Ministerial Meeting on Climate Change, Peace and Security Nexus: Building Resilience and Adaptation for Food Security in African Island States Towards COP27
Ministerial Meeting on Climate Change, Peace and Security Nexus: Building Resilience and Adaptation for Food Security in African Island States Towards COP27
Date | 18 October 2022
Tomorrow (18 October) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council is scheduled to hold its 1114th session at the ministerial level under the theme ‘Climate Change, Peace and Security Nexus: Building Resilience and Adaptation for Food Security in African Island States Towards COP27’.
Following the opening remark by the minister of Foreign Affairs, African Cooperation and Moroccan Expatriates of the Kingdom of Morocco and Chairperson of the PSC for October Nasser Bourita, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye is expected to make a statement. Josefa Sacko, the Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment (ARBE) of the AU Commission is scheduled to make a presentation on the theme of the session. Omar Gad, Permanent Representative of Egypt and incoming chair of COP27 is also expected to deliver a statement. The representatives of the World Food Program (WFP), Climate Change Competence Center and Adaptation of African Agriculture are also expected to brief the PSC. Seychelles as Chair of the African Islands Climate Commission is scheduled to make a statement.
Climate change and security is one of PSC’s standing thematic agenda items that is increasingly receiving attention from highest level of decision makers. Since 2016, PSC has addressed the nexus between climate change and security in Africa from various perspectives through the different sessions dedicated to the theme. In 2021 alone three sessions were held on the theme including two at heads of state and government level. More specifically the unique vulnerability experienced by small island states has been the focus of the PSC’s 877th session. The meeting underscored the severity of climate change on island states and expressed its concern by noting how the effects of climate change are ‘threatening their survival and impacting on biodiversity, food security and the livelihoods of communities’ and further called for urgent action for the protection of livelihoods and biodiversity.
African island states and in most cases small island states are inherently vulnerable due to their size and remoteness from global interconnected economic system. These states are also highly vulnerable given their exposure to environmental challenges and limited resource base. Despite their negligible contribution to greenhouse gas emissions they have been disproportionately affected by the devastating effects of climate change. Availability of food and water resources remain critical challenges to these states. Food insecurity is a result of multiple factors. In the majority of these states the agricultural sector is characterized by subsistence production. Smallholder farmers constitute the majority producers in the sector. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report more than 80% of farmers hold less than 2 ha in Guinea-Bissau and 90% hold less than 1 ha in Cabo Verde. The sector also highly depends on rainfall and any decrease in precipitation due to climate change exposes communities to drought and the reduction of agricultural production. The use of fertilizers is also low in many of these states. In addition to the agriculture sector island states are also highly dependent on their oceanic and fishery resources for food security and livelihoods and for economic development.
Food insecurity has deteriorated at an alarming rate across Africa threatening human security. The AU, FAO and the UN Economic Commission for Africa have reported that the hunger situation on the continent witnessed the most deterioration during 2019 and 2020. According to the three entities, 281.6 million Africans are undernourished in 2020. More reports are indicating that these trends will likely worsen in subsequent years (read more in Amani Africa’s ‘Insights’ on Food Security and Conflict in Africa).
In addition to the structural and economic difficulties of island states which make them susceptible to effects of climate change, their condition is further exacerbated by extreme weather events such as cyclones and slow onset processes like sea level rise. This vulnerability is expected to worsen in the coming decades. As per United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization’s report in 2022, Africa’s island states and coastal states will carry a heavy brunt of rising sea level and it will cost them an estimated $50 billion in damages by 2050. Moreover, extreme weather events and island states remain highly susceptible to external shocks. The combined effects of climate change, COVID19 and the global crisis that followed the war in Ukraine had severe effects that further exacerbated pre-existing vulnerabilities. These multiple crises have had direct impact on the economies of these countries including due to the adverse effects on the tourism sector, agricultural sector, infrastructure and energy.
The cost of adaptation remains high and these states face difficulties in accessing climate financing. According to United Nations Environmental Protection (UNEP) data the annual adaptation cost for developing nations is estimated at USD 70 billion. The numbers are expected to rise to up to USD 140-300 billion in 2030 and USD 280-500 billion in 2050. Developed nations are far from meeting their commitments of USD100 billion per year, to finance climate change actions at national, regional and international levels.
Building resilience is fundamental for communities and countries to respond to shocks without leading to crisis or conflict. However, security and environmental crises continue to erode the resilience of communities. Drought, water shortage, food insecurity, and desertification that are caused or aggravated by climate change, are risk multipliers for conflict. Moreover, other external and global factors also contribute to this fragility. Hence, tomorrow’s session may reflect on policy responses that support island states in scaling up their efforts towards a more resilient and climate-smart agriculture that can respond to internal and external difficulties.
An important aspect to consider during tomorrow’s session is the relationship between climate change and security and how these interplay in the context of island states. Although there is an increasing recognition of the nexus between climate and security, it is an area that is yet to be properly studied and analyzed. The relationship is complex and as also highlighted in the concept note there is no direct causal link between climate change and security. Nonetheless, the compounded effects of declining security and environment are being witnessed in various parts of the continent. In recognition of the link between the two components, the 6th IPCC Report on Climate Change stressed the importance of building synergies between climate adaptation and peacebuilding to address climate-related fragility and conflict risks more comprehensively. Indeed, some of the island states in Africa in addition to climate change related challenges, are also experiencing insecurities and fragile political processes, as has been the case in Comoros. Climate change has the effect of accentuating these existing vulnerabilities and insecurities.
As highlighted in the concept note, one of the key developments that is expected to take place in tomorrow’s session is the presentation by the AUC of the ‘key messages’ on the nexus between climate change, peace and security within the context of the implementation of the African Peace and Security Architecture to facilitate the development of a Common African Position on climate change, peace and security nexus. This builds from previous PSC decisions and it is also a critical exercise to integrate peace and security matters within COP27 which have been absent in previous COPs.
From the perspective of the upcoming COP27 presidency, the representative from Egypt is expected to highlight the COP priorities and the various initiatives. The representative may also highlight the centrality of adaptation, losses and damages as priorities in the COP and for the continent. These priorities are particularly critical for island states. The absence of a loss and damage fund and the sensitivity around the issue, which was also witnessed in COP26 negotiations, continues to affect developing nations ability to access financing for recovery, reconstruction and to assist communities whose home and livelihood have been destroyed. The representative may also use the opportunity to remind participants and highlight the importance for Africa to clearly articulate its position and interest and ensure that African states advance a collective goal in addressing a global challenge that is disproportionately affecting the continent.
The expected outcome is a communique. Council may underscore the unique vulnerabilities of African island states to climate change and the consequences related to food insecurity. The Council may express its concern over the devastating effects of climate change induced natural disasters and the consequent loss and damage. The PSC may welcome the key messages presented by the AUC as an important step in forming a common position and informing the COP27 deliberations on climate and security matters. The PSC may commend Egypt for the work it has undertaken in preparation of COP27. The Council may call for the harmonization of policies and action at all levels between the AU, member states and Regional Economic Communities in early warning and early action. The PSC may also call for the need for investing in preparedness and capacity for effective response. Additionally, the PSC may call for a strengthened cooperation between the Africa Multi-hazard Early Warning System and Early Action (AMHEWAS) Situation Room and the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) Situation Room. The Council may reiterate its previous call for countries most responsible for climate change to honor their pledge and deliver on the USD100 billion for annual climate financing to developing nations. It may also highlight the imperative for countries with the most responsibility for greenhouse emissions to take the urgent measures for meeting the target set for limiting emissions. With respect to island states and countries whose economies are battered by the impacts of climate change, it may welcome the plan for including loss and damage in to the COP27 agenda and call for the establishment of a dedicated mechanism for supporting loss and damage.
Annual Informal Joint Seminar and Annual Joint Consultative Meeting between the Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council
Annual Informal Joint Seminar and Annual Joint Consultative Meeting between the Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council
Date | 13 October 2022
Members of the AUPSC will be travelling to New York this week to take part in the 16th joint annual consultative meeting between the Security Council and the AUPSC which will be held on 14 October 2022. The annual meeting rotates between Addis Ababa and New York, and this year New York will be hosting the meeting in-person. Because of the COVID situation, the meeting was held via video teleconference for the last two years.
7th Informal Seminar
The annual consultative meeting between the two Councils will be preceded by the seventh informal joint seminar which will be held on 13 October 2022. The joint seminar will allow the two Councils to reflect on how they can enhance cooperation in peacebuilding and sustaining peace in Africa. One of the items for discussion during the informal session is the perennial issue of working methods. The issue of the modalities for implementing their decision to undertake joint field missions, follow up on the conclusions of the consultative meeting and the status of the joint communique are among the various working methods issues. The informal seminar will also discuss on developing an African common agenda between the two Councils. Other issues of common interest expected to receive attention include strengthening AU and UN peace support operations and promotion of peacebuilding in Africa.
Ahead of the annual meeting, the Security Council is also expected to hold its annual debate on cooperation between the United Nations and regional and sub-regional organizations, focusing on the partnership with the African Union on 11 October 2022. The UN Secretary-General’s annual report on “Strengthening the partnership between the UN and the AU on issues of peace and security in Africa, including on the work of the UN Office to the AU (UNOAU)”, which was published on 25 August, will be the basis for discussion at the debate. In addition, the Gabon Security Council Presidency wants to highlight the 20th anniversary of the African Union during the meeting and facilitate a discussion on how to strengthen the partnership between the UN and the AU in support of ‘a constructive multilateral world’. Lately, there has been renewed momentum in the discussion on UN Security Council reform in New York. Therefore, Gabon intends to capitalize on this and foster discussion on this issue with a view to advancing Africa’s longstanding position as encapsulated in the Ezilwini consensus.
16th Annual Consultative Meeting
The consultative meeting will be held the following day on 14 October. After consultations through exchange of letters, the two Councils have agreed on the agenda items for their annual consultative meeting. Accordingly, they are expected to discuss the situations in West Africa and the Sahel and in the Great Lakes region, the application of sanctions in conflict situations in Africa and the strengthening of AU and UN peace support operations in Africa.
On West Africa and the Sahel, the growing threat of terrorism and violent extremism as well as unconstitutional changes of government will likely attract the attention of the two Councils. It is to be recalled that the United Nations, the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Group of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel) have jointly launched an Independent High-Level Panel on Security, Governance and Development in the Sahel in September to provide recommendations on how to effectively respond to the challenges facing the region. The High-Level Panel is chaired by the former President of Niger Mahamadou Issoufou and its report, due to come out early next year, will likely inform future discussions and how coordinated action by these organizations to address the multiple and complex challenges facing west Africa and the Sahel can be mobilized.
In terms of the situation in the Great Lakes region, the two Councils will have focused discussion on developments in DRC and the Central African Republic. The resurgence of the M23 Movement in eastern DRC and the subsequent tension between DRC and Rwanda has been a major preoccupation in recent months. The PSC held a session on the situation in August. The two Councils may discuss the ongoing regional initiatives through the Nairobi process under the auspices of the East African Community (EAC) and the Luanda mediation initiative under the leadership of the Angolan President João Lourenço Angolan President João Lourenço, current Chair of the International Conference for the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR). In the context of the Nairobi process, the EAC Heads of State have been trying to address the security challenge in eastern DRC in two tracks through the facilitation of political dialogue between the DRC and armed groups and the deployment of a regional force to fight armed groups which refuse to engage in the dialogue process. The EAC regional force is expected to be deployed for an initial period of six months. Burundi has already deployed a battalion in eastern DRC as part of the regional force and Kenya is expected to follow in the near future. On 6 July, President Lourenço hosted Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame in Luanda for talks which culminated with the adoption of a roadmap outlining steps to be taken by the two countries and the region to address the security situation in eastern DRC.
In Central African Republic, the implementation of the 2019 political agreement and the Luanda roadmap adopted by the ICGLR remains critical. The republican dialogue promised by President Faustin Touadera following his reelection took place in March 2022 but it was boycotted by several opposition parties and civil society groups. One of the controversial issues during the republican dialogue was a proposal for revising the constitution which was rejected by opposition parties and civil society representatives. However, the government has been organizing public demonstrations in support of amending the constitution through a referendum. This led to the formation of a committee to draft a new constitution but opposition parties and civil society groups continue to oppose this move. Subsequently, the initiative was also challenged before the Constitutional Court, which rejected proposals seeking to extend term limits as unconstitutional. Local elections are expected to take place early next year for the first time in several decades but funding has been a major constraint. The security situation in the country also remains very fragile and reports about gross violations of human rights and conflict related sexual violence are a major concern. These issues are likely to elicit discussion at the annual consultative meeting.
Regarding the application of sanctions, the AUPSC and the African regional mechanisms have been calling on the Security Council to lift the sanctions imposed on some African countries. Examples in this respect include the Central African Republic and South Sudan. Accordingly, the three African members of the Security Council (Gabon, Ghana and Kenya) have been raising this issue. This has impacted recent negotiations on extending sanctions regimes resulting in the abstention of African members on votes renewing the sanctions on some African countries. For example, last May, Gabon and Kenya abstained the resolution renewing the arms embargo and travel and financial sanctions on targeted individuals. This is expected to be a controversial topic during the annual meeting. While some Council members support the African members on this issue, several others do not necessarily share the same view.
Recently, there has been renewed interest regarding the financing of AU led peace support operations in both Councils. It is to be recalled that African members of the Security Council had proposed a draft resolution in December 2018 to advance the issue but the US threatened to block it using its veto power. In 2019, South Africa tried to facilitate progress but the AUPSC called for suspension of this effort until it comes up with a common position on the matter. Since then, a draft common position paper has been in the works but there seems to be an urgent need to finalize it in light of the 31 August Security Council presidential statement. This is going to be critical as efforts continue to push for a concrete outcome following the upcoming report of the Secretary-General in April. Unlike 2018, there appears to be an interest on the part of the Biden administration to make progress on this issue.
Baring major disagreement, it is expected that the two Councils will adopt a joint communique building on last year’s annual consultative meeting that succeeded in issuing the joint communique promptly. The AUPSC Committee of Experts, who already travelled to New York in preparation for the annual meeting, are expected to hold consultations with their Security Council counterparts on 11 October 2022 to finalize the draft which covers the above-mentioned topics.
Development and deradicalization as levers to counter terrorism and violent extremism
Development and deradicalization as levers to counter terrorism and violent extremism
Date | 07 October 2022
Tomorrow (7 October), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1111th session at a ministerial level. The session is convened under the theme of ‘development and deradicalization as levers to counter terrorism and violent extremism’.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, African Cooperation, and Moroccan Expatriates of the Kingdom of Morocco, Nasser Bourita, is expected to preside over the session as the Chairperson of the PSC for the month of October 2022. Following an opening remarks by the chairperson of the month, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, will deliver statement. The Secretary-General of the Rabita Mohammadia of Ulema, Dr. Ahmed Abaddi, is also scheduled to make presentation while Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism, Vladimir Voronkov, is expected to deliver statement.
Tomorrow’s session becomes the 24th session of the Council dedicated to the issue of terrorism and violent extremism, making the item the most discussed thematic issue by the PSC since its operationalization in 2004. Seven of these sessions have been addressed at the ministerial or summit level, also showing the increasing high-level interest on the subject on account of the increase in incidents of terrorist attacks and its geographic expansion. Since the extraordinary summit held in Malabo in May 2022 on terrorism, the PSC met at a ministerial level on 23 September on the sidelines of the 77th session of UN General Assembly with a focus on strengthening the role of RECs/RMs in combating the scourge of terrorism.
The last time Morocco chaired the PSC, the 883rd session held at ministerial level focusing on the nexus between conflicts in general and development, it reaffirmed ‘the essence and fundamentals of human security, in line with the Common African Defense and Security Policy and the AU Policy Framework on Post-conflict Reconstruction and Development (PCRD), as a multidimensional notion of security encompassing socio-economic and political rights.’ As it did during that session, tomorrow’s session is also expected to emphasise ‘the need for the consideration and conception of an integrated, inclusive, holistic and multidimensional approach regarding the interdependence between peace, security and development, aiming at enabling the African Union and the RECs to respond effectively to the challenges imposed by conflict cycles in Africa’, albeit with a particular focus on addressing the scourge of terrorism.
Tomorrow’s session, among others, affords Council the opportunity to exchange views and share best experiences including from the Kingdom of Morocco, which is presented as a success story in the fight against terrorism. The first lesson is the multidimensional nature of Morocco’s counterterrorism strategy. According to Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2022 report, Morocco ranked 76th among countries impacted by terrorist threat globally, making it one of the safest countries in the world. What contributed for Morocco’s positive performance is not because the country is less targeted by terrorists, but because of its blend of counterterrorism efforts often described as ‘tri dimensional counterterrorism strategy’ —largely aimed at addressing terrorism threats through security, socio-economic development policies and religious education—adopted following the 2003 Casablanca bombings. The same report attributes Morocco’s success in fighting terrorism to the ‘country’s understanding of the threat; the interconnectedness of its counterterrorism methods; the application of combined soft and hard measures; the facilitation of information sharing practices; and the promotion of international cooperation as the sine qua non of counterterrorism’.
Indeed, unlike most previous engagements, tomorrow’s session shifts the focus away from the dominant hard security oriented policy approach towards the socio-economic and governance factors that make the emergence and expansion of terrorism and violent extremism possible. As outlined in various Amani Africa works (reports here and here), the dominance of the hard security approach to terrorism has crowded out investment in the political, development and environmental factors. Indeed, as demonstrated in our report, the year-on-year increase in the incident of terrorist attacks and the geographic spread of the threat highlight that it is not possible to win over terrorism by increasing throwing of weapons at it.
While security measures remain critical in addressing the immediate security threat posed by terrorists, it has become evident that no amount of force would fundamentally change the terrorism landscape in Africa without addressing the structural socio-economic and political deficiencies on which terrorism thrives. Amani Africa’s special report made the case that ‘the political and socioeconomic governance pathologies and the grievances and vulnerabilities that such pathologies produce on the part of the affected communities are the core conditions that open the space for the emergence and growth of terrorist groups.’ As such, ‘given the inadequacy of the security heavy approach to countering terrorism, it is of paramount significance that the PSC gives consideration for the AU and RECs to invest as much in the socio-economic, development, governance and humanitarian dimensions of the underlying and driving factors of terrorism as, if not more than, they invest in security-heavy instrument of counter terrorism’.
Taking the passing references in the various PSC outcome documents to socio-economic, political, environmental and humanitarian dimensions of terrorism and the 22 October 2021 report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission that admitted the imperative of moving ‘beyond predominantly military action to include soft approaches, by promoting inclusive good governance, accountability as well as socioeconomic developments’ a step further, our special report provided analysis on how this policy shift can be achieved. First, in territories affected by terrorism, this needs to focus on provision of life saving assistance for the displaced and those facing food insecurity and the creation of conditions including through the implementation of protection measures for the return and rehabilitation of IDPs as well as the provision of psycho-social support that is tailored to and in harmony with the traditions and practices of affected communities. Second, investing in the rehabilitation of and providing support for the expansion of existing sources of livelihoods and making them more economically and ecologically sustainable and productive. Third and fundamentally, the rolling out of legitimate local governance structures along with enabling them in the delivery of key social services including health care, access to water, education and justice. Additionally, it is of particular significance that the AU PSC in its engagement on the theme of terrorism engages bodies such as Department of Health, Humanitarian Affairs and Social (HHAS) Development, African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) and the African Development Bank (AfDB). In terms of deradicalisation, attention should be given to the use not only of counter-terrorism narratives and sensitization measures but also political and diplomatic instruments such as negotiation and reconciliation that provide pathways for the reintegration into and peaceful participation political and social life of society by members of society recruited into the ranks of terrorist groups.
The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communique. Council may reiterate its grave concern over the rising tide of terrorism and violent extremism in Africa. Recognizing the different factors associated with terrorism such as governance deficits, socio-economic challenges, and marginalization, Council may emphasize the need to adopt a multidimensional comprehensive counterterrorism strategy that combines security and law enforcement, socio-economic development policies, and counter-radicalization and de-radicalization programs to tackle the scourge in a holistic and sustainable manner. The PSC may reiterate its request of 883rd session for the AU Commission, to ‘further enhance the collaboration and coordination between the different departments within the AU Commission and AU Specialized Agencies to support the PSC, taking into account the interdependence between peace, security and development, whilst carrying out its mandate.’ In this context, Council may emphasize the need for fully harnessing the role of African governance and developmental institutions such as the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR) AUDA-NEPAD, the AfDB and AU Department of HHAS in addressing the governance and socioeconomic challenges. The PSC may also call for effective implementation of the AU Policy Framework for Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development (PCRD) and the mobilization of the role of the PCRD Centre. Finally, Council may take tomorrow’s session as an opportunity to follow up on some of its previous decisions regarding terrorism and violent extremism, notably the development of a comprehensive Continental Strategic Plan of Action on countering terrorism in Africa as well as the establishment of the Ministerial Committee on Counter Terrorism (16th extraordinary summit on terrorism and unconstitutional changes of government held in May 2022), the formation of counterterrorism unit within the African Standby Force (PSC 960th session), establishment of a Sub-Committee on Counter-terrorism (PSC 249th session), and the establishment of an AU Special Fund for Prevention and Combating of Terrorism and Violent Extremism (Assembly/AU/Dec.614 (XXVII)).