF Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs). Furthermore, the session is also anticipated to assess the implementation of the Regional Strategy for the Stabilization, Recovery and Resilience of the Boko Haram-affected Areas of the Lake Chad Basin Region (RSS) that was adopted in August 2018 by the LCBC and later endorsed by the PSC. The session is further expected to address Climate Change impacts in the region.
On the same day, the PSC will be briefed on the preparations for the high-level African Counter Terrorism Meeting in Abuja, scheduled for 22-23 April 2024. As part of these arrangements, the PSC has scheduled to participate in the event on 22 – 25 April. The meeting will take place under the theme ‘Strengthening Regional Cooperation and Institution Building to Address the Evolving Threat of Terrorism in Africa’. During this briefing, it is anticipated that PSC members will receive detailed information regarding the strategic objectives of the meeting, the agendas to be covered and the key stakeholders involved. The briefing may also delve into strategies to boost regional cooperation against the rising threat of terrorism, which could inform discussions of the high-level meeting. In a commendable development that should be replicated and regularized, as part of the ‘field mission’, the PSC is also expected to hold consultation with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Mediation and Security Council.
On 16 April, the PSC will hold its fourth session of the month, focusing on ‘Unblocking the obstacles to the effective Continental Early Warning System (CEWS)’. This session aligns with the PSC’s decision from its 1014th session held on 26 July 2021, which called for quarterly briefings on emerging threats to peace and security in Africa. This request was directed towards the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services (CISSA), the African Center for the Study and Research on Terrorism (ACSRT) and the African Union Mechanism for Police Cooperation (AFRIPOL). These entities are expected to provide updates on emerging trends affecting the continent’s peace and security landscape. On a particular note, the briefing is also expected to address the persisting issues of terrorism, with focus on the Sahel region, in accordance with the communique adopted by the PSC during its 1170th session on 22 August 2023.
The PSC will convene its next session on 18 April to explore the security conditions in the Gulf of Guinea and devise the required response to combat maritime insecurity and piracy. The council last addressed this issue during its 1174th session on September 18, 2023. During the session, recognizing a decade of the Yaoundé Code of Conduct’s implementation, the PSC proposed its expansion to encompass the entire Atlantic coast. As such, the upcoming session will provide an opportunity for the PSC to review updated assessments of the Code’s strategies and provisions. The session may receive an update on the progresses towards the operationalizing the Yaoundé Architecture’s structure and the assessment as to whether it is adequately equipped to respond to emerging threats and realities.
The initial programme of work for the PSC is expected to expand with the addition of two more sessions. One of these sessions is expected to focus on the situation in Somalia/ATMIS, a topic last discussed in an informal consultation on 27 March 2024 upon the request of the Government of Somalia. This meeting was also in response to the Council’s request during its 1173rd session in September 2023, to develop a feasible exit strategy for ATMIS, which would include proposals for the AU’s sustained support to Somalia beyond December 31, 2024. During the informal consultations, the PSC received updates on the completion of phase 2 drawdown, preparations for phase 3 and ongoing discussions regarding post-ATMIS security arrangements. Furthermore, it is recalled that, at the Somalia security conference held on 12 December 2023, in New York, Somalia requested a new, limited multilateral mission post-ATMIS, aiming to protect strategic population centers and crucial infrastructure in Mogadishu and Federal Member State. As previously anticipated in our insight for the session on 8 March, detailed information on the proposed mission was expected and the 27 March informal briefing to the PSC provided some clarity on Somalia’s perspective. Furthermore, Somalia’s active involvement in ATMIS’s drawdown and exit and in planning the post-ATMIS mission, were also part of discussion points. However, during the 8 March session the PSC members did not reach a definitive agreement on certain issues. Both the 27 March informal session and the session proposed for this month are based on UN Security Council Resolution 2710. It is recalled that the UNSC, under resolution 2710, requested the FGS and the AU to conduct a joint technical assessment by 31 March 2024 to evaluate phase 2 drawdown, and provide an update by 30 April on their preparations for phase 3 drawdown. Therefore, the upcoming session is expected to continue these discussions, with the goal of reaching consensus on the unresolved matters.
The other session that is expected to be included in the Council’s programme is the situation in Sudan. It is anticipated that the session will review the developments in the war that will mark one year on 15 April since its outbreak in April 2023. The war has continued to rage on with devastating consequences to civilians with nearly 14,000 fatalities, 8.1 million displaced and 24.8 million people in need of humanitarian assistance, of which significant number facing imminent famine. In its 1185th session convened back in November 2023, the PSC made the decision to establish ‘a High-Level Ad Hoc Panel on Sudan.’ This panel is tasked with collaborating with all Sudanese stakeholders to facilitate a civilian-led political transition. Accordingly, on 3 February 2024, the Chairperson of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, announced the formation of this high-level panel. The panel, chaired by Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the AU High Representative for Silencing the Guns, includes Dr. Specioza Wandira-Kazibwe, the former Vice President of Uganda, and Ambassador Fransisco Madeira, the former Special Representative of the Chairperson to Somalia and former Head of ATMIS. Over the past two months, the panel undertook consultation tours which took the members of the Panel to Port Sudan and Cairo. The Panel has engaged with various stakeholders, including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the Expanded Mechanism for the Resolution of Sudan’s crisis, and most recently, the Foreign Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Therefore, the PSC is expected to receive an updated briefing from the high-level panel on its consultations and plans for implementing the AU Roadmap for the Resolution of the Crisis in Sudan.
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*Post-script: The analytical briefing on strategic planning for Post-ATMIS in Somalia, scheduled for April, is now confirmed to occur on 3 April, following the flag ceremony for the newly elected members of the PSC, where they will install their flags at the PSC Chamber. The briefing will be held in a closed session, which will also include a separate session for the engagement between the PSC and the Chairperson of the AU Commission.
Amani Africa wishes to express its gratitude to the Australian Embassy in Ethiopia for the support in the production of this Insight on the Monthly Programme of Work of the AU Peace and Security Council
