Situation between Ethiopia and Somalia
Situation between Ethiopia and Somalia
Date | 17 January 2024
Today (17 January) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council is set to convene a session on the situation between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Following the opening statement of the Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Amma A. Twum-Amoah, Permanent Representative of Ghana to the AU, Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) is expected to brief the PSC. Representatives of Ethiopia and Somalia are also expected to make statements.
This session was not on the program of work of the PSC. The convening of this session came in the context of the tensions escalating between the two countries after the announcement of an MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a territory that declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but received no recognition from any member of the international community.
It was on 1 January 2024 that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi signed the MoU. According to reports, this deal will grant Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next five decades, where it plans to construct a naval base. Ethiopia currently relies on Djibouti as a major trade partner, as 95 percent of Ethiopia’s imports and exports pass through Djibouti. Addis Ababa has indicated its strong desire for ways to diversify its access to the sea.
Somalia deemed Ethiopia’s latest MoU with Somaliland as a threat to its territorial integrity. In response, Somalia recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia. Amid the nationalist fury that this development triggered, Somalia officials pronounced their determination to go to war in defence of the territorial integrity of their country. Somalia has also sent requests to the AU and the United Nations (UN) Security Council (UNSC) to convene meetings on the issue.
Rather than the deal on access to the sea for Ethiopia along the Somaliland coast on its own, the main centre of contention that sparked the tension seems to be the report that in exchange for access to the port of Berbera, Ethiopia would look to recognize Somaliland as an independent country at some point in the future. If indeed this were to happen, Ethiopia would end up being the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent state.
Apart from bringing the relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia to near breaking point, the situation is also fuelling regional tensions. Somalia’s President announced that his country is willing to enlist the support of anyone willing to help the country secure its territorial integrity.
The regional body, Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) called for an Extraordinary Summit to be hosted by Uganda on this situation on 18 January. It is to be recalled that IGAD Executive Secretary issued a statement on 3 January expressing deep concern about these developments between the two countries and calling on the IGAD leaders to be seized with the matter. On 16 January, it is reported that Ethiopia sent a letter to the Chairperson of IGAD, Djibouti, indicating its inability to attend the summit due to short notice and prior commitments.
Regionally, Djibouti, which is also the Chairperson of IGAD, issued a statement calling for respect for territorial integrity of all member states of IGAD. The AU Commission Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat also issued a statement on 3 January calling for calm and mutual respect to de-escalate the simmering tension. Additionally, Mahamat’s statement stressed ‘the imperative to respect unity, territorial integrity and full sovereignty of all African Union member states including the Federal Republic of Somalia and the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.’
Further from the region, the European Union (EU) stated ‘the importance of respecting the unity, the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia pursuant of its constitution, the Charters of the African Union and the United Nations.’ The Organization of Islamic Cooperation and Arab League also expressed similar views, stating the need ‘to abide by the rules and principles of good neighbourly relations’ and to ‘respect the sovereignty of [neighbouring] countries and not to interfere in their internal affairs’.
As Somalia pushes for the convening of UNSC session, there is pressure on the PSC to provide guidance for the African 3+1 members of the UNSC and set the tone for a possible UNSC meeting. Today’s meeting is accordingly meant to enable the PSC to play its part within the framework of its mandate in the maintenance of peace and security in Africa as set out in the Protocol establishing it.
Apart from the concern about the escalating situation getting out of hand and leading to armed confrontations, members of the PSC are also concerned about the risks of this situation undermining the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), to which Ethiopia is a major troop-contributing country. It is also widely recognized that the presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia contributes to putting a check on the terrorist group Al Shabaab. At the same time, the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland and the nationalist fury it unleashed can easily be instrumentalised by Al Shabaab for its recruitment efforts. Al Shabaab also issued a statement rejecting the MoU and threatening attack against Ethiopia.
Although the exact form of the outcome remains unknown as we go to press, if previous practice of the PSC is any guide, the expected outcome of the session would be a communiqué. The PSC may express its grave concern about the escalating tension between the two countries and emphasize the need for maximum restraint on the part of the two countries to ensure that the situation does not descend into confrontation. The PSC is also expected to welcome the statement issued by the AU Commission Chairperson on 3 January and in that respect urge respect for the principle of territorial integrity of member states which is one of the principles enshrined both in the Constitutive Act establishing the AU and the PSC Protocol. The PSC may also call for a high-level diplomatic effort to avert further escalation and find avenues for peaceful resolution of the situation.
Monthly Digest on The African Union Peace And Security Council - November 2023
Monthly Digest on The African Union Peace And Security Council - November 2023
Date | November 2023
In November, under the chairship of the Republic of Djibouti, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC), had a scheduled program of work consisting of seven sessions.
THE ROLE AND PLACE OF THE EXECUTIVE COUNCIL ON AU DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES
Amani Africa
31 December 2023
INTRODUCTION
Launched in July 2002, with the vision of ‘an Integrated, Prosperous and Peaceful Africa, driven by its citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena’, the African Union (AU) aims to promote development, socio-economic advancement, peace and security, human rights and democracy, and regional integration. The AU is organized as an international organization that strives to execute and fulfil its mandate through policies and decisions that it adopts. In the landmark special research report on AU decision-making actors and processes, AU decisions and decision-making actors are classified into legislative, executive and judicial/quasi-judicial. One of the key policy and decision-making bodies of the AU is the Executive Council.
Provisional Program of Work for the Month of January 2024
Provisional Program of Work for the Month of January 2024*
Date | January 2024
Ghana will be chairing the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) in January 2024. The provisional programme of work for the month envisages five sessions, of which three will address country/region specific issues whereas the remaining two will have a thematic focus. All of the sessions planned for the month will be taking place at the ambassadorial level. The PSC also plans to undertake a field visit to Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, on 27 and 28 January.
The first session of the month is scheduled to be held on 8 January. The session will assess the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. The recent origin of this crisis goes back to the June 2023 legislative elections which secured a majority of 54 parliamentary seats for a coalition led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC) rather than the parties affiliated with the president of the country. PAIGC’s victory was followed by a sequence of events including detention of key personalities in the government particularly the Economy and Finance Minister and the Secretary of State for Treasury. On 1 December, the situation erupted into armed confrontations between the Presidential Guard and the National Guard. Claiming that this incident constituted an attempted coup, on 4 December, President Umaro Sissoco Embalo of Guinea-Bissau dissolved the National People’s Assembly (NPA), an act apparently not consistent with the Constitution. The president then immediately appointed new commanders of the National Guard and new representatives within the interior and defence ministries. The AU Commission Chairperson in a statement of 5 December expressed concern on the situation in Guinea Bissau, including the dissolution of parliament and called on ‘the government and national stakeholders… to respect the Constitution.’ Similarly, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in the communique of its 64th ordinary session, while condemning the violence that took place on 1 December, called for ‘the full respect of the national Constitution and …quick restoration of all national institutions.’ In a 21 December statement, the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General also called on ‘all parties to respect the Constitution’. The proposed session under PSC’s chair-ship of Ghana, ECOWAS member state, affords the PSC the opportunity for discussing the unfolding constitutional crisis in Guinea-Bissau and how the AU can contribute towards both the prevention of the situation from further deteriorating and the restoration of constitutionality through respecting separation of powers by including what ECOWAS called ‘quick restoration of all national institutions’, which essentially means the reversal of the dissolution of the NPA.
On 23 January, the PSC will convene its second session of the month to consider and endorse the ‘Report on the Activities of the Peace and Security Council and the State of Peace and Security in Africa’. In line with Article 7 of the PSC Protocol and established practice, having considered the report, the PSC will submit it to the 37th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly scheduled to take place in mid-February 2024. As always, the report is expected to provide details of both the various activities that the PSC undertook over the course of 2023 and an assessment of Africa’s peace and security landscape during the reporting period.
The third session is expected to be held on 25 January and will be committed to PSC’s bi-annual consideration of the half-year report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa. Following from the 1165th session when the PSC considered the Chairperson’s report on elections conducted in the continent during the first half of 2023, the forthcoming session is expected to consider the report on elections conducted during the second half of the year – July to December 2023. In addition, the report is also expected to provide information on upcoming elections taking place in 2024, with a focus on those expected to be held during the first half of the year. Some of the critical elections from the second half of 2023 that could be expected to feature in the report and thus generate some discussion in the PSC are the Central African Republic’s (CAR) and Chad’s constitutional referendums conducted on 30 July and 17 December 2023 respectively, as well as the very recently concluded general elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) held under contested circumstances. In addition to Burkina Faso whose presidential election is expected to take place in 2024 as per the transition calendar, other two upcoming elections that may be highlighted in the Chairperson’s report and discussed by the PSC include the presidential elections in Comoros and Senegal, both slated to take place in the first quarter of 2024.
The PSC’s filed mission to Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, will be its next activity after the session on 25 January. It is to be recalled that last February, the PSC scheduled to undertake this mission but was unable to proceed due to a lack of collaboration. Planned to be undertaken on 27 and 28 January, the field mission could serve as an opportunity for the PSC to engage with the interim regional government of Tigray, civil society actors and members of displaced communities currently hosted in the region’s capital, Mekelle, on the status of implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and other key ongoing concerns.
On 30 January, the PSC will convene its fourth meeting of the month to consider the report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) and the renewal of the force’s mandate. At its 1126th session convened on 12 December 2022, the PSC renewed MNJTF’s mandate for one year starting from 1 February 2023. Aside from renewing the force’s mandate which would expire on 31 January 2024, the PSC is also expected to reflect on the overall situation in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), with a specific focus on trends in the threat of terrorism, illicit transfer of arms and status of MNJTF efforts aimed at degrading Boko Haram.
The last session of the month is scheduled to be held on 31 January. It will be committed to an updated briefing on the peace process in Ethiopia, specifically the monitoring, verification and compliance mechanism (MVCM) and consideration of the report of the PSC on its field mission to the Tigray region of Ethiopia. While the signing and launch of AU’s MVCM on 29 December 2022 had been an important step to contribute towards the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, the PSC has not had a chance to receive updates on the progress made and challenges encountered in the implementation of the peace agreement and the work of the MVCM. Only one meeting – the 1158th session held on 15 June 2023 – discussed the situation in Ethiopia in 2023, within the context of the session’s broader engagement on the situation in the Horn of Africa. The coming meeting hence presents the opportunity for the PSC to receive key updates including on its previous request for the AU Commission to ‘undertake a needs assessment for the extension of the deployment of the MVCM’.
The PSC Committee of Experts (CoE) is also scheduled to meet during the month, on 9 and 10 as well as on 16 and 17 January. On each of those occasions, the focus will be to consider the ‘Report on the Activities of the Peace and Security Council and the State of Peace and Security in Africa’, before it is tabled to the PSC on 23 January as elaborated above.
The provisional programme of work for the month also indicates in the footnote that there may be a session on the situation in Sudan. The fast deteriorating security, human rights and humanitarian situation warrants a follow up by the PSC including on the implementation of its decision of the 15th November 2023 ministerial session, which, among others, stipulated the establishment of a high-level panel and tasked the AU Commission with the responsibility of constituting the Panel.
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*Post-script: In the revised program of work (PoW), the session on Guinea-Bissau has been indefinitely postponed, as informed by the AU Commission. In addition, PSC’s Field Mission to Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, and the updated briefing session on the peace process in Ethiopia have been removed from the PoW, following Ethiopia’s notification that the timing was inconvenient for facilitating the Mission. On the other hand, the revised PoW has introduced three more sessions: updates on the selection process of the African Youth Ambassadors for Peace (30 January), consideration of the AU PCRD Policy (31 January), and commemoration of Africa Day of Peace and Reconciliation (31 January).
Amani Africa wishes to express its gratitude to the Australian Embassy in Ethiopia for the support in the production of this Insight on the Monthly Programme of Work of the AU Peace and Security Council
THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS IN AFRICAN UNION'S DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES: AGENDA SETTERS, PARTICIPANTS, COLLABORATORS AND SHAPERS?
Amani Africa
30 December 2023
INTRODUCTION
The African Union (AU) recognizes at its founding the ‘need to build a partnership between governments and all segments of civil society.’ Most significantly, one of the principles of the AU as enunciated in the Constitutive Act is ‘participation of African peoples in the activities of the Union.’ These provisions constitute the normative foundation for the role of civil society organizations (CSOs) in the decision-making processes of the AU. As noted in the Amani Africa, Mapping of AU Decision-Making Actors and Processes, Special Report of April 2023, decision-making “refers to the ‘how’ and ‘who’ of the adoption of policies, laws, resolutions, regulations, recommendations and guidelines.”