The Internal Institutional Setup and Working Processes Shaping the Relationship between the AUPSC and the UNSC
Amani Africa
28 | December, 2019
The establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) under the 2002 Protocol to the AU Constitutive Act on the Establishment of the PSC 1 (PSC Protocol) and its launch in 2004 2 has transformed the peace and security landscape of the continent. Most notably, among others, it has changed the role of international engagement in the maintenance of peace and security in Africa. The PSC Protocol, in defining the principles governing the maintenance of peace and security in Africa, attributing leading role to the PSC and defining how the PSC interfaces with international actors, sets the expectations of the continent on the parameters of international action, including through the United Nations (UN), on peace and security in Africa.
The Internal Institutional Setup and Working Processes Shaping the Relationship between the AUPSC and the UNSC
Amani Africa
28 | December, 2019
The establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) under the 2002 Protocol to the AU Constitutive Act on the Establishment of the PSC 1 (PSC Protocol) and its launch in 2004 2 has transformed the peace and security landscape of the continent. Most notably, among others, it has changed the role of international engagement in the maintenance of peace and security in Africa. The PSC Protocol, in defining the principles governing the maintenance of peace and security in Africa, attributing leading role to the PSC and defining how the PSC interfaces with international actors, sets the expectations of the continent on the parameters of international action, including through the United Nations (UN), on peace and security in Africa.
Briefing on the situation in Somalia
Amani Africa
Date | 13 December, 2019
Tomorrow (13 December) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will receive a briefing on the situation in Somalia and the activities of AMISOM. As
Somalia is gearing up to hold elections next year, the PSC is expected to make a thorough assessment of the
progress made and the challenges that lie ahead. The AU Peace and Security Department and the Special Representative of the AUC Chairperson to Somalia and head of the AU Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), Francisco Madeira, are expected to brief the PSC. During the introductory part of the session, following the practice of the PSC the Inter‐ Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), particularly Ethiopia as the Chair of IGAD and African Member of the UN Security Council (A3), the UN office to the AU (UNOAU) and the European Union (EU) will also make their statements at the session are expected to make a statement.
Tomorrow’s session is expected to address various issues including the preparations for the 2020 national elections, the recent political and security developments in Somalia and the implementation of AMISOM’s mandate under the revised CONOPS adopted in May 2019. The 2020 election is a key milestone in the stabilization and peacebuilding of Somalia and the holding of “one man, one vote” election in the country for the first time in fifty years will be historic. In this regard, finalizing the Constitutional Review, adopting the amended Federal Constitution and the electoral law, allocating the necessary resources for the election and creating a safe and secure environment for the conduct of the election are considered priority areas. At the Somalia Partners Forum held on 2 October 2019, in Mogadishu, Somalia has committed itself to expediting the constitutional and legislative processes with a view to adopting the electoral laws this month and the Federal Constitution in June next year, while international partners agreed to provide the necessary support in this regard.
However, the prevailing tension between Mogadishu and the regions has been an obstacle in establishing broad political consensus in the country. There is concern that the situation may escalate ahead of elections.
Therefore, easing these tensions will be very critical to ensure the smooth and peaceful conduct of the election and lay the foundation for ensuring democratic and inclusive politics. This requires that constructive dialogue takes place between Mogadishu and the regions to
overcome differences and resolve the prevailing stalemate. Indeed the most recent agreement reached between the Federal Government of Somalia and the leadership of Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a (ASWJ) is a positive step. The meeting between President Farmajo and two former Presidents, Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud and Sheikh Sharif was welcomed by international partners as a step in the right direction and further engagement was
encouraged among key stakeholders at national and regional levels to ensure broader consensus on the holding of peaceful and credible elections. In terms of the regional dynamics, tensions were also rising between Somalia and Kenya in relation to their maritime dispute.
The meeting of President Farmajo and President Kenyatta in Nairobi last month to improve strained relations was very much welcomed. This is believed to have positive impact not only for the bilateral relations between the two countries but also the peace and security of the wider region.
The security situation in Somalia remains volatile. Al‐Shabaab remains a serious threat continuing to create havoc and mayhem but, according to AMISOM, there has been a decline in Al‐Shabab’s activities over the last three months owing to a number of factors, including an
increase in the number of lethal strikes against Al‐Shabaab by partners, with the arrival of the Somali rains, which made it difficult for the group to operate and the successive operations conducted jointly by Somali security forces and AMISOM. This is said to have forced the group to concentrate its activities in and around Mogadishu. The mortar attack on the Airport zone where AMISOM Headquarters and the UN compound are located is a case in point. Ensuring public security and safety in preparation for the election is absolutely vital and AMISOM is said to have repositioned itself to do that and also strengthen its support to the Somali electoral
security task force.
The implementation of the Somali‐led Transition Plan has been a matter of priority. The progress made in reforming the Somali security forces and in undertaking joint operations with AMISOM, including the recovery of some territories from Al‐Shabab and handover of forward operating bases to the Somalia National Army has been considered encouraging. However, the pace of implementation has been rather slow and there is a long way to go before the Somali National Army is ready to take over full and effective security responsibilities from AMISOM. Therefore, there is need to undertake the necessary assessment to make sure that the drawdown of AMISOM forces in accordance with resolution 2472 (2019) is calibrated with the evolving situation on the ground.
The humanitarian situation in Somalia has also been a cause of concern. According to the UN, heavy seasonal rains triggered floods affecting thousands of people in the southern part of the country. The situation is taking a heavy toll on the people. Farmlands and other infrastructures have been destroyed. There is need for urgent humanitarian response to reach out to people in the worst affected areas. In terms of Somalia’s long‐term peacebuilding needs and its development agenda, Somalia is making progress in its discussions with the international financial institutions towards securing a debt relief. The progress in its reform efforts, including in improving public financial management and revenue generation, as well as adopting a new National Development Plan have been recognized as positive steps by international partners. At the Somalia Partners Forum, it has agreed with international partners on “a Mutual Accountability Framework to narrow their joint focus to priority areas for action and resources in order to achievThe expected outcome of the meeting is a communique.
The PSC is expected to take note of the progress made in Somalia and underscore the need to expedite preparations to ensure a peaceful, free, fair and credible election next year. The Council may reiterate its concern over the prevailing tensions between the Federal Government and the regions and urge the Somali stakeholders to exert every possible effort to resolve their differences through constructive dialogue and negotiation with a view to building the necessary political consensus towards election 2020. In this context, it may welcome the meeting between President Farmajo and the two Former Presidents. It may also welcome the easing of tensions between Somalia and Kenya following the meeting of the leadership of the two countries.
The Council may express concern over the volatile security situation in Somalia and the continued attack by Al‐Shabaab. In this regard, it may underline the need to create a safe and secure environment for the holding of peaceful election next year. It may also point out the need for a comprehensive assessment of the security situation in the country in light of the conditions‐based gradual withdrawal of AMISOM in line with the relevant security council resolutions and the decisions of the AUPSC. The Council could express concern on the humanitarian situation and call for the mobilization of international assistance in support of people who are affected by the recent flooding. It may, on the other hand, express satisfaction with the progress made in the reform efforts and the positive momentum built in the discussion with the IFIs with regard to debt relief.
Briefing on conflict prevention, early warning and mediation in Africa
Amani Africa
Date | 12 December, 2019
Tomorrow (13 December) the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to receive a briefing on conflict prevention, early warning and mediation in Africa. Fred Ngoga, Head of the Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Division (CPEWD) of the AU Commission is expected to brief the PSC. Representatives of Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and Regional Mechanisms (RMs) may also make interventions.
The briefing is expected to focus on two main issues. The first will be horizon scanning of threats to peace and security in Africa. A second possible aspect of the briefing may be an update on the status of development of conflict prevention tools.
One of the key principles that guide the operationalization of the PSC mandate is ‘early response to contain crisis situations to prevent them from developing into full‐blown conflicts.’ The PSC Protocol highlights the Council’s responsibility to ‘anticipate and prevent conflicts’ particularly through ‘early warning and preventive diplomacy’. Conflict prevention and early warning is also one of the key objectives of the AU articulated in the Constitutive Act.
However, during the last briefing on early warning, at its 669th session the PSC has indicated its concern with regards to the ‘continued cases of denials to objective/credible early warning signals of looming crises, thereby undermining the conflict prevention capacity of Council’.
Similarly at its 12th retreat held in June 2019 in Rabat, the PSC stressed challenges to conflict prevention including insufficient funding and resources, lack of political will of member states and sensitiveness around the categorization of looming crisis. Towards enhancing the capacity of the Council it has ‘decided to increase the regularity of briefing sessions with the AU Commission, on issues relating to looming crises with a view to assembling the relevant information for appropriate action’. Tomorrow’s session will also be an opportunity to deliberate on some of these challenges that are preventing the scaling up of early warning mechanisms for early action.
Within this context, the horizon scanning is expected to assess the security situation in the five regions and may identify the major threats witnessed across the continent. It may particularly look into the broad areas of root causes, structural factors and drivers of conflict including terrorism and radicalization, climate change, election, democratization, governance, respect of human rights and the rule of law as well socio‐economic inequalities and marginalization.
As part of its Border Program, CPEWD’s presentation may also highlight the tension that may be arising from border demarcation and delimitation disputes.
In terms of country and regional focus, it may pay particular attention to situations which are experiencing not only looming crisis but also countries and regions that may be experiencing relative stability while confronted with risks of relapse to violence. In this regard, the briefing may shed light on the developments in various countries, which are currently in political transition or have recently signed peace agreements or are in mediation processes including countries such as Sudan, South Sudan and CAR. It may also pay particular attention to close to twenty countries that will be holding elections in the coming year.
The briefing may also look into the cross‐border and regional aspect of conflict prevention. It may offer an analysis on regions that are experiencing conflicts and crisis emanating from intertwined and compounded factors affecting multiple countries. The presentation may also provide an assessment of key trends and analysis on changing dynamics and complexities surrounding the causes of conflicts.
In the light of the longstanding challenges of effective operationalization of the conflict prevention mandate of the PSC, it would be of interest for PSC members to look into the modalities for a more effective engagement in conflict prevention. In this regard, consideration can be given to Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol that provides for the possibility of the PSC holding informal consultations. As a meeting format that has not been adequately explored, informal consultation particularly at the level of Committee of Experts of the PSC avails useful avenue for considering early warning briefings and exploring options for preventive action.
After the overall overview of peace and security risks and threats, the presentation in its second part may look into conflict prevention tools and update on their progress. This will also be an opportunity to promote and enhance the utilization of continental and regional mechanisms by policy makers.
Article 2 of the PSC protocol stipulates the need for the Council to be supported by the various mechanisms including Continental Early Warning System in fulfilling its mandate. CEWS primarily consists of two components: (i) the continental observation and monitoring center, known as “The Situation Room” and (ii) the observation and monitoring units of the Regional Mechanisms for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution (RMs), which collect and process data and are linked directly to the Situation Room. To this end, it will be critical to deliberate on mechanism that enhance the synergy and close collaboration between the AU and RECs/RMs in providing up‐to‐date and relevant information to the PSC as well for the PSC itself to strengthen its working relations with the regional entities.
Considering the ongoing AU institutional reform process and increased PSC engagement with RECs/RMs, Council members may wish to recall the commitments made during PSC’s 12th retreat which tasked the PSC jointly with RECs/RMs policy organs to establish ‘criteria for assessing looming crises and emerging situations… to ensure … common understanding of parameters, benchmarks and principles that define entry points for interventions’.
The presentation by the division may also provide an update on the activities of Panel of the Wise as a key pillar that is established for preventive diplomacy and in order to support the efforts of the PSC and those of the AUC Chairperson, particularly in the area of conflict prevention. The briefing may provide an update on the recently concluded annual statutory meeting of the Panel of the Wise as well as the AU Special Envoy Representatives. PSC members may also follow up further on the work of the Special Envoys considering the decision at its 12th retreat ‘to hold each year a PSC session during which AU Special Representatives/Envoys and AU High Representatives will provide briefings’.
The presentation may also provide an update on thematic issues related to Gender, Peace and Security Program and the work of FemWise as well as their harmonization with other gender centered mechanisms in the Commission including the Office of the Special Envoy on Women, Peace and Security and the Gender Directorate.
As part of the Youth for Peace program activities the presentation may also raise the developments around the ‘Study on the Roles and Contributions of Youth to Peace and Security in Africa’, which was recently considered by the PSC.
The expected outcome of the session was unknown during the production of this ‘Insight’. The PSC may urge member states to strengthen their efforts at the national level as well as support the efficiency of early warning and prevention mechanisms at AU and RECs/RM level. Towards operationalizing its mandate, the PSC may also urge for the strengthening of the reporting tool of the Commission through enhancing of the systematic provision of early warning reports. The PSC may also urge the Commission to provide regular briefings and horizon scanning to equip members with relevant data for effective decision‐making. To this end, the PSC may consider adopting informal consultation as the format for a more regular and systematic consideration of early warning and conflict prevention sessions including through the convening of such informal consultations at the level of Committee of Experts.
